PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF 1995 CEREAL PRODUCTION IN WESTERN AFRICA

This document presents a preliminary assessment of the 1995 cereal harvests in the nine CILSS countries and in the other coastal countries of West Africa. It is based on information available to the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) as of early November 1995 and, for the CILSS countries, on production estimates provided by the national services and examined by Crop Assessment Missions. These Missions comprised experts from the GIEWS, the CILSS Diagnostic Permanent Project (DIAPER) and the Agrhymet Centre of Niamey, except the Mission to The Gambia which was undertaken exclusively by FAO. These Missions worked closely with the national services responsible for gathering and examining cereal production data, meteorological information, crop protection, hydrology and, when they exist, with the national early warning systems and/or market information systems. They also met representatives of the main donors. FAO and CILSS worked closely together on the matter, at both field and headquarters level, and the figures in the report are those generally agreed by both secretariats.

These figures have been presented at the annual meeting of the "network for prevention of food crises in the Sahel" organized by the Club du Sahel (OECD) and CILSS which took place this year on 23rd-24th November at Niamey, in the Aghrymet centre, for the tenth anniversary of the network.

At the time of the assessment, rainfed crop harvesting was underway or nearing completion in most of the countries. Early millet and maize had generally already been gathered, but long-cycle varieties of cereals and late-planted crops were still maturing or about to be harvested in some areas, while irrigated crops were at a less advanced stage. Rice was still being transplanted in the swamp and low-lying areas of Guinea-Bissau and southern Senegal. The planting of flood recession crops was underway and will continue throughout November. The forecasts made in this report are therefore preliminary and subject to revision.

Above average harvests have been gathered in the Sahel in 1995. Reflecting generally adequate growing conditions and rather limited pest attacks during 1995 rainy season, good harvests are anticipated in all CILSS countries except Cape Verde.

The 1995 aggregate cereal production of the nine CILSS countries has been estimated by FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions at 9.6 million tons which is well above average, although somewhat below 1994 record output. Record crops are anticipated in The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, while output is close to previous record levels of 1994 in Mauritania and of 1993 in Senegal. Production decreased slightly in Burkina Faso and Niger. It decreased significantly in Chad and Mali but remained above average while a below-average crop is expected in Cape Verde.

Following two successive years of good harvests, the food supply situation is expected to remain generally satisfactory in 1995/96 although some transfers will be necessary from surplus areas to cover the needs of traditionally deficit areas.

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