Despite recent weather setbacks in eastern Africa and the continuing civil strife in the Great Lakes Region, the overall outlook for food supplies in sub-Saharan Africa has improved somewhat, following good harvests in several parts in 1996 and favourable prospects for the 1996/97 cereal crops to be harvested from May in southern Africa.
However, food supply difficulties persist in many countries of the sub-region, either due to civil strife, droughts, floods or a combination of these factors, affecting millions of people. In eastern Africa, weather adversities in recent months have caused serious food supply problems in large parts of Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, Ethiopia and Uganda, leaving over 3 million people in need of emergency food assistance. In the Great Lakes Region, emergency food assistance continues to be needed due to the civil strife, with famine conditions affecting Rwandan refugees in eastern Zaire, particularly those in inaccessible areas. In western Africa, food supply problems still persist in Liberia and Sierra Leone despite some recovery in production, while in the Sahel, several countries face localized food supply difficulties due to a failure of the rains in certain parts.
Even though the aggregate food aid needs of sub-Saharan Africa in 1997 will be substantially lower than in 1996, they remain high, estimated by FAO at about 1.9 million tons. As of mid-April, food aid pledges amounted to 1.5 million tons, of which 0.8 million tons have been delivered so far. As global food aid availability in recent years has been on a downward trend and is not anticipated to improve in the coming years, and in view of the sub-region�s generalized low commercial import capacity due to balance of payments problems, the low-income food-deficit countries of sub-Saharan Africa need to take urgent action to step up their food production to safeguard food security of their populations. FAO�s Special Programme for Food Security (see Box, page 6) is designed to assist these countries and others elsewhere in the world in this effort, with its major focus on improved water control, intensification and diversification of production, and identification and removal of socio-economic constraints to increased food production.
In Eastern Zaire, the food situation facing Rwandan refugees is grave. Hundreds are dying of starvation and disease, while tens of thousands are severely malnourished. The continuing civil strife, poor infrastructure, insecurity and obstruction by the local population make it very difficult for relief agencies to provide food and medical assistance to the refugees who are scattered in many places, some of them inaccessible.
The estimated 80 000 refugees who had settled in camps near Kisangani were recently forced to flee and are now scattered in forests and their exact whereabouts are unknown. Preparations which had been underway by relief agencies for large-scale repatriation of the refugees back to Rwanda ran into serious difficulties when local authorities objected to the plan and local residents looted food relief supplies. On 27 April 1997 the rebel leadership gave relief agencies 60 days to repatriate all the refugees back to Rwanda. This poses a serious challenge to the relief agencies as the refugees are scattered in many places and given the extremely poor state of local infrastructure. In addition, an estimated 20 000 internally displaced Zairians are also expected to be repatriated to Goma and Bukavu. This complex operation will require logistical support and an enormous amount of fuel, which is currently in short supply in Kisangani and Goma. Substantial donor assistance is urgently needed to speed up the operation so as to alleviate human suffering and avert mass starvation.
In Burundi, the political and security situation remains extremely volatile, with persistent fighting and violence reported in several parts of the country. It is estimated that by March some 500 000 people were displaced or dispersed while some 300 000 were in regroupment camps set up by the Government to re-locate the population from unsafe areas. Agricultural production is being adversely affected by insecurity in the areas affected by the conflict. The food supply situation remains tight following a poor 1997 first season harvest due to the intensified civil strife in late 1996, adverse weather in parts, and shortages of seeds, fertilizers and pesticides as a result of the economic sanctions imposed by neighbouring countries. Also, until very recently, the food supply situation was affected by the squeeze on imports of cereals and other foods due to the economic embargo. As a result of these factors, there has been a sharp increase in food prices (mainly of beans, bananas and imported food). This has aggravated the food situation of large sections of the population which remain in need of food assistance. Malnutrition among children in the regroupment camps and among the displaced population is reported to be increasing.
The food supply situation remains tight in Rwanda, where an estimated 2.6 million people, or one-third of the population, are in need of food assistance. Despite an overall improvement, the 1997 first season food production remained below the pre-civil strife average. The bean crop, the major staple crop of the season, was sharply reduced by excessive rains, while poor crops were gathered in the southern prefectures affected by drought. This together with the massive return of refugees in late 1996 who did not carry out agricultural activities during the last season, have resulted in increased food aid needs. The worsening security situation in recent months, particularly in the four prefectures bordering Zaire, has aggravated the food difficulties as food aid distribution is being hampered in these areas. Insecurity is also likely to have disrupted agricultural activities in parts of those prefectures.
