In western Africa, first rains were received in early March in southern parts of the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea and permitted maize planting. Seasonably dry conditions prevail in the north of these countries. In Liberia and Sierra Leone, the agriculture sector is improving with rehabilitation programmes underway, but both countries remain heavily dependant on international food assistance. In the Sahel, seasonably dry conditions prevail.

In central Africa, planting of coarse grains is underway in the south of Cameroon and Central African Republic. In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, prospects for the bean crop are poor in Kivu area due to flooding, shortages of inputs and civil unrest.

In eastern Africa, drier weather in March, following heavy rains and floods in the previous months, allowed harvesting of the 1997/98 secondary cereal crops to be completed. Excessive humidity associated with El Niño phenomenon had varying effects throughout the sub-region but, in general, it reduced cereal output. The dry weather in March improved soil conditions for planting of the 1998 main season cereal crops in Kenya and Somalia, where, however, above average precipitation in the first two dekads of April have raised concerns over possible further floods. By contrast, abundant rains in April benefited crops in Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania.

In southern Africa, harvesting is underway in some areas. As of mid-April, crop-growing conditions have been generally favourable, with normal to above normal rainfall in most parts. Despite localized crop damage due to excessive rains, prospects are favourable for harvests in Angola, Malawi, Mozambique Swaziland and Zambia. However, prolonged dry spells affected yields in Lesotho, parts of Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Plantings were also reduced in some of these areas as a result of the drought warning and the late onset of rains. Early frost in the upcoming winter period could damage part of the late planted crops in some areas. In Madagascar, serious damage to crops could occur due to the persistence of locusts in several parts

In Asia, prospects for the 1998 winter grains remain mixed. In China, a reduced winter wheat output is forecast reflecting a decline in the area sown due to drought conditions in some major wheat producing provinces. In India, a bumper wheat crop is in prospect despite late planting in some regions due to heavy rains. In Pakistan a record wheat crop is anticipated due to increases in area sown, in the availability of agricultural credit and in the use of fertilizer. In Bangladesh, prospects for the boro rice crop have improved with occasional showers and prolonged cool weather. The wheat production outlook also remains favourable. In Thailand, a slight increase in the second rice crop is in prospect due to expansion in area. In Indonesia, a recent FAO/WFP Mission has found that severe drought conditions associated with the El Niño phenomenon have reduced food production in the country prompting a record rice import requirement for the current marketing year. Similarly, in the Philippines drought conditions are expected to severely reduce the secondary paddy and maize crops to be harvested in May-June. Cereal production in Iraq and Afghanistan is again likely to be constrained by a shortage of essential agricultural inputs and continued insecurity in the latter. Growing conditions in Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey are satisfactory.

In Central America and the Caribbean, the outlook is uncertain for the 1998 first season cereal crops, the planting of which is about to start. Abnormally dry weather and high temperatures associated with El Niño continue to prevail, except for some parts along the Atlantic coast, and drier than normal conditions are forecast in the weeks ahead. In the Dominican Republic and Haiti, planting has started under generally normal conditions, while in Cuba torrential rains and flooding since mid-March in the eastern and western parts of the country have affected all crops, particularly the important foreign exchange earner, sugar cane. In Jamaica, heavy rain and flooding in the eastern parts, combined with drought in other areas, have affected food and cash crops.

In South America, harvesting of the 1998 maize crop is underway in the southern areas. In Argentina, a record crop is expected while in Brazil production should decline considerably from last year’s satisfactory level but would still remain about average. In Paraguay and Uruguay, above-average outputs are anticipated; in Chile, maize production should be average. In the Andean countries, El Niño-related adverse weather continues to affect the development of the 1998 first season cereal crops. Harvesting has started in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru and lower maize and potato outputs relative to last year are anticipated. In Colombia, the outlook is uncertain for the planting of the 1998 first season cereal crops, which is about to start, reflecting dry weather in the main growing regions and heavy rains and flooding in other parts. In Venezuela, planting has started under generally normal conditions.

In Europe, weather conditions in the EC have been generally favourable for the 1998 winter crops and the spring sowing is underway or already completed in some parts. Aggregate wheat output is tentatively forecast to increase in 1998 while coarse grains output could fall. Prospects for 1998 cereal crops in the eastern countries of the Region are mixed. In Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania, three of the largest producers, smaller crops are in prospect reflecting adverse planting and growing conditions in some areas, but also farmers' limited ability to purchase inputs and to maintain machinery in working order.

In the Commonwealth of Independent States (IS), the early outlook for the 1998 grain and pulse harvest is uncertain. Reduced winter grain plantings, notably in the Ukraine, more winterkill than last year, a sharp reduction in the area ploughed in the autumn, a late and difficult start to the spring field work and persistent problems with working capital, access to inputs, credit and machinery could result in a somewhat smaller harvest than the 156 million tons (grains and pulses) in 1997. Preliminary indications are that in the Ukraine, the area sown to winter crops fell by about 1 million hectares and, of the area sown, 8 percent will have to be re-sown in the spring. In the Russian Federation the outlook is somewhat better. The area sown to winter grains is close to last year’s level of nearly 13.5 million hectares, but crops on 10 percent of the area have to be re-sown as a result of winterkill and flooding in Krasnodar. Heavy rains and heavy snowfalls in April in European parts have delayed the start of spring field work. Preliminary indications are that the spring grain area could decline but that farmers’ demand for better quality seed is increasing. The area sown to feedgrains is expected to fall in response to unsold exportable surpluses from the good 1997 harvest. In Kazakhstan, where the bulk of planting occurs in May, the aggregate area sown to grains could decline by another 1-2 million hectares. In a number of smaller states, (e.g. Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Kyrgyz Republic) the rapid expansion of the areas sown to cereals is likely to slow or be reversed. FAO tentatively forecasts the aggregate output of wheat in the CIS to decline by up to 5 million tons to about 76 million tons, mainly reflecting declines in both the Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Output of coarse grains, most of which is still to be planted, is also tentatively expected to fall by 5 million tons to 65 million tons, as planned larger plantings of barley in the Ukraine only partially offset lower areas in the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan.

In North America, the winter wheat area has fallen in the United States and spring plantings are also expected to decrease. Thus, although winterkill has been less than normal and developing crops are generally reported to be in good condition, aggregate output is tentatively forecast to fall by about 10 percent. The bulk of the summer 1998 coarse grains planting begins in April. The maize area is tentatively forecast to increase marginally. In Canada, the bulk of the wheat and coarse grain planting will start in May.

In Oceania, output of the minor 1998 summer coarse grain crop in Australia is forecast to increase sharply following increased plantings and favourable growing conditions. Early indications for the 1998 winter grains point to a reduction in plantings due to diversification to other crops which have better price prospects. Prospects for the 1998 crops are generally unfavourable in Papua New Guinea due to prolonged drought; food production in 1997 is estimated to have declined by about 50 percent from the previous year due to severe El Niño-related drought. Crops have also been affected by drought in the Solomon Islands. The food supply situation is expected to be tight in the Cook Islands due to cyclone damage to crops.