III / (iii) 1995 Preliminary Cereal Production Forecast for CILSS Countries

In the second half of October, a series of joint FAO/CILSS in-country Crop Assessment Missions were mounted (The Gambia Mission solely by FAO) to review the 1995 cropping season and examine the preliminary cereal production estimates that had been made by the national agricultural statistics services.

Cereal production in 1995 for the nine CILSS countries in West Africa is provisionally estimated at almost 9.6 million tons, which is 4 percent lower than in 1994 but 14 percent more than the 1988-1994 average. The production trend for each country since 1987 is given in the following table:

Table 1: CILSS Countries - Cereal Production 1987 to 1994 and Preliminary Forecast for 1995 (in thousand tons gross basis, with rice in paddy)

Country	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	Preliminary 1995 forecast	1995/1987-94(%)
Burkina Faso	1 468	2 073	1 952	1 518	2 455	2 477	2 557	2 492	2 448	115
Cape Verde	21	17	10	11	8	10	12	3	9	78
Chad	549	808	617	601	812	977	617	1 175	933	121
Gambia	92	100	97	90	111	96	104	106	116	117
Guinea-Bissau	150	147	149	169	180	171	180	190	201	120
Mali	1 637	2 196	2 155	1 771	2 414	1 809	2 228	2 457	2 178	105
Mauritania	150	173	183	103	104	94	162	200	193	132
Niger	1 439	2 399	1 843	1 476	2 468	2 359	1 803	2 438	2 385	118
Senegal 1/	1 054	867	1 067	950	970	856	1 134	964	1 109	113
TOTAL 2/	6 600	8 800	8 100	6 700	9 500	8 800	8 800	10 000	9 600	114

These figures should be viewed as preliminary as the surveys were generally made before the end of the harvest and include forecasts for recession and off-season crops. In some countries, the rainy season ended with fairly substantial rains in October, which may enhance yields but may also have caused problems during crop ripening and harvesting. These estimates may therefore have to be revised in the coming months, but there is unlikely to be a change in the overall trend indicating an average to above-average production for the sub-region as a whole.

The FAO/CILSS assessments suggest above-average harvests in all CILSS countries except Cape Verde. Record crops are anticipated in The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, while output is close to previous record levels of 1994 in Mauritania and 1993 in Senegal. Production decreased slightly from 1994 level in Burkina Faso and Niger. It decreased significantly in Chad and Mali but remained above the 1987-94 average.

The breakdown of 1995 cereal production by commodity in each country is given in Table 2. Compared with 1994 production of coarse grains generally decreased over the entire Sahel, while that of rice increased, notably in Burkina Faso and Niger.

Table 2: CILSS Countries - Preliminary Forecast of 1995 Production by Cereal (in thousand tons)

Country	Millet	Sorghum	Maize	Rice (paddy)	Wheat	Others1/	Total2/
Burkina Faso	731	1 155	366	81	-	16	2 448
Cape Verde	-	-	9	-	-	-	9
Chad	265	403	81	66	3	115	933
Gambia 3/	59	13	19	25	-	-	116
Guinea-Bissau	35	16	15	133	-	2	201
Mali	789	671	239	458	7	14	2 178
Mauritania	8	130	1	54	-	-	193
Niger	1 999	307	4	69	6	-	2 385
Senegal 4/	658	145	117	185	-	4	1 109
TOTAL 2/	4 544	2 840	851	1 071	16	151	9 573

Source: FAO/CILSS
1/ Includes fonio, berbere and recession crops in Chad.
2/ Totals may not add up due to rounding.
3/ FAO Mission estimates.
4/ Including estimates for recession crops.

