Africa report 05/96 Individual countries

ZAMBIA

Area:	741 000 sq.km
Climate:	Tropical wet-dry, one rainy season (November-April)
Population:	9.20 million (1995 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 370 (1993)
Specific characteristics of the country:	Low-income food-deficit country; land-locked country
Logistics:	Imports through Dar es Salaam (Tanzania); inadequate rail and road connections
Major foodcrops:	Maize, roots, tubers
Marketing year:	May/April; Lean season: March-May
Share of cereals in total calorie intake:	70 percent

CURRENT SITUATION

At the end of the second dekad of March, most areas of the country had received normal to slightly below-normal seasonal rainfall. Moderate to heavy rainfall is persisting in many areas, particularly in northern and eastern provinces where waterlogging and yellowing of maize leaves have been reported. More than half of the maize crop is reported to have reached physiological maturity in some areas. Other crops such as sorghum, millet and sunflower are reported to be also doing well.After three years of shortages caused by drought, preliminary reports point to an above-average maize crop, more than double last year’s reduced harvest. The country could even have a maize surplus during the 1996/97 marketing year, as a result of favourable rainfall and an increase in area planted. However, output may be affected in some areas by damage caused by the large grain borer, a relatively new pest introduced into the country in 1993. The extent of infestation is currently unclear.The food supply situation continues to be tight, with stocks at critically low levels, commercial trade constrained by high cost, transportation difficulties and low purchasing power of many households. A total of 117 600 tons of food aid have been pledged by donors, but deliveries so far stand at 37 400 tons.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1995/96 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

	Wheat	Rice	Coarse grains	Total
Normal production	53	9	1 348	1 410
Normal imports (incl. re-exports)	35	4	65	104
of which: Structural food aid	25	-	45	70
1995/96 Domestic availability	50	12	842	904
1995 Production	50	12	820	882
Possible stock drawdown	-	-	22	22
1995/96 Utilization	95	21	1 365	1 481
Food use	90	19	1 175	1 284
of which: local purchase requirement	-	-	(26)	(26)
Non-food use	5	2	190	197
1995/96 Import Requirement	45	9	523	577 1/
Anticipated commercial imports	45	9	435	489
Food aid needs	-	-	88	88
of which: Emergency	-	-	88	88
Current Aid Position
Food aid pledges	-	-	118	118
of which: Delivered	-	-	37	37
Donor-financed purchases	-	-	35	35
of which: for local purchases	-	-	26	26
for export	-	-	9	9
Estimated per caput consumption (kg/year)	10	2	135	147
Indexes
1995 production as % of normal:				63
1995/96 import requirement as % of normal:				555
1995/96 food aid requirement as % of normal (including refugee needs):				126

1/ Excluding food assistance required for refugees.

FAO/GIEWS - April 1996