Merilio Morell is an officer in FAO's
Forestry Policy and Planning Division.
He was the facilitator of the Delphi
exercise and compiled the results
presented
in this article.
A collective vision of the future as foreseen by a group of FAO staff members, obtained through a Delphi group communication process.
This article presents the opinions of a group of staff members from the FAO Forestry Department about forests and forestry in the year 2050. Through the Delphi method (see Box) the 12 individuals, from both FAO headquarters and the Organization's decentralized offices around the world, considered ten aspects of sustainable forest development, parallel to those taken up in the other articles of this issue of Unasylva: forest cover, conservation, plantations, wood energy, supply and demand, water, technology, information, international organizations and governance. This article reflects not a consensus but a joint vision of the collaborators, who participated on a voluntary basis. It expresses the opinions of the participants, and does not represent the official view of FAO.
In order to meet Unasylva's publication deadline it was not possible to continue the Delphi process through enough rounds to reach equilibrium; thus it should be noted that not all participants agree with all the points expressed here. The article should be considered a "work in progress": the Delphi process - and the debate that it has stimulated - is ongoing.
The Delphi method The Delphi method was originally developed in the 1950s by scientists at the Rand Corporation as an iterative process for forecasting futures. Typically, an interest group is assembled, through either correspondence or face-to-face discussion, to assess issues of mutual concern. While the individuals in the group share a common interest (the subject of the Delphi exercise), they usually represent different points of view. Each member of the group is asked to comment on a particular set of issues. A facilitator analyses the individual comments and produces a report documenting the response of the group. The individuals then compare what they said with the collective response and have an opportunity to comment anonymously on the issues again. A new group report is generated and the process is repeated. This process continues until agreement is reached or the group agrees to disagree. |
Between 2010 and 2020, forest cover will become stable at the global level. However, since tropical deforestation will continue until then (albeit at a reduced pace of 4 million to 6 million hectares per year), the stabilized forest cover will be less than the present level. There will certainly be differences by region and by forest type. Boreal forest cover will be stable at today's limits. In North America, Western Europe and all developed countries, forest cover will have increased substantially. In the Asia and the Pacific region the area of natural forest cover will have diminished, with the largest loss occurring in Southeast Asia; however, because of plantations and trees outside forests, tree cover in the region may remain the same or may increase. In South and Central America forest cover will be slightly higher than at present, but natural forest will be substantially reduced, especially in the Amazon Basin. African forests in general will have diminished only slightly, but Central Africa will see a large reduction of its forest areas.
The conservation of soil, water and whole ecosystems will become increasingly important. It will be central to development and a matter of international negotiations with important economic implications. The concept of nature protection and conservation as part of the collective responsibility of humanity will be largely accepted as a result of strong environmental education programmes and the pressure of environmental activism.
Networks of natural forest areas under conservation status will continue to grow. As pristine and natural forest will have been exploited in all except remote and inaccessible areas, the conservation of remaining forests will be a top priority in all countries, on all continents. Logging of natural forests will be banned in many countries.
Civil society, especially in developed countries and particularly through non-governmental organizations (NGOs), will raise funds to support conservation; governments will fund the less attractive aspects of conservation and will have the role only of supervisor. There will also be changes in the principles and practice of conservation; preservation ethics will receive less emphasis and human interaction will be more accepted as part of nature. International NGOs will be very active in tropical countries. However, population pressures, private interests in harvesting natural forests, poverty, corruption and civil unrest will continue to overcome efforts to protect forests and their wildlife. Nature will be intensively and unnaturally preserved in some areas, while extinction of species and ecosystems will continue in others.
In today's developing countries and countries with economies in transition, areas will be put under strict conservation or preservation measures (imitating the situation in India), but they will be inadequately protected. Other countries will manage most of their forests on a multiple-use basis. In those countries where adequate protection areas have been established and maintained, forests will come under increased pressure from tourism.
