In western Africa, generally favourable conditions in Senegal,
Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad in 1998 resulted
in a record crop, estimated at 10.6 million tonnes, some 17 percent higher than
average. Bumper harvests are estimated in Chad, Mali and Niger. Else where in
the Sahel, output was above average in The Gambia, close to average in
Burkina Faso and Senegal but below normal in Cape Verde and Mauritania.
In contrast, cereal production is estimated to be well below average in Guinea-Bissau
where civil strife has hampered farming. In the coastal countries, aggregate
1998 cereal production is estimated at an above-average 29.7 million tonnes.
Improved security and favourable weather resulted in a good cereal harvest in
Liberia, but in neighbouring Sierra Leone, 1998 crop production was well
below average and the food supply situation remains critical in many areas.
In central Africa, crop prospects are generally favourable in Central African Republic and the Cameroon. In contrast there has been significant deterioration in the food supply situation in the Republic of Congo, following recent eruption of civil strife. The food situation also remains precarious in many parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo
In eastern Africa, harvesting of 1998/99 second season crops has been completed in most countries, except in Ethiopia, where planting is about to commence. Late and erratic rains reduced plantings, yields and output in several countries, particularly in Kenya, Tanzania and Somalia. Overall 1998/99 cereal production for the sub-region as a whole is projected to be above average, following a good main season.
In southern Africa, rainfall has been generally favourable for 1998/99 crops in most countries. Abundant rains continued through January in many areas, raising concerns that yields may be reduced by water-logging in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Preliminary indications point to an overall increase in area sown to maize and other crops compared to last year. Prospects are also generally good for rice in Madagascar. However, prospects are unfavourable in Angola as a result of continued fighting in major cereal producing provinces.
In Asia, the outlook for winter grains is mixed. In China, drought in major producing areas is estimated to have damaged crops on several million hectares. In contrast, the wheat crop in India is expected to be good following favourable weather and an increase in cultivated area. In Pakistan, conditions in January favoured winter wheat, following dry conditions earlier. Similarly, unexpected rains in Thailand improved prospects for the second rice crop. In Bangladesh, a campaign to boost Boro rice has been launched and the outlook for the winter wheat remains favourable. In Indonesia, a recovery in main season rice production is expected this year, following generally favourable conditions. In DPR Korea, food supply difficulties are likely to persist despite some recovery in domestic production in 1998. In Afghanistan, prospects for the 1999 harvest in May/June remain uncertain, due mainly to the ongoing fighting in the northern provinces and continued shortages of essential inputs. Crop prospects remain poor in Iraq and Jordan following unfavourable weather. In Syria and Turkey conditions have been satisfactory for cereal production.
In Central America and the Caribbean, 1998/99 cereal output is expected to be even lower than output last year, which was severely affected by El Niño related weather disturbances. Widespread losses in maize and bean production occurred in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Mexico following devastation caused by hurricane "Mitch". In Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic heavy rain and flooding following hurricane "Georges" seriously damaged the main paddy crop.
In South America, harvesting of the 1998/99 wheat crop has been completed in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile. Production was below average and almost 5 million tonnes lower than in 1997/98, due to reduced planting and adverse weather. In Bolivia and Ecuador, harvesting of the 1999 first season wheat crop will begin in March, while in Peru harvesting is due to start from April. In Brazil, maize is being harvested in some areas and production is expected to recover from last year's El Niño affected season. In the Andean countries, harvesting of first season coarse grain crops is about to begin, while in Colombia and Venezuela, planting of the 1999/2000 first season crop will commence in April.
In Europe, weather conditions for winter grain crops have been generally satisfactory so far. The output of winter wheat is expected to fall in 1999, due to a combination of reduced plantings and adverse autumn weather in several countries. Although the area under winter coarse grains is also estimated to have fallen, overall production will depend largely on the level of spring planting. In the Baltics, conditions over winter for grains have been mostly favourable so far, though some crop damage is likely in Latvia. 1998 cereal and pulse production was reduced by persistent rains in the summer, with lower harvests in all three countries. In Lithuania, production fell by 8 percent to 2.8 million tons.
In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the early outlook for 1999 winter wheat and rye is mixed. In the Ukraine and Russian Federation, aggregate area sown has declined marginally with most crops planted late or under dry conditions. Reports indicate that crops are in satisfactory condition on 85 percent of the area planted in the Ukraine, but are poor on over 2 million hectares of the 13 million planted in the Russian Federation. The aggregate 1998 cereal and pulse harvest is estimated by FAO at 111 million tons, nearly 30 percent less than output in the previous year (157 million tons). FAO's estimates for the major states are 15 percent higher than those reported officially.
In North America, prospects for the 1999 wheat crop in the United States are satisfactory. Although the area planted to winter wheat is estimated to have fallen by 7 percent from 1998, weather conditions have been generally favourable so far. In Canada, the bulk of the 1999 wheat crop will be sown in May-June. Early indications point to a further reduction in wheat area due to poor price prospects.
In Oceania, 1998 winter wheat production in Australia is estimated at 21.2 million tonnes, about 9 percent higher than the previous year. Output of coarse grains, however, has fallen by about 16 percent to 8.4 million tonnes. Prospects for the small summer coarse grain crop for harvest in 1999 are good due to favourable planting conditions in late 1998.