Sub-Saharan Africa’s current food outlook is mixed. In several countries of eastern Africa, including Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda, harvest prospects are generally favourable as of mid-1998, signalling some recovery from the disastrous effects of recent droughts and floods. By contrast, the food situation remains precarious in southern Sudan and Somalia, where weather adversities and continuing civil strife and insecurity have combined to block recovery. In the Great Lakes region, despite continuing insecurity and population displacements in parts, food production is steadily recovering, with production currently approaching the pre-crisis levels of the early 1990s. In southern Africa, food production has fallen significantly in a number of countries, largely associated with El Niño-related weather anomalies, while in a handful of others harvests have been above-average. In western Africa, several countries are experiencing food supply difficulties, either because of localized production shortfalls in 1997 or because of recent or ongoing civil strife. On balance, sub-Saharan Africa’s cereal import and food aid requirements in 1998 are expected to be significantly higher than in 1997.
In southern Sudan, affected by continuing civil strife and a poor harvest in 1997, the food supply situation has deteriorated drastically over recent months. Acute food shortages and severe malnutrition are on the rise despite stepped-up food aid distributions. Famine conditions have emerged in parts, particularly in Bahr-El-Gazal region where intensified fighting has resulted in fresh waves of population displacements. In Wau, the influx of people is reported at 2 500 per day. Recent reports indicate that children are dying from starvation in Bahr-El-Ghazal. Nutrition surveys also show that the rate of severe malnutrition among children has increased up to 78 percent in some locations (Ajiep). In the worst affected states of Bahr-El-Ghazal, Eastern Equatoria, Western Upper Nile and Jonglei, the number of people facing famine conditions is estimated at 1.2 million. Food aid requirements of this population have been revised upwards by more than 50 percent to 15 000 tonnes of food per month, mostly cereals and pulses. Overall, however, about 2.6 million people are estimated to be in need of food assistance in Sudan, mostly in the south.
Insecurity and poor road conditions are serious constraints to reaching the affected population, making food aid delivery very costly as it necessitates air transport. Despite a substantial increase, food aid distributions in June fell almost 40 percent short of the estimated requirements. However, the situation is likely to improve following the recent authorization by the Government to increase the number of aircraft used for relief operations. There is an urgent need for more food aid pledges and logistical support if large-scale starvation is to be avoided.
Harvesting of 1998 cereal crops has started in most southern parts but prospects are unfavourable. The area planted was reduced by continuous population displacements, coupled with late and insufficient rains. Shortages of seeds, despite large distribution programmes by international agencies, also contributed to the decline in plantings, while erratic rains in May and June negatively affected crop development. The situation gives cause for serious concern in areas west of the Nile where prolonged dry weather has been experienced, particularly in Northern Bahr-El-Ghazal. Poor harvests are anticipated in these areas. By contrast, the high water levels of the White Nile resulted in floods in the eastern parts, along the Sobat corridor. This will be the second consecutive reduced harvest, following the 1997 cereal production which was estimated at 45 percent lower than in 1996. With the exhaustion of coping mechanisms following 15 years of civil conflict, protracted emergency food assistance will be required well into 1999.
In Somalia, prospects for the 1998 main season (Gu) cereal crops, currently being harvested are poor. The area planted to maize and sorghum is estimated to be one-third below the already reduced level of last year. This is due to insufficient rains since the beginning of the season, combined with a number of negative factors associated with the recent floods, including overlapping of the Gu season with the off-season crops planted immediately after the floods, excessive weeds, rodent and pest infestations at planting, destruction of irrigation infrastructure, by floods and shortages of seeds. Insecurity in parts has also been a major contributing factor. Also, yields are expected to be reduced by a prolonged dry spell from the second week of May to the end of June, only temporarily interrupted by heavy rains and floods on 24 and 25 June in some areas. Preliminary forecasts point to a cereal output half the previous year’s Gu production and just about one-third of the pre-civil strife level. The most affected regions are Lower and Middle Shebelle, Lower Juba, Hiraan and the North-west.
While livestock are reported to be in good condition because of abundant pastures, the current ban by Saudi Arabia on livestock and meat imports from Somalia is severely affecting incomes of the of pastoralist population, as Saudi Arabia is their major market. Moreover, as livestock is Somalia’s main source of foreign exchange, reduced exports have led to the depreciation of the national currency and higher prices of imported cereals. Prices of sorghum and maize have also increased sharply in the past month in anticipation of a poor Gu harvest.
