Land preparation has started for planting of winter crops. However, farming activities are delayed by below-normal rainfall and high temperatures in September and October. The 1999 cereal production is estimated at 2.2 million tonnes, some 29 percent below last year. Wheat production stands 1.5 million tonnes, 25 percent below the 1998 level. Imports of cereals, mostly wheat, are forecast at about 6 million tonnes for the 1999/2000 (July/June) marketing year.
Planting of the mostly irrigated wheat crop is underway. The 1999 wheat production stands at about 6.3 million tonnes, some 4 percent up on last year. Maize output is estimated at 5.2 million tonnes and total cereal at about 17 million tonnes. The recently harvested rice crop is estimated at about 6 million tonnes, some 34 percent above last year's level. It is also above average as a result of a large increase in area planted and good yields.
Land preparation has started for winter crops but farming activities are delayed as a result of below normal rainfall in September and October. Production of cereals in 1999 is estimated at 3.8 million tonnes, some 42 percent below last year's crop, due to unfavourable weather conditions. The output of wheat, estimated at about 2.1 million tonnes, is 51 percent lower than last year while barley is down 25 percent. Imports of wheat in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at 2.8 million tonnes and coarse grains at 1.6 million tonnes.
Rainfall in September and October was below normal, delaying
the start of the new crop season. However, abundant rains
were received in early November, covering most parts of the
country, particularly the northern cereal growing regions.
This allowed farmers to complete ploughing and start sowing
cereal crops to be harvested next April/May. The 1999 cereal
production is now estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, 9 percent
higher than last year's output. This includes 1.4 million
tonnes of wheat and 410 000 tonnes of barley.
Cereals imports in 1999/2000 (July/June) are now estimated at
about 1.5 million tonnes, mostly wheat and maize.
WESTERN AFRICA
Generally above normal rains have been received since August. Harvest prospects are generally favourable. However, torrential rains caused flooding in many villages and thousands of people were displaced. Infestations of armyworms caused damage to emerging millet, sorghum and maize in Atakora and Borgou departments.
Food supply is satisfactory in the south. Prices remain lower than in 1998 mainly because Sahelian countries imported less this year and farmers needed to sell more to compensate for low cotton incomes.
Harvest prospects are favourable following generally above normal rains since July. Cumulative rainfall is generally normal to above normal countrywide except in the east and west. Soil moisture was generally adequate for satisfactory crop development. Pastures are abundant and of good quality. The pest situation remained mostly calm despite some attacks of blister beetles and other insects on millet, maize or rice in several areas.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 18 to 22 October estimated 1999 cereal production at 2 448 164 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), 9 percent below the 1998 record but 2 percent above the last five years average. Millet and sorghum production decreased by 9 percent and 8 percent respectively while maize and fonio production increased by 10 percent and 29 percent respectively.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and prices of local millet and sorghum are low. However, some populations may be vulnerable following flooding or successive reduced harvests.
Significant and widespread rains since August permitted satisfactory crop development. Soil moisture reserves are adequate to meet crop needs in most areas. Maize and beans are developing satisfactorily, particularly in Fogo and Brava islands where good harvests are expected. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in late October estimated 1999 cereal production at a record 25 745 tonnes which is about 5 times higher than in 1998 and 1997 and the last five-year average. Following this record crop, the overall food supply situation will improve in rural areas affected by several successive poor crops. Markets are well supplied and stocks and planned imports or food aid for the year 2000 are adequate to cover needs.
Harvest prospects are favourable, reflecting above-normal rains in August and September. Pastures are abundant and the pest situation remained mostly calm. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 18 to 22 October estimated 1999 cereal production at 1 153 294 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), which is 15 percent below the 1998 record but 9 percent above the five-year average. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. However, impassable roads due to heavy rains in recent months have affected market supply. Prices of cereals decreased in rural areas as producers sold their stocks before the harvest. WFP distributed 1 337 tonnes of food in deficit zones (Mayo- Kebbi, Tandjil�, Logone occidental and Logone oriental) and 640 tonnes as emergency relief to refugees in Adr� in the east.
Abundant and regular rains benefited crop development. Harvest prospects are favourable so far. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Cereal import requirement for 1999 (January/December), is estimated at 640 000 tonnes, mostly wheat and rice.
Harvest prospects are good, reflecting satisfactory growing conditions. Unusually heavy rains have been registered, notably in August. They caused substantial flooding, notably in the west. Cumulative rainfall is above normal as it generally exceeds 1000 mm, reaching up to 1723.4 mm in Sapu in south CRD. Pastures are adequate. No significant pest infestation has been reported. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 18 to 22 October estimated 1999 cereal production at 137 144 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), 20 percent above the 1998 level and 29 percent above the five-year average.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied. Vulnerable populations affected by poor crops in 1998 received WFP food aid of 2 671 tonnes of cereals, 400 tonnes of pulses and 167 tonnes of oil.
Growing conditions are satisfactory so far. Rainfall was well distributed and above normal from the second dekad of June to mid-September, favouring crop development. Army worm infestations were reported in the Upper East region, threatening millet and sorghum. In September, severe floods devastated three areas in the Northern Regions as major rivers burst their banks. Some 332 000 people have been made homeless by the floods (300 000 in Northern Region, 15 000 in Upper West Region and 17 000 in Upper East Region). The floods have destroyed farmlands, crops and livestock and caused an outbreak of cholera in some villages. Emergency assistance is underway for some 300 000 victims.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except in the flooded areas. About 20 000 Liberian refugees remain in the country, receiving food assistance.
Harvest prospects are generally favourable, reflecting adequate growing conditions. However, heavy rains in July/August caused crop damage. Thousands of people were displaced in Conakry due to floods.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except for displaced persons and refugees. According to UNHCR, some 366 000 refugees remain in the country. Over 14 000 have recently been moved away from the Liberian border following fighting in mid-August.
Abundant and well-distributed rains in September and October favoured crop development. Cumulative rainfall is above normal and soil moisture reserves are sufficient for satisfactory crop development. Rice has been transplanted in swamps. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 11 to 15 October estimated the 1999 cereal production at 138 666 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), which is 6 percent above last year�s output but remains below the 1997/98 pre-crisis level and below average. Production of coarse grains increased, while that of rice decreased due to flooding and pest attacks.
The overall food supply situation has improved after the conflict. However, some populations are still facing food supply difficulties, notably in urban areas. Repatriation of refugees is underway and displaced persons and returnees are receiving food assistance.
Growing conditions are favourable so far but crop prospects remain constrained by continuing civil disturbances in some areas. The 1999 rainy season has progressed satisfactorily with generally well distributed and above-normal rainfall. Output is expected to be similar to or above last year�s level, except in the north where fighting broke out in Lofa County in August. Agricultural production has been increasing in Bong, Bomi, Montserrado and Nimba counties, but not in Maryland, Sinoe and Grand Kru where poor roads have made access to farms difficult. With the exception of Lofa County, relative peace prevails elsewhere in the country and has exerted a positive influence on farming activities. The cultivated area should be substantially higher than in 1998, with rice production expected to be around 80 percent of pre- war level and 100 percent for cassava. Although a shortage of basic agricultural inputs was a limiting factor for farmers, it was minimized by substantial distribution of seeds and tools and improved technical assistance to resettling farm families. In Lofa County, most of the estimated 25 000 displaced people are farmers who will not be able to harvest their crops. Several thousands have been displaced from Voinjama and Kolahum in upper Lofa to Tarvey in lower Lofa.
