Africa report 05/96 Individual countries

SOUTH AFRICA

Area:	1.22 million sq.km
Climate:	Sub-tropical with rains concentrated in the summer months (November-April); occasional snow in winter over higher parts of plateau and Cape ranges; an average of 120 days frost in the interior plateau
Population:	40.55 million (1995 estimate); GNP per caput U.S.$ 2 902 (1993)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Normally net food exporter, notably maize
Logistics:	Adequate port, rail and road facilities
Major foodcrops:	Maize, wheat
Marketing year:	May/April; Lean season: February-April
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	54 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

Rainfall this year has been normal/above normal in each month of the growing season which runs from October to April. Continued rainfall in February and March has maintained adequate to excessive moisture for filling crops. These heavy rains have resulted in floods and kept large sections of the eastern corn belt and the Kwazulu-Natal too wet for normal crop development. However the rains were generally favourable in the Orange Free State and other areas of coarse grains. Due to excellent summer rains and increased plantings, official estimates put 1996 production of white maize and yellow maize at 5.28 million tons and 4.28 million tons respectively. This is more than double last year's crop of 4.4 million tons comprising 2.1 million tons of white maize and 2.29 million tons of yellow maize. At the forecast level, the country will have a surplus of over 2.5 million tons for potential exports during the 1996/97 marketing year.The 1995 wheat crop is officially estimated at 2.1 million tons, some 300 000 tons higher than the previous year. However, generally wet and cold conditions during the harvest period delayed harvesting, leading to deterioration in quality.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal production	1 835	2	8 830	10 667
Normal exports	434	367	1 717	2 518
of which: Structural food aid	-	-	-	-
1995/96 Domestic availability	2 214	14	7 529	9 757
1995 Production	2 164	2	5 422	7 588
Possible stock drawdown	50	12	2 107	2 169
1995/96 Utilization	2 514	496	8 444	11 454
Food use	2 300	476	4 389	7 165
Non-food use	104	20	3 833	3 957
Re-exports and exports	110	-	222	332
1995/96 Import Requirement	300	482	915	1 697
Anticipated commercial imports	300	482	915	1 697
Donor-financed purchases for export	-	-	134	134
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	56	11	106	173
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal:				71
1995/96 exports as % of normal:				13

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996