Several countries of eastern Africa face serious food supply problems due to a severe drought in recent months and floods in some parts.
In Kenya, the food supply situation is critical in the North-Eastern and Eastern provinces and parts of Central and Coast provinces affected by drought during the 1996/97 "short rains" season. In pastoralist areas of these provinces, the short rains are crucial for the replenishment of water supplies and pastures after the long dry season, while in agricultural areas, the short rains season crop provides most of the annual food supplies. The Government has declared the drought a national disaster and appealed to the international community for emergency assistance until the next harvest in July. It is estimated that 1.4 million people are in need of food assistance. Worst affected areas are the pastoral districts of Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera and Marsabit, where 500 000 persons, or some 90 percent of the population, are food-insecure following a sharp increase in livestock mortality rates. The marginal agricultural districts of Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Mwingi, Mbeere and Tharaka-Nithi in Eastern Province, and Kajiado and Taita Taveta districts in the Rift Valley and Coast Provinces respectively experienced crop failures. Prices of maize have increased sharply in these areas, while those of livestock have declined, reducing the purchasing power of pastoralists. Increased malnutrition and health problems are reported. As water sources have diminished, there is also need for assistance in the provision of water for human and livestock use, as well as assistance with essential veterinary drugs for livestock and seeds for planting during the 1997 "long rains" season which has started in parts.
Following three consecutive poor seasons in many districts, adequate rainfall during this season will be crucial for improved food security in northern and eastern provinces. Early prospects are favourable following good rains in April, but substantial precipitation is still needed during the growing season.
In Tanzania, the short rains (vuli) largely failed in the bi-modal rainfall northern, north-eastern and coastal areas of the mainland and in the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba, resulting in serious food difficulties for both crop farmers and livestock herders. In the mainland it is estimated that some 700 000 people are in need of food assistance. A similar number is likely to be affected in the islands. The Government has requested emergency food assistance for the drought-affected population. In addition, serious flooding occurred recently in Lindi in the south-east, displacing a large number of households and causing extensive loss of property.
In the uni-modal rainfall central, southern and south-western areas, the behaviour of the 1996/97 long rains (November to April) has not been normal and gives cause for concern. The rains generally started late, were erratic in the first two months, with a long dry spell in December, and were patchy and below average in most growing areas in February and early March, causing losses in potential yields. Heavy rains in late March and early April which resulted in floods in some southern areas were too late to prevent further reductions in yields. In view of the already precarious food supply situation due to the drought-reduced short rains harvest, adequate contingency plans by national authorities and the international donor community are advised to avoid possible major food supply difficulties.
In Uganda, food supply difficulties are being faced in eastern and north-eastern districts where the 1997 short rains crop was sharply reduced by poor rains, as well as in northern districts where insecurity and civil strife have resulted in massive displacement of the local population and disruption of agricultural activities. In the east and north-east, food production was adversely affected by late and below-normal rains during the season, coupled with floods in parts and Cassava Mosaic Virus infestation in others. Worst affected areas were Pallisa, Kumi, Tororo, Mbale and Soroti districts, where drought conditions were more prolonged, as well as the chronically food-deficit districts of Kotido and Moroto in the Karamoja area. The most affected population in need of emergency food assistance until the next main harvest from June is estimated at 341 000 people. Food aid requirements are estimated at 12 276 tons of cereals and 3 825 of non-cereal food. In the civil strife-torn northern districts and the western district of Kasese the total number of displaced persons in need of emergency food aid is estimated at 150 000. Food aid requirements for this population are estimated at 18 000 tons of cereals and 3 825 tons of non-cereal food commodities for a period of ten months. In addition, food assistance is needed for some 269 000 refugees, mainly from Sudan, currently in the country.
In Ethiopia, in pastoral areas of the east and south bordering Somalia and Kenya, which have a short rains season from October to December, erratic and well below-average precipitation during the season resulted in a rapid deterioration of pasture conditions, shortage of water supplies and poor livestock conditions. The worst affected areas are Degehabur and Liban Zones of Somali region and Dire and Yabello waredas in the Borena Zone. The food supply situation is very difficult. The price of grains and water has increased sharply in these areas while prices of livestock have fallen significantly following distress selling. The Government has appealed for emergency food and non-food assistance. Food aid requirements for some 1 million affected population are estimated at 81 000 tons of cereals.