The overall food situation has improved significantly in 1999 as rice production in 1998 was up to 70 percent of pre-civil war levels, compared to 25 percent in 1995, and cassava production reached almost 100 percent of pre-civil war levels compared to 50 percent in 1995. Food supply on the urban markets is relatively stable, and in general, prices are relatively lower than in 1998. Food supply in rural areas continued to be tight, particularly during the rainy season when roads are in poor condition. Resettlement and rehabilitation activities have allowed refugees and internally displaced persons to return to their homes. However, humanitarian programmes for Liberian returnees and Sierra Leonean refugees were disrupted by insecurity and looting in Lofa county, where the nutritional and health conditions of displaced people has deteriorated. About 90 000 refugees from Sierra Leone remain in Liberia. The country continues to rely heavily on food aid.
Abundant and well-distributed rains since August benefited crop development and maintained adequate soil moisture in most productive zones. Pastures of good quality are available across the country. Surveys reported isolated Desert Locusts in a few areas in the Timetrine and the Adrar des Iforas. During September, mature adults and swarms were reported near Aguelhok, Tessalit and in the Tilemsi Valley, and numbers are expected to increase in these areas and could extend to parts of Tamesna. Once vegetation starts to dry out, some concentration and grouping may occur. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 25 to 29 October estimated 1999 cereal production at 2 951 633 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), exceeding the previous 1998 record by 17 percent. The estimated output is 28 percent above the five-year average. Production of rice increased by 13 percent and 41 percent respectively compared to 1998 and the average for the last five years, while coarse grains production increased by 17 percent and 23 percent respectively. Following two successive bumper crops, the overall food situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and cereal prices remain low. Although some areas may be in deficit, no food aid is required.
Prospects for rainfed and recession crops are favourable, reflecting abundant precipitation which, however, caused flooding of irrigated rice fields. Abundant rains in mid and late August and September, combined with the high level reached by the Senegal river, caused substantial flooding in Brakna, Gorgol and Trarza, in the Senegal river basin. An inter-agency mission has been organized to assess the impact of these floods. Pastures are in good condition. Low numbers of Desert Locusts were reported in September in Brakna west of Moudjeria, in Tagant near Tidjikja, in the Akoukar region near A�oun El Atrous and north of Nema. Limited breeding started in early September and is expected to continue in Brakna and Aouker A�oun, and will almost certainly extend to Trarza, northern Assaba and the two Hodhs. Once vegetation starts to dry out, locusts are likely to concentrate and form small groups. Some may also start to appear further north in Inchiri and Adrar. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 18 to 22 October estimated aggregate cereal production in 1999/2000 at 250 900 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent) which is 28 percent above the 195 444 tonnes harvested in 1998/99. The food situation is likely to improve in rural areas following this good harvest, except in the flooded areas. Food distributions are underway for the affected populations. WFP distributions also started in September for 161 692 people in Aftout and Affol� affected by poor harvests in 1998.
Growing conditions have been generally favourable during the rainy season. Cumulative rainfall is above normal. Good pastures are widespread. Infestations of grasshoppers and other insects are reported in Diffa, Tahoua, Maradi and Zinder departments. Low numbers of Desert Locust adults may be present and breeding in central Tamesna and on the western side of the A�r, but as vegetation starts to dry out, the numbers will decline. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 25 to 29 October estimated the 1999 cereal production at 2 832 600 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent) which is about 5 percent below last year�s record of 2.98 million tonnes but is 23 percent above average. Production of rice increased by almost 25 percent while that of coarse grains decreased. The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and prices of cereals are low as cereal traders sold their stocks before the harvest.
Rains started later than normal over northern Nigeria, reaching these areas only in late May. However, despite the late planting, crop production is expected to be normal to above normal following widespread and abundant rainfall up to the end of October. Due to heavy rain, three hydroelectric dams released water in the Kaduna, Benue and Niger rivers in early October, causing flooding of villages located along the river banks and population displacements. The Nigerian Government estimates that about 300 000 people have been affected by the flooding, and that several thousand hectares have been flooded in 5 States (Sokoto, Adamwara, Borno, Kwara and mostly Niger State). Most displaced people have lost their homes and most of their crop fields, and have temporarily settled on higher ground. About 6 000 hectares of sugar cane plantation, expected to produce about 25 000 tonnes of sugar, have been flooded in central region. The south-eastern Bayelsa State and five districts in the Niger Delta (in the municipalities of Patani, Oshimili South, Ndokwa East, Burutu and Bomadi) have also been affected by floods. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory except in the flooded areas.
Overall crop prospects are favourable, reflecting widespread and generally above normal rainfall in August and September. The Senegal River overflowed its banks, causing flooding, notably in Saint-Louis region. Pastures are abundant countrywide, benefiting from regular rains since July. Infestations of grasshoppers and other insects are reported in several areas. Prospects for recession crops are good as large areas have been flooded in the Senegal River valley. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 25 to 29 October estimated 1999 rainfed cereal production at about 962 000 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent), which is 7 percent above the five-year average. With recession and off-season crops estimated at about 47 000 tonnes, the aggregate cereal production amounts to 1 009 100 tonnes (rice in paddy equivalent). The overall food situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and the price of rice is stable. Prices of local cereals are low. However, in the flooded areas in Diourbel, Kaolack, Fatick regions and in the S�n�gal river valley (Dagana, Podor, Matam, Bakel), localized food supply difficulties are likely.
Growing conditions have generally been favourable since the beginning of the season, despite reduced rains in late July and in August. Security conditions have improved in many rural areas but might not affect the 1999 production substantially. Output is expected to remain close to last year�s level despite favourable climatic conditions so far. Insecurity in major parts of the country at the beginning of the season prevented the delivery of agricultural inputs and disrupted agricultural activities. Recent fighting in the northern towns of Makeni and Lunsar interrupted food deliveries. Following the peace agreement in early July, the security situation improved and allowed emergency and rehabilitation activities in the country. Food distribution is underway following the reopening of main roads from Freetown to Bo and Kenema, and from neighbouring Guinea to Kambia. However, the amount of food is insufficient to meet the needs of the large number of returnees and displaced persons, particularly in the north and the east. Current estimates put the number of displaced people at 700 000, whose nutritional status is reported to be precarious. A recent inter-agency food needs assessment mission to Kailahun area estimated the total population in the visited towns at about 15 000 inhabitants of whom some 3 000 may be Sierra Leonean refugees who fled Lofa county in Liberia due to renewed insecurity. Even with successful implementation of the peace agreement, the country will continue to rely heavily on food assistance for several years.
Harvest prospects are favourable reflecting widespread and
above-normal rains during the growing season. Soil moisture
reserves are adequate and so far the pest situation remains
calm. Floods have been reported in Kara, Plateaux, Maritime
and Savanes regions. The worst affected regions is Savanes
where at least 1 000 hectares of arable land have been
inundated, hundreds of homes and over 100 bridges destroyed,
and 800 km of roads made impassable, isolating villages and
affecting an estimated 42 000 people.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory.
CENTRAL AFRICA
Crop prospects are favourable, reflecting generally widespread and normal to above normal rainfall. Heavy rains and the spilling of water from the Lagdo hydroelectric dam caused floods and some damage to infrastructure along the River Benue in the Northern Province. About 1 000 persons have been displaced The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. However, following food supply difficulties in northern areas affected by poor crops in 1998, WFP distributed 9 500 tonnes of food to 660 000 affected persons.
