3. Global Plantations – Emerging Role in Timber Production

Forest plantations make up only 3.5 percent of global forest area (FAO 2000 – see also Working Paper FP/13). Tropical plantations make up 45 percent of the estimated 124 million hectares of plantations. Plantations are most effective in substituting for industrial wood (pulpwood, sawlogs etc) and provide about 22 percent of the supply[2]. Only 4 percent of non-industrial wood used comes from plantations. Forecasts, largely based on trees already planted, suggest that plantations will make up a bigger proportion of wood use in the next 20 or so years (FAO 2000). But can plantations keep pace with both declining natural forest production and growing consumption?

An optimistic estimate of the permanent loss of existing natural forest production through further deforestation and degradation, based on recent deforestation rates, suggests that the annual decline in production from disturbed forests could be 6.2-7.0 million m³ ha^-1 yr^-1.[3] Without significant increases in both the available area and productivity of industrial plantations of commercial species, the present net growth of 84 million m³annually would be overtaken by reductions due to deforestation alone within 12-14 years, a period shorter than the growing cycle of most industrial plantations. Removing additional areas of natural forests through establishment of new protected areas or expanded logging bans would further reduce harvests. Much of this protected area would likely be taken from available undisturbed forests that have higher current growth and productivity (approximately double) than the disturbed forests.

Global consumption of timber is also projected to increase. Total roundwood consumption was projected as increasing at an annual rate of 1.12 percent between 1994-2010, from 3.21 billion m³to 3.84 billion m³ (FAO 1997). Industrial roundwood was projected to increase 1.20 percent annually, from 1.47 billion m³to over 1.78 billion m³. This increase of over 300 million m³by 2010 far exceeds the estimated net current growth from industrial plantations of 84 million m³.

[2] In part, this ratio is subject to interpretation based on definitions of “plantations”. Managed second and third forests of North America and Europe may be included as “plantations” depending upon data sources.
[3] This estimate assumes that degraded forests become the primary source of deforestation as non-sustainable use further deteriorates forest stands. Estimate reflects trends in the African, Asian, Central American and South American regions, which together experienced a deforestation rate of almost 12.9 million hectares annually. These regions account for just over 586 million hectares of ‘available’ natural forests, with over 443 million hectares considered as ‘disturbed’ with a current potential for harvesting of only 0.5-1.5 m³ ha^-1. Data derived from FAO, Global Fibre Supply Model (1998)