BAHAMAS

COUNTRY REPORT: FORESTRY OUTLOOK STUDY FOR THE CARIBBEAN

by

Christopher Russell

CURRENT STATUS OF THE FORESTRY SECTOR

CONTEXT

The Bahamas environment

The Commonwealth of the Bahamas archipelago consists of 35 major islands, 700 cays and some 2 400 rocks occupying a land surface of some 11700 km², and dispersed over some 325 000 km² of ocean. The Commonwealth is situated on the South Western edge of the Atlantic Ocean between longitudes 72 degrees and 80 degrees west and latitudes 20 degrees and 27 degrees north. The islands are separated from Florida (USA) in the west by the Florida Straits, whilst to the south from Cuba by the Old Bahama and Nicolas Channels.

The climate is subtropical with warm summers (May - November) and mild winters (December - April) and characterised by the Northeast Trade Winds. The archipelago lies within the North Atlantic Hurricane Belt with a risk season from June to November. Rainfall averages from 750 mm to 1 500 mm, with most rain from May to June and a marked dry season from November to April. Temperature ranges from 20 degrees Celsius in winter to 30 degrees Celsius in summer.

The 325 000 km² of submerged banks that make up the Bahamas comprises a pure calcium carbonate platform of level bedded shallow water carbonates. The islands are generally flat with no rivers but with occasional dunes and beach ridges sloping into plains and marshes. The highest point in the country is a mere 63m a.m.s.l, located at Mount Alvernia, Cat Island.

Political situation

The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is an Independent, Free and Democratic Sovereign Nation, having gained full Independence from Gt. Britain on July 10^th 1973. However, the Bahamas retains its ties with the Commonwealth of Nations and also retains the British monarch as its head of state. The Bahamas enjoys a written Constitution and a parliamentary system of government. The Constitution, the supreme law of the land provides for a Parliament which consists of the Queen as Head of State, whose representative in the Bahamas is the Governor General, a nominated upper chamber called the Senate and an elected House of Assembly. The Constitution also provides for a Supreme Court and a Court of Appeal. Appeals from the Court of Appeal are made to the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council in the United Kingdom.

The House of Assembly has 40 members elected by adult suffrage every five years. The executive body, the Cabinet, consists of the Prime Minister and fourteen Ministers, including the Attorney General, and is responsible to the House. General Elections were held in March 1997 in which the incumbent Free National Movement (FNM) party retained the Government by winning an overwhelming majority of seats (35 seats) as opposed to five seats won by the Opposition Progressive Liberal Party. One opposition member has since resigned and formed a new opposition party. The upper chamber, the Senate has 16 members of which nine are appointed by the Governor General on the advice of the Prime Minister and four by the Leader of the Opposition after consultation with the Prime Minister.

Economy and economic policy

Since 1992, the government of the Bahamas has initiated measures to reform and revive the economy. Progressing towards a point where development planning became more than just the preparation of a public capital expenditure programme, but where planning is more the formulation and execution of a consistent set of interrelated policy measures designed to achieve specific economic, social and environmental needs of the Bahamian people. In this regard, the government embarked on a programme of privatisation and divestment of assets; which included divestment of hotels, a commercial bank, private sector participation in selected utilities, liberalisation of domestic air transport and broadcasting, reforms in foreign investment and trade regimes and capital market strengthening.

This government driven policy initiative has had a dramatic effect on the economic growth and development of the Bahamian economy. According to the Central Bank of the Bahamas Annual Report, the Bahamian economy continued to grow at a healthy but moderate pace in 1998. The Inter - American Development Bank (IDB) estimated that real GDP grew by 2.5% in 1998 compared to 3% in 1997. GDP at market prices was estimated at $4.12 billion in 1998, compared to $3.96 billion in 1997. Using these figures the 1998 GDP per capita was $13 702 compared to $14 029 in 1997. Tourism and offshore banking continue to be the main economic activity of the country, with the agricultural and industrial sector being comparatively small. The Tourism sector being the main engine of the economy generates approximately 50% of GDP and directly or indirectly employs some 50 000 people, representing some 50% of the work force of the country. The Ministry of Tourism estimated that more than 3.3 million vacationers arrived in the Bahamas in 1998, (down 3.1% since 1997). Air arrivals were down at 1.305 million, while sea visitors recorded a smaller decrease of 2.1% to 2.041 million. Total tourism expenditure increased from $631.1 million in 1981 to approximately $1.407 billion in 1998.

