Prior to 1998 indications were that world cereal demand would have grown from 1,773 to 2,511 million tons between 1993 and 2020 (a 42 percent increase) and that demand for cereals consumed by humans would have grown by 354 million tons, a 39 percent increase. As a result of the Asian economic crisis, however, cereal demand will fall in comparison with the baseline scenario, but by relatively small amounts. Total world cereal demand in 2020 is expected to decline by 74 million tons (3 percent) in the severe-crisis scenario and by 19 million tons (0.8 percent) in the moderate scenario. In Asia, the contraction will be slightly larger: 4.1 percent and 0.9 percent respectively. Falling rates of income growth will increase the demand for food cereal in China and other East Asian countries but decrease this demand in South and Southeast Asia. Larger changes are likely for feed cereal demand, which will decline by 60 and 17 million tons in the severe and moderate scenarios respectively. All developing Asian countries will decrease their feed demand in the severe scenario except for Malaysia and South Korea. In these two countries higher prices for livestock resulting from currency depreciation will drive up livestock production more than decreasing income growth will push it down. The Asian crisis will have far larger repercussions on the global supply, demand, and markets for livestock products, which are more price- and income-sensitive. In the pre-crisis baseline scenario, global meat demand was expected to increase by 64 percent, with Asian demand accounting for 61percent of this increase, and Chinese demand alone accounting for 42 percent. But if a severe-crisis scenario unfolds, world meat demand will be 8 percent below the baseline trend (2 percent below in the moderate scenario) and developing countries in Asia will be hit hardest. Demand for meat in China, for example, will plunge by 23 percent, and the Chinese share of the increase in global meat demand will drop 10 percent. Indonesian and Philippine meat demand will decrease by almost one-third. The biggest drop in livestock demand in developing countries will be for pig meat (19 percent), followed by poultry and beef, 13 and 8 percent, respectively. Although the contraction in the demand for meat in Asia could be large, it will not threaten the region's increasingly important role in global food markets. Asia's share of global meat demand will fall by 7 percent, to 35 percent, under the severe scenario, and by only 2 percent under the moderate scenario. Global meat demand will still be dominated by developing countries. They will account for 59 percent of the demand for meat even in the severe scenario.