4. MR/H - Environmental Impact Case Study

4.1 Southeast Asia

4.1.1 Tropical Forest Losses

A report by FAO (1993), titled Forest Resources Assessment, 1990: Tropical Countries, separates tropical forests, for the first time into various ecological types, including rain, moist, and dry, and identifies those countries in which deforestation is most significant within each type. This report and other studies (World Resources 1992, 1994) suggest that the area of degraded and fragmented tropical forest may be significantly larger than the actual forested area. The FAO report shows that Brazil and Indonesia apparently account for about 45 percent of global rain forest loss. Furthermore, habitat loss and thus biodiversity loss is proceeding much faster than deforestation figures would imply. Good forestry information is widely available for Asia.

Asia lost its forest at 1.2 percent annually between 1981 and 1990, the highest rate of any region and twice the global average (Table V.4). It also has less remaining forest than other tropical regions. The deforestation is primarily attributed to clearing of the small area of remaining intact forest. With the exception of Laos, all other countries of continental Southeast Asia experienced a sharp rise in their annual deforestation rates. According to World Resources (1990) several factors have contributed to this situation: thriving economies in Thailand and Viet Nam, a growing demand for agricultural land and timber, increased investment in that region from Japan and Asian neighbors, and timber sales by governments or rebel groups.

FAO divides lowland forests into five categories (based on precipitation and type): rain forest, moist deciduous, dry deciduous, very dry deciduous, and desert. In Asia rain forest (148 million ha) accounted for 54 percent of total forest remaining in 1990, moist deciduous 15 percent (42 million ha), hill and mountain 15 percent (41 million ha), dry deciduous 15 percent (41 million ha), very dry essentially none, and desert 1 percent (3 million ha). Asia leads all areas of the world in rain forest loss. Asia has the largest percentage of forest area set aside for wildlife protection (9 percent) of all areas in the world. Wood is the primary product removed from Asia's forests and woodlands. Part of that wood is for timber and the other for fuel.

The 1992-93 issue of World Resources indicates that overgrazing accounts for 26 percent of degraded area in Asia, while agricultural activities claim another 27 percent. The largest proportion, 40 percent, of degradation is from vegetation removal. About 30 percent of soil area is considered degraded. This same report declares that many governments, environmental, and other nongovernmental organizations and international aid agencies insist that tropical forests must be managed on a sustainable basis if their economic, social, and ecological benefits are to continue into the future. Much of the current discussion concerns issues outside the forestry sector. Four main areas of proposed actions include reforming national policies; creating new international agreements on trade, aid, and debt relief; recognizing the rights of indigenous people; and coordinating overlapping areas with climate change and biodiversity.

Table V.4 Tropical forest extent and loss by ecosystem

FOREST ECOSYSTEM TYPE

	TOTAL
DECIDUOUS	FOREST		RAIN		MOIST
	PERCENT		PERCENT		PERCENT
	1990 EXTENT (000 ha)	ANNUAL CHANGE 1981-90	1990 EXTENT (000 ha)	ANNUAL CHANGE 1981-90	1990 EXTENT (000 ha)	ANNUAL CHANGE 1981-90
WORLD	1,756,299	(0.8)	713,790	(0.6)	591,779	(0.9)
ASIA	274,597	(1.2)	148,027	(1.2)	41,797	(1.4)
South Asia	63,931	(0.8)	9,850	(0.8)	9,155	(0.6)
Bangladesh	769	(3.3)	572	(3.6)	197	(2.1)
Bhutan	2,809	(0.6)	176	(0.5)	0	0.0
India	51,729	(0.6)	8,246	(0.6)	7,042	(0.5)
Nepal	5,023	(1.0)	609	(0.6)	1,300	(0.6)
Pakistan	1,855	(2.9)	0	0.0	11	(3.1)
Sri Lanka	1,746	(1.3)	247	(0.6)	605	(1.4)
Continental South
East Asia	75,240	(1.5)	23,719	(1.5)	27,192	(1.6)
Cambodia	12,163	(1.0)	1,689	(1.0)	3,610	(1.0)
Lao People's
Dem Rep	13,173	(0.9)	3,960	(0.9)	4,542	(0.9)
Myanmar	28,856	(1.2)	12,094	(1.2)	10,427	(1.4)
Thailand	12,735	(2.9)	3,082	(3.3)	5,232	(2.7)
Viet Nam	8,312	(1.4)	2,894	(1.4)	3,382	(1.4)
Insular South
East Asia	135,426	(1.2)	114,355	(1.2)	4,779	(1.6)
Brunei	458	(0.4)	458	(0.4)	0	0.0
Indonesia	109,549	(1.0)	93,827	(1.0)	3,366	(1.0)
Malaysia	17,583	(1.8)	16,339	(1.8)	0	0.0
Philippines	7,831	(2.9)	3,728	(3.1)	1,413	(2.7)
Singapore	4	0.0	4	0.0	0	0.0