According to the Central bank of the Bahamas the banking and finance sector accounted for roughly 15% of GDP. Employing some 4 082 persons, 95.4% being Bahamians in 1998, with a total wage bill estimated at $148 million per year. The majority of the banks and trust companies are engaged in the management of assets of wealthy individuals. Combined with their utilities, administrative costs and other overheads including foreign exchange total expenditure is in the region of $300 million per year. The National debt of the Bahamas has been accrued to $1.733 billion in 1998, an increase of $34.5 million (2%) over 1997, according to the Central Bank of the Bahamas' Quarterly Economic Review, December 1998.

Environmental, social and economic importance of trees and forests

The Government of the Bahamas has recognised the significance of contributions of trees and forests to the overall wellbeing of the Bahamian economy. To this end the government has incorporated the protection and enhancement of the local environment and its biological resources into the national development planning process. Further, the government has mandated key public agencies to formulate policies, programmes and plans at the conservation and protection of plants, trees and forests. Notably, the Forestry Unit, Department of Lands and Surveys has been mandated to implement the governments' national forest policy, which calls for the sustainable management and conservation of the forest resources of the Bahamas. The Conservation Unit, Department of Agriculture has been mandated to conserve present Bahamian biodiversity (including plants and trees) and prevent further extinction of indigenous species. The Department of Physical Planning, under Protection of the Physical Landscape legislation provides conservation of certain native protected tree species that are endangered. Lastly the Bahamas Environment, Science and Technology Commission (BEST) situated in the Office of the Prime Minister has been given the task to develop for the Bahamas a National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan. The key objective being, to provide an overview of the role of biodiversity (including trees and forests) to the social, economic and environmental wellbeing of the Bahamas.

FOREST RESOURCES OF THE BAHAMAS

Description of the forestry sector

The Forestry Sector in the Bahamas can best be described in terms of the goods and services being derived from the national forest. In the past the sector relied primarily on the exploitation of natural forest resources for wood products, such as pulpwood to produce paper and sawlogs for constructional timber.

The first license to exploit the pine forest resource commenced in 1906 and continued unabated until the early 1970s when all licenses and concessions were relinquished to the government. The activity contributed significantly to the national economy in terms of employment and the development of infrastructure in the Family Island communities.

Since that period the focus of the forestry sector has shifted from one of forest exploitation to that of the multipurpose functions of the Bahamian forests. This transition began in the late 1980s and into the 1990s. It has now been accepted that the pine forests, coppice forests and mangrove forests provide in addition to commercial forestry, the reservation and protection of freshwater resources, maintenance of the hydrological cycle, soil conservation, conservation of biological diversity, bush medicine, microclimate regulation and climate. Additional functions of these forest include recreation and ecotourism development, aesthetics and natural scenery, opportunities for agricultural and agro-forestry development, and the establishment of national park and protected areas.

There is no dispute among the stakeholders that the above mentioned functions best describes the forestry sector in the Bahamas.

Forestry resources of the Bahamas

The forest resources of the Bahamas has been classified into three distinct types, namely pine forests, coppice forests and mangrove forest. Approximately 80% of the forest resources are on state lands (Crown Land) with the remaining 20% in private holdings.

Forest classification

Pine forest: The pine forests (Pinus caribea var. bahamensis) are considered the most productive and commercially viable forest resources, comprising an estimate 213 861 ha and found on four of the most northerly islands on the Bahamas, namely, Abaco, Andros, Grand Bahama and New Providence.

Coppice forest: The coppice hardwood forests are found predominantly in the Central and Southern Bahamas and have never been inventoried. They comprise various hardwood species harvested in the past for sawlogs. Some noted valuable species include Buttonwood, mahogany, Gum elemi, Ratwood, Black Ebony, Braziletto, Horseflesh, Lignum vitae and Red Cedar.