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (10 November)
Following reduced rainfall in June and early July, precipitation remained generally widespread and normal to above normal since mid-July. Rains were particularly heavy in late July/early August and in late September/early October. Harvest prospects are favourable. The food supply situation is satisfactory.
CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF* (10 November)
Abundant and regular rains covered the entire country in
September and October except in the south-east and the
extreme west. The food supply situation is very tight in most
parts of the country. Recent FAO estimates indicate that over
10 million people are living in conditions of food
insecurity, including some two million seriously-affected
people. In addition, 150 000 people have taken refuge in
neighbouring countries. The most affected groups according to
the report include 831 000 displaced persons, 844 000
vulnerable urban residents and some 300 000 refugees
currently in the DRC. Other affected people include 5.1
million living along the front line, and 2.5 million people
in homes hosting the displaced. Another 4.1 million people
are in isolated rural areas and are vulnerable to food
insecurity. The division of the country in two since the
start of the conflict has virtually halted all formal
internal trade, while population displacements have seriously
disrupted agricultural activities. The deterioration of
people's purchasing power, and the shortage of basic consumer
goods have exacerbated the food problem.
A cholera outbreak was reported in Kisangani in September.
Tens of thousands have fled ethnic clashes in Bunia in the
northeast, near the Ugandan border, following an outbreak of
ethnic clashes between the Wahema and Walendu people. Many
villages have been destroyed since July and 100 000 to
150 000 people have fled their homes. Fighting is also
reported in Equateur Province.
The upsurge of civil conflict between Government forces and
Ninja militia disrupted agriculture and marketing activities,
reduced food imports and seriously affected the nutrition and
food supply situation, notably in Brazzaville. About 800 000
persons were displaced following civil disturbances. About
100 000 came to Pointe Noire and 200 000 to Brazzaville,
while about half a million were still in the interior of the
country. Heavy rains caused floods that affected some 40 000
people in about 30 villages in the Cuvette region in the
north. The Pool region remains inaccessible to humanitarian
organizations. Out of the 200 000 displaced people who have
returned from Pool to Brazzaville since May, 14 700 people,
including more than 3 300 children under five, have been
treated for serious malnutrition in the city's nutritional
centres.
EQUATORIAL GUINEA (10 November)
Rainfall remained below average in October. The staple crops
are sweet potatoes, cassava and plantains.
The main foodcrops are cassava and plantains but some maize
is also produced (around 25 000 tonnes). The country
commercially imports the bulk of its cereal requirement,
estimated at around 82 000 tonnes in 1999. Around 10 000
refugees from Congo-Brazzaville are reported in temporary
sites or in Libreville.
The deteriorating security situation in Burundi following an
escalation of violence in rural areas has resulted in large-
scale population displacement and forced a suspension of
virtually all humanitarian assistance. Intensified fighting
between Government forces and rebels in several areas during
the past two months, particularly in Bujumbura Rural
province, has caused loss of civilian lives, including the
death of two UN international humanitarian workers, and the
displacement of an estimated 300 000 people who have been
grouped into camps by the Government. The newly displaced add
to an estimated 500 000 people who were already in 300
�regroupment� sites away from their homes. Living conditions
in these sites are reported to be extremely poor, with no
clean water, shelter and sanitary facilities. It is estimated
that 821 000 people, or more than 13 percent of the total
population, are at present in regroupment camps. The worst
affected provinces are Bujumbura Rural with 73 percent of its
population displaced, followed by Bubanza with 60 percent,
Makamba with 24 percent and Bururi with 20 percent. Also, in
the province of Rutana, which was relatively calm until
recently, the number of displaced people has increased from
around 2 000 to over 16 000 since September.
The food and health situation of the regrouped populations
gives cause for serious concern. Only a limited number of
people have access to their fields, at a time when the first
cropping season has already started. With most of them
entirely dependent on emergency food aid for their survival,
the suspension of international humanitarian assistance some
three weeks ago following the killing of UN staff has
aggravated an already dire food and health situation. If
security is not restored quickly to allow a resumption of
humanitarian assistance, there is a serious threat of
starvation among the regrouped population.
Notwithstanding the impact of population displacement on food
production, crop prospects for the first season of 1999/2000
(September-January) are also affected by unfavourable
weather. Planting, which normally starts from mid-September
to mid-October, has been delayed by dry weather during
October. In the most productive areas of Kirungo in the
north, Mosso in the east and Imbo in the west, no significant
planting has taken place because of insufficient
precipitation. In areas where planting took place with the
first rains in late September, such as in the highlands of
the central plateau, crops are reported to be stressed by
lack of soil moisture. Even if more rains are received in the
coming weeks, serious reductions in plantings and yields can
be expected, thus compounding the food supply difficulties
further over the next year.
A reduced harvest this season will follow a below-normal
harvest of the last season, which ended last July. It is,
therefore, expected that the already tight supply of cereals
and pulses, which has resulted in high prices, is set to
deteriorate in the coming months. The current dry weather
could also negatively affect planting in the first season of
2000 starting next February as harvesting of the late-planted
crops this season will overlap with planting next season, and
a shortage of seeds could limit the planted area.
Normal to above-normal rains in September and October
maintained favourable conditions for the 1999 main season
cereal and pulse crops the harvest of which has already
started. However, the erratic and inadequate spring rains
(March to May) and the below average rains in June that
delayed land preparation and sowing in some parts of the
country may affect yields. In addition, in areas affected by
the armed conflict with neighbouring Ethiopia, production is
expected to be seriously affected due to population
displacement.
Most rangelands were reported to have good vegetative cover,
which should cover livestock needs for at least 6 months. The
Desert Locust situation remains calm but with winter rains
along the coastal areas approaching, there is risk of
increased locust numbers along the Red Sea coastal plains.
The food situation is very tight for more than 550 000 people
affected by the war with Ethiopia. Donor support is sought
for an emergency operation approved by FAO and WFP in March
this year to provide food assistance for 268 000 people most
affected by the war. Total pledges by the end of October
amounted to 20 000 tonnes, of which 5 000 have been
delivered.
Heavy Rains in September and October in several parts of the
country have resulted in serious flooding causing several
deaths, displacement of a large number of people and severe
damage to crops and property. Food and non-food assistance is
being distributed by the Government in the affected areas.
Elsewhere in the country, earlier drought conditions and
unusually heavy rains in October have affected yield
potential of the 1999 main "Meher" season cereal and pulse
crops now being harvested. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply
Assessment Mission is planned to visit the country in mid-
November to assess the "Meher" production and estimate food
assistance requirements in 2000. The Government has recently
revised the number of people in need of food assistance to 7
million from the previous estimate of 5.3 million, including
those affected by the failure of the "Belg" season, as well
as 385 000 internally displaced people due to the ongoing
conflict with Eritrea. An Emergency Operation for food
assistance to 1.2 million people, worth some US$40.5 million
was jointly approved by FAO and WFP on 31 May 1999. Pledges
as of 31 October amounted to 565 000 tonnes, of which 476 000
tonnes have been delivered.