Tropical Forest Extent and Loss by Ecosystem (continued)

FOREST ECOSYSTEM TYPE

	Hill and Mountain		Dry Deciduous		Moist Deciduous		Desert
	PERCENT		PERCENT		PERCENT		PERCENT
	1990 EXTENT (000 ha)	ANNUAL CHANGE 1981-90	1990 EXTENT (000 ha)	ANNUAL CHANGE 1981-90	1990 EXTENT (000 ha)	ANNUAL CHANGE 1981-90	1990 EXTENT (000 ha)	ANNUAL CHANGE 1981-90
WORLD	201417	(1.1)	178,579	(0.9)	59,742	(0.5)	8086	(0.9)
ASIA	41122	(1.2)	40,691	(1.0)	37	(2.9)	2901	(0.9)
South Asia	14988	(0.9)	27,119	(0.8)	37	(2.9)	2781	(1.0)
Bangladesh	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0
Bhutan	2230	(0.6)	0	0.0	0	0.0	403	(0.6)
India	8917	(0.4)	26,242	(0.8)	0	0.0	1283	(0.2)
Nepal	2361	(1.2)	37	(0.5)	0	0.0	716	(1.1)
Pakistan	1423	(2.9)	4	(3.3)	37	(2.9)	380	(2.9)
Sri Lanka	57	0.0	836	(1.5)	0	0.0	0	0.0
Continental
South East Asia	3	(1.3)	13,499	(1.5)	0	0.0	43	(0.7)
Cambodia	93	(1.0)	6,771	(1.0)	0	0.0	0	0.0
Lao People's
Dem Rep	2405	(1.0)	2,267	(0.8)	0	0.0	0	0.0
Myanmar	5942	(1.0)	351	(1.1)	0	0.0	43	(0.7)
Thailand	1263	(2.7)	3,159	(2.8)	0	0.0	0	0.0
Viet Nam	1084	(1.4)	952	(1.4)	0	0.0	0	0.0
Insular South
East Asia	16018	(1.4)	73	(0.9)	0	0.0	77	(0.4)
Brunei	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0
Indonesia	12083	(1.1)	73	(0.9)	0	0.0	77	(0.4)
Malaysia	1244	(1.8)	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0
Philippines	2690	(2.6)	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0
Singapore	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0

Land ownership is a major issue which needs to be addressed in Asia as well as other parts of the world to secure sustainable use of forest lands. Forest residents on public domain have no secured right of use or access. A very real problem is that many governments consider their forest land undeveloped and will grant title to forest land to those who will improve it by clearing for pasture or plantation agriculture, for example. A problem is that traditional uses such as shifting cultivation do not usually qualify as improvement. A related issue is agrarian reform.

The destruction of Asia's biodiversity habitat, especially through widespread clearing of forests should not be tolerated. Neither should the myth be tolerated that cattle are responsible, for it is humankind which is the cause. More specifically, it is large human population increases rather than animals per se, or preferences for livestock products, which are responsible for the sustainability issue.

A dialogue is needed on the question of who should produce and why. If the goal is economic development and radically improved standards of living for rural as well as urban dwellers, then promotion of commercial-scale livestock operations should be encouraged. That means support for a policy which encourages urbanization, especially with a reduction of marginal and subsistence-level producers. The concept of very small producers is a laudable one, but size as well as other constraints prevent substantial income improvements, thus leaving these producers as an ever-alienated part of society.

There should be recognition that society (i.e., policymakers) now need to set sustainability parameters rather than simply rely on market forces and belated public opinion. This approach could be accomplished by interaction with agricultural specialists and economists to determine feasible targets and appropriate legislation. Clearly, producers are profit makers who operate within rules set by society. Development of regulations which stimulate productivity, yet provide guides of what society wants in terms of economic growth and an ecological vision, are part of the development process. Asia is at a critical juncture in which these policies and legislation should be articulated.

The policymaker's role is a critical factor for with equitable prices and reasonable profits, i.e., a producer-oriented policy, an adoption of technology will lead to improved efficiency and increased efficiency per what can be termed "natural resources unit." Again, the equity question is crucial, for in animal agriculture much of the technology and management practices are of such complexity that application in an effective way is not realistic by smaller producers.

