Animal production in Asia is concentrating around the major population centers. Reithmuller (1998) outlines several reasons for this: most high income earners, who consume the largest share of livestock products, live in the cities; the transportation of animal products requires more advanced technology than the transport of animal feeds; some Government regulations have discouraged investment in transport technologies; Government regulations often make it difficult to transport livestock products between regions; the cost of carrying animal feeds to meet the requirements of animals in intensive production facilities is high since these are high bulk, low value commodities compared to meat or milk; land zoning regulations and environmental regulations are often lax and have not prevented the establishment of animal feed and animal processing facilities in heavily populated areas; roads in rural areas may not be of sufficient standard to provide year-round access to markets (this problem is most likely to arise during the wet season) and agro-industrial processing industries are often located near the major population centers (so as to be near the potential workforce and market) and because their byproducts are often used as livestock feed, feedlot and intensive livestock farms are likely to be located near to them.
It has been noted by de Haan et. al. (1997) and Steinfeld et. al. (1997) that land degradation of semi-arid lands in India is caused by a complex set of factors involving farmers and their stock, crop encroachment in marginal areas and fuel-wood collection. Land tenure, settlement, and incentive policies have undermined traditional land use practices and contributed to degradation through overgrazing, while the introduction of livestock to deforested land ultimately pushes ranching into the remaining rainforest frontiers. This also is the case, to a very limited extent, in South East Asia.
One of the consequences of deforestation is significant bio-diversity loss, and on the opposite side of the land-use mirror, in densely populated areas of Asia, animal waste production exceeds the absorptive capacity of land and water. Consequently, continuous nutrient importation results in over-saturation of nutrients with a series of negative implications on the environment, including, inevitably, bio-diversity losses along with groundwater contamination, and soil pollution. Nutrient surplus situations are a result of human population pressure and livestock density, access to markets, and feed and fertiliser incentive policies, aggravated by lack of regulatory response.
Land with low production potential includes unirrigated areas with arid and semi-arid climates, or unreliable rainfall areas with steep slopes or poor soil or a combination of these features. Such areas tend to be ones where environmental degradation is most severe and the farming system has disintegrated. In the first step, livestock, often large ruminants, can no longer be maintained on the farm, so the nutrient and farm power balance runs into a widening deficit and finally disinvestment occurs as natural resources degrade.
Also in the developing countries, slaughterhouses release large amounts of waste into the environment, polluting land and surface waters as well as posing a serious human health risk. Because of weak infrastructure, slaughterhouses often operate in urban settings where the discharge of blood, offal, and other waste products is uncontrolled. Steinfeld et. al. conclude by saying they consider the move to vertical integration involving intensive production units may be due to several reasons not all of which are readily identified publicly by the society in which they develop.
Steane (pers.com.) considers the development of improved efficiency and the uptake of modern technology are crucial in the mixed farming systems if agriculture is to achieve any real semblance of sustainability, social equality, alleviation of poverty, and food security. This is not to say that industrial-type production should not be developed but simply that the modus operandii and the location need to be subject to much more responsible regulation than has been seen in Asia to date. There are examples of successful intensification by using groups of farmers to produce the livestock for a particular market outlet or company. The realisation of the need to involve local participation is a major step towards systems that provide benefits to all sectors and contribute to food security.