Forest conservation in the tropics will face major problems as populations continue to increase and countries try to maintain the pace of development. In Africa and several other developing areas, nature will be under increasing pressure, and forests and rangeland areas will continue to be encroached, to the detriment of many species. Several large animals such as tigers and rhinoceroses will have disappeared from the wild and will remain only in zoos. The large animals that remain in the wild will be in much smaller numbers than at present. The Amazon region will be the most important region of the planet for biodiversity conservation.
In 2050, large animals such as rhinoceroses will have disappeared from the wild and will remain only in zoos
- FAO/5926/M. Boulton
More partnership and closer collaboration with populations living near forests will be necessary for the conservation of protected areas and for the safeguarding of forests from fire, and will at the same time enable these forest-adjacent people to gain real benefits from the forest. The greatest pressure on natural forests will come from agricultural expansion in developing countries, and from the clearing of forests to increase water yields from catchment areas worldwide.
Plantations will continue to be an important wood source and the predominant source of fibre for the forest products industry (providing at least 30 percent, and possibly up to 60 percent). Intensive tree farming will be adopted in large-scale plantations, allowing other conservation decisions to be made for natural forest areas. The global area of plantations will therefore increase dramatically to between three and four times its present extent. More plantations will be established outside traditional forest areas and on marginal agricultural lands.
Millions of hectares of plantations will consist of cloned genetically improved cultivars. There are likely to be more and more plantations of Eucalyptus and Pinus species. The current debate over the "naturalness" and environmental acceptability of plantations will die down.
Plantations will be of increasing importance for the provision of goods, especially in certain stable countries with low population density, appropriate land to devote to forestry and good climate (including New Zealand, Australia, Chile, Argentina and Portugal, to be joined by others such as Mozambique and Indonesia). Latin America will have the greatest area of fast-growing tree plantations. In the most economically advanced tropical countries, short-cycle plantations will be promoted for fibre production.
However, plantations will be assigned other uses too. Long-rotation plantations will be considered in specific cases where the focus is on conservation objectives. Plantations will be established in Europe to meet a wide range of environmental and aesthetic objectives, with production functions being less important.
Urban forestry will gain in importance in developed and developing countries, partly because of its potential in the recycling of waste or sewage water. Rural plantations and trees outside forests will have become more important in countries where the rural percentage of the population remains high. Planted trees will also be used to provide services and will be increasingly integrated into land use systems where they will also provide industrial roundwood (e.g. through outgrower schemes), helping to maintain forest activities in remote rural areas.
The establishment of plantations as a large-scale measure specifically to alleviate climate change, which was expected at the beginning of the century, will not have occurred.
There will be important risks too; natural disasters and new pests will make long-term investments in timber plantation very hazardous. Industrial plantations will be financed by the private sector only, and market forces will determine the extension, reduction or conversion of tree plantations.
Technological advances will facilitate increases in forest plantation. Genetic manipulation, biotechnology, tree selection and improved cultivation practices will have considerably improved production per unit area. Trees with better resistance to insect and disease attacks will be developed. Plantations will be based on species modified to produce fibre with specific properties to meet product requirements, as well as to increase yields. Deserts will have become fertile and will be used as a major production area for fibre, with water made available from both the sea and groundwater.
Plantations will become increasingly important for the provision of goods; there are likely to be more and more plantations of Eucalyptus species, for instance
- FAO/17531/R. Faidutti
The management of plantations will also be improved, although the situation will continue to be polarized between very well managed plantations and those that vegetate because of inadequate initial investment and poor or lacking management. In the developed world, plantation management will be highly mechanized and will use complex informatics techniques to optimize production and reduce risks (pests, fire and low growth). Some countries of the developing world, such as China, will also have improved plantation management.
Among the outstanding issues will be the need to encourage NGOs to accept plantations as a main source of fibre and as a means of reducing the harvesting of natural forests. The controversy over preserving heritage and biodiversity will increase.
Wood energy consumption will diminish in importance in many countries as it is superseded by new energy-producing technologies, as incomes increase and as the prices of fuel substitutes decrease. In the developing world, wood energy consumption will drop dramatically by 2020 as governments seek to satisfy domestic energy demands with non-renewable sources and establish stronger incentives to encourage many households to switch from wood fuel to gas, petrol or electricity. Fuelwood consumption will also be reduced through the development of more efficient ways of using wood as fuel, especially in China, South America and South Africa.