Mangrove forest: The mangrove forest ecosystems occur predominantly on the lee shores of most Bahamian Islands. The total area of wetlands is estimated to be some 4 286 km². The major wetlands include the north coast of Grand Bahama Island, western Andros Island, The Marls of Abaco and the Bight of Acklins Island.

National forest inventory

In 1986, the Government of the Bahamas with financial support from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) embarked on a "Forestry Development Project" to be executed by the FAO. The project's aim was to determine the pine forest resource, to propose appropriate management and to assist in the development of management capability.

The primary objectives to achieve the overall aim were to; 1) carry out a forest inventory survey of selected pine areas covering some 141 000 ha on the islands of Abaco, Andros and Grand Bahama; 2) prepare a management plan for these pine forest; and 3) provide training for selected forestry technicians to strengthen institutional capacity. Table 1 reveals the extent of pine forest areas in the selected areas and land ownership status.

The inventoried pine forest areas were subdivided geographically and by forest status by island, and block. A summary of stocking and mean tree measurements by block is set out in Table 2.

An analysis of the data indicated reasonable but variable stocking over Blocks 1 to 7 in Abaco, but patchy and inadequate stocking in blocks 8 to 15. On Andros island in Blocks 1 to 19 stocking was variable but adequate. Blocks 20 to 25 were considered overstocked but with low mean diameters. Grand Bahama indicated an adequate range of stockings with variable diameters. The ages in the sixth column were derived from sample tree counts, and generally correspond to what would be expected with past exploitation and lack of management.

Table 1: Forest areas, growing stock and growth rates measured in the 1986 forest inventory

All islands

Notes: 1 = 70 - 100%, 2 = 50 - 69%, 3 = 11 - 49%, 4 = 0 - 10%, S = Swamp, BH = Bluehole

Table 2: Block summary: stocking and mean tree measurements

Table 3 records mean standing volume by island and strata as well as the basic cubic footage per acre. The total volume over bark was in excess of 165 million cubic feet but this covered a wide range of dimensions and ages.

Table 3: Mean standing volume - 1986

An assessment of incremental growth reflected crop variation and could not be used in stand or volume projections. In northern Abaco mean annual increment (m.a.i.) sampling varied between 18 cu. ft/acre and 106 cu. ft/acre. In northern Andros between 5 and 120 cu. ft/acre and in Grand Bahama between 3 and 26 cu. ft/acre.

Forest management and conservation

Due to past exploitation, the pine forest lacked management thus resulting in a crop of mixed densities, mixed ages and generally poor incremental growth. As a consequence, the options of pine forest management is limited due to the silviculture of the tree, present state of the crop, the economics of managing and the value of the crop to possible end uses. Here the option is to produce sawlogs with cordwood or cordwood (pulpwood) alone.

Basic to either option is the introduction of management with controlled burning to reduce damaging wildfires and a pre-commercial thinning to reduce stocking to 600 stems per acre (s.p.a.).

A sawlog rotation requires an intermediate commercial thinning at 20 to 25 years to produce sawlogs at 40 to 50 years. The cordwood/pulpwood rotation requires no further thinning on a 25 to 30 year rotation.

In a Technical Report "Options for Forest Industries in the Bahamas, 1986", sawmilling, fuel for power generation, utility poles, posts and charcoal were recognised as providing the more feasible options for industrial development.

The unique features of the Bahamian forests (pine, coppice hardwood and mangrove) and its associated environment, including the blue holes and sink holes scattered throughout the forest, including native plant and animal life (biodiversity) provides for a pristine setting to explore the ecotourism market. Selected areas of forest have been designated as conservation forest to achieve this purpose, to preserve the full diversity of plant and animal species in undisturbed areas. Areas of special scientific interest and unique biodiversity have been declared National Parks under the manFOREST PRODUCTION, TRADE AND CONSUMPTION

The National demand, trade and consumption

There are currently no formal primary forest industries in the Bahamas since forest exploitation ceased in he late 1970s. Consequently the Bahamas relies heavily on imports of forest products to sustain the demand for goods and services. The sector contributes little to GDP.