(iv) Country-by-Country Summaries

Burkina Faso: The rainy season began with some sporadic precipitation in the south in April, and in May it extended over most areas. In the east and north of the country, rainfall was irregular over both space and time and the first rains were not recorded until June in the Sahel region. During July the Sahelian zone and western areas experienced a significant drop in rainfall with weak and poorly distributed precipitation, while the southern half of the country received above-average cumulative rains. In August, most of the country witnessed an increase in precipitation, except in the region of Dedougou. In September there was a marked general decline, but cumulative rainfall for the season remained generally above the 1961 - 1990 average.

Land preparation and planting commenced in May without notable delays and continued in most of the country during June. Localized dry spells in the north and centre of the country necessitated re-sowing. In July, crop development was satisfactory in the southern half of the country, while in the centre and Sahelian areas, localized droughts once again led to re-sowing in some areas. Crops throughout the country benefited from abundant rains in August although development was late in some northern villages. Yields of late planted crops have been negatively affected by the cessation of the rains in October and for this reason the north of the country is expected to have a decline in cereal production.

Pasture regeneration began in June without notable delays, except in some northern provinces which had to wait until July. Livestock conditions were generally favourable in the country as a whole and forage was abundant in August. Localized outbreaks of infectious diseases were rapidly contained. Pasture availability declined at the end of the season. Globally, the replenishment of ground water resources has been lower than last year, posing the risk of imminent water shortages in the north of the country.

The pest situation has been relatively calm this year. The main pest problems have been grasshoppers and cantharides. No Desert Locusts were reported. Pockets of drought led to the development of army worms. Infestations of insects also caused some crop losses.

The FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission at the end of October estimated 1995 cereal production at a total of 2 448 500 tons, a fall of some 2 percent from the record level of 1994. Millet production fell by some 100 000 tons, while sorghum increased slightly (by 20 000 tons). Maize production increased by about 15 000 tons and that of rice by about 20 000 tons. Production declined in 18 provinces, notably in Passore, Soum and Yatenga Provinces where the reduction exceeded 20 percent. In contrast, 12 provinces had an increase in production, particularly Kadiogo, Kenedougou, Nahouri and Sissili.

Cape Verde: The season began prematurely, with the first rains falling on Fogo Island during the first decade of July and in Santiago and Brava Islands during the second decade. Following a pause in the rains in almost all islands at the end of July, rainfall recommenced at the beginning of August, especially in the southern islands, spreading in mid-August except in the arid zones of Santiago. Sufficient rains for planting were received one month after the normal planting date in the northern islands of Santo Antao and Sao Nicolau. In September rains were generally light except in the northern islands and the mountainous areas of the south. In the arid, semi-arid and coastal zones, low rainfall combined with high temperatures hit crops at the flowering stage causing some losses. In general, rains were well distributed over time and space in the humid and semi-humid areas of the south. (Santiago, Fogo and Brava) and poorly distributed in the other islands and arid areas of the south.

The first rains in July benefited the germination of dry planted maize and facilitated land preparation for wet planting. Wet planting of maize and haricot beans was not possible until mid-August. These crops displayed good vegetative growth in the humid zones where water availability was sufficient and harvest prospects are quite good there. In contrast, in the arid zones, less favourable rainfall, particularly in September, hit crops at the reproductive stage and could lead to reduced yields.

The development of biomass was relatively prompt and uniform throughout the agro-ecological zones. Forage production is expected to increase this year in the Islands of Santiago, Brava and Fogo. Elsewhere production will be negligible, except in humid zones where banana and cassava by-products will go some way to meeting livestock feed demand.

In most of the country the pest situation was relatively calm. However, pest attacks, particularly of Senegalese grasshopper, were recorded in most of the southern island in July. Infestations were also recorded in the northern islands in August and September, notably in Santo Antao. The cricket situation was not of particular concern except in Fogo and Brava Islands where, despite control measures, bean yields were adversely affected.

The FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in mid-October estimated total 1995 cereal production at some 9 000 tons, three times the reduced crop of 1994 and close to the average for the past five years.