The reduced 1998 Gu production follows the disastrous floods in late 1997 which dealt a severe blow to the already precarious food situation of the country, resulting from a succession of poor harvests and the prolonged civil conflict. Increased food assistance will be required until the second season harvest from December 1998, if a major food crisis is to be avoided.
In Eritrea, the already tight food supply situation resulting from the reduced cereal harvest of 1997 has deteriorated in the southern parts due to the conflict with neighbouring Ethiopia. It is estimated that over 50 000 people have been displaced by hostilities in the southern Afar region, putting additional strain on the fragile food supply situation of the host communities. These displaced people will not be able to grow crops in the current season. At the national level, food prices have been increasing since the last harvest in December.
Planting of the 1998 cereal crops is underway. Early prospects are uncertain following below average rains in June in south-eastern parts.
In Ethiopia, an overall good secondary Belg harvest is in progress. Despite a late and poor start of the rains, subsequent precipitation was generally good throughout the rest of the season, particularly in south western parts. In areas where the Belg crops account for the bulk of the annual food supplies, the good production has led to a decline in food prices, improving food security. However, in areas of South Tigray, North and South Wello, East and West Hararghe and Northwest Shewa, the Belg harvest is estimated to be reduced following a prolonged dry spell early in the season and pest infestations.
Despite an overall satisfactory food supply situation, an estimated 5.3 million people, including those who gathered a poor harvest in 1997, as well as vulnerable people, are facing food difficulties. Although food aid pledges by donors cover almost all of the estimated requirements, deliveries fall short of target levels. This is in part due to the closure of the Massawa and Assab ports in Eritrea, following the recent border conflict, and the congestion of the Djibouti port. The food situation of 170 000 people displaced by the conflict also gives cause for concern.
Early prospects for the 1998 Meher season crops, accounting for over 90 percent of the annual cereal production, are favourable. Generally good rains in May and June benefited plantings and the establishment of early planted crops.
In Kenya, large imports of maize between April and June in response to the Government’s waiver of maize import duties, have led to significant declines in prices and improved access to food for the majority of the population, following a reduced cereal harvest last year. While the overall food situation is satisfactory, food difficulties persist in north-eastern pastoral areas where floods in late 1997 caused huge losses of livestock. Prices have not decreased in these areas because of poor road conditions which hamper transport of food.
Average to above-average rains in June maintained favourable growing conditions for the 1998 "long rains" cereal crops. Despite a delay to the start of the rainy season and subsequent abundant precipitation, the area planted to maize is estimated at average levels. The early outlook for the harvest, starting in October in the major growing area of the Rift Valley, is favourable. By contrast, plantings of beans are sharply reduced reflecting shortages of seeds following two consecutive years of reduced output and high prices
In Tanzania, the output of the 1998 "seasonal rains" crops in the unimodal rainfall areas, which accounts for the bulk of the annual food crop production, and of the "masika" crops in the bimodal areas, was forecast by a recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to be substantially higher than the reduced level of last year and above average. The output of the ‘vuli’ crops, harvested earlier in the year, was also good despite severe floods attributed to El Niño. The Mission therefore estimated that domestic supplies will exceed demand for all food crops, except millet and sorghum, for which deficits are expected to be covered by cross-substitution with other crops. Informal cross-border food exports to neighbouring countries are anticipated.
However, much of Central areas and parts of the Northern and Coast areas are experiencing considerable food deficits. The Government in cooperation with WFP is in the process of identifying food-deficit villages and vulnerable households in need of food assistance. No externally sourced food aid is required.
In Uganda, although the overall food supply situation is satisfactory, serious food difficulties are being experienced in northern and western areas, where persistent civil strife continues to cause population displacements and disruption of agricultural activities. Increased insecurity in these areas since mid-April has hampered access to the displaced population and the delivery of food assistance. Elsewhere, the tight food supply situation of large numbers in western and northern parts, where the 1997 second season harvest was reduced, will improve with the arrival of the new harvest onto the markets from this month.
Overall prospects for the 1998 first season harvest, which has started in some parts of the country, are uncertain. A delay in the onset of the rains and by irregular and erratic precipitation during the growing season are likely to have resulted in yield reductions. However, lower yields in some areas may be partially compensated by an increase in the area planted to maize in response to better seed availability. In the northern districts of Gulu and Kitgum the intensification of rebel activity at planting time will result in reduced production this season.
