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Traditional early warning systems in East Africa


Pastoralists need to know how to interpret the behaviour of animals and plants, which serve as valuable indicators for subtle fluctuations in temperature and humidity. Appropriately interpreted, local pastoralists can forecast major rains four weeks before their arrival

Traditional early warning systems represent the whole body of knowledge developed early in the 1900s among pastoral communities to anticipate the coming of rains and thus enable them to mitigate the effects of drought on their livestock - the backbone of their livelihoods.

The recent study by Dr Christopher Pratt of Tufts University (United States) shows the importance of traditional early warning systems and coping strategies in pastoralist communities of East Africa.

Early warning indicators

Given the proximity and interaction humans have with livestock, most of the indicators relating to drought come from the observed behaviour of domesticated animals with livestock, particularly camels and cattle

Dr Pratt states in his study that "traditional early warning systems are based on three precepts:

In order to implement some of the traditional drought mitigation practices based on the understanding of climatic changes as described above, early warning indicators have been used by the Kenyan-Somali pastoral communities of East Africa.


A Tugen herdsman´s flock of sheep at a water-hole near Lamalock, Baringo District, Rift Valley Province of Kenya
FAO/ 10941/F. MATTIOLI

Two categories of indicators are discernible:

Seasons: The seasons represent one of the most important pastoralists' traditional early warning indicators. Knowledge of the seasons, when and when not to expect rains, helps to reach conclusions on the probability of drought and the subsequent course of action on the part of pastoralists.

Multiyear cycles: Until very recently, multiyear cycles of drought and rain were regarded as a strong indication of the weather that might be expected in a given year. These cycles represented longer-term weather patterns in the region as observed over past centuries. As an example, fluctuations in ocean temperatures off the coast of the western Americas, commonly known as El Niño, have roughly followed a multiyear cycle until the past decade, with decreases in ocean temperatures resulting in above average precipitation for those years.

Similarly, these Kenyan-Somali drought cycles are products of centuries of observations handed down through oral tradition, which nevertheless have to be taken with care, i.e. as rough estimates, in consideration of the complexities of weather systems, and particularly following the erratic weather patterns of the last decade. The most commonly cited indicator for drought is the cycle of 8, 15 and 50 years; i.e. during each of these cycles, drought has often been observed regularly in their communities.

Drought, livestock and favourable conditions for mobility

In the past, the single, most important traditional coping strategy was mobility, with pastoral populations moving from areas of mean resources to areas with improved resource conditions. Indeed, mobility also allows pastoralists to continue their livelihoods with minimum livestock losses, and is facilitated by faster pasture regeneration and faster livestock recovery. The better condition of the physical environment in the past (less environmental stress) and lower population also contributed as favourable conditions for mobility.

Today, as drought becomes more frequent in different regions (droughts were registered in 1991-92, 1994 and 1999-2001, and the El Niño floods in 1997, causing huge livestock destitution), populations and the number of permanent settlements and watering points are on the increase, thanks to development processes. Greater human and livestock populations translate into limited resource availability, and the decline in the constitution of livestock among pastoral communities. Therefore, to preserve the life of pastoralism and traditional early warning systems, development strategies, e.g. the promotion of agriculture in and around new administrative centres within the East African pastoral communities, need to be pursued with greater attention.

Pastoralism, oral tradition and modern early warning mechanisms

Traditional strategies employed by pastoralists to mitigate the effects of drought have evolved over the years under very different conditions.

On the merits of pastoralism, Dr Pratt concludes: "Processes of urbanization, development, formal education and changing religious ideologies have all contributed to the decreasing practice of traditional early warning systems and coping strategies. Because this knowledge is in many cases preserved as an oral tradition, the increasing absenteeism of youth from pastoral communities and the decreasing practice of traditional knowledge pose a threat to the continued existence of this body of experience. This is cause for concern because the number of emergency responses available to communities has been reduced. Conditions that exist today, particularly access to relief food or other resources supplied by the government or external agencies, may change in the future. Likewise, climatic or other conditions may improve or deteriorate. Given these uncertainties, it is important that these communities have as many choices as possible to employ in their overall survival and livelihood strategies. It is important to preserve these practices in some form."

Source: C. Pratt. 2001. Traditional early warning systems and coping strategies for drought among pastoralist communities. Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford, MA, United States.


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