FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2, August 1998

PART II : POSITION BY SUB-REGION

The harvesting of the 1997/98 coarse grain crops is complete in southern Africa and the main season crops are being harvested or are in the ground in several countries in eastern Africa. Coarse grain crops are approaching maturity in parts of the coastal countries of western Africa and are at the flowering or grain formation stages in parts of central Africa. In the Sahelian countries of western Africa, as well as in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan in eastern Africa, the main season cereal crops are now being planted.

Cereal Crop Calendar

In eastern Africa, prospects for the 1998 foodcrops are mixed. In Rwanda and Burundi, the overall harvest outlook is good as a result of favourable weather during the growing season; production of the second season foodcrops is provisionally estimated to be higher than last year and around pre-war levels. In Uganda, where the harvest forecast of the first season has started, prospects are uncertain; erratic rains during the growing season are likely to have reduced yields. In Tanzania, the output of the 1998 main season crops, being harvested, is estimated to be one-third higher than last year’s reduced level. In Ethiopia, the secondary Belg crop being harvested is anticipated to be a record, reflecting generally favourable weather; however production will be below average in the northern highland areas. Early prospects for the recently planted 1998 main Meher crops are generally favourable but more rains are needed in the north-eastern parts. In Sudan, early prospects for the 1998 main season cereal crops now being planted are promising, reflecting favourable weather so far. However, in the southern parts, where harvesting has started, the outlook is unfavourable due to insufficient rains, shortages of seeds and continuous population displacements due to civil conflict. In Somalia, prospects for the main Gu cereal crops are poor reflecting sharply reduced plantings and dry weather; production is forecast to be half the previous year’s Gu production and just one-third of the pre-civil strife average (1982-88). In Kenya, the area planted to maize is estimated to be average and a production is expected to recover from last year’s level, providing good rains continue through the remainder of the season. By contrast, production of beans is anticipated to be reduced as a result of reduced plantings. In Eritrea, the outlook for planting of the 1998 main season cereal and pulse crops is uncertain, reflecting below average rains in June in the south-eastern parts.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the sub-region in marketing year 1997/98 is estimated at 4.4 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at 3.3 million tonnes and the food aid requirements at some 1.1 million tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late July amount to 0.9 million tonnes, however, only 0.6 million tonnes have been delivered so far. The aggregate cereal import requirement of Tanzania and Somalia, which have entered their new marketing year 1998/99, amount to 0.4 million tonnes.

In southern Africa, harvest of the 1998 coarse grain crop is complete and output is expected to be well below the 1997 level of about 17 million tonnes. The negative impact of El Niño has been less than earlier anticipated but the situation varies considerably among countries. In Angola, Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland, growing conditions were generally favourable, with normal to above-normal rainfall in most parts. Despite localized yield losses due to excessive rains, initial estimates point to above-average cereal harvests in these countries. However, in Lesotho, Namibia and Zambia, output is estimated to be well below average as a result of abnormal weather conditions. Production is also estimated to be below average in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe, as a result of irregular rainfall with prolonged dry spells which reduced yields. Plantings were also reduced in several countries as a result of the drought warnings and the late onset of rains. In Madagascar, the recently harvested 1998 main rice crop was less affected by locusts than initially anticipated. However, given the persistence of large locust swarms in several parts of the country and their reported movement towards productive central and northern areas, serious damage to crops cannot yet be ruled out.

Cereal import requirements during the 1998/99 marketing year are expected to significantly increase in several countries, including Lesotho, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Although a large part of the imports is expected to be met through commercial channels, government-supported imports may be necessary to assist vulnerable people and other affected groups. A major impact of the reduced harvests in countries such as South Africa and Zimbabwe will be to limit their exportable surpluses to deficit countries in the sub-region.

In western Africa, the rainy season started in early March in the southern part of the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea where the first maize crop is developing under favourable conditions. Recently planted coarse grains are developing satisfactorily in the north. In the Sahelian countries, planting progressed northwards following the onset of the rains. Crops are developing mostly satisfactorily in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger following improved rains since mid-July but the late start of the rains may affect crop prospects in Senegal, The Gambia and Mauritania. Torrential rains in early August in western Niger may have caused flooding and crop losses.

The 1997 aggregate cereal output for the eight coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea (Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo) is estimated at some 26.3 million tonnes compared to 25.6 million tonnes in 1996. Average to above-average harvests were gathered in all the coastal countries, except in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Latest estimates point to record cereal crops in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria. The forecast for Togo is close to normal. In the Sahel, following the release of final production estimates in most CILSS member countries, the aggregate output of cereals (including paddy) has been revised downwards to 8.2 million tonnes. This is about 10 percent lower than the average for the last five years. Output is estimated to be above average in Chad, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Mali, but below average in Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal.

In the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, the food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory through the 1998 marketing year, except in Liberia and Sierra Leone where production has been affected by civil strife. In the Sahel, the food supply situation is expected to be tighter in 1998 than in 1997 in several countries where harvests were below average. In Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal and Mauritania, reduced cereal production substantially increased import requirements. Several areas are at risk of food shortages and will require some assistance. Localised deficits can be covered by transfers from surplus areas or through triangular transactions, notably from Mali or coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea. In Cape Verde, the food supply situation is not anticipated to be critical despite the reduced 1997 harvest as production is always below needs, with the gap covered by commercial cereal imports and/or food aid.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the western Africa sub-region in the 1997/98 marketing year is estimated at 7 million tonnes. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 5.0 million tonnes and the food aid requirement at 0.7 million tonnes mainly wheat and rice. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late July 1998 amount to around 348 000 tonnes, of which 169 000 tonnes have been delivered so far. Local purchases are strongly recommended to cover ongoing or foreseen food aid programmes or for the replenishment of the national security stock where cereal stocks have been used for distribution or sales in food-deficit areas.

In central Africa, average to above-average harvests were gathered in 1997 in most countries. Coarse grains are now growing under generally favourable conditions in Cameroon and Central African Republic. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, maize is growing satisfactorily in the centre and the south. Intensified civil strife in early August will disrupt agricultural and marketing activities in the east, in Kivu region, and fresh population displacements are likely.

The food supply situation remains tight in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo due to insecurity and transport constraints. In the Republic of Congo, the displaced population of Brazzaville has largely returned but large sections remain vulnerable due to loss of jobs, high food prices and a seriously disrupted food marketing system. For the 1997/98 or 1998 marketing year, the cereal import requirement for the seven countries of the sub-region is estimated at 751 000 tonnes.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Cereal Imports and Food Aid Requirements by Sub-Region
(in thousand tonnes)