Food Outlook 06/96

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BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
forecast
Change 1996/97
over 1995/96
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/
(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
(. .percentage . )
Wheat 566 564 527 547 571 + 4.4
Coarse grains 878 810 890 799 883 +10.5
Rice, milled 355 356 361 371 374 + 0.8
(paddy) (529) (531) (538) (552) (557) (+ 0.9)
All cereals (including milled rice) 1 799 1 730 1 778 1 717 1 828 + 6.5
Developing countries 914 934 927 955 977 + 2.3
Developed countries 885 797 851 762 851 +11.7
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat 103 94 94 94 91 - 3.1
Coarse grains 93 85 88 89 84 - 5.3
Rice (milled) 15 17 21 18 18 -
All cereals 210 196 203 201 193 - 3.8
Developing countries 128 130 146 144 142 - 1.7
Developed countries 83 66 57 56 51 - 9.4
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/ 15.2 12.6 9.2 7.6 4/
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat 556 569 553 557 567 + 1.8
Coarse grains 850 839 881 838 860 + 2.6
Rice (milled) 354 359 367 374 378 + 1.1
All cereals 1 760 1 768 1 802 1 769 1 805 + 2.0
Developing countries 995 1 017 1 049 1 070 1 087 + 1.6
Developed countries 765 751 753 699 718 + 2.7
Per Caput Food Use
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries 170 170 170 170 170 -
Developed countries 129 130 129 128 128 -
WORLD STOCKS 5/
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat 144 136 110 102 105 + 3.0
Coarse grains 169 139 146 105 117 +11.9
Rice (milled) 67 63 55 54 49 - 8.0
All cereals 381 339 311 260 271 + 4.3
Developing countries 167 169 157 155 148 - 4.5
Developed countries 214 169 153 105 123 +17.1
Stocks as % of world
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption 22 19 18 14 14-15
EXPORT PRICES 3/
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/ 278 250 289 336 368 6/ + 26.0 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter) 150 143 143 157 214 8/ + 37.2 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow) 110 97 113 104 155 8/ + 51.2 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt 18.1 12.1 15.1 19.0 17.1 8/ - 10.0 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/ 325 339 340 342
Cereal production 1/ 858 884 878 916 928 + 1.4
Per caput production (kg.) 250 253 247 254 253 - 0.2
Cereal imports 2/ 66 60 70 74
of which: Food aid 3/ 10.2 7.8 7.6 6.3
Proportion of cereal import
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid 15 13 11 9

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June.
4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995.
5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
6/ Average of quotations for January-April 1996.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
8/ Average of quotations for July 1995-May 1996 9/ Includes all food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.
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