The Department of Statistics Trade Statistics of significant timber and timber products for the Bahamas for 1998 are given in Table 4. The statistics reveal the extent to which the Bahamas is dependent upon timber and timber product imports, with an estimated value to the tune of B$157 000 000.00 in 1998.

Tableagement of the Bahamas National Trust.

4: Bahamas imports in timber and timber products, 1998.

OTHER FORESTRY PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

Woodfuel and wood energy

There is no formalised mechanism to quantify the extent of the local production of woodfuel and the use of wood for energy. While table - 4 reveals the extent of fuel wood and charcoal imports into the Bahamas at $281 201 and $105 044 respectively, there is a small but significant number of illegal charcoal operations in the country where data on production is unknown. In many locations throughout the Bahamas, the use of fuelwood and charcoal for energy, cooking, heating, etc is a common occurrence.

The foreseeable trend in the use of woodfuels is that charcoal production locally (illegally) will remain steady, whilst the import of charcoal is to increase as locals are becoming more inclined to barbecue during holiday periods.

Trees outside the forest (TOF)

There has been no effort to quantify the extent of trees in the urban centres of the larger population islands in the Bahamas. The passage of Hurricane Floyd in September 1999 severely damaged and destroyed native and introduced trees in the urban areas of New Providence Island. To address the destruction the government embarked on an island wide plant beautification programme with the importation of 10 000 exotic trees (coconut palms, royal palms, etc) to be planted in rural, urban and coastal areas. Trees purchased from local growers complemented this amount.

Non-wood forest products

There is considerable potential of the local forest at providing non- - forest products. The local pine forest offers great potential in the maintenance of the hydrological cycle and watershed management. This is particularly significant on the larger northern islands where the natural pine forests is the major source of fresh water in the form of fresh water lenses beneath these forests. Based on data from the Land Resources Studies of the Bahamas in the 1970s the thickness of these lenses vary from 1.5m to 18m on some 13 islands containing approximately 7,646 million m³. It is not known to what extent the stands of pine forests influences water lenses build-up and storage.

The forest resources offer great opportunity for game hunting of wild animals (quail, wild hogs and pigeons) by tourists and locals alike. Evidently the indigenous forest resource offers opportunities for agriculture and agro - forestry development. In this respect the best arable lands are situated on lands forested with natural pine forests, particularly in the northern Bahamas. Large areas of this arable land are currently under citrus cultivation and other cash crops for domestic and export markets.

Small farmers are encouraged to cultivate cash crops intermixed with forest trees and other agro-forestry systems. The natural forest which fringes these agricultural developments provide much needed shelter from strong winds and assists in reducing the effects of catastrophic storms and hurricanes that the country may experience during the summer months.

The forest resources offer potential with respect to the conservation of biodiversity, ecotourism, aesthetics and natural beauty. From the multiform vegetation with the pine forests of the north, gradually extending southward through hardwood coppice to scrub vegetation in the drier areas of the south; flowers of unimagined beauty; fruits - familiar and exotic; orchids and bromeliads and medicinal plants. A rich and varied bird life in associated with our forest includes an extensive resident population, winter residents and migratory birds such as the Kirtland warbler, the rare and endangered Bahama parrot, endemic only to the Bahamas. Land mammals include the endangered hutia, wild boars, wild donkeys and horses; reptiles include the endemic iguanas, Bahama boa, sea turtles; butterflies and other insects.

The Ministry of tourism in this respect has formulated a National Ecotourism Strategy for the Bahamas. The purpose of the document is to formulate and implement a national framework for the development and promotion of sustainable tourism and a competitive Bahamian ecotourism product. A significant component of the ecotourism product is the use of the natural environment (e.g. forests and its associated ecosystem). Because of the importance of the natural environment, it includes a focus on biological and physical features and emphasis natural resource conservation and management.

An ever-increasing attribute of the natural forest is that it provides for a library for scientific research. Very little scientific research has been undertaken in the native forest and there is great potential and opportunities in all aspects the local environment.