Harvesting of the 1999 main "long rains" cereal crops is
nearing completion in the main growing areas of the Rift
Valley. Significant output reductions are reported for the
Eastern, Central, Western and Nyanza Provinces due to
drought, inadequate agricultural input supply and armyworm
infestation in some parts. Prospects for the 1999/2000 "short
rains" cereal crops in the bi-modal areas of the Western,
Central and Eastern provinces, for harvest in February/March,
are also unfavourable due to drought conditions. Preliminary
official estimates indicate a maize output of about 2.1
million tonnes compared to 2.44 million tonnes last year and
2.5 million tonnes average over the previous five years.
Cereal stocks at the National Cereals and Produce Board
(NCPB) were under 34 000 tonnes as of end September, against
a target reserve requirement of 270 000 tonnes. The
Government plans procurement of about 90 000 tonnes at the
peak of the harvest period in November and December, leaving
a significant deficit to be made up by imports. The food
supply situation is critical in the northern and north-
eastern pastoral districts, particularly in Turkana District,
where rainfall from the long rains season has been too
erratic and insufficient for adequate pasture and water
supplies. Severe food shortages are also reported in parts of
Central and Eastern provinces. The Government has recently
set up emergency co-ordinating committees and provided more
than 4 000 tonnes of relief food to vulnerable households in
Eastern Province and the pastoral districts. More food
assistance is needed for the affected population.
Planting of the 2000 A season crops, which normally takes
place from mid-September to mid-October, has been delayed by
a prolonged dry spell during October, particularly in eastern
and southern parts. The dry weather also adversely affected
crops planted in September with early rains. Abundant
precipitation in the first week of November may have arrived
too late to avoid reductions in the area planted and yields.
A Ministry of Agriculture/International Agencies Mission is
currently in the field assessing the crop prospects.
Despite a relatively stable overall food supply situation,
severe food shortages are reported in the north-east
prefecture of Umutara, particularly in the Kahi commune, as
well as in parts of Gikongoro, Kigali-rural, Byumba and
Butare. the Government has asked for international assistance
for the affected population.
The food supply situation in southern Somalia gives serious
cause for concern following an upsurge in inter-clan fighting
which has disrupted food production activities and assistance
to war and drought victims. Mounting civilian casualties,
destruction of property and large-scale population
displacements are reported. A number of starvation-related
deaths have also been reported. The food crisis has been
exacerbated by the extension of roadblocks and obstruction of
runways that are hindering the movement of goods and food
commodities, including food aid. Latest reports indicate that
nearly 1.6 million people in Mogadishu, Lower and Middle
Juba, parts of Gedo and Lower Shabelle are not accessible to
humanitarian agencies. The escalation of violence against
humanitarian workers has further reduced the flow and
distribution of humanitarian assistance.
An FAO/WFP Mission which visited the country last August
found that the 1999 Gu cereal production, estimated at about
135 683 tonnes, is about 32 percent below the post-war (1993-
1998) average due to low and poorly distributed rains,
uncontrolled crop pests and farmers' displacement. Prospects
for the "Deyr" secondary season, which runs from October to
January, in the agriculturally important regions of southern
Somalia, are not promising, with below-normal rains received
so far. Even assuming a post-war average Deyr harvest of
70 000 tonnes, the Mission estimated the deficit in 1999/2000
marketing year (August/July) at 310 000 tonnes.
Elsewhere in Somalia, despite recent beneficial rains, which
improved pasture conditions, the food situation remains
precarious for a large segment of the population due to the
cumulative effects of droughts. In north-eastern Somalia
(Puntland), an estimated 50 000 displaced and vulnerable
people are in need of urgent food assistance, while in north-
western Somalia (Somaliland), acute food insecurity is
concentrated among the poor pastoralists of Sool and
Toghdeer, estimated at 40 000 to 60 000 people.
For the 1999/2000 marketing year (August/July) total food aid
requirements were estimated by the Mission at about 70 000
tonnes. However, with the recent escalation of the civil
conflict and uncertain "Deyr" season, the amount of food
assistance required can only increase. Where conditions
allow, aid agencies are providing emergency assistance, but
more funds are needed to cover the food needs until,
hopefully, the next main harvest in August 2000. WFP
distributed close to 2 200 tonnes of food during the month of
September, mostly in southern Somalia bringing the total
distributed from January to September 1999 to 16 870 tonnes.
At the beginning of this year, the UN launched a Consolidated
Inter-Agency Appeal for Somalia, for a total is US$64
million; as of mid-October, donor contributions amounted to
around US$35 million, or 55 percent. The CAP for the year
2000 has just been launched, totalling US$ 50.6 million. The
international donor community is urged to be more generous in
their contributions; otherwise the increasingly desperate
population will face starvation.
A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to
southern Sudan indicated an overall increase in cereal
production in the traditional sector compared to last year,
due to improved security conditions, well-distributed rains
and a relatively pest-free season. However, a sharp decline
in sorghum production and a major shift to cash crops, mainly
sesame, is observed in the mechanised sector, following last
year�s record sorghum harvest and the attendant low prices.
Localised crop failures were also observed in some areas,
particularly northern Bahr el Ghazal and Unity states.
In central and northern Sudan, harvesting of the 1999 main
season cereal crops is underway. Despite severe floods that
caused heavy crop and property damages, overall harvest
prospects are favourable. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply
Assessment Mission is planned to visit the northern parts of
the country from end-November to appraise the 1999 main
season cereal production and estimate overall commercial
imports/exports and food aid requirements in 2000.
In anticipation of the good harvest and reflecting high
levels of carryover stocks, prices of sorghum remain at very
low levels.
WFP delivered about 8 200 tonnes of food aid to southern
areas in July, against a target of 9 500 tonnes, a 38 percent
increase on June deliveries.
Planting of the 2000 main season cereal crops in the unimodal
central and southern areas, as well as that of 1999/2000
short ("Vuli" ) crops in bi-modal northern areas, are
underway. Generally below-normal rains in October have caused
moisture stress, particularly for earlier planted crops.
The 1999 cereal crop, mainly maize, is estimated at 3.8
million tonnes, about 11 percent below last year's output due
to erratic rains, reduced use of inputs and an outbreak of
armyworms. By contrast, production of other food crops,
including beans, potatoes, cassava and plantains have
increased by nearly 13 percent to 3.3 million tonnes. As a
result of the reduced production, the domestic cereal supply
gap in 1999/2000 is currently forecast at nearly 190 000
tonnes. In addition to substitution with non-cereal
foodcrops, much of the deficit is expected to be covered by
commercial imports. However, food assistance is required for
nearly 1.2 million people, mainly in the regions of Dodoma,
Mara, Shinyanga, Singida, Tabora, Tanga and southern Mwanza,
all of which have now suffered their third consecutive poor
harvest. WFP has extended its current Emergency Operation in
selected central, lake and coast regions until the end of
1999.
Food prices in most markets, particularly for beans and
potatoes, have declined with the increased availability.
A prolonged drought experienced in various parts of the
country has affected the 1999 main season crops and brought a
near total failure of crops in some areas. About 700 000
people in at least 28 districts are reported to be facing
severe food shortages. The western and south-western counties
of Nyabushozi, Kashari and Ibanda in Mbarara, and Ruhinda and
Ruhaama in Bushenyi and Ntungamo respectively, are among the
hardest hit areas, but the agro-pastoral north-eastern
Districts of Moroto and Kotido are particularly vulnerable as
the flow of foodstuffs, including food aid, is restricted due
to insecurity. International food aid is being provided for
more than 400 000 displaced people by persistent insurgency
in northern parts of the country.
Prospects for the 1999 second season food crops, to be
harvested from next January, have improved with abundant
rains in October, except in some areas of Mbarara, Rakai and
Apac districts.
