FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook July/August/September 1997 page2

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook July/August/September 1997

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1993/94	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98 forecast	Change 1997/98 over 1996/97
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . million ton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	564	528	547	590	600	1.7
Coarse grains	809	892	810	906	888	-2.0
Rice, milled	355	362	370	381	381	-0.1
(paddy)	(529)	(540)	(552)	(568)	(567)	0.0
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 729	1 782	1 728	1 877	1 869	-0.4
Developing countries	932	931	959	1 008	1 003	-0.5
Developed countries	797	851	769	868	865	-0.3
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	95	92	94	92	94	1.9
Coarse grains	85	88	92	86	89	2.9
Rice (milled)	17	21	19	17	18	3.5
All cereals	196	202	205	196	201	2.5
Developing countries	131	146	151	141	150	6.1
Developed countries	66	56	54	55	51	-6.8
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	13.0	9.4	7.5	7.5 4/
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	565	553	565	580	591	1.9
Coarse grains	841	880	860	887	893	0.7
Rice (milled)	359	368	372	381	383	0.6
All cereals	1 764	1 801	1 796	1 847	1 867	1.1
Developing countries	1 017	1 049	1 080	1 106	1 117	1.0
Developed countries	747	752	716	741	750	1.2
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	171	171	171	173	173	-0.1
Developed countries	130	129	129	130	130	0.2
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	145	118	103	110	121	10.1
Coarse grains	138	146	101	118	108	-8.5
Rice (milled)	63	55	54	55	51	-7.4
All cereals	345	318	258	282	280	-1.0
Developing countries	169	158	153	155	147	-5.4
Developed countries	176	161	105	127	133	4.2
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . . . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	19.1	17.7	14.0	15.1	14.9
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	250	289	336	352	340	-6.8 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	143	157	216	183	146 8/	-26.3 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	113	104	159	137	110 8/	-42.9 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	15.1	19.0	16.8	12.8	14.6 8/	12.3 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	( . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	347	338	352	350
Cereal production 1/	864	861	889	936	938	0.2
Per caput production (kg.)	253	248	252	261	257	-1.3
Cereal imports 2/	62.5	71.9	76.9	62.2
of which: Food aid 3/	7.9	7.9	6.5	6.5
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	12.6	11.0	8.5	10.4

SOURCE: FAO Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995. 5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 6/ Average of quotations for January-July 1997. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Average of quotations for July-August 1997. 9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 395 in 1994), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.