FORESTRY POLICIES, LEGISLATION AND INSTITUTIONS

National forest policy

In November 1998 the Government of the Bahamas formally agreed to and approved its first official National Forest Policy. The Policy states the following:

The Government of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas, in recognition of the importance of Forestry as a vital facet of land use, is committed to the conservation, management and development of forest in the national interest. In keeping with its commitment to provide for the protection and sustainable development of forestry resources of the Bahamas, the Government established a Forestry Unit in the Department of Lands and Surveys.

The Forestry Unit is answerable to the Minister Responsible for the management of the forest estate of the Bahamas. It is to be accountable to the Minister for the stewardship of the legally constituted forest estate.

The Forestry Unit is responsible for the following:

_ supervision of the designated forest estate, to increase the yield of sawlogs and other forest products on a sustained basis;

_ providing fire protection and developing management systems compatible with the conservation and protection of fresh groundwater resources in consultation with the Government agency responsible for water and sewerage;

_ developing sustained wood resources for the promotion of local forest industries;

_ managing designated forest conservation areas for amenities and recreation, and for the protection of rare, fragile or threatened ecological associations in consultation with the Department of Agriculture;

_ encouraging tree planting or forest development on suitable private lands;

_ making recommendations to the Government for the licensing and promotion of sound forest development proposals;

_ making recommendations for the development and the implementation of a comprehensive sustainable forest research programme to provide a sound technical base to improve management and development, and in particular to identify silvicultural data directed toward improving the financial yields of species important to the national economy; and

_ making recommendations for the definition and revision of forest royalty of stumpage rates to ensure that the Government derives reasonable returns from licensed rights.

The Forestry Unit of the Department of Lands and Surveys has begun to implement the provision of the Forest Policy.

Forestry legislation

In 1996, the Government requested the forestry institution to review the 1987 draft forestry legislation, based on a process of consultation with all stakeholders. The draft legislation was amended to take into account the new "environmental conservation ethic" in addition to the incorporation of additional areas of hardwood coppice forests into the schedules for reservation purposes.

The Department of Legal Affairs was asked to make the necessary legal amendments to the Bill (A Bill for an Act to Provide for the Conservation and Protection Of Forests). The Bill awaits Government's consideration prior to its presentation to Parliament for debate and enactment.

Once enacted the Forestry Law will provide the legal basis for the Forestry Unit to implement the national forest Policy and other forestry related programmes and activities.

Private and public sector involvement in forestry

The Forestry Unit continues its linkages with other Public and Private sector agencies that directly relate to or impact the forestry sector. Those agencies of special note include:

_ Conservation Unit - Department of Agriculture: The Department is responsible for the administration of various Acts which impacts the forestry sector, such as the Wild Birds Protection Act (1952), Plants Protection Act (1916), Wild Animals Protection Act (1968), and CITES of which the Bahamas is a member. The Conservation Unit liases with the Forestry Unit on a regular base in undertaking its responsibilities.

_ Department of Physical Planning: With the passage of environmental legislation ("The Conservation and Protection of the Physical Landscape of the Bahamas Act, 1997) the Department has responsibility for the regulation of excavations, mining and removal of protected trees. From this perspective, the Forestry Unit is called upon periodically in assisting the Department of Physical Planning in this respect.

_ Water and Sewerage Corporation: The majority of the land area where fresh water is located is on forestlands in the northern Bahamas. The administration of water resources and its conservation by the Corporation requires close coordination and cooperation between WSC and the Forestry Unit.

_ Bahamas Environment Science and Technology Commission (BEST): The BEST Commission is made up of representatives form both the Public and Private Sector to serve as the National Focal Point for national and international environmental matters. BEST is also charged to develop a National Conservation and Sustainable Development Strategy and to coordinate all matters relating to the Bahamas' participation in international conventions, treaties, protocol and agreement relating to the environment. In this respect there is great coordination and cooperation between the Forestry Unit and the BEST Commission.

_ Bahamas National Trust (BNT): The Bahamas National Trust (BNT), a non-profit quasi-government organization was established by an Act of parliament in 1959. Its prime objective is "...promoting the permanent preservation for the benefit and enjoyment of the Bahamas, of lands and tenements...and as regards lands and submarine areas... and animals, plants and marine life". (BNT Act, 1959). The Act also empowers the Trust to hold certain lands in trust and be inalienable. In this respect the BNT has designated some 12 areas as National Parks (terrestrial and marine) throughout the Bahamas in consultation with the Government of the Bahamas. There are direct relations between the BNT and the Forestry Unit in matters relating to the terrestrial national parks and other environmental related activities.

