1995/96 cereal output set to recover in southern Africa, reflecting favourable rainfall in recent months. Average or above average production is expected in Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, whilst in South Africa a much larger maize crop is in prospect than last year. However, the food supply situation remains tight in several countries, due to drought reduced production in 1994/95.
In Eastern Africa the outlook is favourable for second season crops, following sufficient rainfall, notably in Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda, whilst favourable temperatures in Sudan have encouraged increased wheat plantings. Aggregate cereal production in 1995 increased in the sub- region as a whole, but declined sharply in Somalia and Eritrea, due to unfavourable rainfall and excessive pest damage; both countries will continue to require substantial food assistance in 1996.
Food production remains well below pre-civil war levels in Rwanda, though an increasing number of returnees has boosted agricultural population and allowed a partial recovery. A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission emphasised the continuing need for targeted food assistance in 1996, particularly for recent returnees and vulnerable people. Insecurity in several provinces of Burundi continues to disrupt production. The country remains at the brink of a major food crisis and the need for large scale emergency food interventions in 1996 cannot be ruled out.
The food supply situation remains precarious in Sierra Leone and Liberia, where civil strife continues to disrupt production and distribution activities. A recent FAO crop assessment mission to Liberia found that massive population displacement has reduced rice production to a quarter of the pre war level. Elsewhere in western Africa, the food supply situation is generally satisfactory, reflecting last year’s good harvest. Planting of the 1996 first maize crop is about to begin in most countries.
Crop prospects remain uncertain in several parts of Asia, due to insufficient rainfall. In China the prospect of spring drought could reduce yields in some areas. In Sri Lanka output of the main rice crop could fall by 50 percent in the north, where a large number of internally displaced people are located. More rainfall is needed in Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia for the developing second rice crop. Elsewhere, a below average harvest is again expected in Afghanistan and Iraq, due to a shortage of farm inputs and machinery.
Poor cereal production in Mexico offset recovery in Central America and the Caribbean in 1995, as overall production in the region fell by over 3 million tons to the lowest level since 1989. In South America, although wheat production fell in 1995 by some 2.6 million tons, mostly as a result of drought in Argentina, a record coarse grains crop is forecast.
Winter crops are expected to recover from last year in the CIS, but the final outcome will depend crucially on weather conditions up to harvest, availability of working capital on farms and the timely provision of inputs.
Early prospects for 1996 cereal crops are generally satisfactory in Europe. Winter grain plantings have increased in the EU and in some eastern countries and weather conditions have been mostly favourable so far.
The United States winter wheat area has increased sharply, but harsh conditions in late January may result in abandonment of some crops. Following relaxation of area restrictions, the planting of spring crops (mainly maize) is also projected to increase.
In Australia, a sharp increase in 1995 wheat and winter coarse grain output is reported after a drought-reduced crop in 1994.