Africa report

SOMALIA

Area: 627 000 sq.km
Climate: Semi-arid in the south; rest arid
Population: 6.7 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 120 (1990)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country
Logistics: Inadequate port facilities; serious shortage of fuel and spare parts
Major foodcrops: Maize, sorghum, sesame
Marketing year: September/August; Lean season: June-August
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 45 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

The cereal output of the 1995 main "Gu" season was sharply reduced as a result of lower plantings, in response of low prices of sorghum and localized insecurity, erratic rains at the beginning of the season and serious pest infestation. Preliminary estimates indicate a cereal crop of 172 000 tons, 45 percent down on last year and well below the pre-war average.

The food supply situation remains critical, particularly in Mogadishu. Increases in food prices in the past three months, sporadic inter-clan fighting, the prolonged closure of the Mogadishu port and airport, and the accelerated devaluation of the national currency, continue to affect food security in the country. The food situation in the southern Bay region has been worsened by persistent insecurity and population displacement.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

Wheat Rice Coarse grains Total
Normal production - 9 550 559
Normal imports (incl. re-exports) 70 60 10 140
of which: Structural food aid 40 20 10 70
1995/96 Domestic availability - 2 311 313
1995 Production - 2 282 284
Possible stock drawdown - - 29 29
1995/96 Utilization 115 42 476 633
Food use 115 42 443 600
Non-food use - - 33 33
1995/96 Import Requirement 115 40 165 320
Anticipated commercial imports 55 35 35 125
Food aid needs 60 5 130 195
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges 36 - 3 39
of which: Delivered 6 - - 6
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year) 17 7 66 90
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal: 51
1995/96 import requirement as % of normal: 229
1995/96 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs): 279

TOC