Investments in the forestry sector

Currently there are no formalised investments in the forestry sector. There are numerous illegal, unregulated harvesting of pine forest produce for charcoal production. However the passage of Hurricane Floyd through the Bahamas in September 1999 with its destruction and damages to the natural pine forest on Abaco Island, government is expected to grant approval for the commercial salvaging of all damaged pine trees on the island.

This development is expected to spark small commercial activities in the forest sector by means of creation of small forest industries, thus producing employment opportunities on the island; cumulating in the production of high added value forest produce to enter the local market.

Institutional arrangements and capacity for forestry

The Forestry institution was initiated in the Bahamas in 1952 when the post of Forest Supervisor was created under the then Crown Lands Office. The Crown Lands Office has since been re-designated, the Department of Lands and Surveys.

In 1985, a Forestry Section was established within the DLS with the objective to manage the forest resources of the Bahamas. With the approval of an official National Forest Policy, the Forestry Section has been re-designated as the Forestry Unit.

The present staff complement within the Forestry Unit comprises one Forest Officer who works full time on forestry matters, environmental matters and other Land management activities. The remaining staffs of one Forest Officer Assistant, one Forest Assistant III; and one Trainee Forest Officer do not work directly within the Forestry Unit but assigned to other tasks within the Department of Lands and Surveys.

In this regard it is clear that the Forestry Unit of the Department is grossly understaffed and ill equipped to perform the duties and responsibilities mandated by the newly approved National Forest Policy. The situation at present is one nearing a "crises" unless some relief is forthcoming in human resources, technical assistance, financial resources, and equipment and facilities.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE FORESTRY SECTOR

BACKGROUND TO THE OUTLOOK

The overall aim of the outlook part of the report is to provide a long-term perspective with 2020 as the target year. It will be desirable to have an indication of outlook in the short and medium term target years, 2005 and 2010; thus enabling policy makers and planners to identify short medium and long-term measures to bring about desirable changes in the right direction.

OUTLOOK FOR THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM

Assumptions

Present situation

The Administration of the FNM government since taking office in 1992 has pursued policies and strategies aimed at generating high levels of income and employment by maintaining sound fiscal policies and a fixed exchange rate peg to the U.S. dollar. This has attracted new investments in tourism, shipping and the construction sector, and further promoting the Bahamas as a competitive and well-regulated financial centre.

Since 1995 the strategy began to yield results. Sustained increases in incomes and economic activities have been experienced, unemployment has fallen sharpened and social indicators are among the highest in the Latin America and Caribbean region.

With respect to recent developments specifically in tourism, the country's main industry, the governments polices resulted initially in new investments (1994 - 96 totalling US$300 million (3-4% of GDP a year). Other sectors picked up during this period as well. Residential construction increased and the financial services sector continued to experience steady growth. Real GDP accelerated from less than 1% per year in 1994-95 to 4% in 1996.

The population of the Bahamas was estimated to be 289 000 at end -1997. GDP per capita and average household income were estimated at $US$14 450 and US$31 000 respectively at end-1998. Unemployment rate declined from 13% in 1993-94 to less than 8% in 1998. With no minimum wage the average wage rate for unskilled labour is about B$4 per hour. This has been rising by about 3-4% annually in recent years.

Future projections

With respect to policies to sustain this economic growth in the various sectors, the government of the Bahamas indicated that the economic benefits of the large investments in the tourism sector in recent years was now becoming fully manifested. The estimated growth rate of stopover tourists is expected to reach 8-10% for 1999 as a whole. Further, sustained growth would depend on the industry's ability to maintain competitiveness and profitability. Beyond 1999 in the short to medium term with the global demand for travel and other leisure services projected to grow at about 6-7% per year. A moderate expansion in the U.S. economy, improved air access and ample hotel capacity it is expected that the annual rate of real tourism expenditure could be maintained at about 4-5% over the medium term.