Also, de Haan et. al. (1997) and Steinfeld et. al. (1997) contends that although livestock production interacts mostly with the environment within the confines of a production system, in addition, livestock affect some global commons, which are essential parts of our support system. For example, bio diversity is affected indirectly through concentrate feed requirements and the resulting intensification and expansion of crop agriculture. Related environmental effects may be disguised because livestock production and feed production are geographically separated and only linked through international trade. Furthermore, livestock and their waste products emit important quantities of greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide, contributing to the phenomenon of global warming. The major greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Of these, livestock have the most significant effect on methane production. The global average methane concentration is increasing at about 0.8% per year and livestock and manure management contribute about 16% of total annual production. Methane omission by livestock results from the fermentation of grass by microorganisms in the stomachs of ruminants (cattle, sheep, and goats). Monogastric species, such as pigs and chickens, cannot digest cellulose and produce relatively low omissions. Methane production is greater per unit of ruminant (a) when animals are unproductive (so relatively more fodder is digested for maintenance of the animal rather than for production of milk or meat), and (b) when the diet consists of very low quality, fibrous foods such as straw. Low productivity and poor feed are typical in the farming systems in the project's sustainable development area. Stored liquid manure also produces methane, but this is a problem in factory farming systems such as large dairy or pig farms. Manure deposited by grazing animals or handled in dry form produces much less methane, and so this is not significant in the farming systems in the project area. In any case, about 80% of livestock methane production is produced by digestive fermentation. The production of methane is not, perhaps, a major factor influencing livestock development policy. However, as businesses and countries may be required to do environmental audits in future, policy makers should be aware of the issues. They also point out that livestock can also have beneficial effects on the environment e.g. by grazing, livestock improve species wealth, and the integration of livestock into mixed farming systems can improve water infiltration and the recharge of groundwater reserves. The biggest contribution of livestock to the environment, however, is to be seen in providing the main avenue for sustained intensification of mixed farming systems. This is bound to continue even when crop and livestock activities specialise into separate activities as they often do under developed market conditions. This resource-enhancement and resource-sparing effect continues to be underestimated because it is indirect. Without this environmental function, intensification of agriculture could not have taken place and current populations could not be sustained.
Increased attention to livestock/environment interactions is therefore of critical importance in sustaining the world's resource base. These interactions have been the subject of much conjecture, often lacking objectivity and over-simplifying complex relationships. Such scarcity of informed decision-making has often exacerbated the negative effects. For example, the misperceptions regarding overgrazing in the arid areas led to measures which controlled stocking rates and movements, thereby causing more, rather than less, land degradation. A better understanding of the complimentarily of domesticated and wild animals would have led to greater species wealth and the improved wellbeing of local human populations.
In conclusion, de Haan et. al. (1997) stress that finding the balance between increased food production and the preservation of the world's natural resources remains a major challenge. It is clear that food will have to be produced at less cost to the natural resource base than at present.
The publications of Steinfeld et . al. (1997) and de Haan et. al. (1997) form an excellent consensus of outcomes from studies supported by a number of donors with global participation, thus providing a broad, densely analytical assessment of the interactions of livestock and the environment.
Steane (pers. com.) considers that while biotechnology may offer many potential opportunities for major steps forward there is a clear tendency for developing countries to over emphasise the potential contribution of such technologies given the limitations which exist (and which may not be resolved prior to the attempt to exploit the biotechnology).
Countries need to ensure the proper evaluation of the different potential technologies. This is likely to be achieved by independent assessment, and yet such independence is becoming less available as science and scientists become ever closer involved with direct commercial exploitation of results.
Linking the needs of farmers, consumers, and other potential beneficiaries to an increasing array of biotechnology applications is a challenge to decision-makers in developing countries. To meet this challenge, information and discussion are required regarding identified national needs, wants, priorities and policies, estimations of financial requirements, integrating modern bio-technology methods with ongoing agricultural research, and the extent to which public- and private-sector agricultural research embraces biotechnology.
A growing number of countries are implementing national programs in agricultural biotechnology. It is to be hoped that these programmes adequately assess how the needs and priorities for biotechnology have been determined in relation to the overall agricultural objectives, whether the necessary guidelines are in place for the safe application of biotechnology, whether the national intellectual property rights laws are adequate to promote international collaboration and investment in this area, and the likely financial requirements for research in agricultural biotechnology.
Riethmuller (1998) considers that the continuing progress of increased integration of many Asian economies with the world economy means that regional and international developments will influence the performance of industries in these economies, including the livestock industries. Although there have been some changes in agricultural protection in high-income countries, there are still many tariff and non-tariff barriers to foreign produced commodities. Domestic political considerations in countries such as the USA and the European Union are likely to be given higher weight by policy makers than the effects of their policies on producers in other countries. The decision by the US Government in May 1998 to reactivate its program of export subsidies on dairy products and poultry is an example of the type of policy measure that can affect international agricultural markets. Similarly, while bans such as that by the European Union on China's broiler meat exports may benefit other chicken meat exporters (such as Thailand), any removal of the ban could see that advantage disappear. Governments everywhere have always subsidised their farm sectors in many ways, including basic research and development, production and export. Subsidies may be transparent or hidden, direct or indirect. There is no indication that subsidies will be easy to handle even under the liberalised agreements proposed by the WTO. Determining fairness will be difficult, contentious, time consuming and labour intensive.
