• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. CROP PRODUCTION IN 1996
• 3. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION
• 4. FOOD AID NEEDS

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the Lao People’s Democratic Republic from 12 to 22 November to review the outcome of the main 1996 paddy crop and estimate national import and food aid requirements for the 1996/97 marketing year. The evaluation is based on discussions with Government Ministries and Departments and on field visits to three flood affected provinces: Savannakhet, Khammouane and Bolikhamxay.

Low and irregular rainfall in June/July delayed transplanting of paddy affecting crop growth, whilst a series of typhoons off the coast of Vietnam in September, brought torrential rains causing landslides in upland areas and widespread flooding in major rice producing areas in the lowlands of Central and Southern Region. Six provinces were significantly affected, accounting for nearly 94 percent of losses in rice. Amongst these, the provinces of Khammouane, Savannakhet and Champasack were the most affected and now face large shortages. These are important agricultural provinces, with Khammouane being self-sufficient and Savannakhet and Champasack surplus-producing in normal years, without floods

It is estimated that as a result of losses on some 76 000 hectares of paddy this year, the output of milled rice in 1996/97 will amount to only 836 000 tons. As the country has no carryover stocks, only this amount of grain will be available for utilization in the 1996/97 marketing year. Against this the country requires some 864 000 tons for food alone and approximately 1.02 million tons for total utilization, leaving an overall import requirement of over 179 000 tons. Assuming that 25 000 tons would come in the form of commercial imports, similar to last year, the overall deficit amounts to 154 000 tons, with which the country needs assistance. Of this amount, it is recommended that 43 000 tons be provided as emergency assistance for 420 000 people who have been affected by floods and have no food reserves on which to rely. The worst affected people, those who lost their harvest for two consecutive years, are estimated to number 177 000. They will need to be provided with emergency food aid for 12 months whilst an additional 243 000 people will need assistance for 6 months. As of 22 November, donor pledges amounted to 3 800 tons of rice, leaving a balance of 39 200 tons to be covered by additional emergency food aid.

Due to climate and infrastructural limitations, the distribution of relief food needs to be undertaken as soon as possible.

2. CROP PRODUCTION IN 1996

Rice is by far the most important crop grown, occupying some 93 percent of total area under cereal cultivation. Although the crop is mostly grown under rainfed conditions in lowland and upland areas, a small proportion of production (3 - 4 percent) normally comes from the dry season irrigated crop. Short, medium and long duration varieties are all grown, depending on location and the onset of rains. All three varieties are normally cultivated in one area to spread the risk of seasonal drought or flood damage. Low input use and frequent setbacks from drought, floods or pests, invariably affect yields and overall production.

2.1 Area cultivated and harvested

In 1996 a total of 604 499 hectares of rainfed paddy were cultivated. Of this floods and pests caused the loss of an estimated 76 403 hectares, reducing the area harvested to around 528 000 hectares, some 3.3 percent lower than in 1995 and the lowest since 1980. Observations during field visits to affected areas in Central and Southern Regions indicated that most of the rice crop had either been submerged for long periods (for up to two weeks) and hence had been completely lost, or had survived the flooding but had only produced weak tillers, unfilled spikelets and poor quality grain.

2.2 Yields

The average yields used for wet season lowland and upland paddy, which were similar to MOA's estimates from crop cutting surveys in 1995, were 1.85 tons/ha and 1.57 tons/ha respectively. Based on field observations and interviews with farmers, the mission noted, however, that overall yields ranged from zero in areas completely damaged by floods, to 0.9 - 1.2 tons/ha in partially damaged areas and 1.8 - 2.25 tons/ha, in areas not affected by floods.

2.3 Production and Losses

Based on estimates of average yield, area harvested and lost and projected production of irrigated (dry season) rice next year, total paddy production in 1996/97 is forecast at 1.35 million tons. (Table 1)

Table 1: Estimated 1996/97 Paddy Production by Region

	Lowland	Upland	Irrigated	Total
Regions	Production (tons)	Production (tons)	Forecast for 1997 1/ (tons)	Production (tons)
Northern Region	197 538	189 385	6 296	393 219
Phongsaly	14 140	22 075	65	36 280
Louang Namtha	22 639	18 092	210	40 941
Oudomxay	27 063	40 194	260	67 517
Bokeo	22 284	11 928	1	34 213
Luang Prabang	25 481	53 002	2 970	81 453
Houaphanh	27 836	24 607	940	53 383
Xayabouli	58 095	19 487	1 850	79 432
Central Region	546 794	42 227	43 108	632 129
Xiengkhouang	38 717	14 040		52 757
Vientiane province	97 337	4 426	4 150	105 913
Vientiane prefecture	124 350	1 259	27 250	152 859
Bolikhamxay	38 792	11 137	45	49 974
Khammouane	47 832	2 257	4 060	54 149
Savannakhet	190 825	6 000	7 600	204 425
Khetpiset -Saysomboun	8 941	3 108	3	12 052
Southern Region	296 285	25 204	1 791	323 280
Salavane	106 661	12 528	340	119 529
Sekong	3 577	5 335	135	9 047
Champasack	164 549	3 789	1 300	169 638
Attapeu	21 498	3 552	16	25 066
TOTAL	1 040 617	256 816	51 195	1 348 628

1/ Based on 5 years (1991-1995) average yield and anticipated area.