Chad: The rains commenced in May in the Sudanian zone, increasing from the second decade of June in the South but remaining light in the Sudano-Sahelian zone. Abundant rainfall was received in July although it was somewhat erratic in parts of the Sudanian zone. The rainy season commenced in the Sudano-Sahelian zone in July but tailed off in the northern half of the country in the third decade. Adequate precipitation was recorded throughout the country in August. September rainfall declined from the second decade onwards especially in the Sahelian zone although some rain was received up to the beginning of October. Cumulative rainfall was below last year's in the northern half of the country and in the Moyen-Chari and above last year's in the rest of the country. Cumulative rainfall was below average only in Kanem and the Lake prefecture.

Sowing took place up to July in the Sudanian zone. Some rice crops were flooded by heavy rains after the first sowing necessitating late re-sowing. A total of some 3 400 hectares of rice were destroyed by the floods, but, after this difficult start, the season progressed well. Abundant ground water supplies in low lying areas permitted an increase in the areas planted to recession sorghum crops. In the Sudano-Sahelian zone the first sowings took place in June in Chari-Baguirmi and Guera and at the beginning of July in Ouaddai. The poor rainfall distribution necessitated widespread re-planting right up to the end of August, especially in Chari-Baguirmi. Crops developed well in August but in September grain-eating birds and grasshoppers caused significant damage to the maturing crop. In the Sahelian zone no sowing was possible until mid-July but the poor rainfall distribution necessitated re-planting up to the second decade of August. The most drought affected areas are Kanem, northern Batha and Biltine where numerous fields were turned over to livestock for grazing as pastures were also affected.

The Desert Locust situation remained relatively stable during hibernation although some isolated adults were sighted in the east at the beginning of the season. Grasshoppers were reported in several regions, most notably Ouaddai, Biltine Batha, Kanem, Guera and the northern part of Chari-Baguirmi. Significant losses of millet and sorghum were reported. Beetles (Cantharides and Pachnodas), stem borer and grain eating birds were also reported in several regions, causing losses of millet, sorghum and maize.

The FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission of mid-October estimated the total cereal production at 932 700 tons, of which 439 100 tons are from the Sahelian zone and 493 600 tons from the Sudanian zone. At this level, total cereal production is 21 percent down from the record of 1994 but still above average. Output of all cereals has fallen from last year's level, with a particularly marked decline in maize production.

The Gambia: The first rains were received in the second decade of May but only the Eastern and Middle Thirds registered significant quantities. The country was generally dry from the last decade of May to the first of June. It was only from the second decade of June that heavy, regular and well distributed rain began throughout the country. Between mid-June and mid-October, the 12 synoptic stations of the country registered satisfactory rainfall except for few pockets of short dry spells reported in July and September in LRD, CRD South and URD.

As of 20 October, cumulative rainfall was below last year's but the amounts recorded were above normal in all stations with the exception of Yundum in Western Division and Jenoi in LRD. Due to the good distribution of the rains, generally better than 1994, soil moisture remained adequate and growing conditions were satisfactory for all the crops.

The pasture and water points situation is quite good countrywide. The pest situation was generally calm with only very few attacks, without damage, of blister beetles on upland rice and millet. Localized manifestations of birds and grasshoppers have been reported.

The FAO Crop Assessment Mission in early November estimated total 1995 cereal production at 116 000 tons against 106 000 tons in 1994, an increase of 10 percent. Coarse grains recorded a significant increase of 19 percent to 91 000 tons against 75 000 tons in 1994. By contrast, paddy rice decreased by 19 percent (25 000 tons against 30 500 tons) due to the decline by one-half of the irrigated rice production.

Guinea-Bissau: The season got off to a slightly late start compared with 1994. Over the country as a whole, significant rainfall was not received until mid-June. Below average precipitation was received in July while in August and September rains were abundant and well distributed over most of the country. Cumulative rainfall for the season was greater than last year in the south and less than last year in the south and east but generally sufficient to sustain good plant growth. Furthermore the unusually late tail to the season (rains continued to the end of October) resulted in satisfactory development and maturity of rice in low lying and swamp areas, which had been transplanted late.

