In northern Africa, the 1996 wheat crop is estimated at almost 15 million tons compared to 9 million tons last year. In Algeria, output is expected to be higher than last year due to favourable weather conditions. Above-average rainfall and an increase in area planted point to a large recovery in Morocco compared to last year’s drought-affected crop. In Tunisia, favourable rains, adequate availability of fertilizers and an increase in plantings, has resulted in a record wheat crop. In Egypt, where the wheat crop is almost entirely irrigated, production is expected to be above average and marginally higher than last year. The planting of rice has started but early prospects are unfavourable due to high temperatures and low rainfall. Aggregate output of coarse grains in the sub-region in 1996 is expected to be around 13 million tons, sharply up from last year's drought-affected harvest of 8 million tons. The most significant increases are expected in Morocco and Tunisia.
In western Africa, rainfall in coastal countries benefited the first maize crop and the planting of millet and sorghum is almost complete in northern parts. In the Sahel, rains began in April in Burkina Faso and spread over southern and central parts in May. The rainy season started in May in the south of Chad, Guinea Bissau, Mali and the extreme south of Niger. Southern Senegal and The Gambia received rainfall in early June over most producing areas, facilitating land preparation and planting. Seasonably dry conditions prevail in Cape Verde, Mauritania and northern parts of Senegal. Significant movement of Desert Locusts from the spring breeding areas of north-west Africa towards the summer breeding areas in the Sahel were reported during May. There were several reports of swarms arriving in Mauritania, Senegal, Mali and Niger and possibly in Burkina Faso. Further movements could be expected in these countries, while there is a low to moderate risk of further movement eastward into Chad during June.
In central Africa, widespread rains in April and May allowed planting and development of the first maize crop in the Central African Republic and Cameroon. The planting of the main maize crop is underway in northern Zaire while the second maize crop is being harvested in the centre and the south.
In eastern Africa, harvesting of the 1996 main season cereal crops is underway in the south, while crop planting continues in the north. Crop prospects are mixed. Following normal rains, Tanzania and Uganda had a good harvest. In Rwanda, production of 1996 “B” crops is expected to increase, but remain below average. In Burundi, crop output is forecast to decline sharply following dry conditions and increased insecurity. In Somalia, more rainfall is needed for 1996 “Gu” crops following below-average precipitation in May. In Kenya, the 1996 main maize crop is anticipated to be poor as a result of a decline in planting, a dry spell in April and reduced yields. In Ethiopia, early prospects for the 1996 main “meher” crop are favourable due to abundant rains in recent months. These rains also benefited the secondary “belg” crops and a good output is expected. In Eritrea, timely and above normal precipitation favoured land preparation and planting of the 1996 cereal crop. In Sudan, rainfall in May improved soil conditions for planting of 1996 coarse grains.
In southern Africa, harvesting of the 1995/96 coarse grains crop is complete or underway and prospects are good. Rainfall has been favourable in most countries, with the exception of Namibia where it remained below normal and erratic. Output in the sub-region is expected to be above average and well up on last year’s drought reduced crop. In Angola, favourable rainfall, relative peace across the country and an increase in area planted point to above-average production this year. In Mozambique, despite excessive rains and severe flooding which destroyed some crops, an above-average coarse grain crop is expected. In South Africa, although heavy rains also led to some crop damage and delayed harvesting in some areas, an above-average maize crop, double last year’s reduced level, is forecast. Good harvests are anticipated in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, where maize output is forecast to be more than 2 million tons. In Madagascar, rainfall has been adequate, though some crop damage occurred due to cyclones. Prospects are favourable and a paddy crop of 2.6 million tons is expected.
In Asia, harvesting of winter crops is almost complete and planting of paddy and coarse grains has commenced. In China, despite dry conditions in parts of the north, the overall outlook for wheat remains favourable and production in 1996 is expected to be similar to last year's volume. In India, where a normal monsoon is officially forecast, the ninth in succession, planting of kharif paddy and coarse grains is well under way. Timely rainfall and the incentive of higher support prices in Pakistan is also expected to result in a bumper wheat crop. In Thailand, Viet Nam and Myanmar favourable rainfall in May benefited development of second season rice, though it disrupted harvest operations somewhat. Good rainfall also favoured planting of main season paddy in Cambodia, Laos, and the Philippines. Cereal production in Afghanistan remains well below requirement due to a shortage of inputs and insecurity. Also in Iraq, wheat and barley production remains constrained due to a shortage of agricultural inputs and spare parts. In Saudi Arabia, wheat area is estimated to have declined markedly, due to Government measures to cut subsidized output. Above-average production is likely in both Syria and Turkey.
