In southern Africa, the threat of an El Nino-induced drought appears to be receding. However, above average temperatures and below normal rainfall were recorded in early February in Lesotho and localised areas of Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The overall harvest outlook for the sub-region remains satisfactory so far, but a major deterioration in weather conditions in the rest of the season, could still reduce cereal production significantly from 1997’s relatively good harvest.
In eastern Africa, El Niño-related heavy rains resulted in extensive flooding, localized crop losses and severe damage to roads, bridges and rail lines. Normal trade activities and food aid distribution have been seriously disrupted in the sub-region. In Somalia and Kenya, the worst affected countries, the rains have significantly reduced the 1997/98 secondary season crops and resulted in severe animal diseases that are killing large numbers of livestock.
In western Africa, 1997 cereal production was below average in some sahelian countries, while coastal countries recorded above average production. Following recent events in Sierra Leone, the food supply situation is likely to ease in Freetown but to worsen in rural areas if fighting spreads throughout the country in the coming months, coinciding with the rice planting period.
In Asia, the outlook for winter grains is mixed with reduced wheat production expected in China and Pakistan while above average outputs are forecast in India and Bangladesh. Serious El Niño related weather anomalies threaten crops in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand. The food situation in parts of Indonesia is extremely tight and the Government is providing emergency assistance. In Korea, DPR the food situation continues to be grave as prolonged drought drastically reduced grain production in 1997.
In Central America and the Caribbean below-average coarse grain output is reported in most countries in 1997/98, mainly due to the adverse weather effects associated with El Niño. Drier than normal conditions are forecast in the weeks ahead for most of the region, which could affect sowing of the 1998 first season crops. In South America, heavy rains and flooding, as well as severe drought in some parts, are seriously affecting the 1998 crops in all Pacific coastal countries. In north-east Brazil, despite recent beneficial rains, the outlook is uncertain for planting of the maize crop due to drier than normal conditions.
In the CIS, the 1998 harvest is unlikely to exceed the previous year’s good volume of 156 million tonnes. Winter grain plantings fell in the Ukraine and lower grain prices in the region are likely to reduce incentives to plant spring grains.
Early prospects for the 1998 cereal crops are mixed in Europe. Winter wheat plantings are reported to be up again in the major producing countries in the EC but in the eastern European countries plantings were affected in several countries by unfavourable weather conditions.
The United States winter wheat area has fallen by 4 percent to the lowest level since 1973, but crop conditions are favourable so far. Early indications point to a reduction in spring wheat plantings too.
In Australia a good 1997 grain crop has been harvested, despite some erratic weather during the season. Prospects are generally favourable for the 1998 summer crops following adequate rains in the major producing areas.