FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3, December 1998

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HIGHLIGHTS


A major food crisis is developing in Somalia. A poor harvest, the fifth in a row, has been gathered in Somalia in the just-ended main cropping season of 1998. Drought, reduced plantings, an abnormally high incidence of crop pests and diseases associated with floods earlier in the year, and the long-running civil strife, account for the extremely poor harvest. This follows the devastation of the first season crops by the worst floods in decades associated with the El Niño phenomenon. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s ban on livestock imports from Somalia on account of recent livestock disease outbreaks has severely curtailed the country’s import capacity. Increasing malnutrition and large-scale population movements in search of food and work are reported. It is estimated that some 125 000 tonnes of food aid will be needed until at least July 1999, the beginning of the next main season harvest. In southern Sudan, the severe famine conditions in recent months have eased with improved food aid distribution and a better harvest. However, food assistance will be needed for the large number of internally displaced people and for food-deficit farm households affected by heightened insecurity during the growing season.

Elsewhere in eastern Africa, the food supply situation has markedly improved compared to last year. In Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan (other than the south), Tanzania and Uganda, good harvests have been realized or are in prospect, reflecting favourable weather, except in localized pockets where dry weather, floods or civil strife affected food production. FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions have just returned from Ethiopia and Sudan and are currently finalizing their reports.

In the Great Lakes region, food production has recovered significantly, except in eastern DRC where civil strife continues to hamper farming activities and large-scale population movements both within the country and to neighbouring countries are reported. Prices of basic foodstuffs in local markets are rising rapidly as supplies become increasingly scarce. The food and nutritional situation of the internally displaced persons and other vulnerable groups in this part of DRC gives serious cause for concern. In Burundi, food production and supply have recovered significantly due to favourable weather and a partial resumption of economic activity with an easing of the regional economic embargo. In Rwanda, the overall food supply situation has improved with increased production this year, except in the north-western prefectures where persistent insecurity continues to disrupt agricultural activities and is displacing increasing numbers of the local population.

In western Africa, a bumper harvest is in prospect but food difficulties are anticipated in some parts. Reflecting generally favourable crop growing conditions, a bumper harvest is forecast in the Sahel, with record crops in the main cereal producing countries. However, in Cape Verde, prolonged dry spells at critical stages of crop growth have substantially reduced production, while in Guinea-Bissau the civil conflict that erupted at the start of the growing season disrupted farming activities and production is anticipated to be well below average. In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone will continue to rely heavily on external food assistance, despite some recovery in food production, particularly in Liberia where security has markedly improved in the rural areas.

In southern Africa, the overall food supply situation remains stable, but could tighten in some countries where El Niño-related weather anomalies substantially reduced cereal production. They include particularly Lesotho, Namibia and Zambia, where large production shortfalls were recorded. In Angola, despite an improvement in production, the food supply situation is anticipated to deteriorate over the coming months, reflecting the current unstable security conditions.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s cereal import requirements in 1998/99 are projected to be lower than in 1997/98, reflecting increased harvests in several parts, particularly in western and eastern Africa.


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