27. Document No. STAT/FOOD/4, “Advance Estimates of Crop Production and their Use for Food Security in India” was presented by Mr. G.S. Ram.
28. The Experts were given the background of the methodology of preparing advance estimates of food production in India. The system was being revamped with recent initiatives such as setting up of National Crop Forecasting Centre and the use of remote sensing data in addition to agrometeorology and land-based observations.
29. It was reported that the necessity of having the food security at global level was first recognized at the World Food Conference in 1974. India embarked on the path of food security much before the Second World War by setting up Public Distribution System (PDS) to supply foodgrains and other essential food articles at cheaper rates. India’s food policy regime was based on a systems approach supported by integrated policies of production, pricing, procurement, buffer stocks, PDS and international trade. Of all these factors, the generation of advanced estimates of food production was most crucial in managing the food policy as all other policies were vitally determined by such statistics.
30. It was mentioned that India had a very good system to collect, collate and compile official estimates of crop production although there were also a number of limitations in terms of accuracy, timeliness and crops coverage. Moreover, the generation of advance estimates of production was not adequately provided for in the system.
31. The Experts noted that with a view to meeting policy needs of the country, advance estimates were being framed periodically. The zero base forecast was prepared before the start of the crop year which was based on the long-range forecast of monsoon. This was a model-based exercise.
32. It was reported that the first official forecast based on the information received from the states was prepared in the month of September coinciding with the National Rabi Workshop. The second advance estimates were framed in the month of January and these were used in preparing advance estimate of GDP. The third advance estimate was prepared in April coinciding with the National Kharif Workshop. The fourth or the provisional final estimate prepared in June was based on reports received from State Agricultural Statistical Authorities at the National Workshop. All these advance estimates were validated with data from remote sensing, market intelligence and model-based exercise.
33. The system had been revamped with the setting up of a National Crop Forecasting Centre (NCFC) which would likely culminate in yet another project called FASAL (Forecasting Agricultural Output Using Space, Agro-meteorology and Land-based Observations).
34. It was reported that in India monthly status report on agriculture including advance estimates of crop production had been released since January 1999 and there were plans to disseminate this information through Webpages.
35. It was felt that the crop forecast formed an essential component of food security system and it was recommended that the system should be extended and formalized to district level so that authenticity of the forecasted figures could be improved. It was also recommended that along with the crop forecast, data on food situation could be additionally collected in order to address food security concerns in a timely manner.