With respect to the financial sector, there was a continued strong interest on the part of banks and trust companies to shift their operations to the Bahamas due to its location, competitiveness, ready supply of skilled labour, the legal framework and the well regulated banking system. This was complemented by governments' policy of privatisation (beginning with the telephone and electrical companies) which is expected to stimulate further investments and economic activity and improve quality of services. On this bases and the assumption of steady demand for residential housing, shipping and other services it is anticipated that growth and employment prospects will continue over the short to medium term.

In the short to medium term, the government's fiscal monetary and external policies are to eliminate the central government deficit in 1 - 2 years and increasing savings and revenue. This to be achieved by selective increases in tax rates and the reduction or elimination of a number of tax exemptions, thus permitting a reduction in public service debt. The debt service ratio would not increase beyond 3%. The public external debt is expected to remain at about 8% of GDP, and net international reserves would be kept at a level equivalent to about 100% of reserve money. With an expected near budget balance in FY 2001/2002 governments' savings is expected to increase from 1½% of GDP to 3%. To achieve these objectives the government is committed to maintaining the fixed exchange rate link with the US dollar and adhere to its prudent fiscal policy stance.

Regarding government's expenditure it is expected in the short to medium term that there will be a limit in the growth of the wage bill and outlays on goods, services and transfers in meeting the target of containing growth in total expenditure to 20-20½% of GDP.

With respect to social and environmental policies the government allocated one third of the budget for FY 1999/2000 to the health, education and social sectors (compared to 27% in FY 1998/99). The bulk of these resources were used to upgrade the hospitals and clinics, better access to health, technical and vocational training; support for the aged, unemployed and disabled. It is envisioned that the governments' policies will continue in this direction in the short and medium term.

The government's policy for the environment remained focused on preserving ocean water quality and marine life, providing safe water supplies and improving waste management.

Expectations from the sector

Generally the economy of the Bahamas is expected to grow by approximately 2% per year in the short to medium term. In terms of the impact of this growth and development on the forestry sector there is expected to be a marginal change in various aspects of forestry development.

With respect to changes in forest area and forest cover conversion of pine forests to other forms of land use is expected to remain at 1000 ha/yr. The coastal areas in the coppice and mangrove forest areas are more prone to deforestation than inland areas, as all settlements on the Family Islands are coastal. There has been no attempt to quantify the extent of coastal deforestation or changes in forest cover. The designated land uses include agricultural development, residential subdivisions, industrial and commercial activities. Due to lack of scientific management and monitoring of the pine forest growth rates the growing stock is expected to remain constant in the short to medium term. Based on 1986 inventory data the total growing stock for the pine forest was pegged at 165 million ft3, covering a wide range of dimensions and ages. No attempts have been made to assess the growing stock since that time due to lack of resources.

The ownership of the pine forest resource is expected to remain 80% government and 20% private. The lack of adequate human and financial resources continues to plague the Forestry Unit in the execution and management of forestry development programmes. Without a firm government commitment and political will for forestry development it is unlikely that the situation will change significantly in the short, medium or long term. Governments' policies have focused attention away from investments in the public sector by means of privatising certain aspects and activities. Further, it appears that the role of the Forestry Unit will be that of a regulatory body as opposed to a "hands on operational entity".

Due to the passage of Hurricane Floyd in September 1999 with its direct hit on Abaco Island impacting some 148 797 acres of natural pine forest, a salvage operation is being considered by the government to remove all damaged and destroyed trees for possible conversion to forestry products. Time is of the essence with respect to the salvage operation being successful (5 months has since past) as signs of timber decay, insect attack and forest fires has begun to take their toll on the resource.

It is envisioned that following a successful two-year pine forest salvage operation by the private contractor the development of small-scale sawmilling industries is to emerge in the short term. This industry is expected to produce constructional timber of various dimensions, pulpwood, mulch, chips and pine bark for horticultural purposes, and other high value products (furniture, wood carvings, etc) for both the domestic and foreign markets.

