In northern Africa, the prospects of winter grains in Algeria, to be harvested from May, remain uncertain, due to prolonged dry conditions which resulted in spotty emergence and stunted growth. In Morocco and Tunisia dry weather conditions continue to adversely affect 1997 winter grains. Also in Egypt, growing conditions are satisfactory for the mostly irrigated crop to be harvested from mid-May.
In western Africa, rains have begun in southern parts of countries along the Gulf of Guinea while seasonably dry conditions prevail elsewhere. In 1996 output was average to above average in most producing countries of the Sahel. However, output remained below average in Cape Verde, Chad and Mauritania and in some traditionally deficit regions of Mali and Niger. Cereal prices in these areas remain high. Subsidised sales or distribution of food will be necessary during the lean season. The national food security stocks, in Chad and Niger also need replenishment. In coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, first rains were received in early March in southern parts and land preparation for maize planting is underway. Seasonably dry conditions prevail in the north. In Liberia and Sierra Leone, the security situation is improving and rehabilitation programmes are distributing agricultural inputs to war affected farmers.
In central Africa, 1996 crop production was satisfactory in Cameroon and the Central African Republic. In Zaire, rice and maize have been harvested in the north and coarse grains are developing satisfactorily in the south. In the east, the civil strife and the exodus of Rwandan refugees from camps is hampering agricultural activities and relief operations. Their nutritional and health situation is becoming critical. Famine could develop as hundreds of thousands of Rwandan refugees and sections of the local population are inaccessible to relief agencies.
In eastern Africa, harvesting of the 1996/97 secondary "short rains" cereal crops is complete. Due to the failure of rains, output was poor in Somalia, eastern parts of Kenya, and Uganda, northern Tanzania, and on the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba. Poor rains also adversely affected pasture conditions and livestock throughout pastorlist areas in the sub-region. In Rwanda, and Burundi early prospects for the recently planted second season crops are favourable. However, in southern unimodal rainfall areas of Tanzania, the outlook for 1997 crops is uncertain reflecting insufficient precipitation.
In southern Africa, the outlook for the 1997 coarse grain crop to be harvested from April is generally favourable. Despite late rains and dry conditions in parts, rainfall so far has been generally abundant, or excessive in several countries. In Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, another good harvest is in prospect, if favourable conditions prevail until April. Continuous moderate to heavy rains in January/February, particularly in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, resulted in extensive flooding along river valleys, leading to population displacement and loss of property and crops. The floods may also result in reduced yields in several provinces due to waterlogging. Adverse weather conditions may also have affected prospects for the bumper maize harvest in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, forecast earlier. However, the abundant rains have improved pastures considerably and replenished water reservoirs, improving prospects for winter wheat to be planted later in the year, particularly in Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In Madagascar, prospects for the 1997 crops remain uncertain due to cyclones in January/February which caused severe flooding and damage to crops. FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions are planned in April/May to Angola and Mozambique, where a large number of displaced people are expected to continue to require international food assistance in 1997/98.
In Asia, prospects for 1997 winter grains remain generally favourable. In China, overall conditions are reported to be satisfactory for winter wheat notwithstanding reports of drought from the eastern province of Shandong. In India, in spite of low intermittent rainfall in recent months, irrigation supplies are adequate and an above average wheat crop, above last year's 62.2 million tons, is in prospect. In Pakistan, conditions for winter wheat to be harvested from April/May are generally satisfactory, despite dry weather earlier in the season. An output of 17 million tons, similar to last year is anticipated. In Sri Lanka, low and erratic rainfall during the northeast monsoon (Oct-Mar), affected Maha rice production in parts, though output is forecast to be above last year�s drought reduced crop. The boro rice crop in Bangladesh is progressing under generally favourable conditions and the target of 7.5 million tons is likely to be met. In Indonesia, light to moderate showers in the last dekad of February across Java, helped maintain moisture and irrigation reserves and overall prospects are favourable for the main rice crop. In Thailand, favourable conditions are reported for the late harvest of main season rice and for early development of second season rice. Cereal production in Iraq and Afghanistan continues to be constrained by shortages of essential agricultural inputs.
In Central America and the Caribbean, field work continues for planting of the 1997 main season cereal crops. In Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua average to above-average coarse grain plantings, mostly maize, are anticipated, while in Guatemala slightly below-average maize plantings are forecast. In Mexico, the main producer of the region, the area planted to maize is provisionally forecast smaller than last year, but still well above average. In the Dominican Republic, above-average paddy plantings, considerably larger than last year, are expected, while in Cuba below-normal plantings are anticipated due to the shortage of agricultural inputs. In Haiti, a severe dry spell is affecting the North-West with resulting damage to crops.
In South America, harvesting of the 1996/97 maize crop is underway in the southern areas of the sub-region and average to above-average outputs are expected in all countries. In Argentina and Brazil, bumper maize crops of 14.6 million tons and 34.2 million tons respectively are anticipated. In Chile, a slightly above-average output of maize should be gathered, despite the long dry spell which has been affecting the northern and central parts of the country. In Uruguay, maize output should be about average, while a record paddy crop is anticipated. In Paraguay, a record maize crop is forecast. In the Andean countries, in Bolivia, harvesting of the first season coarse grain crops has started in some parts. The outlook is uncertain due to the heavy rains and flooding which affected the crops by end February. In Peru, normal to abundant rains are reported in most of the large producing areas where sowing of the main season cereal and potato crops had been delayed as a consequence of insufficient rain. In Ecuador, sowing of the coarse grain and paddy crops is underway and near record plantings of maize and paddy are expected. In Colombia, sowing of the main season cereal crops has started and below-average plantings of maize are expected for the third consecutive year. In Venezuela, normal rains have benefited land preparation for planting of the 1997 coarse grain and paddy crops.
In Europe, prospects for the 1997 cereal crops remain satisfactory. Throughout most of the region winter damage to crops in the ground is reported to be less than in the previous year, whilst good weather is favouring planting of spring crops. Latest reports indicate winter grain planting increased in the EC, and remained close to last year's level or increased slightly in most other countries of the region. While in the EC yields are expected to drop somewhat from last year's bumper levels, improvements are anticipated in some eastern countries, although much will depend on farmers' access to finances for vital inputs. In the Baltics, the outlook for the 1997 cereal harvest is satisfactory.
In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the outlook for winter grains is mixed. The aggregate planted area is estimated to have fallen by a million hectares to about 26 million hectares. Larger areas in the Ukraine and in most smaller states, have been more than offset by reduced plantings in the Russian Federation, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In Russia, shortages of capital, fuel and machinery delayed planting. Good snow cover this winter reduced winterkill and overall wintergrains are reported to be in good condition. In the Ukraine, the outlook is better than last year but in the Russian Federation the harvested area is likely to fall to around 12 million hectares. The final outlook for the 1997 harvest depends crucially on conditions during the spring, the area planted and input availability.
In North America, the outlook for the 1997 wheat crop in the United States is favourable. Although winter wheat planting fell sharply, winterkill was less than normal and the crop is in very good condition. Planting of the 1997 coarse grains crop is underway in parts of the south, but maize planting mainly takes place from late April. The maize area is projected to increase some 2.5 percent. In Canada, the bulk of the wheat and coarse grain crops for harvest in 1997 will start in May. Early indications point to smaller wheat and coarse grains plantings due to rotation of land to other crops.
In Oceania, output of the minor 1997 summer coarse grain crop about to be harvested in Australia is forecast to drop sharply due to reduced plantings. Latest forecasts indicate a decrease in the aggregate winter grain area due mostly to poorer price prospects in the 1997/98 marketing year relative to other crops.