Eggs and poultry meat output expansion and productivity can be handled by the private sector with relatively little technical help from the public sector. However, the private sector can only fulfill its task by legislation and policies which encourage investment, development and inexpensive feedstuffs. In effect, development agencies need do little related to poultry production from a sustainability and efficiency viewpoint, except assist in development of environmental regulations, help in creation of a good climate for investors, and foster an atmosphere which rewards intensification and creation of economic size units. Pig production is quite similar to poultry in terms of strategy development. Rapid improvement in productivity and reduction in cost to consumers is possible from medium- and larger-scale commercial production units. A critical element, as with poultry products, is that investors require political stability and encouragement, issues on which it may be difficult to develop a consensus.

Small ruminants merit some consideration from international agencies from both a development and sustainability viewpoint. However, due to limited numbers and the relatively high cost of goat and sheep meat, their main emphasis will probably be on certain selected groups, such as producers at the lower end of the economic spectrum, rather than as country- or regionwide programs. Much has been learned over the past decade from the small ruminant CRSP.

Beef cattle and dairy cattle provide the major opportunities for development agencies and for national and regional development and research in Asia. Research should be applied, particularly with much of it conducted on-farm by specialists with joint extension/research appointments. A missing link is best filled by individuals who realize their mission is a developmental one - not one of basic research. Closing the dichotomy between extension and research has to be a top priority.

A tremendous demand will emerge for more feed grains and oilseed meals in Asia, primarily for poultry production and, second, for pork production. Without accelerated gains in farm productivity, rising demands due to both population increase and income growth will translate directly into environmental stress. A continuous flow of technology and associated intensification is critical to environmental sustainability.

The key to reversing destruction to biodiversity in Central America is resource management, which means improved economic efficiency, which in turn means more productive use of available resources. Perhaps the main point is that the systems must be economically viable to producers, who now and in the future make the decisions.

4.1.2 Urbanization and Mechanization

Increases in population are an important aspect in the design development strategies for Asian livestock industry improvement. The degree of urbanization which has a major impact on the relative importance of livestock systems varies considerably by country. For example, Malaysia has experienced a 150 percent growth in urban population since the 1960s and is expected to be nearly 67 percent urbanized by 2025. Indonesia's urban proportion will grow from 30 percent today to 55 percent in 2025 (Table V.5). Thailand will jump from 23 percent at present to 49 percent in 2025. The PRC, where the distinction between rural and urban is blurred due to rapid development of rural industry, will also witness increasing urbanization, climbing from 21 percent to 44 percent in 2025 according to official United Nations projections (1991). China's urbanization rate would probably be much closer to 60 or 70 percent in 2025 if adjustments were to be made for rural families engaged in part-time farming and rural industry.

The total population of Southeast Asia will increase from about 585 million people at the end of the 1980s to nearly one billion in 2025. That is a 71 percent increase over the three-and-a-half decade period. During this interval, urban population will increase 232 percent. In contrast, a crucial point for livestock industry planning is that rural population will only grow 17 percent, from 436 million in 1988-90 to 510 million in 2025. Furthermore, Southeast Asia's total rural population will actually decline after 2010.

The implications of rapid urbanization are numerous. Clearly, crop and livestock producers will have to be increasingly productive. The demand for commodities will change and more mechanization is expected. The shift from extractive systems to more intensive ones will expand the demand for grain, especially in milk production from higher-producing dairy cattle, and in poultry and pig production. The implication is that limited development funds will increasingly have to be directed toward market oriented producers.

Evaluation of macroeconomic data indicates that low per capita income is associated with a low level of urbanization (Simpson 1994). When urbanization reaches approximately 60 percent per capita, income increases rapidly with small changes in urbanization. While heavy urbanization is not necessarily associated with per capita income gains over the short term, particularly where there is heavy migration and high population growth rates, it is a necessary condition to reach relatively high levels of per capita income in the longer term. Higher per capita income is associated with greater demand for livestock products.

Dense population in most of Southeast Asia is cause for concern about feedstuffs use and availability in the coming decades, especially as demand for these commodities grows. There are several ways to make projections related to livestock and livestock products, depending on objectives and time frame. Because there are many kinds of feedstuffs and types of animals, common denominators are necessary when making projections. Energy and protein are most often used, as they are the main determinants or measures of feedstuffs. The purpose of the following projection exercise is not to make forecasts of supply and demand for livestock products. Rather, the intention is to determine the amount of additional feedstuffs that will be required given certain assumptions about human consumption of livestock products and changes in the major input parameters resulting from adoption of technologies or management changes.

