This paper takes a forward look at the forestry sector of Zambia starting from the present status of forestry in the country. The paper seeks to visualise the most likely situation that will develop as regards forests and forest industries during the next 20 years – from 2001 to 2020 – and to asses the likely implications of the development in the sector by identifying the important forces of change (Change Drivers) and predict on how these are likely to affect the forestry sector.
The paper also indicates the assumptions made about the policy, institutional and technological changes while at the same time taking into considerations the inter-sectoral linkages.
Zambia is well endowed with forest resources that can play an important role in the national economy and in improving the living standards of people. However, deforestation in the last three decades has contributed to the depletion of this valuable resource.
Forests produce a great variety of goods and services for the people of the country. Thus, forests have value to people and contribute to meeting human needs in a number of ways. The contribution occurs through the direct and indirect use of the forests and the mere existence of the forest or options for its future direct or indirect use.
The main land-use types in Zambia are forests, agriculture and settlements. Forests are dominant, covering 60% of the country’s total land area. The main vegetation type is Miombo woodland, which covers 47% of the country’s land area. The other types are the savannah woodland and grassland. Proper and up-to date country wide data on forests is not available since the last comprehensive forest resources inventory was carried out in the 1960s.
Agricultural land covers about 20% of the country’s land area. This sector is the largest contributor to loss of forests in the country. For example, the 65% increase in maize production during the period of 1981 – 1991 in Zambia is attributable mainly to expansion of cultivated land rather than the increased yield per hectare of land. It is estimated that from 1992 to 1996, agricultural land-use increased by an average of 1.5% each year.
Woodfuel demands around big towns and along main roads has contributed to deforestation in the country. It is estimated that deforestation as a result of woodfuel production claimed about 25,000 ha in 1969. In 1980 and 1990, this figure rose to 38,000 and 53,000 ha, respectively (Chidumayo, 1996).
The original forest policy was formulated in the 1960s as a set of instructions to the Forestry Department. Of great concern in this policy was the lack of provision for community participation in the forestry sector development, but provided for Government control by way of policing over forest reserves.
In order to be consistent with the current overall Government policy of promoting private sector and community participation in forestry sector development, a new forestry policy was formulated in 1998. The major features of this policy are the emphasis on community participation in forestry development and the withdrawal of the exclusive powers of Government control, ownership, planning and management of the forest resources. This policy is also supported by the new Forests Act No. 7 of 1999 (CAP. 199 of the Laws of Zambia).
In Zambia, the annual rate of deforestation ranges between 250,000 and 300,000 ha. However, this estimate may be incorrect as it is based on the large-scale forestry inventory that was carried out in the 1960s. Moreover, it has not been changed for a number of years, ignoring the population growth and consumption of wood resources. Since deforestation is related to population growth, it is likely that the rate will keep on increasing in future.
The forestry sector in the country, if properly developed, has the potential to make a significant contribution towards the economic growth. The current underdeveloped state of the sector means increases can be substantial.
There are two major problems affecting the Zambian forest sector. Both arise from population growth and the basic needs of people. The increasing number of people means that food has to be produced for all, with energy for cooking and lighting. These two needs can not be avoided, but can mitigate their impact on forests.
At the national level, biodiversity conservation is relevant in terms of the economic benefits it brings about through the consumptive and no-consumptive use of forest based produce. Not only is it important from the stand point of the supply of forest and wood products to the wood based formal and informal industries but also of wildlife which attracts tourism.
The indigenous forests with an estimated wood volume of about 4 billion cubic metres and commercial plantations with another estimated wood volume of about 6 million cubic metres are the main source of sawn timber, poles and mining timber for both formal and informal enterprises, and the 7 million cubic metres of woodfuel consumed every year. The wood panel industry alone is worth about US$ 2 Million per annum. Additionally, Zambia earned US$ 1 Million from the export of wood products between1990 and 1995.
Globally, Zambia’s forests are as important as they are to the country. The forests protect the river basins of the major rivers, which flow beyond the country’s borders with neighbouring countries. Sustainable supplies of benefits brought about by the rivers such as the Zambezi and Luapula to the countries concerned depend on the stability of these forests in Zambia.