In Guinea-Bissau, fighting erupted in the capital Bissau on 7 June between a section of the armed forces and troops loyal to the government of President Joao Bernardo Vieira. The conflict spread from the capital to others towns, notably Mansoa. About 400 000 people, almost 80 percent of the capital’s population, fled their homes to the rural regions of Cacheu, Biombo and Quinara, and to the coastal islands or neighbouring Senegal and Guinea Conakry. About 3 000 foreigners, including staff of the UN, diplomatic missions, humanitarian agencies and international NGOs, have been evacuated. A cease-fire agreement was signed on 26 July and should allow implementation of emergency assistance programmes.
The conflict occured at the start of the growing season with fighting seriously disrupting the agricultural activities. Insecurity has also hampered the distribution of inputs to farmers. As a result, food production in 1998 is likely to fall and the food supply situation could be very difficult in 1998/99. There is already growing concern over food and water availability in towns and other locations, which have received large numbers of displaced people. Current local food stocks are not sufficient and normal food supply channels have been disrupted. In addition, with the rainy season underway, there is a real risk of cholera and malaria epidemics.
Guinea-Bissau normally imports about 40 percent of its cereal consumption requirement, almost totally through the Bissau seaport. Thus, insecurity and fighting caused food shortages in the capital and its vicinity. Before the crisis, FAO estimated the cereal import requirement for the 1997/98 marketing year (November/October) at 76 000 tonnes, but actual imports are likely to be lower as Bissau port activities were suspended during the conflict. Wider effects may include reduced cereal supply in southern Senegal as substantial quantities of locally produced or imported rice are usually exported there. Church missions have been active in distributing drinking water and rice, but food stocks are running out and fuel supplies are dwindling. External emergency assistance can now be shipped.
In Sierra Leone, the food supply situation is improving in Freetown and in the centre of the country, where relative peace now prevails. Food, seeds and tools are being distributed in these areas. However, fighting in the east and north of the country continues between ECOMOG and the ousted junta forces and is adversely affecting food availability and agricultural activities. Population displacements and looting are reported in these areas, and foodcrop production during the current growing season is expected to remain very limited. In addition, low rainfall in June over the centre and west of the country could affect crop development and further limit agricultural output.
About 130 000 of the 200 000 refugees located near the border with Guinea are inaccessible to humanitarian agencies due to security problems. These displaced persons are very vulnerable and serious malnutrition problems are likely if food assistance cannot be provided quickly. The overall food supply situation of the country remains precarious. Following several years of civil strife, the country relies mostly on food aid to cover its needs. A UN Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal for the humanitarian assistance to the country was launched in mid-July. The Appeal sought US$11.2 million to meet immediate humanitarian needs for the period 1 July-31 December 1998. FAO estimated the most urgent needs, for assisting 40 000 farm families in the regions of Bafata and Gabu, at US$2.7 million. In late July, FAO approved a project aiming to deliver seeds and agricultural input to affected populations. Food prices in the urban markets are high and are expected to increase until the start of the harvesting period. Commercial activities have resumed in Freetown and in the centre of the country following the reopening of the main roads. The eastern and northern areas remain isolated from the rest of the country due to insecurity.
In Liberia, the growing season started well in late March and above-normal rains have been recorded over the whole country since the beginning of the season. Rehabilitation programmes are underway, including provision of agricultural inputs, facilitated by improved security. The food supply situation is stable but the country still relies heavily on food assistance to meet its needs. Food prices remain high. The number of refugees and displaced persons is currently estimated at 800 000, including some 56 000 new arrivals from Sierra Leone. Organised repatriation is underway.
In the Sahelian countries, following localized below-average harvests in several countries in 1997, food supply difficulties are reported in several deficit areas of Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal. A long dry spell in July/August last year severely stressed crops and reduced cereal output in the western part of the Sahel (The Gambia, Mauritania and Senegal). Reduced harvests also affected vulnerable populations in various parts of Burkina Faso and Niger. The final 1997 production estimates put the aggregate output of cereals in the nine CILSS member countries at 8.2 million tonnes, which is about 10 percent lower than both the 1996 production and the average for the past five years. However, markets remain generally well supplied, although cereal prices are high and rising in the affected areas. Sales at subsidized prices or free food distributions are underway or planned for the lean season, and several governments have appealed for international food assistance for the vulnerable populations. In Chad and Niger, the situation is aggravated by the low level of the national food security reserve, for which limited funds and donor pledges for its replenishment have been secured.