In Somalia, secondary "Der" crop was sharply reduced by irregular rains and pest infestations, as well as insecurity in several areas. This is the second consecutive reduced crop in most regions and the food supply situation is tight. Grain stocks are at minimum level and prices, which normally declined after the harvest, have increased significantly since January. In contrast, prices of livestock have decreased sharply due to large sales by pastoralists in order to meet the cost of living and the survival of herds. Massive population movements in search of employment and income generating activities are reported, while severe malnutrition is increasing. There is an urgent need for international food aid but the prevailing insecurity in the country hampers relief operations.
In Sudan, the food supply situation has deteriorated in several areas of western Kordofan and Darfur states, where, despite an overall national bumper cereal crop in 1996, production was sharply reduced by unfavourable weather. As this was the second consecutive year of a poor harvest in these areas, stocks and coping mechanisms of affected farmers have been exhausted and food assistance is therefore required. The food supply situation is also tight in the southern parts affected by a prolonged civil war. Distribution of food aid to an estimated 2.6 million war-affected people continues to be hampered by insecurity.
In Eritrea, food supply difficulties are anticipated in the coming months until the next main harvest from November, following a sharply reduced 1996 cereal production. Large sections of the population, who even in normal years do not cover their subsistence requirements, are in need of food assistance.
Average to above-average harvests were gathered in the main producing countries of western Africa in late 1996. In the Sahel, despite dry periods in most countries in June or July, crop growing conditions were generally adequate in the second part of the rainy season and pest attacks remained fairly limited. In the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, crop growing conditions were also generally favourable during 1996. The first maize harvest, which took place in July, was good in the majority of the coastal countries. The second maize crop, planted end-August/beginning September, enjoyed adequate growing conditions, especially well-distributed rainfall in September. Following several years of relatively good harvests in the sub-region, the food supply situation is expected to remain mostly satisfactory in 1997 in most countries. However, food supply difficulties persist in some areas due to insecurity or localized droughts.
In Liberia, despite the implementation of the peace process, occasional fighting still hampers agricultural activities, but the situation is improving. The programme of disarmament and demobilization of fighters has been fairly successful. The peace keeping force is now deployed throughout the country and national elections are planned for May 1997. FAO estimates the 1996 rice production at about 95 000 tons following improved security in the main rice growing areas and distribution of seeds and tools. This is considerably larger than the 1995 output but still only about 30 percent of pre-civil strife level.
The food supply situation is expected to remain difficult in 1997. Food aid distribution continues as the country is still relying mostly on food assistance to meet its needs. The most vulnerable areas are in the western and south-eastern parts of the country. Internally displaced persons and refugees in neighbouring countries are spontaneously returning to their homes and resuming agricultural activities. A recent needs assessment shows that approximately 100 000 vulnerable households are in need of agricultural inputs and that the 1997 agricultural production may be hampered by a lack of hand tools, low seed stocks and the short time farmers have to prepare land, particularly in the south-east where the rainy season has already started.
Recovery programmes are underway to distribute seeds, tools and agricultural inputs to vulnerable farmers. In view of an expected increase of the population to 2 million people due to partial return of refugees remaining in the neighbouring countries, the 1997 cereal food aid requirement is estimated at 115 000 tons.
In Sierra Leone, agriculture is slowly recovering from the civil war which affected the country over the past seven years. However, the country is still relying mostly on food aid. Following the implementation of the peace process, programmes of food assistance for population resettlement have started and more than 500 000 displaced people have returned to their homes, especially in southern areas. Repatriation of about 200 000 refugees remaining in neighbouring Guinea and 118 000 in Liberia is scheduled to start in June. However, the situation remains unstable in Kailahun, East Moyamba and parts of Tonkolili districts, where occasional fighting still occurs.
Paddy production in 1996 is estimated at 392 000 tons, higher than the 1995 level but about 70 percent of the pre-civil strife level. Production of root crops also increased to an estimated 328 000 tons. The cereal import requirement for 1997 is estimated at 260 000 tons, of which 81 000 tons are expected to be in the form of food aid.
In Chad, a below-average cereal harvest, estimated at about 840 000 tons, was gathered in 1996. Production decreased especially in the Sahelian zone. Prospects for off-season crops (mainly berbere - recessional sorghum) are also poor due to lower planted areas and low yields. As the water level has increased in Lake Chad in recent years, some planted areas of maize and wheat in polders have been lost by farmers.