The livestock industries in Asia, in particular Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, have become increasingly dependent upon imported breeds, often developed in countries such as the USA, Australia, New Zealand and the European Union. Their use has been associated with a displacement of native animals that are often better suited to the environment of these countries. The seriousness of this particular trend is illustrated by the projection reported by de Haan, Steinfeld, and Blackburn (1997) that by 2015, the US Holstein population could have an effective population (gene pool) size of 66 animals. In the Asia Pacific region, it has been estimated that 105 domestic animals (out of 996) are at risk. Breeds at risk are those with less than 1,000 breeding females or less than 20 males and for which there are no conservation programs in place. In the poultry industry of Indonesia, native chickens have become less important than introduced species.
The economic crisis reversed this trend as currency depreciations in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand increased the cost of rearing animals and also the purchase cost of imported animals, as well as increasing rural unemployment. However, this also provided an incentive for farmers to slaughter native animals, further reducing the population of these animals.
The drive in Southeast Asia to satisfy the increasing demand for animal protein has resulted in many changes to common agricultural practices. The intensification of some of the animal production industries, combined with urbanisation, global changes and the increasing ease of travel/transport has produced environments that have led to an increase in impact of formerly uncommon diseases or even the emergence of new diseases. Thought is now being given to the relocation of animal production systems away from where they have developed peri-urbanly to an area-wide integrated approach. These man-made relocations will significantly affect the disease determinants and can, if well understood, be used to significantly reduce the occurrence of disease in both animals and humans.
"Emerging" infectious diseases can be defined as infections that have newly appeared in a population or have existed but are rapidly increasing in incidence or geographic range. Specific factors precipitating disease emergence can be identified in virtually all cases. They include ecological, environmental, or demographic factors that place animals in increased contact with a previously unfamiliar microbe or its natural host, provide potential pathogens with a novel host, or favour increased dissemination. These factors are increasing in prevalence in Asia because of the rapid development of livestock industries in the region. This increase, together with the ongoing evolution of viral and microbial variants and selection for drug resistance, suggests that infections will not only continue to emerge but also that the rate and effect will probably increase.
Zoonoses are diseases transmissible from animals to man. There are over 150 recognised zoonoses worldwide. They are distributed widely and occasional infections occur with deadly consequence, for example the serious outbreak of Nipah virus that occurred in Malaysia in 1998-99.
These serious outbreaks can create a conflict of interest between the scientist who look for evidence that a disease agent exists in a country or region, where it is not expected to be, and the regulator who has to deal with the public health or economic consequences of a newly revealed situation. It does not seem to matter whether it represents a new but spreading disease or one being recognised for the first time in a previously stable situation. The national and international reaction to the discovery of many agents in countries where they have not previously been noted all too often does not take cognisance of the fact that the actual risk to humans and/or domestic/productive animals may not be changed. Fear and overreaction are sure to be the result the risk is not quickly and correctly assessed especially when this is compounded by uniformed and sensational media coverage.
Globalisation of food supplies is affecting outbreaks of food-borne illness, and this is an increasing problem in human health. The organism responsible typically expresses several antibiotic-resistant genes. For example, recently a Vancomycin resistant Enterococcus has been detected in chicken meat imported into Japan from three different areas around the world. It is now possible to produce a food product in almost any part of the world, process it for distribution, and for it to be consumed far from its production locality. Thus, we can expect increasing numbers of outbreaks caused by organisms that were previously restricted to areas of endemicity.
The interaction of determinants (host, environment and agent) that bring about a disease situation in animals and man is a system that is continually changing. When we are faced with a complex system there is a tendency to want to summarise and break down the view of the system into parts that can be comfortably dealt with: however, we must be careful. As Lotfi Zadeh the father of Fuzzy Logic put it so nicely "If the only tool you have is a hammer everything starts to look like a nail."
Epidemiologists try to assess complex situations by using probability theory using yes/no occurrences, ignorance of outcomes, and statistics. Probability estimates change with increasing information: they tell us whether something will happen. Possibility estimates tell us whether something can happen. Usually as you decrease the possibility of an event you will decrease the probability but the reverse is not necessarily true. Thus if an event is impossible it will have zero probability. However, if an event is improbable it could still be 100% possible.