The model chosen has 210 variables for which data are input and about 1,000 parameters (Simpson 1992). Two major projection approaches for inventory include one for draft or transport animals, i.e., a supply-side approach where meat or milk are joint or secondary products, and another for animals in which meat or milk are the primary products. In the former case, which includes donkeys, buffalo, camels, horses, and mules, evaluation is made relative to each type animal regarding the impact from mechanization, urbanization, and past experience to make projections of animal numbers. Inventory of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, and poultry are made by multiplying per capita consumption projections of the principal commodities by population to estimate total consumption. Pigs and poultry are included to determine the entire situation. Consumption of livestock products is essentially equivalent to production due to a negligible impact on total consumption in Southeast Asia from extraregional trade. Inventory is then calculated by computations involving dressing percent, live animal weight, offtake, and a substantial series of production coefficients, especially for pigs and poultry. Inventory and production data are from FAO.

Table V.5 Human Population in Southeast Asia and China, 1969-71 to 2025

ITEM	BANGLADESH	BHUTAN	BRUNEI	CAMBODIA	INDONESIA	LAOS	MALAYSIA	MYANMAR	NEPAL	PHILIPPINES	SRI-LANKA	THAILAND	VIETNAM	S. EAST ASIA	CHINA
MILLIONS
TOTAL
1969-71	66.7	1.1	0.1	6.9	120.3	2.7	10.9	27.1	11.5	37.5	12.5	35.8	42.7	375.9	816
1979-81	88.2	1.2	0.2	6.4	151	3.2	13.8	33.8	14.9	48.3	14.8	46.7	53.7	476.2	979
1988-90	112.6	1.5	0.3	7.8	180.8	4	17.4	40.8	18.7	60.9	17	54.9	65.3	582.1	1127
2000	150.6	1.9	0.3	10	208.3	5.1	20.9	51.1	24.1	77.4	19.4	63.7	83	716	1303
2010	188.2	2.4	0.4	11.5	232	6.2	23.7	60.6	28.9	92	21.5	71.6	98	837	1422
2025	235	3.1	0.4	14	263.3	7.7	27.9	72.6	35	111.4	24.4	80.9	118	993.6	1591
URBAN
1969-71	5.3	0	0.1	0.8	20.5	0.3	2.9	6.2	0.5	12.4	2.8	4.6	7.7	64.1	163
1979-81	8.8	0	0.1	0.6	33.2	0.4	4.7	8.1	0.9	17.9	3.3	7.9	10.2	96.2	196
1988-90	15.8	0.1	0.1	0.9	52.4	0.8	7.3	10.2	1.9	25.6	3.6	12.6	14.4	145.7	237
2000	27.1	0.2	0.2	1.5	77.1	1.3	10.4	14.3	3.4	37.9	4.7	18.5	22.4	218.9	326
2010	45.2	0.3	0.2	2.3	104.4	2.1	13.7	21.2	5.8	51.5	6.7	26.5	34.3	314.1	455
2025	84.6	0.6	0.3	4.2	147.4	3.5	18.7	34.1	10.8	73.5	10.5	39.6	55.4	483.4	700
RURAL
1969-71	61.4	1.1	0	6.1	99.9	2.4	7.9	20.9	11	25.1	9.8	31.1	35.1	311.7	653
1979-81	79.4	1.2	0.1	5.8	117.7	2.8	9.1	25.7	14	30.4	11.6	38.8	43.5	380	784
1988-90	96.8	1.4	0.1	6.9	128.4	3.3	10.1	30.6	16.8	35.3	13.4	42.3	50.9	436.4	890
2000	123.5	1.8	0.1	8.5	131.2	3.9	10.4	36.8	20.7	39.5	14.7	45.2	60.6	497	977
2010	143	2.1	0.1	9.2	127.6	4.2	10	39.4	23.1	40.5	14.8	45.1	63.7	522.8	967
2025	150.4	2.5	0.1	9.8	115.8	4.3	9.2	38.5	24.1	37.9	13.9	41.3	62.5	510.3	891
PERCENT
PERCENT URBANIZATION
1969-71	8	3	62	12	17	10	27	23	4	33	22	13	18	17	20
1979-81	10	4	60	10	22	13	34	24	6	37	22	17	19	20	20
1988-90	14	5	58	12	29	19	42	25	10	42	21	23	22	25	21
2000	18	8	59	15	37	25	50	28	14	49	24	29	27	31	25
2010	24	11	64	20	45	33	58	35	20	56	31	37	35	38	32
2025	36	19	73	30	56	45	67	47	31	66	43	49	47	49	44
PERCENT INCREASE
TOTAL
1969-71 TO
1989	69	35	98	14	50	48	61	51	63	62	36	54	53	55	38
1988-90 TO
2025	109	107	57	78	46	93	60	78	87	83	44	47	71	71	41
URBAN
1969-71 TO
1989	195	125	86	14	156	181	150	64	306	107	30	172	87	127	45
1988-90 TO
2025	437	687	98	346	181	356	155	235	480	187	194	214	286	232	195
RURAL
1969-71 TO
1989	58	32	119	14	29	33	28	47	52	41	38	36	45	40	36
1988-90 TO
2025	55	77	1	42	-10	31	-9	26	43	7	4	-2	23	17	0

