Food Outlook 04/96

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1991/92	1992/93	1993/94	1994/95	1995/96 forecast	Change 1995/96 over 1994/95
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(. .percentage . )
Rice (paddy)	520	529	531	538	556	+ 3.3
Wheat	547	566	564	527	545	+ 3.5
Coarse grains	816	871	804	883	791	- 10.5
All cereals	1 882	1 966	1 899	1 948	1 891	- 2.9
Developing countries	1 045	1 073	1 096	1 089	1 122	+ 3.0
Developed countries	838	893	803	859	770	- 10.4
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Rice (milled)	14	15	17	20	18	- 12.2
Wheat	108	103	93	93	96	+ 2.5
Coarse grains	94	93	83	87	88	+ 1.0
All cereals	215	212	193	201	201	+ 0.3
Developing countries	129	129	127	144	144	+ 0.3
Developed countries	85	83	66	57	57	+ 0.2
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	13.1	15.2	12.6	9.2	7.6 4/	- 17.2
WORLD UTILIZATION
Rice (milled)	347	354	359	367	375	+ 2.2
Wheat	553	556	569	552	555	+ 0.5
Coarse grains	818	842	832	871	823	- 5.5
All cereals	1 717	1 752	1 760	1 790	1 752	- 2.1
Developing countries	954	989	1 009	1 038	1 060	+ 2.1
Developed countries	763	763	752	752	692	- 8.0
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	169	170	170	169	169	- 0.1
Developed countries	128	128	129	127	126	- 0.9
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Rice (milled)	65	67	63	55	55	- 0.9
Wheat	137	144	136	112	105	- 6.5
Coarse grains	134	169	139	147	106	- 27.9
All cereals	336	380	338	314	265	- 15.5
Developing countries	162	166	169	160	156	- 2.1
Developed countries	175	214	169	154	109	- 29.4
Stocks as % of world cereal consumption	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Stocks as % of world cereal consumption	19	22	19	18	14-15
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	302	278	250	289	336	+ 16.3
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	150	143	143	157	205 6/	+ 31.4 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	110	97	113	104	146 6/	+ 44.5 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	18.1	12.1	15.1	19.0	17.9 6/	- 3.6 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	313	325	339	340	342	+ 0.6
Cereal production 1/	845	851	878	870	904	+ 3.8
Per caput production (kg.)	251	248	250	245	251	+ 2.4
Cereal imports 2/	74	70	65	73	77	+ 4.5
of which: Food aid 3/	11.0	11.1	8.2	7.9	6.5	- 18.2
Proportion of cereal import covered by food aid	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Proportion of cereal import covered by food aid	15	16	13	11	8

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June.
4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995.
5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
6/ Average of quotations for July 1995-March 1996.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
8/ Includes all food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 345 in 1993), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.