The regular rains allowed pastures to regenerate and water points are generally sufficient, although water shortages were reported in the east of the country in June.

The pest situation remained generally calm, although localized infestations of insects, grain-eating birds, rodents and fungal diseases were reported.

The FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission which visited the country at the end of October, estimated total 1995/95 cereal production at 200 500 tons compared to 190 500 tons in 1994/95, an increase of over 4 percent and a record. Estimated at 133 000 tons, rice production increased by some 2 percent, while output of minor cereal crops increased by some 14 percent. The increase is largely explained by the well distributed rainfall this year.

Mali: The first rains were received in May in the south and in Nioro and Menaka areas, but elsewhere dry weather persisted until the first decade of July, resulting in a three to six weeks delay in planting. Between the second decade of July and mid-October, rainfall was abundant, frequent and widespread over the whole country. Soil moisture was sufficient to allow good development of crops, excepted in some dry zones. Cumulative rainfall as of 10 October was generally below last year's but remained higher than normal.

With higher swellings than in 1994, the water situation in the Niger and Senegal rivers valleys was favourable for the recession rice crop in Segou and Mopti areas and in Tombouctou and Gao areas. Pastures and water points are generally satisfactory. Nevertheless, watering of herds started to become difficult in the north (in the "cinquième région"), following the draining of pools and water points.

The pest situation has been characterized by the presence of rodents, grain eating birds and desert locusts, as well as African migratory locust, grasshoppers and flower eater insects infestations. Control operations by the plant protection services help to keep crop losses to a minimum.

In mid-October, the FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission has estimated the total 1995 cereal production at 2 178 000 tons. This represents a 11.4 percent decrease compared to the record output of 1994 (2 457 350 tons). This fall is the result of the decrease in the area cultivated (2.4 percent) as well as low yields for all crops. Nevertheless, 1995 cereal production remains 2 percent higher than the 1991-1995 average.

Mauritania: The 1995 rainy season started early in June in the south-west but was delayed by one month in the south and the south-east. Precipitation became abundant over the producing areas in late July and in August. Rains continued up to late September. Rainfall has been poorly distributed in time and space. Thus, until the second dekad of July, cumulative rainfall for 1995 was much lower than in 1994. From the first dekad of August, all agro-pastoral zones received abundant rains. In September, precipitation became less abundant but well distributed throughout the month. Abundant rains during the season allowed a satisfactory replenishment of water reserves in dams and dikes. Therefore, a good output for recession crops is expected.

As rains started late, planting of rainfed crops could only begin in late June in the south-east as late as the end of July in the agro-pastoral zone. The water balance remained satisfactory during the rainy season up to the second dekad of September. However, excessive rains, notably in August, affected work in the field and in low lying areas. As rains ceased early in September, millet and sorghum in the Diéri area, which were flowering/maturing, suffered from water stress in October, as a result of a substantial decrease in soil moisture reserves. Generally good yields can be expected for rainfed crops, notably in the wilayas in the south, which have not been affected by floods or water stress. For irrigated crops, the first watering occurred in Trarza in early July. Later, growing conditions remained favourable, following abundant rains in August. In contrast to last year, the SONADER (Société Nationale de Développement Rural) irrigated areas were cultivated this year.

In all the pastoral zones, abundant fodder production is expected this year. This should cover livestock needs until May 1996. Thereafter, herds will have to migrate in some zones to find sufficient feed.

Desert Locusts swarms were reported in July in many areas, but strong control operations helped to avoid major crop damage. Some Desert Locusts have laid and substantial hopper bands started to appear in October (see details on page 3). A high concentration of Senegalese Locusts was reported in October in the Senegal river valley and in the dunes of the Dieri region. High concentrations of nesting birds have also been reported in some places.