Government advances against rebels in central and northern
areas have resulted in fresh waves of displaced people
escaping from the fighting. Planting of the 1999/2000 cereal
crops is underway. Prospects are uncertain. Persistent
insecurity and constant movements of population, coupled with
dry weather in October in central and southern parts, have
adversely affected field operations.
The food supply situation remains extremely serious. Severe
nutrition problems among the displaced population continue to
be reported from several parts, including Matalala, Kuito,
Huambo and Malange. Despite the Government's capture of
Bailundo and Andulo, insecurity and land mines continue to
prevent access of humanitarian workers to these and other
formerly besieged cities, which also remain isolated from
commercial traffic. Prices of food have increased sharply in
the provincial capitals, resulting in increased food
difficulties for the resident population.
The Government has launched a programme to relocate two
million displaced people in agricultural areas and has
appealed for international assistance to support the
programme.
Normal rains in October in southern growing areas facilitated
land preparation for planting of coarse grains, mainly
sorghum, about to start. However more precipitation is needed
in several parts where rains have been erratic.
The 1999 coarse grains output was estimated at 19 000 tonnes,
almost twice the extremely poor level of the previous year,
but half the average of the past five years. Production was
adversely affected by a prolonged dry spell. However, the
country�s consumption needs are mainly met by imports. Cereal
import requirement in marketing year 1999/2000 (April/March)
are estimated at 250 000 tonnes, including 185 000 tonnes of
coarse grains and 65 000 tonnes of wheat. All imports will be
covered on commercial basis.
Harvesting of the 1999 wheat crop has started. The outlook is
satisfactory. However, the forecast production of 30 000
tonnes may not be reached due to a dry spell early in the
season that is likely to have reduced plantings and yields.
Abundant rains in the third dekad of September allowed land
preparation for planting of the 1999/2000 coarse grains.
However, erratic rains in October have delayed sowing in
parts. More rains are needed to prevent declines in the area
planted.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. The 1999
coarse grain production increased 21 percent from the reduced
crop of the previous year, to 182 000 tonnes. However, maize
output covers less than half the domestic consumption and
imports in marketing year 1999/2000 are estimated at 155 000
tonnes, most of which will be covered commercially.
Planting of the 1999/2000 paddy and maize crops is about to
start. Soil moisture is adequate reflecting normal rain in
the past month. According to official reports, migratory
locusts are forming in central and south-western areas.
Breeding is expected to start with the onset of the rainy
season and FAO will be carefully monitoring the situation in
the coming months.
The 1999 paddy output, harvested until June, was estimated at
a good level of 2.6 million tonnes, an increase of 8 percent
over the previous year�s reduced output. Abundant rains
during the growing season, coupled with absence of pests and
cyclones, favoured this year's rice production.
Reflecting the good paddy harvest, the overall food supply
situation is stable and has markedly improved in vulnerable
areas of the South.
Normal weather conditions in October have facilitated land
preparation for planting of the 1999/2000 maize crop about to
start. Distribution of agricultural inputs by the Government,
which boosted production last year, is again underway.
The 1999 maize production increased sharply from the previous
year. Final official estimates indicate a record output of
2.5 million tonnes. As a result, the food supply situation
has improved substantially. Markets are well supplied and
real prices of maize are below their levels of a year ago.
After replenishing the Security Grain Reserve, the country
has an exportable surplus in marketing year 1999/2000
(April/March) estimated at 400 000 tonnes.
Planting of the 1999/2000 coarse grain crops has started
following normal precipitation in October.
Cereal production in 1999 increased for the fifth year in
succession, to 1.7 million tonnes. Maize exportable surplus
in marketing year 1999/2000 (April/March) is estimated at
150 000 tonnes. Import requirements of wheat and rice are
estimated at 175 000 tonnes and 150 000 respectively, which
are expected to be covered mostly on commercial basis. As a
result of this year's bumper crop, the food supply situation
is satisfactory and markets are well supplied. In areas that
suffered crop losses due to floods early in the season, a
second crop has been obtained after water receded and the
food security situation has improved. Pastures and livestock
are also reported in good condition throughout the country.
Land preparation for planting of the 1999/2000 crops has
started in northern areas. Weather conditions are normal so
far. The recently harvested wheat crop is estimated at an
average level of 5 000 tonnes.
The 1999 coarse grains production was estimated at 70 000
tonnes, substantially higher than last year but below
average. However, the food supply situation is stable,
reflecting the country's import capacity. Cereal import
requirements in marketing year 1999/2000 (April/March) are
estimated at 126 000 tonnes.
Harvesting of the 1999 wheat crop is underway. Prospects are
poor. Latest forecasts point to a crop of 1.58 million
tonnes, 7 percent lower than the revised production figure of
last year and below average. This reflects mainly reduced
plantings
Planting of the 1999/2000 coarse grains has started. More
rains are needed following erratic precipitation in late
October/early November.
Final estimates of the 1999 maize harvest indicate an output
of 7.4 million tonnes, almost unchanged from 1998 and well
below the average of the past five years. The crop was
affected by excessive precipitation early in the season,
which were followed by prolonged dry weather. After two
consecutive poor maize harvests, the country's exportable
surpluses in marketing year 1999/2000 (April/March) has been
sharply reduced.
Abundant rains in the third dekad of September allowed land
preparation for planting of the 1999/2000 maize crop.
However, subsequent dry weather in October has delayed field
operations. More rains are urgently needed to avoid
reductions in the area planted.
The food supply situation is stable. The 1999 maize harvest
was estimated at 113 000 tonnes, well below last year's
bumper crop, but was average. Despite an increase in
plantings, excessive rains followed by a dry spell negatively
affected the crop. Import requirement for maize in marketing
year 1999/2000 is estimated at 24 000 tonnes. The country has
a structural deficit in wheat and rice of 48 000 tonnes. All
imports are anticipated to be covered commercially.
Harvesting of the irrigated 1999 wheat crop is almost
completed. The output is forecast at 99 000 tonnes, a
substantial increase on last year's level of 71 000 tonnes,
reflecting increased sowings. Planting of the 1999/2000 maize
crop has started. Availability of agricultural inputs, mainly
seeds and fertilizers, is reported to be adequate.
The 1999 maize production was estimated at 856 000 tonnes, a
marked recovery from the poor harvest of the previous year
but still below average. Import requirements in marketing
year 1999/2000 are estimated at 370 000 tonnes, to be covered
on commercial basis. The overall food supply is adequate at
this time of the year. Markets are well supplies with maize
and other staples such as Irish and sweet potatoes. Prices of
maize started their seasonal increase in September, but
remained at relatively low levels.
Harvest of the 1999 wheat crop is well advanced. Reflecting
an increase in the area planted, official forecasts point to
an output of 320 000 tonnes, a significant increase on last
year, also a record. However, unseasonable widespread rains
in the last week of October disrupted harvesting operations.
If they persist, they may result in crop and quality losses.
At the forecast level of production, only limited quantities
of imported wheat, to improve the flour quality, will be
necessary next year.
Rains in late October improved soil conditions for planting
of the 1999/2000 coarse grains, mainly maize, and favoured
the early planted crops.