Although the negative impact of El Niño has been less than earlier anticipated in the sub-region, prolonged dry spells adversely affected crops in several countries, particularly in Lesotho, Namibia, Zambia, Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe. As a consequence, cereal production in these countries is expected to be below the 1997 levels. However, in Angola, Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland, abundant and relatively well-distributed rains during much of the season led to above-average cereal harvests. In Madagascar, locusts persist in many cereal growing areas but their impact on crops has generally been limited.
Reflecting the reduced harvest in several countries of the sub-region, cereal import requirements are forecast to rise sharply from the 1997 levels, particularly in Lesotho, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Targeted emergency food assistance is needed in localized areas for people affected by floods or drought. Donor support will also be needed in several countries, particularly for farm inputs, to assist in the recovery of production to normal levels.
In Burundi, a recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission estimated food production of the 1998 B season 4 percent higher than in the previous year. This reflects a relatively calm security situation coupled with good and well distributed rainfall during the growing season. The Mission forecast the 1998 aggregate production at 15 percent above the 1997 level.
As a result of the improved harvest, food prices, mainly of beans and bananas, have started to decline. This should improve the food security situation of the majority of the population. However, food difficulties remain for some 530 000 people in regroupment camps and for displaced persons who are returning to their farms. Food assistance is required for these segments of the population.
In Rwanda, an improved harvest is underway. Good rains in May and June benefited crops and the output of the1998 second season foodcrops is provisionally estimated to be higher than last year and around the level of 1990. The tight food situation following insufficient food production last season has eased with the new harvest. Food prices started to decline in June.
However, in the northwestern prefectures of Gitarama, Ruhengeri and Gisenyi, which are affected by persistent insecurity and violent incidents, the food situation remains tight for displaced people who were unable to plant crops this season. Food assistance is needed for this population. There is also an urgent need of agricultural inputs to allow displaced people to restart production activities next season. Despite the overall improved harvest, the food situation is also expected to remain difficult in Gikongoro prefecture, where production was reduced by shortages of labour and seeds, and for the large number of people made vulnerable by the events of 1994.
In Democratic Republic of Congo, where prospects for the harvest of the 1998 B season crops were favourable, in the eastern provinces of North and South Kivu, the resurgence of fighting in early August is likely to cause a deterioration of the food supply situation. Civil strife had already resulted in considerable population displacements and impeded normal agricultural activities. Severe malnutrition is reported. It is estimated that about 80 percent of the rural population in these provinces have been forced to flee their homes at least once during the last twelve months. In addition, an influx of Burundian refugees has been reported near Uvira. Recent intensified fighting will also hamper marketing activities and is likely to trigger fresh population displacements.
In addition, the worst flooding in 35 years caused by abnormally heavy rains in early 1998, affected large areas of DRC, causing extensive damage to housing, infrastructure, crops and food stocks, and hampering the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Insecurity and flooding have substantially reduced crop production, resulting in a sharp increase in food prices.
The rainy season has started generally on time in the central and eastern part of the Sahel. The first rains arrived in April in Burkina Faso, the extreme south of Chad, Mali and Niger. By mid-May, they had reached the eastern part of Guinea-Bissau and by early to mid-June the extreme south-east of Senegal and the east of The Gambia. Rains were also registered in several areas of Mauritania. The rainy season started somewhat late in mid or late July in central and northern Senegal. Improved rains in mid-July benefited crops in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. Satellite imagery of the last dekad of July indicated that clouds progressed northwards and covered most producing areas of the Sahel, allowing widespread plantings in northern Senegal and Mauritania. Torrential rains in early August were reported in Niamey region and western Niger, causing damage to infrastructures and possibly also to crops.
Planting progressed northwards following the onset of rains. Crops have generally emerged satisfactorily in Mali, Burkina Faso, western Niger and southern Chad. The late onset of the rainy season in central and northern Senegal has shortened the growing season.
Grasshoppers are reported in Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger. Other insects or grain-eating birds are also reported in several countries. Treatments are underway. Some limited Desert Locust activity is reported in Mali. Small-scale breeding is expected to commence with the onset of the summer rains in southern Mauritania, northern Mali and Niger.