2.4 Other Foodcrops

Maize, starchy roots, soybeans/mung beans and vegetables are other foodcrops which are commonly grown in small areas, mostly in rice-based cropping systems. Annual maize production averages 56 000 tons (1991-1995), though production in 1996 was expected to be about 73 000 tons. About 60 percent of the maize crop is produced in the Northern Region and the remaining 40 percent in Central and Southern Regions. The production of starchy root crops (mainly cassava and sweet potato) is evenly distributed throughout the country. Production of these is expected to be around 125 000 tons in 1996. In addition an output of 9 500 tons of beans and 117 000 tons of vegetables is expected.

3. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

3.1 Food Supply and Demand Balance for 1996/97

In deriving the cereal balance sheet for 1996/97, the mission used the following assumptions and estimates;

• - Cereal consumption relates only to rice, the predominant crop, maize being utilized for feed and other uses.
• - A consumption requirement of 180 kg of rice per person/year or roughly 493 grams per person/day, to provide 1 804 Kcal per day or approximately 82 percent of calorific intake.
• - A population of 4.8 million people based on figures and growth rates for each province from the 1995 census. Where growth rates were not available for a given province the national average of 2.4 percent was applied.
• - A milling rate of 62 percent for paddy to rice.
• - Seed and post harvest losses of 16 percent of production, in keeping with past FAO/WFP missions.
• - Rice for other uses than consumption is estimated at 2 percent of production.
• - No opening stocks are assumed in 1997, as the Government does not maintain buffer reserves for emergencies or for market intervention. In addition no carry-over stocks are likely to be available at the household level, as a result of two consecutive bad years, which have resulted in the depletion of stocks. Private traders do not hold large stock inventories as supplies are normally easily obtainable from neighbouring countries, at short notice.
• - In the past commercial rice imports have averaged around 15 000 tons per year. During the first nine months of the 1995/96 marketing year, however, 20 800 tons were imported. The increase may partly be as a result of shortfall in domestic production in 1995. In keeping with this, and assuming that similar measures will be taken this year to combat domestic supply shortages, it is estimated that 25 000 tons will be imported in 1996/97. Although there is unofficial border trade with neighbouring countries, no estimates of quantities traded exist. As this trade is in both directions, rice flowing from and to Laos, it is assumed that this unofficial trade is balanced. The cereal balance sheet is shown in table 2.

Table 2: Cereal Balance Sheet 1996/97 (000')^1/

Total availability	836
1996/97 production	836
Opening stocks	-
Total utilization	1 015
Food use	864
Seed, losses and other uses	151
1997 Import requirement	179
Commercial imports	25
Food aid requirements	154
of which: Emergency food aid	43
Programme and project food aid	111

1/ Figures are rounded to the nearest thousand.

3.2 Rice Consumption Requirement and Availabilty by Region

Marked regional variations exist in food requirement for rice and availability in respective reqions. In the 1996/97 marketing year, the overall defict in rice for food in the country will amount to over 161 000 tons. Over half the deficit will be in the Central Region, with the Northen Region accounting for a further 47 percent. (Table 3).

Table 3: Rice Consumption Requirement and Availability 1996/97

	Population1/ (1.3.97)	Rice consumption requirement 2/	Rice availability3/	Surplus(+)/Deficit (-)4/
Northern Region	1 557	280 260	204 789	-75 471
Phongsaly	159	28 620	18 895	-9 725
Louang Namtha	118	21 240	21 322	82
Oudomxay	221	39 780	35 163	-4 617
Bokeo	116	20 880	17 819	-3 061
Luang Prabang	383	68 940	42 421	-26 519
Houaphanh	254	45 720	27 801	-17 919
Xayabouli	306	55 080	41 368	-13 712
Central Region	2 290	412 200	329 161	-83 039
Xiengkhouang	209	37 620	27 476	-10 144
Vientiane province	300	54 000	55 160	1 160
Vientiane prefecture	565	101 700	79 609	-22 091
Bolikhamxay	172	30 960	26 026	-4 934
Khammouane	287	51 660	28 149	-23 511
Savannakhet	700	126 000	106 464	-19 536
Khetpiset -Saysomboun	57	10 260	6 277	-3 983
Southern Region	953	171 540	168 363	-3 177
Salavane	272	48 960	62 250	13 290
Sekong	67	12 060	4 712	-7 348
Champasack	523	94 140	88 347	-5 793
Attapeu	91	16 380	13 054	-3 326
TOTAL	4 800	864 000	702 313	-161 687

1/ Mission calculation based on 1995 population census and reported growth rate.
2/ Based on government report of 180 kg/person/year.
3/ Net availability after seed and post harvest losses of 16 percent and milling rate of 62 percent.
4/ Does not include uses other than food use.