Once animal inventories are calculated, total metabolizable energy (ME) and crude protein (CP) requirements are determined by multiplying inventory by ME and CP per head. Large animals as well as sheep and goats each have four performance levels - maintenance, minimal growth, adequate performance, and a high level of performance - one of which is chosen for the current and projection years. Energy and protein requirements for pigs are determined by obtaining a weighted (by size, sex, etc.) dry-matter requirement per pig in inventory and then multiplying that requirement by the number of pigs in inventory. Poultry requirements are determined in a similar fashion.

There are two systems for pigs and poultry, commercial and backyard, each with its own set of parameters. The term commercial does not necessarily mean large scale, only that it is intensive and employs modern production techniques.

There are two projections, termed robust economy and sluggish economy. The robust projection is based on the economy of the country or region performing well. This high growth alternative includes major investment in agriculture, both in capital and human resource development. As part of government's considerable emphasis on agriculture, policies are appropriate and conducive to technology development, transfer, and adoption. The general economy stimulates the agricultural sector to produce more - and to increase productivity.

Efficiency in production has a major influence on the quantity of food animal products consumed. If producers are quite efficient then cost will be reduced, which, when passed through to consumers, leads to a greater quantity consumed. This is especially true of the so-called superior goods, such as livestock commodities. Animal productivity, i.e., physical efficiency, is a human rather than animal-based phenomenon, since it is humans who develop technology, evaluate it for appropriateness under given conditions, promote its adoption, and are the ultimate providers of technology and management practices. The impact of management can be measured by production variables such as slaughter weight, offtake, eggs per hen, mortality, etc.

Economic growth goes together with expanded research, an improved extension service, closer links between research and extension, and provision of more adequate credit. Evaluation of developed countries demonstrates that in a growth economy there is a shift to greater commercialization and more reliance on a market-oriented system. The path to development includes improvement of government agencies to better disseminate information as well as carry out research. These efforts result in reduced production costs which then lead to lower commodity prices. Consumers respond by expanding purchases of these commodities - and economic development continues its upward spiral.

The sluggish-economy projection is based on relatively low economic growth. This alternative is characterized by occasional periods of political and economic instability, and a reactive rather than proactive approach to agriculture. Consequently, agriculture modernizes at a slower pace than the growth projection, resulting in less productive efficiency. Production costs decline more slowly than in the robust projection, and, as a result, prices to consumers do not fall as fast, leading to lower levels of consumption. Slow economic growth also implies slower shifts in tastes and preferences to livestock products from more traditional commodities such as grains. Agriculture is mechanized at a slower pace than in a growth economy so work-animal inventory continues at a relatively high level. These two projections recognize that animal productivity is the primary determinant of livestock inventory, apart from human population and per capita production of products.

As discussed, the parameters and resultant projections are not intended as forecasts. However, they are based on well-reasoned analysis. This simulation model is particularly robust, as productivity changes are incorporated with demand side analysis. The two projections and the parameters chosen provide an indication of the upper and lower bounds of animal inventory and feed requirements for the three projection years chosen, 2000, 2010, and 2025.

Production per capita projections for Southeast Asia are based on income elasticities developed for the region (Simpson 1994) and an evaluation of the impact of changes in production technology and industry structure or prices. More specifically, as income increases, demand for most animal products increases, which is indicated by an outward shift in the demand curve. As a result, prices increase in the short term, but over the longer term the additional demand leads to changes in structure of industry and improved management practices. For some of these practices, scale economies are important which means an inevitable increase in size. As costs are reduced, relative retail prices decline providing further incentive for expanded consumer purchases of those commodities.

As urbanization takes place, and mechanization increases along with changes in relative production costs, per capita consumption of livestock commodities grows at different rates. Great cost savings are possible in poultry production. Therefore, per capita consumption of poultry meat and eggs is expected to grow rapidly, even in the economy sluggish projection. However, international experience shows that as income increases, per capita consumption of commodities like goat meat stagnates or declines. Substantial cost reductions are possible in modernized pork production, while much less cost reduction is possible in beef production.

