|
|
1992/93 | 1993/94 | 1994/95 | 1995/96 |
1996/97 forecast |
Change 1996/97 over 1995/96 |
|
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/ |
(. . . . . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) | (percentage ) | ||||
|
Wheat |
566 | 564 | 527 | 545 | 571 | + 4.8 |
|
Coarse grains |
878 | 810 | 891 | 813 | 875 | + 7.6 |
|
Rice, milled |
355 | 356 | 362 | 372 | 375 | + 0.8 |
|
(paddy) |
(530) | (531) | (539) | (554) | (558) | (+ 0.7) |
|
All cereals (including milled rice) |
1 799 | 1 730 | 1 779 | 1 730 | 1 821 | + 5.2 |
|
Developing countries |
914 | 934 | 928 | 964 | 988 | + 2.5 |
|
Developed countries |
885 | 797 | 851 | 766 | 833 | + 8.8 |
|
WORLD IMPORTS 2/ |
|
|
||||
|
Wheat |
103 | 94 | 94 | 91 | 85 | - 6.7 |
|
Coarse grains |
93 | 85 | 90 | 91 | 82 | - 9.0 |
|
Rice (milled) |
15 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 19 | - 2.1 |
|
All cereals |
210 | 196 | 204 | 201 | 186 | - 7.3 |
|
Developing countries |
128 | 130 | 148 | 145 | 136 | - 6.1 |
|
Developed countries |
83 | 66 | 57 | 56 | 50 | - 10.3 |
|
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/ |
15.2 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 7.7 4/ |
|
|
|
WORLD UTILIZATION |
|
|
||||
|
Wheat |
555 | 569 | 553 | 554 | 564 | + 1.9 |
|
Coarse grains |
849 | 839 | 882 | 850 | 862 | + 1.4 |
|
Rice (milled) |
355 | 359 | 368 | 375 | 379 | + 1.2 |
|
All cereals |
1 760 | 1 767 | 1 803 | 1 778 | 1 805 | + 1.5 |
|
Developing countries |
996 | 1 017 | 1 049 | 1 077 | 1 095 | + 1.7 |
|
Developed countries |
764 | 750 | 754 | 701 | 710 | + 1.3 |
|
Per Caput Food Use |
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) |
|
||||
|
Developing countries |
170 | 170 | 170 | 170 | 170 | - |
|
Developed countries |
128 | 130 | 129 | 129 | 130 | + 0.7 |
|
WORLD STOCKS 5/ |
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) |
|
||||
|
Wheat |
144 | 136 | 110 | 104 | 111 | + 6.2 |
|
Coarse grains |
169 | 140 | 147 | 109 | 118 | + 8.0 |
|
Rice (milled) |
67 | 63 | 54 | 53 | 49 | - 7.9 |
|
All cereals |
381 | 339 | 312 | 266 | 277 | + 4.1 |
|
Developing countries |
167 | 169 | 158 | 158 | 152 | - 4.1 |
|
Developed countries |
214 | 170 | 153 | 108 | 125 | + 16.3 |
|
|
( . . . . . . . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) |
|
||||
|
Stocks as % of world cereal consumption |
22 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 15 |
|
|
EXPORT PRICES 3/ |
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) |
|
||||
|
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/ |
278 | 250 | 289 | 336 | 363 6/ | + 14.5 7/ |
|
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter) |
143 | 143 | 157 | 216 | 198 8/ | + 5.2 7/ |
|
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow) |
97 | 113 | 104 | 159 | 192 8/ | + 51.2 7/ |
|
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt |
12.1 | 15.1 | 19.0 | 16.8 | 13.0 8/ | - 31.8 7/ |
|
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/ |
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) |
|
||||
|
Roots & tubers production 1/ |
325 | 339 | 340 | 342 |
|
|
|
Cereal production 1/ |
858 | 884 | 878 | 916 | 930 | + 1.6 |
|
Per caput production (kg.) |
250 | 253 | 247 | 254 | 253 | - 0.2 |
|
Cereal imports 2/ |
65 | 62 | 74 | 76 | 63 | - 17.0 |
|
of which: Food aid 3/ |
10.2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 6.0 |
|
|
|
|
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .) |
|
||||
|
Proportion of cereal import covered by food aid |
16 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
|
|
SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded
data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year
shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer
to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June.
4/ Forecast based on donors' budgetary allocations
and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995.
5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover
levels at the end of national crop years.
6/ Average of quotations for January-August 1996.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year
for which figures are not shown.
8/ Average of quotations for July-August 1996
9/ Includes all food deficit countries with per caput
income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for
IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the
guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in
the allocations of food aid.