Following this reduced crop, the food supply situation is expected to be tight in 1997, especially in the Sahelian zone where cereal prices are now much higher than in previous years. In addition, the national food reserve with a recommended level of 22 000 tons is completely exhausted. The National Early Warning System (SAPR) estimates the need for the vulnerable populations in the Sahelian zone at about 19 500 tons of cereals to be distributed over a 6-month period from March. The most affected populations are in Biltine prefecture which experienced drought for a second year and pest attacks. The Government has despatched sorghum supplies to the area to be sold at subsidized prices. Food supply difficulties are also anticipated in Batha prefecture following drought-reduced crops and damage by grasshoppers and grain-eating birds. In early December, the Government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 50 000 tons of cereals. However, current pledges fall short of the appeal, amounting to only 22 000 tons. Additional contributions are therefore required.
In Mauritania, following several successive assessments, the aggregate 1996 cereal production is now estimated at 130 450 tons including 74 150 tons of rice and 56 300 tons of coarse grains. The results of the national production survey are being finalized.
The overall food supply situation is anticipated to be tight for populations affected by a poor crop in rainfed production areas, notably in Brakna, Gorgol and Tagant regions. Cereal prices are much higher than in previous years at the same period. High malnutrition rates have been reported in many affected areas. An Emergency Operation jointly approved by the Director-General of FAO and the Executive Director of WFP will cover the needs of some 200 000 affected persons. The government has also started food distributions in Nouakchott, Nouadhibou and other wilayas not covered by the operation. Food assistance is also being given to Tuareg refugees in one camp in the east of the country.
In Niger, an above-average national cereal harvest was realized in 1996, estimated at 2.3 million tons, pending final production estimates. However, despite this good overall harvest, the food supply is tight in several areas which gathered poor crops, some for the second consecutive year. The national early warning system estimates that the nine arrondissements of Ouallam, Tahoua, Tanout, Tchintabaraden, N�Guigmi, Arlit, Tchirozerine, Bilma and Agadez are particularly vulnerable. Twenty-four other arrondissements are also classified as moderately vulnerable and need to be monitored closely. The situation is particularly worrying in Tanout area, in Zinder department, where substantial population movements have been reported. Cereal prices are much higher than last year during the same period and cereals are sometimes scarce in the markets.
The situation varies greatly in villages but assistance is most urgently needed in the arrondissement of Tanout and neighbouring areas of Dakoro arrondissement. Some assistance will also be needed in urban areas where migrants from affected areas have concentrated, notably in Zinder. In addition, the national food reserve is at a very low level. In December, the government launched an appeal for external assistance amounting to 118 000 tons of cereals. As of mid-April, around 40 000 tons of cereals have been pledged by various donors through local purchases, purchases in neighbouring countries or imported.
Prospects are generally favourable for the 1996/97 coarse grains crop, the harvesting of which should start in the next few weeks. Despite a relatively late start of rains in several areas and dry conditions during parts of the season, rainfall so far has been generally abundant, even excessive in several producing regions. In Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, another year of good harvest is in prospect, provided the favourable conditions continue until the end of April. Continuous moderate to heavy rains in January and February, particularly in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe, resulted in extensive flooding along river valleys, leading to population displacement and loss of property and crops. This may also result in reduced yields as waterlogging of soils was reported in several provinces. These adverse conditions may also lead to a reduction in the size of the projected bumper maize crop in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
In Madagascar, prospects are generally favourable for the 1997 paddy crop, even though cyclones in January and February resulted in localized foodcrop losses. However, a recent outbreak of migratory locusts in the southern areas may adversely affect crops if immediate action is not taken with assistance from the international community.
The volume of cereal import requirements in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa in 1996/97 is expected to decline, reflecting generally good harvests in western Africa and parts of the Horn in 1996, and favourable outlook in southern Africa. GIEWS estimates of 1996 production and 1996/97 import and food aid needs are summarised in Table 2. The total food aid requirements of these countries in 1996/97 are estimated at some 1.9 million tons compared to last year�s receipts of 2.4 million tons. Cereal food aid pledges for 1996/97 amount to 1.55 million tons as of mid-April, of which only 0.78 million tons have been received so far. Thus donors are urged to make additional pledges to cover the outstanding needs of several countries and to speed up the delivery of the pledges already made.
The humanitarian situation in the Great Lakes Region remains grim and a serious challenge to the international community, particularly in eastern Zaire where Rwandan refugees are dying of starvation and disease in large numbers. In Burundi, Liberia, Rwanda and Sierra Leone the food situation continues to be precarious, while it has become uncertain in several countries of eastern Africa. The attention of the international community is drawn to the following four areas requiring assistance.