Supply-side parameters are quantitative indicators of technology and management adoption. Offtake, for example, embodies such diverse variables as marketing strategies, changes in production systems, and daily gain. Each of the parameters reflects a judgement based on past experience in the region, lessons from other regions, economic-based rationale, and demand side considerations. Therefore, the parameters are judgments which form a range of relationships based on economic logic rather than the simplistic choice of high and low projections. An objective in the projections is to obtain a balance between the demand and supply side. Thus the parameters should be viewed as a whole when evaluating the results.

Total red meat and poultry meat production in the thirteen Southeast Asian countries increased 50 percent in the 10 years from 1969-71 to 1979-81 (Table V.6). It then increased 54 percent from 1979-81 to 1988-90 and is projected to grow another 54 percent by the year 2000 in the sluggish economy projection. The robust economy projection is for 65 percent more production of red meat and poultry by the year 2000. The sluggish alternative is for red meat and poultry production to increase three and a half times between 1988-90 and 2025, from 5.9 million tons to 20.8 million tons, as compared to the robust projection for 25.7 million tons, 24 percent more than the sluggish projection.

The number of cattle and buffalo are projected to increase from only 89 million head in 1988-90 to 103 million head in 2025 in the sluggish projection, and 108 million head in the robust projection, despite substantial regional increases in meat production (Table V.7). This projection is explained by expanded productivity in cattle, as they are increasingly viewed as meat rather than work animals, and a reduction in buffalo numbers due to mechanization. Cattle productivity increases from 14.0 kg per head inventory in 1988-90 to 22.6 kg in the sluggish economy projection, and 27.5 kg in the robust economy projection (Table V.8).

The inventory projections are provided on an animal unit (AU) basis because the differences in sizes of animals makes comparisons somewhat difficult (Table V.9).

Table V.6 Per Capita Livestock Production and Total Production, Southeast Asia, Economy Sluggish and Robust Projections to 2025

			BASE MIDPOINT OF THREE YEAR AVG		ECONOMY SLUGGISH ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE				ECONOMY ROBUST ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATE
					1.33	.086	.076		1.33	.086	.076		DIFFERENCE ROBUST OVER SLUGGISH
ITEM			1988-90		2000	2010	2025		2000	2010	2025		2000	2010	2025
			MILLION										PERCENT
HUMAN POPULATION			582		704	801	923		704	801	923
PER CAPITA PRODUCTION					KG				KG
	BEEF		1.6		1.7	1.8	2						4.5	13.1	35
	PORK		3.9		4.8	5.6	7		5.1	6.2	8.4		5.5	10.8	19.3
	MUTTON		0.1		0.1	0.2	0.2		0.1	0.2	0.2		0	0	0
	GOAT		0.3		0.4	0.4	0.4		0.3	0.3	0.3		-5.3	-14.2	-31.6
	BUFFALO		0.6		0.6	0.5	0.4		0.6	0.5	0.3		5.8	0.6	-19.9
TOTAL RED MEAT			6.5		7.5	8.4	10		7.9	9.2	11.9		4.7	9.3	18.5
	POULTRY		3.6		5.3	7.5	12.5		5.9	8.9	16		11.2	18.9	27.8
TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY			10.1		12.8	15.9	22.5		13.8	18.1	27.9		7.4	13.8	23.7
	MILK
		COW	7.2		9	12	18.8		10	14.8	30.7		11.3	22.6	63.6
		GOAT	0.8		0.8	0.8	0.9		0.8	0.8	0.8		0	-1	-2.5
		BUFFALO	1.5		1.3	1.2	1.1		1.5	1.4	1		19	11.8	-3.9
EGGS			2.2		3.4	5	9		4	5.9	10.6		17.1	17.1	17.1
						ECONOMY SLUGGISH				ECONOMY ROBUST
			1969-71	1979-81	1988-90	2000	2010	2025		2000	2010	2025
TOTAL PRODUCTION			1000 MT
	BEEF		586	706	911	1,177	1,436	1,864		1,229	1,623	2,517	4.5	13.1	35
	PORK		1,102	1,383	2,262	3,402	4,492	6,471		3,590	4,979	7,721	5.5	10.8	19.30
	MUTTON		23	27	52	87	121	161		87	121	161	0	0	0
	GOAT		89	135	171	257	323	372		244	277	255	-5.3	-14.2	-31.60
	BUFFALO		257	322	364	390	384	387		413	387	310	5.8	0.6	-19.90
TOTAL RED MEAT			2,057	2,573	3,760	5,313	6,756	9,256		5,563	7,386	10,964	4.7	9.3	18.50
	POULTRY		470	1,215	2,110	3,726	5,980	11,544		4,142	7,110	14,756	11.2	18.9	27.8
TOTAL RED MEAT AND POULTRY			2,527	3,788	5,870	9,039	12,735	20,800		9,704	14,497	25,720	7.4	13.8	23.7
	MILK		2,146	4,036	5,534	7,791	11,284	19,108		8,677	13,572	30,062	11.4	20.3	57.3
		COW	1,279	2,975	4,193	6,306	9,642	17,310		7,020	11,823	28,323	11.3	22.6	63.6
		GOAT	292	372	469	580	673	799		580	666	779	0	-1.00	-2.5
		BUFFALO	575	689	872	906	969	999		1,078	1,083	960	19	11.8	-3.9
EGGS			514	804	1,281	2,385	4,017	8,336		2,792	4,702	9,759	17.1	17.1	17.1