In Central America and the Caribbean, sowing of the 1996/97 first season cereal crops has been completed in most countries. Prospects for the maize and sorghum crops are uncertain, as a result of drought which is currently affecting some of the main producing states in Mexico, the largest producer in the sub-region. Elsewhere, an average to above-average coarse grain output is anticipated. In the Caribbean, slightly above-average maize production is expected in the Dominican Republic. In Cuba and Haiti, maize output is expected to be around average.
In South America, harvesting of the 1996 maize crop is well advanced in most southern countries. In Argentina and Brazil, production is expected to decrease from last year’s high levels, due to dry weather at planting. Output, however, should remain well above average as it should in Chile. In the Andean countries, in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, where maize harvesting is underway, output is anticipated to be above-average. In Colombia and Venezuela, the planting of maize and sorghum has begun; the area planted is expected to be below-average in the former country, while the outlook is uncertain in the latter due to credit shortages.
In Europe, prospects for 1996 wheat and coarse grains remain satisfactory. In April, after prolonged wintry conditions, warmer temperatures over most of the region favoured winter grain development and raised soil temperatures for spring/summer planting. In May, northern France and southern Germany received timely and beneficial rainfall though unfavourably dry conditions continued in some northern parts, in particular over southern parts of the United Kingdom and north Germany, limiting moisture for winter crops and emerging spring grains. In eastern parts of the region, widespread rain in May over parts of Poland and Bulgaria benefited winter grain development though it interrupted planting of summer crops. In the Baltic countries, the cereal harvest in 1996 is expected to be better than last year due to low winterkill and an increase in area planted. In Bosnia-Herzegovina, the 1996 production of cereals is expected to increase substantially. In the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, wheat output is forecast to decline sharply but early prospects for spring maize are promising. In Croatia, despite favourable weather, the production of wheat is expected to decline due to lower plantings. In Slovenia, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, winter wheat crops are anticipated to be normal.
In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the winter grain harvest is expected to be 8 million tons more than last year, due to larger plantings and low winterkill in the Russian Federation and the Ukraine. Spring grain planting was delayed and growing conditions, though satisfactory, have not been as good as those for winter grains, though satisfactory. Higher cereal prices last year and schemes for the delivery of inputs against contracts for future deliveries of crops have encouraged plantings. Nevertheless, economic difficulties on farm are expected to result in a further reduction in the area sown in the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan and keep yields below average. In spite of this, current indications are that cereal production in 1996 could be higher than last year in Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine and around last year’s level in most other states with the exception of Armenia and Kyrghyzstan where the outlook is unfavourable.
In North America, the outlook for the 1996 wheat crop in the United States has deteriorated following adverse weather conditions during much of the spring. Despite the prospects for a larger wheat crop in spring, aggregate output is tentatively forecast to fall by some 5 percent. After early delays, conditions improved for maize planting in late May/early June and latest indications point to a large recovery in 1996. In Canada, although a delay in planting may result in a smaller increase in wheat than earlier predicted, aggregate cereal production is expected to be much higher than 1995.
In Oceania, prospects are generally favourable for 1996 winter wheat and coarse grains crop in Australia, following ideal planting conditions in most areas. However, in Western Australia, a lack of rainfall has delayed fieldwork and the wheat area could be reduced. The harvest of the minor 1996 summer crop is virtually complete and a good crop is in prospect.
NOTE: This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO Secretariat with information from official and unofficial sources. Since conditions can change rapidly and information may not always represent the current crop or food supply situation as of present date, further enquiries should be made before any action is taken. None of the reports should be regarded in any way as statements of governmental views.
Enquiries may be directed to Mr. Abdur Rashid, Chief, Global Information and Early Warning Service, Commodities and Trade Division, (ESC), FAO, Rome (Telex: 610181 FAO I, GIEWS Direct Facsimile: 0039-6-5225-4495, E-mail INTERNET: [email protected]).
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this bulletin do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.