The 1999 maize output was estimated at 1.52 million tonnes,
higher than the reduced crop of the previous year but well
below average. Production was adversely affected by excessive
rains during the season. Imports of maize in marketing
year1999/2000 (April/March) are estimated at 450 000 tonnes,
mostly on commercial basis. Commercial imports of 200 000
tonnes were reported by the end of October. The food supply
situation is tight in areas where a poor harvest was gathered
and in urban areas due to sharply increased food prices and
record levels of inflation.
Land preparation for the 1999/2000 winter grains has started.
Planting may be hampered in the northern provinces, due
mainly to upsurge in fighting. As the eight northern
provinces together comprise some 40 percent of the country's
irrigated cereal and about 53 percent of its rainfed area, a
decline of the 1999/2000 production is expected if security
conditions do not improve. Recent reports indicate that more
than 100 000 people have been displaced by the recent
escalation of factional fighting in the Shomali Plains. More
than 60 000 are believed to have arrived in the capital since
5 August. The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission
that visited the country last May/June estimated the 1999
total cereal production at 3.24 million tonnes (rice in paddy
equivalent), about 16 percent below the previous year's
bumper output of 3.86 million tonnes due to low level of
precipitation and outbreak of pests.
The food situation is tight for the displaced population. In
1999 food aid has been distributed to approximately more
60 000 vulnerable households in the central highlands and to
some 8 000 households in the north-eastern province of
Badakhshan. Vulnerable groups are being provided through
urban bakeries, institutional feeding programmes in
hospitals, orphanages and health centres, and through food-
for-work activities.
Total cereal import requirements in the 1999/2000 marketing
year (July/June) is estimated at a record 1.1 million tonnes,
of which more than 95 percent is wheat. Commercial imports of
cereals in 1999/2000 are forecast at 800 000 tonnes, about
one-third higher than last year due to increased private
sector activity, cash crop production and active cross-border
trade. Emergency food aid requirement (including food-for-
work and food-for-seed), estimated at 97 000 tonnes, is
already in the pipeline, leaving an uncovered 226 000 tonnes.
The 1999 grain harvest is forecast to fall to 270 000 tonnes
from 326 000 tonnes in 1998. The area sown to winter wheat
declined sharply reflecting mainly import competition from
cheaper Russian grain in the wake of the rouble devaluation
in 1998, as well as below normal autumn and winter
precipitation. Increased spring plantings were not sufficient
to compensate the reduced winter grain area and spring
conditions were not good in some areas. In 1999/2000 the
cereal import requirement is estimated to increase to nearly
400 000 tonnes. Against this requirement food aid pledges of
roughly 73 000 tonnes have been made. The balance is expected
to be imported commercially. However, mobilizing wheat from
neighbouring countries could be more difficult (and
expensive) in view of the poor harvests in Iran and Turkey.
The country achieved positive economic growth in 1998,
despite the adverse effect of the Russian financial crisis,
which reduced exports, expatriate employment opportunities
and remittances from abroad. Agricultural reform has resulted
in a large number of small private farms, operating at low
levels of productivity and facing major constraints in
marketing their produce beyond rural markets. Domestic
production and imports are covering the country's food needs,
and per capita consumption appears to be slowly recovering
from the low levels of the early nineties, but household
purchasing power remains low and nearly one half of the
population has officially reported incomes at or below the
poverty line. Higher wheat prices will affect this group
disproportionately. In total, 170 000 vulnerable people will
be covered by the WFP food assistance. WFP will continue to
provide relief food aid to 110 000 refugees and the most
vulnerable. Assistance will also focus on community based
food-for-work activities for 60 000 vulnerable people who are
able to work, supporting economic and social development. The
programme will have duration of three years and will be
reviewed annually.
Import competition from cheap Russian grain because of the
devaluation of the rouble in late 1998 resulted in below
average winter grain plantings for the 1999 harvest, but a
larger area devoted to fruit and vegetables. Dry autumn
weather and the persistent economic problems on farm
exacerbated the reduction in the area sown to grains.
Therefore, the 1999 grain harvest could decline by up to 16
percent to an estimated 900 000 tonnes. Official data
collection tends to underestimate production by a margin of
about 20 percent. At the household level, lower grain
production is being offset by a sharp increase in potatoes
and by increased production of livestock products.
Land privatization is in progress but the availability of
credit for newly established farmers remains a major problem.
The actual level of cereal (and other food imports) is
difficult to ascertain as substantial quantities are imported
via Dagestan. Indications are that annual cereal imports are
of the order of 550 000-600 000 tonnes per annum in recent
years. In 1999/2000, the cereal import requirement could rise
to almost 700 000 tonnes, to offset the lower output. The
bulk of this will be covered commercially although the
vulnerable groups, including the refugees, will continue to
need targeted food assistance. WFP continues its support to
485 000 beneficiaries through Protracted Relief and Recovery
Operation which started from July 1999 after the termination
of emergency operation. This operation is for a period of
three years with a total of 47 880 tonnes of food aid. The
current programme supports IDPs with supplementary
assistance, relief support to socially vulnerable groups,
resettlement of refugees/returnees and recovery through food-
for-work and food-for-training.
Notwithstanding some localised flooding in the north and
central regions in September, monsoon rainfall so far this
year has been normal/above normal and generally favourable
for development of the main aman rice crop currently being
harvested. In the period 1 June to 11 October, of the 13
rainfall stations monitored, none had below-normal rainfall
compared to two in 1998. Overall, the 1999/2000 production
target is 9.5 million tonnes, and that for the aus and boro
crops 1.8 and 9.2 million tonnes respectively. Total milled
rice production is therefore tentatively projected at 20.5
million tonnes, though the final outcome will depend on
weather next year and input supplies. In addition, the
production target for next year's wheat crop has been set at
1.9 million tonnes similar to output in 1999.
Rice imports for 1999 (calendar year) are estimated at 1.8
million tonnes. The overall food supply situation is
satisfactory. Government stocks at the end of September stood
at around 1.4 million tonnes, comprising 830 000 tonnes of
rice and 561 000 tonnes of wheat.
Torrential rains resulted in widespread flooding, principally
around the capital Phnom Penh in late October/early November,
when 150 mm of rainfall was received instead of 30 mm in
normal years. The worst affected areas were around Pursat,
Battambang, Kg.Speu, Takeo and Kandal. Although thousands of
people had to abandon homes, no serious casualties have been
reported so far. The full extent of damage to the main rice
crop, to be harvested shortly, is yet to be determined,
though unconfirmed reports indicate that around 2 000
hectares had been affected. Risks of further rainfall and
flooding still remain relatively high. The overall food
situation, however, remains satisfactory, following a good
early rice crop and generally favourable prospects for the
main wet season crop, to be harvested from January.
Rice accounts for some 84 percent of annual food crop
production and is planted on around 90 percent of cropped
area, mainly in the Central Mekong Basin and Delta and the
Tonle Sap Plain. In recent years after the end of hostilities
rice production has been increasing. Aggregate 1998/99 paddy
production was around 3.52 million tonnes, some 3 percent
above 1997/98 production and 19 percent above the five year
average. The target for 1999/00 is between 3.5-4.0 million
tonnes. Before the recent floods, a good rainy season rice
crop was in prospect, suggesting that there may have been an
exportable surplus in parts.
Although the overall food situation remains satisfactory, a
sizeable section of the population remains vulnerable to food
shortages, which this year may be exacerbated by the recent
floods. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply mission, earlier
assessed that some 40 000 tonnes of rice in food assistance
(through a WFP Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation)
would be needed to meet the needs of the most vulnerable, in
addition to varying amounts of fish and vegetable oil.