Table V.7 Livestock Inventory, Southeast Asia, Economy Sluggish and Robust Projections to 2025

			ECONOMY SLUGGISH						ECONOMY ROBUST			DIFFERENCE ROBUST OVER
SPECIES			1969-71	1979-81	1988-90	2000	2010	2025	2000	2010	2025	2000	2010	2025
			1,000 Head									Percent
ASSES			15	17	18	18	18	17	18	17	15	-1.4	-5.3	-12.2
CAMELS			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
HORSES			1,209	1,297	1,427	1,530	1,530	1,419	1,530	1,384	1,103	0	-9.6	-22.3
MULES			15	15	18	22	23	22	21	20	17	-6.7	-15.6	-21.7
SHEEP			6,232	6,310	8,303	13,571	18,098	23,315	13,049	17,127	21,720	-3.8	-5.4	-6.8
GOATS			20,546	25,164	31,659	43,844	50,898	54,338	39,166	41,252	35,179	-10.7	-19	-35.3
CATTLE
	MILK COWS		4,116	6,707	8,050	10,509	10,713	11,540	8,775	9,095	11,329	-16.5	-15.1	-1.8
	DRAFT/BEEF		56,429	56,942	57,036	65,458	67,719	71,039	68,379	68,007	80,298	4.5	0.4	13
		SUBTOTAL	57,061	58,546	65,086	75,968	78,432	82,578	77,154	77,102	91,627	1.6	-1.7	11
BUFFOLO			24,208	25,510	24,286	22,640	21,533	19,974	23,948	21,658	15,996	5.8	0.6	-19.9
TOT.CAT & BUFF			81,269	84,056	89,372	98,606	99,966	102,552	101,102	98,760	107,623
PIGS
	COMMERCIAL				6,424	13,305	27,200	42,750	15,917	33,721	56,656	19.6	24	32.5
	BACKYARD				37,196	46,766	43,057	47,421	45,687	37,418	41,218	-2.3	-13.1	-13.1
		TOTAL	29,403	29,652	43,620	60,071	70,257	90,171	61,604	71,139	97,874	2.6	1.3	8.5
MILLIONS, JANUARY 1
POULTRY
	LAYERS (HENS, ALL KINDS)(1)				197	300	416	768	332	407	851	10.5	13	10.8
	LAYERS, PULLETS, &			HENS,
		ALL KINDS			689	927	1,092	1,782	991	1,190	1,903	6.9	9	6.8
	COMMERCIAL				47	111	234	532	143	294	643	29	25.5	20.8
	BACKYARD				545	688	711	1,014	706	731	998	2.7	2.7	-1.5
	OTHER (2)				96	129	146	236	142	165	262	10.5	13	10.8
BROILERS
	COMMERCIAL				147	278	456	883	301	564	1,160	8.5	23.8	31.4
	BACKYARD				147	167	160	179	143	114	155	-14.6	-28.2	-13.7
	OTHER (2)				25	38	47	79	38	56	102	-0.4	19.6	29.5
	TOTAL				319	483	662	1,141	482	734	1,417	-0.2	10.9	24.2
TOTAL
	CHICKENS		382	490	887	1,243	1,561	2,608	1,293	1,704	2,956	4	9.1	13.3
	OTHER		86	89	121	167	193	315	180	221	364	8.1	14.6	15.5
		TOTAL	468	579	1,008	1,410	1,754	2,924	1,473	1,924	3,321	4.5	9.7	13.6
MILLIONS PRODUCED IN THE YEAR
CULL LAYERS
	COMMERCIAL				24	55	117	268	71	147	323	29	25.5	20.8
	BACKYARD				112	154	171	262	158	176	258	2.7	2.7	-1.5
	OTHER (2)				29	39	47	79	43	53	88	10.5	13	10.8
BROILERS
	COMMERCIAL				588	1,320	2,393	5,077	1,583	3,244	6,962	19.9	35.6	37.1
	BACKYARD				588	711	798	896	678	572	774	-4.6	-28.3	-13.7
	OTHER (2)				99	161	233	396	179	279	512	11.4	19.6	29.5
		TOTAL			1,441	2,439	3,759	6,977	2,712	4,471	8,916	11.2	18.9	27.8

