FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.5, November 1998 Page2

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.5, November 1998

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99 forecast	Change 1998/99 over 1997/98
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . )					(.percentage )
Wheat	528	548	590	615	594	-3.5
Coarse grains	892	812	923	909	903	-0.7
Rice, milled	362	369	383	388	375	-3.2
(paddy)	(540)	(550)	(571)	(578)	(561)	-2.9
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 782	1 729	1 895	1 912	1 872	-2.1
Developing countries	931	960	1 027	1 007	1 016	0.9
Developed countries	851	769	869	905	856	-5.4
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	93	94	97	95	91	-3.6
Coarse grains	89	93	88	88	89	1.8
Rice (milled)	21	20	19	25	20	-18.6
All cereals	203	207	204	208	201	-3.1
Developing countries	146	151	148	155	149	-4.1
Developed countries	57	55	56	52	52	-0.4
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	9.4	7.4	5.3	5.3	9.0 4/	68.4
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	556	564	579	592	596	0.7
Coarse grains	881	858	894	898	896	-0.3
Rice (milled)	368	372	380	383	385	0.6
All cereals	1 805	1 794	1 853	1 874	1 878	0.2
Developing countries	1 052	1 080	1 111	1 116	1 124	0.8
Developed countries	753	714	741	758	753	-0.7
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	170	170	172	172	172	0.1
Developed countries	127	128	128	128	129	0.3
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . )
Wheat	117	104	113	135	131	-3.2
Coarse grains	146	105	130	139	142	2.1
Rice (milled)	54	53	56	56	50	-10.9
All cereals	317	261	299	331	323	-2.3
Developing countries	157	155	173	160	155	-3.3
Developed countries	160	106	126	171	168	-1.3
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	17.7	14.1	16.0	17.6	17.0
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . . U.S.$/tonne . . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	289	336	352	316	323 6/	-0.3 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	157	216	181	142	118 8/	-21.3 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	104	159	135	112	92 8/	-18.4 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	19.0	16.8	12.8	11.7	8.3 8/	-38.5 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	( . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	343	357	379	359	338	-6.0
Cereal production 1/	861	887	952	934	937	0.4
Per caput production (kg.)	249	252	266	257	255	-1.1
Cereal imports 2/	71.8	77.1	65.3	74.0	64.3	-13.0
of which: Food aid 3/	7.9	6.4	4.4	4.8	8.0	65.4
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . .)
covered by food aid	11.0	8.3	6.8	6.5	12.4

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/ Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995. 5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 6/ Average of quotations for January-October 1998. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Average of quotations for July-October 1998. 9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 505 in 1996), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.