Seasonably dry weather favoured harvesting of summer crops
and planting of winter wheat. Cool weather early in the
season, followed by drought and high temperatures
subsequently affected maize production in several provinces
in the north. This year although planted area was similar to
last year, growing conditions were worse and output is likely
to be lower than 1998. Abundant and above-average rainfall in
the main producing areas in the north-east and north west, in
October replenished soil moisture levels and was generally
favourable for winter wheat planting, now near completion.
However, the rains did not ease earlier drought conditions in
the northern provinces of Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Ningxia,
which may affect the winter crop somewhat. Winter wheat
accounts for more than 80 percent of total wheat production.
Overall, due to a lower autumn harvest, 1999 grain output is
officially expected to be lower than the 490 million tonnes
(including roots and tubers) produced last year.
In the first nine months of 1999 official estimates indicate
that some 2.11 million tonnes of maize was exported around 40
percent lower that in the same period in 1998.
Sowing of the 2000 wheat and barley crops is underway.
Aggregate output from the wheat and barley crops in 1999 is
estimated at 106 000 tonnes, some 63 percent above last
year's reduced output but 6 percent lower than the average
for the previous five years.
Imports of wheat in 1999/2000 (May/April) are forecast at
100 000 tonnes, while aggregate imports of barley and maize
are forecast at some 540 000 tonnes, unchanged from last
year.
Contrary to earlier reports, the country has harvested
280 000 tonnes of wheat, some 80 000 tonnes more than in 1998
and is expected to harvest about 550 000 tonnes of maize.
Consequently the 1999 aggregate grain harvest (including also
barley, oats, pulses etc) is estimated at 880 000 tonnes, 10
percent above that of 1998.
Information on the level of annual utilisation of cereals is
conflicting. The existence of sizeable unregistered flows of
cereals (particularly wheat and flour) into the country and
the transhipment to other neighbouring countries make
analysis difficult. Estimates of the utilization of wheat
range from 650 000 to 800 000 tonnes per annum. Registered
imports in 1998/99 amounted to 114 000 tonnes from other CIS
countries (59 000 tonnes from the Russian Federation and
55 000 tonnes from Ukraine).
FAO estimates the annual domestic utilization of wheat (for
all uses) of nearly 800 000 tonnes and an aggregate cereal
utilization of about 1.35 million tonnes of cereals,
including nearly 750 000 tonnes for human consumption and
some 500 000-600 000 tonnes for feed and other uses. Given
this assumption, the cereal import requirement in 1999/2000
is tentatively estimated by FAO at 0.5 million tonnes. This
is less than last year in response to the larger output, the
increased difficulty in mobilizing grain in neighbouring
Turkey, given the poor harvest and the restrictions (insofar
as they can be implemented) on exports from the Russian
Federation, should this country receive food aid and/or close
the border. Against this requirement, food aid pledges
amounting to 78 000 tonnes have been reported to date. Most
of the balance is expected to be imported commercially.
WFP has planned to provide 18 190 tonnes of food aid to
182 000 vulnerable people and targeted food-for-work schemes
over a one-year period, which commenced in July 1999 with a
new phase of the protracted relief and recovery operation.
The emphasis in the new phase for recovery strategy is to
increase the overall level of self-sufficiency through
rehabilitation. The programme also provides assistance to the
vulnerable people to meet their food needs under the current
conditions of decreasing purchasing power.
On 29 October, the worst cyclone in almost 30 years, struck
coastal areas along the North Eastern state of Orissa,
leaving up to two million people homeless. The worst affected
districts included; Balasore, Cuttack, Ganjam, Jagatsinghpur,
Jajpur and Kendrapara. An estimated 11 million people, almost
a third of the state's population, were affected and current
official estimates put the number killed at about 10 000. The
number of deaths, however, could rise further as large
numbers of people remain unaccounted for. Many of the
displaced people are marooned and have no access to food and
clean water, whilst the health and nutritional situation is
deteriorating fast due to outbreaks of gastro-enteritis and
cholera.
The state of Orissa has an estimated population of around 36
million people and a cropped area of approximately 5.4
million hectares, or around 4 percent of national total. It
is a food deficit state, with a relatively large rural
population (60 percent) relying primarily on low productivity
subsistence agriculture. Only 25 percent of cultivated area
is irrigated, compared to an average of 40 percent
nationally, whilst fertiliser use is significantly lower than
levels applied in other states. Only 25 to 30 kg/ha of
nutrients (NPK) are used, compared to an average of 75 kg/ha.
Agricultural productivity, therefore remains low, with
average yields of rice (the main staple) up to 40 percent
lower than average for the country as a whole. Given the
state of agriculture and the level of poverty in the state,
household food security, would have depended heavily on the
main rice harvest, to have commenced in a few weeks, and
stored grain. Current official estimates indicate that the
rice harvest in the State will be around 3.5 million tonnes
compared to an expected output of 6.5 million tonnes before
the cyclone. These losses will have serious repercussions not
only on immediate food security but also for food supplies
over the greater part of next year. This is especially so as
rabi (winter) production, mainly of wheat, from Oct/Nov till
March/April is negligible in the state. In addition to farm
households, those that lost their entire source of
livelihood, such as fishermen, will also face severe hardship
in the coming months. In view of significant crop losses in
the State, aggregate Kharif rice production will be around 3
million tonnes lower than the 75 million tonnes expected
before the floods.
Notwithstanding strenuous government efforts to provide
assistance , the scale of the devastation was so large that
over a week after the cyclone, hundreds of villages still
remain isolated from urgently needed food and medical
supplies, depending entirely on food air drops. In response
to the emergency, the Government has so far provided US $130
million in cash assistance, in addition to the US $59.5
million provided in the aftermath of the earlier cyclone in
mid-October. Food assistance is being transported to affected
areas by road and sea, whilst 395 tonnes have been air-
dropped. Relief assistance is also being provided in the form
of hospital care, shelter, medical supplies and
communications equipment.
Scattered heavy rainfall in October increased moisture
supplies for main season rice transplanting in main producing
areas. Main season rice is planted in October/November to
coincide with rains from the north east monsoon, for harvest
from March onwards. In contrast to 1998, and the currency
crisis, fertilizer supplies have increased and prices have
stabilized, due to greater competition following
liberalisation last year. Consequently, the official forecast
for paddy production this year, has been increased marginally
to 49.53 million tonnes, from 11.6 million hectares. Output
at this level would be average and similar to last year.
Private sector imports have been severely limited by a recent
Government limiting importers to imports of 5 percent broken
or higher quality only. The policy is to protect domestic
producers from lower international rice prices. In the period
January-September 1999, imports from the National Logistics
Agency (BULOG) amounted to 1.9 million tonnes. 1999 maize
production is estimated at 9.13 million tonnes, almost 10
percent lower than last year. In general with economic
recovery and higher demand for maize feed, production is
likely to increase to meet demand. Wet season maize will be
planted in Oct/Nov for harvest around March/April.
