SCENARIO ANALYSIS

The aim of scenario analysis is to project the forest economy into possible future states by the year 2020 and to determine the degree and direction of change that is, the intervention that must be adopted in forestry. This is so as to be in a position to deal effectively with anticipated changes in the rest of the economy by the year 2020.

FOSA is process for analysing the future potential of the forestry sector to contribute to the well being of African citizens through its economic, social and environmental functions. FOSA will analyse the status, trends and driving forces shaping African forestry; provide a region-wide vision of the sector to the year 2020; and identify policies, programme and investment options that will help move the sector in desirable directions.

The country is experiencing a new democratic process.

Gross domestic products is growing only minimally

The economy is still largely dependent on petroleum with the non oil sectors contributing only minimally to GDP

The economy is import dependent

Unemployment rate is high

The economy is modern with a fairly high level of literacy

Infrastructures are modern but serious problems are still being experienced in power (electricity) generation with a crippling effect on industrial production;

Population is large and investment is not high enough to absorb the teeming population into gainful employment.

Poverty at the rural levels is high and wages are low at the urban centres.

The continuous depreciation of the Naira presents grave problems for the economy.

The inflation rate is still high.

Labour unrest is a strong trend.

Social unrest is still a problem for the new democracy due to long period of neglect of minority groups.

The wealth of the country is mainly from the South-South and the North is very poverty stricken but with a great potential for agriculture.

The land and environment is very highly devastated by climate??, farming, fires, erosion and population pressures.

Deforestation is a heavy trend.

Corruption is still a bane of economic development and progress.

High crime rate and general insecurity to life and property/investment still poses grave problems.

The economy continues as in the past. No improvement in the investment climate. Unemployment rate continues to rise, the Naira continues to depreciate against the major International currencies, labour unrest and social dis-equilibrium allowed to thrive and corruption continues to flourish. Deforestation continues as observed.

Required Intervention by the Forestry Sector

Strong Signals Public Awareness Campaign

Conservation Drive

Aggressive National Tree Planting Campaign

Private Sector Participation

Agro-forestry

Weak Signals

National Forestry Law

Participatory Approach

NGOs

The economy is still largely driven by the public sector and is petroleum dependent. The value of the Naira continues to depreciate with attendant problems of inflation and high demand for wood and wood products. Drought problems persist in the North with erosion and deforestation problems in the South. Energy problems persist generally.

Government pays decent wages to workers.

Resolves ethnic, religious, and other social crises through:

Social justice

Investment in the agriculture to alleviate poverty in the North

Investment in road and infrastructure in the Niger Delta

Religious tolerance

Investment in industries for greater job opportunities

Population and birth control

Investment in Natural Resources Development
Investment in Health and Education

Investment in electricity and communication

Intervention by Forestry

Strong signals

Research and development in conservation, natural resources and sustainable management

Afforestation Drive

for industrial wood production in the South

fuel wood production in the North

Reforestation

Shelter belts and village woodlots for environmental protection against drought and desertification.

Green belts to protect water sheds and to prevent erosion of land especially in the South East

Agro-forestry drives to mitigate land use shift from Forestry to Agricultural crop cultivation.

Extension and Publicity

Training of Forestry personnel in Extension Education

Public awareness campaign

Community participation in Forest Management

Seminars and Workshops

Inter-sectoral Dialogue on Land use and Land use Planning

Conferences and Lectures

Private Forestry

Incentives for afforestation

Promotion of efficient wood utilisation and alternative energy campaign

Production of sawdust briquettes.

Weak Signals

Funding

Local funding

NGOs

Private Forestry

Community participation

The country adopts a trade liberalisation policy

Carries out a vigorous export drive

The export processing zones are fully operational

Foreign capital and investment are attracted to the country

Quality control instituted in domestic manufacturing

Price stability; The Naira appreciates in value and stabilises

Foreign debt burden minimised and external reserves appreciates

Economy less import dependent

Government creates conducive environment for foreign and private sector investments in the country.

Electricity generation and telecommunication deregulated.

Increase investment in Health and Education

Investment in rural infrastructure and rural employment

Schools and hospitals established at Local Government Levels

Investment in rural cottage industries

Investment in agricultural crop processing and storage

Investment in food processing industries

Increased productivity and decent wages

Investment in local technology development

Crime wave reduced and level of insecurity minimised

Kerosene and domestic fuel prices stabilize

A measure of development is attained in the macro-economy but deforestation is still a problem.

