BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
forecast
Change 1995/96
over 1994/95
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/ (. . . . . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (. percentage . )
Rice (paddy) 520 529 529 539 548 + 1.7
Wheat 547 566 564 526 546 + 3.7
Coarse grains 814 871 805 882 797 - 9.7
All cereals 1 881 1 966 1 898 1 947 1 891 - 2.9
Developing countries 1 044 1 073 1 094 1 091 1 120 + 2.7
Developed countries 837 893 804 856 770 - 10.1
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Rice (milled) 14 15 17 19 18 - 5.8
Wheat 108 103 93 93 95 + 2.2
Coarse grains 94 93 83 88 88 + 0.1
All cereals 215 212 193 200 201 + 0.5
Developing countries 130 129 127 143 145 + 1.5
Developed countries 85 83 66 57 56 - 1.7
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/ 13.1 15.2 12.6 8.7 7.6 4/ - 12.2
WORLD UTILIZATION    
Rice (milled) 347 354 359 364 372 + 2.2
Wheat 555 557 569 553 551 - 0.4
Coarse grains 820 840 831 870 832 - 4.3
All cereals 1 721 1 751 1 759 1 787 1 755 - 1.8
Developing countries 956 987 1 008 1 034 1 062 + 2.7
Developed countries 766 764 751 753 693 - 8.0
Per Caput Food Use ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries 169 169 170 169 170 + 0.5
Developed countries 129 129 129 128 126 - 1.1
WORLD STOCKS 5/ ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Rice (milled) 66 67 63 59 57 - 3.6
Wheat 137 144 136 110 107 - 3.0
Coarse grains 134 168 139 147 104 - 29.3
All cereals 337 379 337 316 267 - 15.4
Developing countries 162 167 169 162 160 - 1.5
Developed countries 175 213 169 153 107 - 30.0
Stocks as % of world ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption 19 21 19 18 14-15  
EXPORT PRICES 3/ ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/ 302 278 250 289 336 + 16.3
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter) 150 143 143 157 201 6/ + 25.6 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow) 110 97 113 104 139 6/ + 41.1 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt 18.1 12.1 15.1 19.0 19.1 6/ + 6.4 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/
( . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Roots & tubers production 1/ 313 325 339 340 342 + 0.6
Cereal production 1/ 847 851 876 871 904 + 3.8
Per caput production (kg.) 251 248 250 245 251 + 2.4
Cereal imports 2/ 74 70 65 74 75 + 0.9
of which: Food aid 3/ 11.0 11.1 8.2 7.6 6.5 - 14.0
Proportion of cereal import ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid 15 16 13 10 9

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995. 5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 6/ Average of quotations for July 1995-January 1996. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Includes all food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 345 in 1993), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.

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