4. FOOD AID NEEDS

Production of rice, the main staple, will be insufficient to feed the country in the coming year. In terms of food availability, 1997 will be much worse than any recent year, as floods occurred principally in the ‘rice-basket’ of the country resulting in a greater loss of area under cultivation than either last year or 1991, the previous benchmark for heavy damage.

Estimates of overall crop loss aggregated at the provincial and district levels, may be misleading in calculating food aid needs, as per caput figures derived from aggregated data may disguise serious pockets of shortages. The best proxy of emergency food needs, therefore, is based on land holdings and average family size for lowland cultivators in southern Laos. A conservative [ 'Conservative' as the actual average derived from the census is 6.2 members per family.] estimate of food aid can be derived based on the assumption that the average family of six people farms one hectare of land and lives entirely from this production. This assumption is widely accepted and has been used in previous appeals.

Many of the farmers in affected districts can only produce sufficient grains for consumption needs in good years, whilst in bad years, setbacks such as floods can seriously erode household food security. In 1995 floods seriously affected the provinces of Khammouane and Bolikhamxay and parts of Savannakhet and Champassak. Khammouane province has been affected by flooding for three years continuously and in four out of the past six.

In estimating the number of people requiring food assistance, the following derivations were used:

(1) An estimate of the area on which losses occurred two years in succession multiplied by the average household size of six. These households are assumed to have no reserves and will, therefore, require food assistance for 12 months. In this category the area affected is calculated as being 29 486 hectares and the number of people 177 000.

(2) In addition to (1), the rice crop on a further 40 500 hectares was also lost. However, as this area was not flooded last year, households are assumed to have at least some reserve, though these are very likely to be exhausted by early next year. The number of people falling into this category, therefore, is estimated at 243 000 (40 500 x 6). The mission estimates that this number of people will need , at the very least, six months supply of food assistance.

The estimate under (2) is conservative as:

• only provinces of crop losses of more than 20 percent were considered.
• at the time of the mission, not all affected districts had reported flood damage and loss to the centre.
• is based on the questionable assumption that affected people have at least some reserves and that these people can bolster reserves through various coping mechanisms. In this regard, however, as result of flood damage to the environment, as well as increased pressure from flood victims, many of the traditional coping mechanisms have become more scarce or even unavailable. Moreover, because of reduced crop yields in flooded, but not "damaged" fields, many more people not even enumerated as having "damaged" fields will not realize a normal harvest that would constitute a full year's supply.

The minimum food requirements are therefore:

• 144 kgs/year for 177 000 people who lost the entire harvest for two years in succession = 25 500 tons.
• 72 kgs for 243 000 people who lost the entire harvest in 1996 but not in 1995 = 17 500 tons.

The total food requirement to meet these needs amounts to 43 000 tons.

The Mission uses the word "minimum" advisedly because, as noted above, it is extremely unlikely that many in the second category (flooded only in 1996) have reserves from last year, much less to cover six months Until May 1997, when rice cultivation for the next monsoon crop begins, those who lost more than half their crop this year will have to rely on 'forest products'. The figure is also conservative in that it takes into account only those hectares that produced absolutely no grain and ignores areas inundated for periods less than a week which have stunted plants that will produce only a fraction of the normal yield.

The Government, with no significant tax base and no rice stocks of its own (all rice is now in private hands and modest farm taxes are no longer paid in kind), cannot purchase rice for these affected areas and cannot afford the considerable transport costs involved in moving rice in a country with almost no roads.

As much as possible, food aid coming through WFP channels will be utilized in food-for-work activities aimed at disaster prevention and mitigation in the affected communities: dike and drainage facility construction and the facilitation of dry season cultivation through irrigation (reducing dependency on unreliable monsoon rains).

Because of the unique combination of climatological and infrastructural conditions that exist in Laos ( an unreliable and unpredictable monsoon, the incursion of typhoon from the gulf of Tonkin, no road network and no paved roads at all in the southern provinces) any Emergency Operation that may be mounted to alleviate these needs must be undertaken swiftly. In the most urgent cases, the remote areas of districts not touched by Route 13, ( the only main artery in the entire country --- that is not paved at all in the affected provinces) if food is to be delivered to affected communities before monsoon rains cut them off from supply sources. Rice must start moving before the monsoon sets in full force in May.

4.1 Food aid handling capacity of the government

The Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare continues to be responsible for humanitarian aid, including food aid and emergency programmes. Close collaboration exists with the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry in the assessment of losses to national food production. Committees in charge of planning, operating and monitoring food aid operations are still in place at the various administrative levels, from the village to the centre. It can be anticipated that future food aid operations will be handled along the lines established for such previous operations.

As already recommended by the 1995 Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, the involvement of NGOs in emergency food distribution may be sought at the province and district level.

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