Strategy for Intervention by the Forestry Sector

Heavy signals

Production and promotion of non wood forestry products

Promotion of participatory approach in forestry

Research in non wood processing and marketing

Forest resources management and conservation

Afforestation for industrial wood; for export; for fuel wood

Development of National parks for game, recreation and tourism

Agro-forestry

Public awareness campaign

National Forestry Law and Enforcement of forestry policy

Sectoral dialogue on Land use and Land use planning

Domestication and multiplication of non wood forestry products

Wood waste reduction and establishment of pilot small diameter log mills for demonstration purposes.

Weak Signals

Community participation

NGOs

CBOs

Tourism

Export

forest villages

community wood lots

of non wood forest products

Divest all government owned companies and investments

Adopt a trade liberalisation policy

Private sector led economy

Effective taxation policy

Investment in Health care and Education

Forest industries expand with attendant deforestation

Increasing kerosene and domestic fuel prices

High inflation rate

Labour and industrial unrest

Weak technological base and decline in the level of infrastructure

Strategy for Intervention by the Forestry Sector

Strong signals

Divest forest plantations

Evolve a commensurate pricing policy for forest products

Promote afforestation and private ownership

Afforestation for export market e.g. Teak plantations

Conservation education

Research and Training

Weak Signals

Private sector investment and funding

NGOs

Foreign capital

The Nigerian economy is fully developed by 2020 as a result of:

A well planned economy

Appropriate monetary and fiscal policies

Discovery of a mechanism for economic conflict management and resolution

Introduction and enforcement of a population and birth control policy

Investment in renewable natural resources development and management

Investment in Health care, Housing and Education

Investment in infrastructure especially in the Niger Delta

Investment in agricultural storage and food processing

Development of rural cottage industries

Iron and Steel Industries fully operational with functional machine tools and parts factories

Deregulation of electricity supply

Deregulation of telecommunication industry

Establishment of the rule of law and social justice

Investment in crime detection and law enforcement

Evolution of a national ideology

Fight against corruption and indiscipline

Minimise crime and insecurity to life and property

Investment in industry and mass mobilization for employment and productivity

creating conducive environment for private sector investment

provision of decent wages

enhancement of labour productivity

Investment in research and development and facilitation of local innovations and technologies

Modernisation of agriculture

improve seeds

intensive cultivation

mechanisation

enhanced farm inputs

fertiliser

insecticides, pesticides etc.

Irrigation

Introduction of fully dynamic wages and pricing policy

Adoption of an aggressive export drive with fully operational export processing zones and quality control

External debt burden minimised, import dependence minimised and external reserves maximised.

Modernisation of the Public Service especially the Civil Service

revival of professionalism and ethics

introduction of national reorientation

establishment of effective planning outfits and culture at National, State and Local

Government Levels

to manage the activities of the Private Sector

to resolve conflicts arising from policy implementation

The economy is developed by 2020 and the level of enlightenment is high. Religious, ethnic, labour and other social unrest including crime rate are minimised. The economy is fully deregulated and diversified. There is a supportive technological base. The level of literacy is high and there are supportive infrastructure in terms of good roads, water, electricity, housing and hospitals. Oil is de-emphasised and the demand for renewable natural resources including wood and non-wood forest products is on the increase. Though the standard of living is high, the problems associated with climate and industry are of serious concerns. In this respect, drought continues to pose grave problems in the North while erosion is serious in the South especially the South East. Industrial emissions from factories also pose grave problems. There is generally land hunger.

Strategy for Intervention by the Forestry Sector

Strong signals

Aggressive afforestation and reforestation

Development of non wood forest products

Conservation for biodiversity

Promotion of Private Forestry

incentives

progressive land tenure policies

introduction of a commensurate pricing policy

private ownership of forest produce

Agro-forestry

introduction of forest villages

Research and Development

Publicity and enlightenment campaign

Development of industrial plantations

Sectoral dialogue

Wildlife Husbandry

Regional/International cooperation and collaboration

Forestry Education and training

Data collection and Forestry Planning

Weak Signals

Participatory approach

Forestry Trust Fund

Private Forestry

Global warming and climate change

Small diameter log mills

Integrated Land use planning

National Forestry Legislation

NGOs