Wood will remain important as a fuel particularly in the poorest countries, in subsistence economies, in specific remote locations and in wood-rich societies. In some places where the population is high (urban areas), wood fuel will remain scarce and limited plantations in rural areas will not supply enough to meet the increasing needs. In many countries, wood will be outcompeted by other energy sources.
In developed countries, there will be new policies and incentives to use wood fuel to help maintain and clean the forests. However, wood energy will never really take off as a renewable source of energy in developed countries. With the new sources of energy of the future, the tendency will be for a reduced need of wood-based energy. Such technological developments as fuel cells and fusion might reduce dependence on fossil fuels and renewable energy sources.
Demand for most forest products will continue to increase, at least for the next 20 years, and may even increase much more rapidly than current projections suggest. Shortage of non-renewable primary sources of raw material (gas, petrol) will increase the use of wood products worldwide. Supplies for major wood forest products (pulp, paper, furniture) will increasingly come from plantations. Supply of all major wood products will be adequate because of technological improvements, recycling and substitution. Prices of utility or commodity wood will be similar to or lower than present prices in real terms.
Supply and demand for major forest products will continue to be centred mainly in developed and a very few developing countries. Wood - not in solid form but in composite panels and other forms - will be increasingly used for house building. Fuelwood will have gained in importance for industrial heating. Non-wood forest products (NWFPs) will diminish in importance, while demand for forest services such as recreation will increase.1
More wood will be requested, but more of it will be in the form of wood fibre. There will be increased demand for composite boards, less for sawntimber and face veneer. Solid wood will be at a premium, especially rare, high-quality hardwood grown in tropical natural forests. Prices of these timbers will be very high and international trade will be strictly controlled by private stewardship organizations.
Prices of pulp-quality logs will decline as plantation productivity begins to increase during the next decade. This should trigger expansion in fibre-based industries.
Pulp and paper recycling rates will stagnate, perhaps at about 60 to 70 percent of the materials, because of collection costs and availability. There will be no significant reduction in demand for packaging, rather demand will increase with population growth and higher cultural levels, including increased literacy efforts; there will be more electronic commerce but products will still need to be shipped and packaged. Demand for office paper may be down somewhat because of electronic communications.
China, the Russian Federation, Brazil and Australia are some of the countries that will have a leading role in the supply of wood for international markets.
Because of its omnipresence and visibility, water may well be the major issue in the twenty-first century, taking on increased importance in areas such as agriculture, urbanism and politics. Water will be the most strategic non-renewable resource of the world. Billions of people will depend entirely on it for their livelihoods. Demand for water will increase exponentially. Water will be scarcer and will become accepted as a priced commodity. There will be vastly increased competition for water, and its scarcity could provoke regional conflicts. The role of trees and forests may not be perceived positively because of the increased water use of forests relative to grassland, for example. However, forests will be maintained and managed better to provide appropriate watersheds.
A heavy price will be paid for the failure to integrate the forecasts for supply and demand of goods dependent on water and other natural resources, especially non-renewable resources. The countries with the largest freshwater reserves will have an important and strategic role in international decisions, discussions, debates and negotiations. Water will be the oil of the future.
An opposite scenario was also predicted: scarcity of water will belong to the past. The possibility of wars over water availability to mega-cities will end, as new technologies will recently have been made available to extract potable water from the sea. New water supply possibilities will open new horizons for wood production in deserts and countries with low forest cover.
As a consequence of the continued progress in technology development that will take place over the next 50 years, forest management practices will have improved considerably. High-technology informatics will be used everywhere in the world to improve forest management. Computers and computer-based technology will be the basis for all activities. More communication, more computers, powerful software and robotics will bring considerable improvement to monitoring of the forests. The earmarking and monitoring of all valuable trees in natural forests will have become a reality. Each inventoried and valuable tree will be equipped with an electronic chip under its bark. Tree growth and harvest will be controlled using satellite and computer technologies.
