FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.1, February 1999

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1994/95	1995/96	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99 forecast	Change 1998/99 over 1997/98
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . )					(percentage )
Wheat	528	548	590	614	598	-2.6
Coarse grains	891	812	921	904	909	0.5
Rice, milled	362	369	383	387	373	-3.6
(paddy)	(540)	(550)	(571)	(577(	(557)	-3.5
All cereals (including milled rice)	1 781	1 730	1 893	1 905	1 880	-1.3
Developing countries	932	960	1 027	1 005	1 020	1.4
Developed countries	850	770	867	899	860	-4.4
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	93	94	98	96	93	-2.5
Coarse grains	89	93	89	89	90	1.0
Rice (milled)	21	19	19	27	21	-20.5
All cereals	203	207	206	211	204	-3.3
Developing countries	146	152	150	158	150	-5.3
Developed countries	58	55	56	53	54	2.6
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	9.4	7.4	5.3	5.3	9.0 4/	68.4
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	555	564	577	591	599	1.4
Coarse grains	879	859	891	896	899	0.3
Rice (milled)	367	372	380	383	382	-0.2
All cereals	1 801	1 795	1 849	1 871	1 881	0.5
Developing countries	1 051	1 080	1 110	1 117	1 128	1.0
Developed countries	750	715	739	754	753	-0.1
Per Caput Food Use	( . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . .)
Developing countries	170	171	172	171	172	0.5
Developed countries	127	128	128	129	129	0.4
WORLD STOCKS 5/	( . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . )
Wheat	117	104	115	137	136	-1.1
Coarse grains	147	104	131	139	142	2.5
Rice (milled)	55	53	56	55	50	-9.7
All cereals	320	260	302	331	328	-1.0
Developing countries	158	155	175	161	155	-4.2
Developed countries	162	106	127	170	173	2.0
Stocks as % of world	( . . . . . . . .. percentage . . . . . . .)
cereal consumption	17.8	14.1	16.2	17.6	17.2
EXPORT PRICES 3/	( . . . . . . U.S.$/tonne . . . . . .)
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	289	336	352	316	315	-0.3
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	157	216	181	142	123 7/	-17.0 6/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	104	159	135	112	95 7/	-17.1 6/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	19.0	16.8	12.8	11.7	8.4 7/	-34.7 6/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	( . . . . million tonnes . . . . .)
Roots & tubers production 1/	343	357	379	359	338	-5.9
Cereal production 1/	861	887	952	931	939	0.9
Per caput production (kg.)	249	252	266	257	255	-0.6
Cereal imports 2/	71.7	77.3	66.7	76.2	66.6	-12.5
of which: Food aid 3/	7.9	6.4	4.4	4.8	8.0	65.4
Proportion of cereal import	( . . . . . percentage . . . . .)
covered by food aid	11.0	8.3	6.7	6.4	12.0

SOURCE: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June.
4 / Forecast based on donors’ budgetary allocations and their minimum contributions under the Food Aid Convention (FAC) 1995.
5/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
6/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
7/ Average of quotations for July 1998-January 1999.
8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 505 in 1996), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.