Recent disease outbreaks in Australia and Malaysia due to Hendra virus and Nipah virus are good examples of the doctrine of possibility. Both viruses have probably existed in fruit bats in the Australasian area for hundreds of years and yet only recently have they been detected in other species. It is possible that both viruses may have moved out of the host (fruit bat) to other species on previous occasions but never become established in the new host. One hypothetical reason would be that possible new hosts had lower population densities than they do today. However, we now know that it is possible: three times, to my knowledge, in Australia for Hendra virus (Brisbane 1994, Mackay 1995 and Cairns in 1999), horses were the new hosts. We now have evidence that Nipah virus related to Hendra virus has crossed into pigs in Malaysia and looks to be well established there in pigs. That is, pig-to-pig transmission has occurred on a grand scale.
To better respond to the changing situation of livestock keeping in Asia every country in the region must establish systems for disease surveillance and response. This would include four strategic objectives: surveillance, diagnostic tests, response and interdisciplinary research.
Surveillance
There is a need to strengthen existing surveillance systems so that changes in the incidence of known diseases are routinely reported and information on the emergence of new or unusual diseases is readily available to the ministries in other nations.
Diagnostic Tests
There is a need to develop or adapt simpler, more cost-effective procedures to determine the causes of disease. Ideally, these procedures should be simple enough for use in the field when laboratory facilities are not available.
Response
There is a need to enhance the capabilities of Government agencies and existing disease-specific networks to respond to recognised outbreaks identified through improved surveillance.
Interdisciplinary Research
There is a need to support the capacity to undertake control and prevention strategies in the region.
These serious outbreaks can create a conflict of interest between the scientist who looks for evidence that a disease agent exists in a country or region, where it is not expected to be, and the regulator who has to deal with the public health or economic consequences of a newly revealed situation. It does not seem to matter whether it represents a new but spreading disease or one being recognised for the first time in a previously stable situation. The national and international reaction to the discovery of many agents in countries where they have not previously been noted all too often does not take cognisance of the fact that the actual risk to humans and/or domestic/productive animals may not be changed. Fear and overreaction are sure to be the result when the risk is not quickly and correctly assessed especially when this is compounded by uninformed and sensational media coverage.
Globalisation of food supplies is affecting outbreaks of food-borne illness, and this is an increasing problem in human health. The organism responsible typically expresses several antibiotic-resistant genes. For example, recently a Vancomycin resistant Enterococcus has been detected in chicken meat imported into Japan from three different areas around the world. It is now possible to produce a food product in almost any part of the world, process it for distribution, and for it to be consumed far from its production locality. Thus, we can expect increasing numbers of outbreaks caused by organisms that were previously restricted to areas of endemicity.
Riethmuller (1998) considers that lack of information is a significant impediment to the efficient operation of an economy in the sense that it results in the economy failing to maximise its output. At the national level, despite the rapid growth in the livestock industries of Asia there is a dearth of reliable information on these industries.
Government statistics on livestock numbers, particularly for ruminants, are sometimes of dubious quality while statistics on animal slaughtering do not provide complete coverage since animals slaughtered for wet markets or outside registered slaughterhouses may not be included in the statistics or may be under-reported. Information on the ages and sex of large ruminants that have been processed in general seems not to be available. This increases the difficulty of arriving at consistent population estimates.
At the consumer level, estimates of demand elasticities are few and far between, making it difficult to arrive at forecasts or projections that can be used with any degree of confidence.
Information on technical parameters of livestock industries, with the exception of the intensive poultry or pig meat producing farms, is also extremely limited and often too old to be of use.
Information on feed resources is incomplete. Analysts therefore experience difficulties in arriving at informed judgements about the feed requirements of the livestock industries or the technical efficiency of the industry.
Information on the livestock sector is difficult to gather because livestock until quite recently have not been a particularly important part of the overall economy, although they have been important at the village level. Hence, governments have allocated few resources to monitoring these industries, as they considered that scarce resources provided a higher payoff in other parts of the economy. Riethmuller ended by saying that this problem could be compounded by there being a large number of government bodies and non-government organizations that have an interest in livestock industries particularly at the village level.