FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No. 3, June 1998 Page 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99 forecast	Change 1998/99 over 1997/98
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	528	548	590	615	605	-1.5
Coarse grains	892	810	919	911	925	1.6
Rice, milled	362	372	383	383	380	-0.8
(paddy)	(539)	(554)	(571)	(571)	(567)	0.3
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 782	1 729	1 892	1 909	1 911	0.1
Developing countries	931	960	1 024	1 006	1 027	2.2
Developed countries	851	769	868	903	883	-2.2
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	93	94	96	95	90	-5.3
Coarse grains	88	93	88	88	91	3.7
Rice (milled)	21	20	19	22	20	-9.5
All cereals	203	206	203	205	201	-1.9
Developing countries	146	151	148	154	150	-2.5
Developed countries	57	55	56	51	51	-0.1
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	9.4	7.7	4.9	5.5 4/
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	556	564	578	598	603	0.9
Coarse grains	881	858	894	902	914	1.3
Rice (milled)	368	373	381	384	387	0.9
All cereals	1 805	1 795	1 853	1 883	1 904	1.1
Developing countries	1 052	1 081	1 110	1 117	1 136	1.7
Developed countries	753	714	743	767	768	0.2
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	170	171	172	172	173	0.4
Developed countries	127	128	128	129	129	0.2
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . )
Wheat	119	105	115	134	136	1.5
Coarse grains	147	104	125	134	139	3.7
Rice (milled)	54	54	57	54	53	-1.3
All cereals	320	262	297	321	328	1.9
Developing countries	160	157	172	162	158	-2.6
Developed countries	160	106	124	160	170	6.5
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	17.8	14.2	15.7	19.9	17.2
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . . . . U.S.$/ton . . . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	289	336	352	316	315 6/	-7.9 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	157	216	181	144 8/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	104	159	135	113 8/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	19.0	16.8	12.8	12.0 8/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	( . . . . . . . . . million tons . . . . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	344	360	378	372	371	-0.3
Cereal production 1/	861	890	952	932	948	1.7
Per caput production (kg.)	249	253	266	257	258	0.3
Cereal imports 2/	71.9	77.0	65.4	71.0
of which: Food aid 3/	7.9	6.7	4.1	4.6
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	11.0	8.7	6.3	6.5

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June.
4/ Forecast based on donors' budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995.
5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 6/ Average of quotations for January-May 1998.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Average of quotations for July 1997-May 1998.
9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 505 in 1996), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.