FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook 97/01 page2

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook 97/01

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1992/93	1993/94	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97 forecast	Change 1996/97 over 1995/96
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(. .percentage . )
Wheat	565	564	527	547	588	+ 7.5
Coarse grains	878	812	894	811	905	+ 11.6
Rice, milled	355	355	362	372	379	+ 2.0
(paddy)	(530)	(529)	(539)	(554)	(566)	(+ 2.2)
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 799	1 731	1 783	1 730	1 872	+ 8.2
Developing countries	917	934	932	961	1 005	+ 4.6
Developed countries	882	797	851	769	867	+ 12.8
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	103	95	91	94	84	- 11.0
Coarse grains	94	85	89	92	83	- 9.8
Rice (milled)	15	17	21	19	19	- 2.6
All cereals	212	196	201	206	186	- 9.8
Developing countries	129	130	145	151	134	- 11.3
Developed countries	83	66	56	55	52	- 5.8
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	15.1	13.0	9.3	7.2	7.5 4/	+ 4.7
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	556	564	553	563	573	+ 1.8
Coarse grains	851	843	883	855	880	+ 3.0
Rice (milled)	355	358	367	374	381	+ 1.9
All cereals	1 761	1 765	1 803	1 792	1 834	+ 2.4
Developing countries	1 000	1 019	1 051	1 079	1 101	+ 2.0
Developed countries	762	746	753	712	733	+ 3.0
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	171	171	171	171	172	+ 0.5
Developed countries	130	130	129	128	129	+ 0.5
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	148	145	117	106	117	+ 11.3
Coarse grains	168	137	147	103	124	+ 21.1
Rice (milled)	67	63	55	54	52	- 3.9
All cereals	383	346	319	262	294	+ 12.1
Developing countries	167	169	158	155	156	+ 0.3
Developed countries	216	176	161	107	138	+ 29.4
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	21.7	19.2	17.8	14.3	15.8
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	278	250	289	336	352	+ 4.8
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	143	143	157	216	186 6/	- 6.9 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	97	113	104	159	145 6/	+ 3.8 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	12.1	15.1	19.0	16.8	13.1 6/	- 31.4 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	323	343	339	337	344	+ 2.2
Cereal production 1/	863	884	882	916	950	+ 3.7
Per caput production (kg.)	252	253	248	254	259	+ 2.1
Cereal imports 2/	67	62	71	77	61	- 20.7
of which: Food aid 3/	10.2	8.0	7.9	5.7	5.9	+ 3.5
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	15	13	11	7	10

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June.
4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995.
5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
6/ Average of quotations for July 1996-January 1997.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
8/ Includes all food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.