(1) mature layers in production, (2) other is ducks, geese and turkeys

ECONOMY SLUGGISH ECONOMY ROBUST ROBUST OVER SLUGGISH
SPECIES	1969-71	1979-81	1988-90	2000	2010	2025	2000	2010	2025	2000	2010	2025
	KG OF MEAT PER HEAD OF INVENTORY									PERCENT
SHEEP	3.7	4.3	6.3	6.4	6.7	6.9	6.7	7.0	7.4	4.0	5.7	7.3
GOATS	4.3	5.4	5.4	5.9	6.4	6.9	6.2	6.7	7.2	6.1	5.8	5.6
CATTLE	10.3	2.11	4.0	15.5	18.3	22.6	15.9	21.1	27.5	2.9	15.0	21.7
BUFFALO	10.6	12.6	15.0	17.2	17.8	19.4	17.2	17.8	19.4	0.0	0.0	0.0
PIGS	37.5	46.6	51.9	56.6	63.9	71.8	58.3	70.0	78.9	2.9	9.5	9.9
POULTRY (JAN 1 INV)	1.0	2.1	2.1	2.6	3.4	3.9	2.8	3.7	4.4	6.4	8.4	12.5
	KG OF MILK PER HEAD OF INVENTORY
GOATS	14.2	14.8	14.8	13.2	13.2	14.7	14.8	16.2	22.2	11.9	22.2	50.7
MILK COWS	311.0	444	521	600	900	1500	800	1300	2500	33.3	44.4	66.7
BUFFALO	23.8	27	35.9	40	45	50	45	50	60	12.5	11.1	20

Table V.9 Inventory on an animal unit basis, Southeast Asia, Economy Sluggish and Robust Projections to 2025

			ECONOMY SLUGGISH			ECONOMY ROBUST			ROBUST OVER			SLUGGISH
SPECIES			1969-71	1979-81	1988-90	2000	2010	2025	2000	2010	2025	2000	2010	2025
			1000 ANIMAL UNITS									PERCENT
LARGE ANIMALS
	ASSES		11	12	13	13	12	12	12	12	10	-1.4	-5.3	-12.2
	BUFFALO		29,050	30,612	29,143	27,168	25,840	23,968	28,738	25,990	19,195	5.8	0.6	-19.9
	CAMELS		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
	CATTLE
		MILK	4,116	6,707	8,050	10,509	10,713	11,540	8,775	9,095	11,329	-16.5	-15.1	-1.8
		DRAFT/BEEF	56,942	56,942	57,036	65,458	67,719	71,039	68,379	68,007	80,298	4.5	0.4	13
	HORSES		1,451	1,556	1,712	1,836	1,836	1,703	1,836	1,661	1,324	0	-9.6	-22.3
	MULES		18	18	22	27	28	26	25	24	20	-6.7	-15.6	-21.7
		TOTAL	91,074	95,847	95,976	105,011	106,149	108,287	107,765	104,788	112,177	2.6	-1.3	3.6
SMALL RUMINANTS
	GOATS		4,109	5,033	6,332	8,769	10,180	10,868	7,833	8,250	7,036	-10.7	-19	-35.3
	SHEEP		1,246	1,262	1,661	2,714	3,620	4,663	2,610	3,425	4,344	-3.8	-5.4	-6.8
	TOTAL		5,356	6,295	7,992	11,483	13,799	15,530	10,443	11,676	11,380	-9.1	-15.4	-26.7
TOTAL AU			96,430	102,142	103,968	116,494	119,948	123,818	118,208	116,464	123,557	1.5	-2.9	-0.2
PERCENT
PRODUCTION OF TOTAL
LIVESTOCK UNITS
LARGE			94.4	93.8	92.3	90.1	88.5	87.5	91.2	90	90.8	1.1	1.7	3.8
SMALL			5.6	6.2	7.7	9.9	11.5	12.5	8.8	10	9.2	-10.4	-12.9	-26.6
TOTAL			100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100