Forest inventories and related work based mainly on estimation of areas and volumes will depend on remote sensing technology. Satellite-derived data and information will be the basis for the most cost-effective work. Systems operating with microwave technology (radar) will easily monitor even selective logging in, say, an area smaller than 1 m2. These systems will be operated with the ease with which the Internet is used today. In other words, it will be possible to monitor the process of deforestation or selective logging on a real-time basis in any area or region of the world.
Harvesting in tropical countries will be done exclusively by helicopter, zeppelins or other aerial means. No new roads will be opened in so-called production forests, and new forest encroachments will be limited. Technology for obtaining energy from the sun and wind will be mastered, permitting the desalinization of seawater and making large areas of desert cultivable.
Biotechnology will also be very popular. Tree breeding will permit increased production of usable fibre (e.g. trees with less lignin for pulpwood, or with increased resistance to diseases and insect attack), but the benefits will not be as great as expected. The use of genetically modified trees will be an important issue, and there will be a growing difference of opinions and policy between Europe and the United States in that regard.
In wood processing, technology will increase the efficiency of wood as a raw material, allowing greater utilization of a wider range of species and small-diameter wood. There will continue to be improvements in conversion, and the existing efficient techniques used by a few large mills will spread throughout the world. Recycling of paper and fibre will be a key element of technology development. New technologies will seek to use waste wood and fibre to produce high-quality reconstituted wood products. These products will be technologically competitive with (or superior to) solid wood, and much cheaper, so economics will lead to a large-scale market shift away from solid wood products. Advances in industrial processing technologies, including more efficient utilization of fibre, will ultimately vastly outstrip advances in biotechnology. There will also be a major emphasis on composites and non-wood substitutes.
In the pulp and paper sector there will be marginal improvements in reducing the environmental damage of industrial production. Energy consumption in pulp and paper processing may be reduced, and closed water systems (whereby a mill does not discharge contaminated effluents or consume large volumes of freshwater) are quite likely in the next five to ten years. There will be more use of plantation and recycled fibres, and there will be marginal improvements in yield (unit of output versus unit of input). There is not likely to be any revolutionary process, or process change, that will have a tremendous impact either on the environment or on consumption of forest fibres.
Information technology will improve dramatically worldwide. Information on all subjects will become globally available to all individuals and will have an impact on relations between governments and people. A great deal of technical, policy, environmental and economic information will be generated, shared and used. User-friendly Web sites will make information available for anyone anywhere. Information will be free, and independent organizations will make sure that information is not manipulated. One main problem for the user will be to decide what is true and/or relevant.
Information technology will hit a ceiling by 2020, after which further improvement in technologies will be neither cost-effective nor comprehensible to the average person. The law of diminishing returns to investment will start to have an effect.
Water will be the most strategic non-renewable resource of the world and the major issue of the century
- FAO/12170/J. Van Acker
The major change over the next 25 years will be the massive dissemination of information technology and catch-up in areas that are currently behind, such as Africa. The development of interagency networks will be a major improvement.
However, the world will suffer tremendously as a result of growing disparity between the information "haves" and "have-nots". Computer-have-not countries will be more and more at a disadvantage for receiving information.
With continuous advances in remote sensing and computer technology, information will have a much more key role in future decision-making. However, this will not necessarily lead to more rational decisions.
The paperless, or at least semi-paperless, office will begin to become a reality.
Computers will be the basis for all forest management activities, as dissemination of information technology increases in areas that are currently behind, such as Africa; in the photo, forest industry workers obtain computer training at the Training Centre for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries in Zimbabwe
- FAO/20300/G. Diana
The importance of international organizations will diminish globally but will increase regionally and locally. Their role will be confined more and more to that of information clearing-houses and fora for debate and they will have less and less of a role in field actions.
