FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 05/97

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MADAGASCAR

Area:

582 000 sq.km

Climate:

Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rains in October-March; tropical cyclones

Population:

15.72 million (1997 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 230 (1995)

Specific characteristics of the country:

Low-income food-deficit country

Logistics:

Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres

Major foodcrops:

Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit

Marketing year:

April/March; Lean season: February/March

Share of cereals in total calorie intake:

60 percent



CURRENT SITUATION

In late January, cyclone Gretelle hit the southern coast of the country, bringing torrential rains and severe flooding. Some 100 people were killed in addition to damage to property, infrastructure and crops. This was followed in early February by cyclone Josie which hit the north-west bringing large amounts of rain to the vanilla-growing region, causing considerable damage to crops and infrastructure. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment and Agricultural Rehabilitation mission visited in March 1997 the areas affected by cyclone Gretelle to evaluate the impact of the cyclone on the crop and food situation and estimate food and agricultural needs. The Mission estimated the total crop loss at 7 000 tons of rice, 123 000 tons of cassava and 8 000 tons of cash crops (mainly coffee). The aggregate cereal production in 1997 is anticipated to reach 2.7 million tons, about the same as last year,provided the recent outbreak of locust is effectively controlled.

With above-average paddy production during the past three years, the national food supply situation is expected to be satisfactory. The cereal import requirement should be largely met by commercial channels and structural food aid.


CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1997/98 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production (rice in paddy terms)

7

2 476

152

2 635

Normal Imports

48

53

10

111

of which: Structural food aid

13

11

10

34

1997/98 Domestic Availability

5

1 746

180

1 931

1997 Production (rice in paddy terms)

5

2 550

180

2 735

1997 Production (rice in milled terms)

5

1 700

180

1 885

Possible stock drawdown

-

46

-

46

1997/98 Utilization

73

1 821

180

2 074

Food Use

71

1 681

140

1 892

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

-

-

Non-food use

2

140

25

167

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

15

15

1997/98 Import Requirement

68

75

-

143

Anticipated commercial imports

57

65

-

122

Food aid needs

11

610

-

21

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

16

2

6

24

of which: Delivered

-

-

-

-

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

4

107

9

120

Indexes





1997 production as % of normal:




104

1997/98 import requirement as % of normal:




129

1997/98 food aid requirement as % of normal:




62


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