Between January and July 1998, Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions were fielded to Angola, Burundi, Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia, Tanzania and Zambia. In close collaboration with all parties concerned, the Missions made estimates of cereal and other food production and cereal import requirements for 1998 or 1998/99.
Angola: An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (April/May) forecast the 1997/98 cereal production at 594 000 tonnes, some 38 percent higher than last year’s poor rain-reduced production. The composition of this output was 85 percent maize and the remainder sorghum and millet. Production of other foodcrops, particularly cassava and sweet potatoes, was also estimated to have risen as a result of increased planted area and favourable weather which improved yields. Nevertheless,. the country will need to import some 470 000 tonnes of cereals to meet consumption requirements in the 1998/99 marketing year (May/April).
Burundi: An FAO Crop and Food supply Assessment Mission which visited Burundi in July found that the country’s food crop production is on the way to recovery. Total food production during the 1998 B season was estimated to increase by 4 percent over last year’s B season. Aggregate foodcrop output in 1998 is forecast at 15 percent above the previous year’s volume.
Republic of Congo: Following the intense civil strife, which displaced nearly the entire population of Brazzaville between May and November 1997, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment team visited the country in January, as part of a larger Inter-Agency Needs Assessment Mission, to review the food supply situation. The Mission estimated that total food production, in cereal-equivalent terms, would fall short of requirements by 118 000 tonnes in 1998. Normally, this would have been imported commercially without much difficulty as the country’s import capacity is high. But because of the severe disruption of the food supply/marketing system, the country would only be able to import 72 000 tonnes or 61 percent of the shortfall, the rest is anticipated to be met through food aid and a variety of coping mechanisms.
Mozambique: An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in April/May confirmed that Mozambique continues to be a success story in food crop production. The country’s cereal harvest was estimated at 1.69 million tonnes, 10 percent on last year’s increased production, continuing a steady recovery since 1994. An exportable maize surplus of 59 000 tonnes was forecast.
Somalia: The outlook for the 1998 main "Gu" season cereal crop, which normally accounts for 70-80 percent of annual production, was found to be unfavourable by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in May. The area planted to maize and sorghum was estimated to have substantially declined, while yields were forecast to fall sharply due to a combination of factors, including insufficient and irregular rains. The Mission forecast that the 1998 Gu cereal production, the fifth consecutive poor harvest, will at best be one-quarter of last year’s reduced level.
Tanzania: An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, visited the country in June/July to assess the "seasonal rains" and "masika" crops. The Mission forecast the 1998 food production substantially above last year’s reduced level and above average. Surpluses are forecast for all foodcrops, except millet and sorghum. However, large numbers of people in food deficit areas in Central, Northern and Coast areas will require food assistance.
Zambia: An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission which visited the country in April/May found that El Niño-related weather anomalies had caused a sharp drop in food production. The northern part of the country had suffered excessive rainfall and floods, while the southern part experienced near-drought conditions, causing a 37 percent decline in total cereal production compared to the previous year’s level. Cereal import requirements for 1998/99 were forecast at 660 000 tonnes (90 percent maize, 10 percent rice/wheat). With commercial imports forecast at 364 000 tonnes, the uncovered deficit of 296 000 tonnes needs to be met largely through external assistance as the country is seriously short of foreign exchange.
Cereal import requirements in sub-Saharan Africa in 1998 are expected to increase significantly, mainly reflecting reduced first season harvests in eastern Africa and production shortfalls in several countries in southern Africa. GIEWS latest estimates of 1997 production and 1997/98 import and food aid requirements are summarized in Table 2. The total food aid requirement is estimated at 2.5 million tonnes, some 44 percent higher than actual imports in 1996/97. Total food aid pledges for 1997/98, including those carried over from 1996/97, amount to 1.8 million tonnes of which 1.1 million tonnes have been delivered so far.
The food situation in southern Sudan is very serious and needs urgent and concerted action to stave off large scale starvation. In Sierra Leone, large sections of the farming community in the east and north are still being displaced by continuing fighting and therefore unable to plant or attend to their crops. In Somalia, yet another very poor harvest is in prospect, the fifth in a row. In the Great Lakes region, there are encouraging signs of recovery in food production, but the situation remains fragile. Against this background, the attention of the international community is drawn to the following areas requiring priority action.