At the end of October, an FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated total cereal production at 192 600 tons. This represents a 3.9 percent decrease compared to the record output of last year. This decline can partly be attributed to a change introduced in the methodology to avoid the overestimation of planted areas in the Dieri.

Niger: The first rains were registered in April in the Dosso and Tahoua departments and in May in Tillabery. There was a weak start to the season in Dosso and the main growing areas of the country did not receive a good soaking until mid-June. In July the rains extended over the agro-pastoral zones. In August rainfall increased over most of the country although it remained below the level of 1994 especially in Dosso and Agadez department. After a brief dry spell at the beginning of September the rains continued to the end of the month, which is beyond the normal cessation in Tillabery and Tahoua departments. Cumulative rainfall was lower than the exceptional 1994 level over all of the country, but below the 1961-1990 average in Dosso, Tahoua and Agadez and above-average elsewhere.

The first wet plantings took place in April in Dosso, Tillabery, Tahoua and Maradi departments and proceeded slowly in the southern areas of the departments in May. The main plantings were, however, undertaken in June. Rains were particularly regular and well distributed for the critical period of July to early September and were largely nocturnal, leading to favourable daytime temperatures and sunlight. No dry spells of ten or more days were reported during this period, except in localized areas of Tillabery, Dosso, Tahoua and Zinder. The end of the rains in September allowed crops to reach maturity without significant losses, although some late planted crops suffered from low soil moisture at the filling stage.

No flooding was reported in the irrigated sector, in contrast to last year and total area increased. Growing conditions were favourable for cultivation in low lying areas.

The rainfall conditions favoured the proliferation of pests. Senegalese Grasshopper infestations necessitated treatment on 380 000 hectares compared to 135 000 hectares last year. Desert Locust hoppers were observed in Agadez and Diffa and there were localized outbreaks of other crop eating insects and birds.

In late October, the FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated total cereal production in 1995 at 2 385 000 tons, which is close to last year's production and above the average. Production of coarse grains decreased while that of rice increased significantly.

Senegal: The 1995 season got off to a normal start with the first rains being received in the extreme south east between 17 and 20 May, in the central southern and central northern areas between 22 and 23 June and in the south (Ziguinchor Region) between 27 and 28 June. Only in Tambacounda was a late start recorded. Apart from some short-lived dry spells in the first decade of July and the second decade of August which affected somewhat crop development, particularly in northern and central areas, rainfall was generally abundant and well-distributed throughout July and August and up to the second decade of September, favouring crop growth. As much of the rainfall was nocturnal, crops benefited from ample sunlight and warm temperatures. Cumulative rainfall in most areas was close to the 1961-1990 norm (It varied from 154 mm in St. Louis region to 1407 mm in Ziguinchor region).

The water supply situation is satisfactory. River levels rose in July and have tended to be higher than last year's, reaching the maximum on the main water courses by September.

The good rains also benefited for pastures. Vegetative development has been strong especially in Ferlo where the vegetation index is much higher than last year, suggesting an increase in forage availability.

The pest situation has remained generally calm. Control operations against Desert Locust covered a total of 33 hectares of residual hopper bands in the Saint-Louis and Louga areas in late August. Low numbers of adult groups and perhaps small swarms had crossed into the Senegal River Valley from the north and slowly moved southwards. A few of these swarms, if mature, laid in areas of green vegetation. A Desert Locust swarm had been reported in northern Senegal in mid-September. Low numbers of adults were present in the north near Podor in early October. Some other pests appeared but crop damage remained limited. The main threat to crops remains possible Desert Locust infestations from Mauritania.

In mid-October, the joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated aggregate 1995 rainfed cereal production at 1 061 000 tons, including rice in paddy equivalent plus 47 700 tons for recession crops. This represents a 17,5 percent rise in production over last year's harvest and a 2 percent rise over 1993 production, mainly as a result of favourable growing conditions for millet and sorghum. Production increased for all cereals except rice which slightly declined (1 percent).

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