The United Nations (UN) will have to simplify its organization and will put together various agencies with less bureaucracy, greater budgets and more effectiveness in carrying out their mandates. There will be separate agencies for agriculture, water, forests, etc. However, these agencies will be relatively small, with about 100 people each. The agencies will basically rely on national expertise for execution of their mandates. They will function mainly as facilitators of international debate on such great global themes as deforestation, air pollution and international watersheds. There will be increased pressure to give the UN agencies a greater role in monitoring than they have at present. They may also serve in the centralization of analytical capacities.
A world forestry organization will emerge and will have a predominant role in world forest agendas. It will join forces with the World Bank on specific large-scale issues (fires in Asia, poverty alleviation, biodiversity erosion in the Amazon and Central Africa). Partnership with other agencies will be important. NGOs will have increasing importance, and the influence of NGOs and the private sector will dominate international decision-making on forests.
Regionally, for example in Europe, Africa and Asia, there will be strong private organizations working at the international level to deal directly with forestry management and conservation. The UN system will be used only to help create coherence among the regions and to solve possible conflicts over the use of common wealth such as water and air.
Strong networks and discussion groups will be made possible by the Internet. International communication will rely more and more on information technology, but meetings will still be required. Virtual meetings will be organized on various subjects related to forestry and conservation, with high participation of interested parties; decisions taken by delegates will take into account the votes of the virtual participants.
There will be continued erosion of the power of the state, on which UN organizations are based. The continued devolution of power, combined with regionalization, will lead to alliances of interest groups across states, and membership of the UN will move from nation states to wider groupings. However, there will still be a need for neutral fora to bring the new members together to agree on global issues.
NGOs will be more and more opposed to big business, and ad hoc alliances among NGOs of widely diverse (if not opposing) philosophies will be promoted in order to defend small producers, enterprises or population groups. Their tactics will be creative and will meet with increasing public approval and support.
Some of the main issues under discussion will be climate change; access to freshwater; forest ownership among forest dwellers, government and industry; conflict between the policies of Northern and of Southern countries; and trade wars and tariffs.
In the future, state institutions will have a very reduced role in terms of programme execution, with increased trends towards decentralization and devolution of forest management. Power will be devolved to lower levels but also to regional and interest groupings. The administration of a large part of forest resources and environment-related business will be in the hands of private companies and civil society. National resources will be managed through collaborative or interinstitutional mechanisms.
Governments will retain the current broad focus on fairer distribution of global resources and wealth. Although the role of governments may be markedly lessened, considerations of equity (or more bluntly, gross inequity), both within countries and globally, may take on far greater importance than they have at present.
Because of overarching developments in communication and transport and increased transparency, governance will be improved in most of the world. However, forestry governance will continue to be weak in many countries, and extremely weak in most developing ones. Overall there will be more democratic and transparent institutions at the regional and local levels, with less emphasis on national institutions. Transparency will be the driving motive.
With easy communication and increased connection to the Internet (or to whatever tool may succeed the Internet), people will participate actively in discussions and debates related to forest conservation and utilization. Discussions about policy reforms will be permanent and organized by NGOs advocating selected matters. Large NGOs and other associations will put strong pressure on natural resources management and will be in direct conflict with private business and governments, especially in developing countries.
To summarize, the joint vision presented by the group of FAO experts who participated in this exercise is one in which:
The potential value of this exercise is not so much in the accuracy of the predictions, but in the methodological and analytical aspects - particularly in the implications of how the Delphi method can be used to improve forestry planning and policy. This type of exercise allows organizations to tap their rich network of dispersed and busy experts in order to produce relevant analysis for use in policy formulation and planning.
The goal of the process, and of this article, was not to make recommendations for a national or international agenda, but to show the importance of thinking systematically about the future. Nevertheless, a logical extension or continuation of the process would be to consider the implications of the collective vision expressed here. Questions might be raised about reasonable courses of action, either to ensure that the future comes about as expressed in the vision, or to modify current behaviour in the hopes of changing the future. Readers are invited to test the precision of the FAO group vision by comparing it with reality in 2050.
1 Note that an opposite view was also expressed, predicting that supply and demand of wood products will diminish globally, while that for non-wood products will increase.