In the medium term the industry is expected to expand to the other natural pine forest islands (namely; Andros, Grand Bahama and New Providence). As part and parcel to this projected development local people are expected to be employed in all aspects of the sawmilling exercise from logging and transport to conversion and processing. While the pine forest salvaging operation will eventually thin out the existing natural forest there remains the need to undertake further scientific systematic commercial thinning prescriptions to bring the forest to some form of normality and hence sustainable forest management practices.

As evident from the trade statistics in forest products derived from the Department of Statistics, the Bahamas depends entirely on forest products imports valuing some B$157 000 000.00 in 1998. This trend is expected to continue in the short to medium term. The expected emergence of small scale local forest industries, spinning of from the expected pine forest salvage operations on Abaco Island in early 2000 will contribute to the creation of a small niche domestic market for some forest products in the short term. It is not known to what extent this small niche market is expected to put a dent on the dependence of some imported forest products in the medium to long term, as these import markets are well established. Further, any locally derived forest produce has to be of high quality and cost effective to compete with the established markets for imported produce.

As mentioned earlier in this report, the average Bahamian has begun to appreciate all the other tangible and intangible benefits that can be accrued from the natural forest, and has placed high environmental and social values on the resource, such as recreation, ecotourism, conservation of biodiversity, aesthetics and natural beauty. In the medium and long term it expected that more Bahamians would take advantage of the intrinsic opportunities the natural forest can make to their wellbeing and overall national development.

Desirable scenarios

Whilst the economic position of the Bahamas looks bright and promising for the short, medium and long term, the same cannot be said for the forestry sector. In order to improve the situation, the government must focus more meaningful attention to the forestry sector. Specifically, to undertaking an analysis and evaluation of the potential of the resource for sustainable forest management; creating sustainable forest industries; employment opportunities, thus reducing the overwhelming dependence on forest products imports. Most significant is the enactment of comprehensive forestry legislation to provide the legal basis for the forestry Unit to carry out its policy mandate.

The forestry sector must be adequately equipped with the appropriate human resources to act as the regulatory body for forestry development in the Bahamas. The existing full staff complement of one professional forester is not sufficient, considering the extent and intrinsic values being placed on the forest resources of the Bahamas. In spite of the fact that he is not fully engaged in forestry matters, but shares his time with other land management responsibilities within the Department of Lands and Surveys. There is the need for at least two additional professional foresters and two trainees to make any meaningful attempt at regulating forestry development. Adequate and sustained financial resources must be made available to the Forestry Unit to undertake its monitoring programmes and other related activities.

The sectors outside the forestry sector must coordinate and cooperate more freely with the forestry institution and not work in isolation, as has been the case in the past. What is necessary is a meaningful dialogue between all stakeholders of the forests; namely the government, private sector, NGOs, civil society and donor agencies, to determine what is best for the future of all forests and forestry in the Bahamas and begin to implement policies, strategies, plans and programmes for change. To bring about the appropriate positive changes in the sector in the medium to long term period requires the will of all to make the changes happen and to be sustained.

CONCLUSIONS

Clearly the forestry sector in the Bahamas has been transformed from one of forest exploitation beginning in the 1800s and early 1990s to one of forest conservation and sustainable management, taking into account all tangible and intangible benefits that can be accrued from the natural forest resource.

Whilst the economy of the Bahamas continues to grow at rates in the range of 2% annually the forestry sector appears to have been marginalized in terms of receiving any meaningful attention from the policy makers by means of adequate annual budgetary provisions, human resources and the like. For a country that possess one of the largest natural pine forest resources (500 000 acres) in the Caribbean region; a resource which offers great potential for future economic activity; severely dependent on forest products imports valuing some B$157 000 000.00 in 1998; and given its size, population and wealth one can only question the reasoning for the lack of political will for sustainable forestry development.

Rather than take a reactionary approach to forest industry development, (e.g. proposed pine forest salvage operation for Abaco Island as a result of Hurricane Floyd damages) the government needs to be more proactive in this respect. Proactivity involves planning and implementing proper and prudent policy initiatives designed specifically for forestry development in coordination and cooperation with all stakeholders and international donor agencies, in the same manner as is undertaken for the other important sectors of the Bahamian economy such as Tourism and the Financial Services Sectors. Only then can we move toward a more desirable position of sustainable forestry development for the Bahamas.

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