The humanitarian and food situation in East Timor, remains
precarious, though the security situation is reported to be
improving. An estimated 219 000 registered refugees are still
in West Timor, of which 70 percent are expected to return. A
large proportion of the population still remain internally
displaced some in difficult locations with little food and
water. The UN recently made a consolidated appeal for US $199
million for humanitarian assistance to cover immediate
humanitarian needs during the reconstruction phase of the
province and its economy. In addition to concerns regarding
food and water, the start of the rainy season has also
increased the risk of health problems and diseases, such as
cholera and malaria. October/November are normally the period
for rice and maize planting to coincide with the start of the
monsoon. To assess early crop prospects and the overall food
supply situation, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment
Mission is planned for late November.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (2 November)
Winter wheat and barley planting are near completion for
harvest in June/July and March next year respectively. 1999
agricultural production was severely affected by drought,
which followed a lack of rain since last December and reduced
snow over winter. Both rainfed and irrigated production
declined sharply as did output of livestock. The output of
wheat, the main staple, fell by almost a quarter to 9 million
tonnes. As a result the decline in domestic output, to cover
demand wheat imports in the 1999/2000 marketing year
(July/June) are expected to increase sharply over the
previous year and are currently projected at 5.8 million
tonnes. Rice production was also affected by floods in July
in Mazandaran, which damaged an estimated 3 600 hectares of
crops. As a result of the drought and floods, milled rice
production declined to 1.45 million tonnes, some 17 percent
lower than the previous year. Rice imports are projected at
900 000 tonnes for the current (calendar) year.
Planting of the winter crops, which normally starts in the
second half of October, is delayed due to inadequate rainfall
so far. Production is also likely to be constrained by the
serious shortages of essential agricultural inputs. Last
year, in addition to the shortage of agricultural inputs, a
severe drought and the widespread incidence of pests and
weeds adversely affected cereal crops. Total cereal output in
1999 is estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, nearly 40 percent
below the previous five-year average. The drought has also
caused serious damage to livestock, already weakened by foot
and mouth disease.
In October 1999, the UN Security council approved an increase
in the current sixth phase of the "Oil-for-food" deal to
US$8.3 billion worth of oil, from the US$5.26 billion
announced at the beginning of the phase in May, to buy food,
medicine and health supplies, and for emergency repairs to
infrastructure. Despite some improvement in the overall food
supply situation following the implementation of the "Oil for
food" deal, however, health and nutritional problems remain
widespread in many parts. A recent survey conducted by UNICEF
found that child mortality rates have more than doubled in
south and central Iraq since 1990.
Planting of the year 2000 wheat and barley crops, to be
harvested during April/May next year, is underway. Production
of the wheat crop in 1999 was estimated at 152 000 tonnes,
about 10 percent below last year, due to the severe drought
that affected several countries in the Near East. Imports of
cereals in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at some 2.5
million tonnes.
In September and October, tropical storms brought heavy
rainfall, resulting in localised flooding and some crop
damage to the rice crop, particularly around in the south
around Kyushu. As a result the Ministry of Agriculture
lowered its forecast for rice production from its projection
in September. Official forecast indicates that 1999 rice
production, (brown basis) will be around 9.18 million tonnes,
some 3 percent above last year.
The government proposes to provide subsidies to farmers to
grow wheat, soybeans and feed grains to improve self-
sufficiency in these crops and promote a shift from rice. In
addition farmers will be paid compensation for reducing rice
cultivation.
Sowing of the 2000 wheat and barley crops, for harvest in
May/June next year, is underway. Last year, a severe drought
seriously damaged cereal and horticultural crops.
Consequently, aggregate output of wheat and barley declined
by 88 percent in 1999 to 13 000 tonnes. The livestock sector
was also affected and many sheep farms were seriously
affected as costs increased and products diminished in
quality and quantity. An outbreak of foot and mouth disease
has exacerbated drought-induced production losses.
The FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that
visited the country last May estimated the total cereal
import requirement at 1.94 million tonnes for the 1999/2000
marketing year (July/June). About 80 percent of the
requirement is anticipated to be covered commercially,
leaving a deficit of 387 000 tonnes to be covered by food
aid. Some 300 000 tonnes have so far been pledged through
direct food aid and concessional grants. An Emergency
Operation was jointly approved by FAO and WFP in July for
food assistance to 180 000 vulnerable people, worth some
US$429 000 for a period of nine months.
With harvesting completed, the 1999 grain crop is officially
estimated at 15.9 million tonnes, about 14.4 million tonnes
cleaned weight, i.e. more than double the poor 1998 harvest
officially put at 6.4 million tonnes. Overall growing
conditions for the 1999 crop have been satisfactory and
average yields approaching 1.3 tonnes per hectare are more
than double last year's. In addition, unusually good weather
during the harvest season has permitted harvesting activities
to continue well into October, permitting the bulk of the
11.9 million hectares sown to be harvested.
The country exported 2.5 million tonnes of cereals in 1998/99
and has an export availability of 7-8 million tonnes in the
current marketing year. Grain shipments from the port of
Aktau have been resumed.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (2 November)
Late season rains in October, affected rice harvesting
somewhat. The official estimate for 1999 rice production is
put at around 5.2 million tonnes, which is about average and
slightly higher than last year. Production this year was
adversely affected by damage from heavy rains and typhoons
since during the monsoon season from July. In particular
typhoon Anne and Bart caused significant rice damage in south-
eastern provinces in late September. The 1999 rice
procurement target is one million tonnes.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (3
November)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission, which
visited the country from 9 to 19 October, noted that food
supply prospects will remain precarious over the next 12
months despite some improvement in rice production this year.
The increase in rice was principally due to increased
fertilizer use, adequate irrigation supplies and the absence
of serious pest and disease attacks. Although fertilizer
availability (NPK) almost doubled this year, to around
199 000 tonnes (nutrient equivalent) compared to 1998,
supplies covered less than one third of requirements to
attain optimum yields and maintain basic soil productivity.
In addition, heavy nutrient mining, where more nutrients are
being extracted from the soil than replaced, and the growing
importance of double cropping in enhancing food security,
mean that overall requirements of fertilizers are likely to
be considerably higher than hitherto.
The gains in rice production, however, were more than offset
by the reduction in maize output as the area cultivated fell
sharply, due to substitution and increased national emphasis
on potatoes, restriction of maize cultivation on hill slopes
to control degradation and a prolonged dry spell at critical
stages in the crop cycle. The weather pattern in 1999 was
erratic. Following a slow start to the season, rainfall at
important stages of maize development from May to July was
well below normal, which seriously affected yields.
Overall, therefore, paddy production is put at 2.34 million
tonnes, around 14 percent or 280 000 tonnes higher than
estimated production in 1998, whilst maize production is
estimated to have fallen by almost 30 percent from the 1.76
million tonnes estimated by FAO/WFP in 1998 to 1.24 million
tonnes this year. In addition to rice and maize, food supply
prospects in 1999/2000 will also depend heavily on the output
of next year's potato and double crop barley and wheat crops.
Although only a tentative forecast at this stage, based on
target areas, production of these crops is forecast at 1.813
million tonnes of potato (453 000 tonnes cereal equivalent)
and 241 000 tonnes of wheat and barley. In grain equivalent
including milled rice and other minor cereal crops, such as
sorghum and millets, overall domestic grain availability for
the next marketing year is forecast at 3.472 million tonnes.
Based on revised population figures provided by the
Government, grain demand for food and other utilization needs
for 1999/2000 is estimated at 4.76 million tonnes. This
leaves a deficit of around 1.29 million tonnes, of which the
Government is expected to import 300 000 tonnes commercially,
whilst a further 126 000 tonnes is covered by pipeline food
aid imports. Taking these into account, the uncovered import
requirement, therefore, is estimated at 867 000 tonnes, with
which the country still needs assistance. In addition,
although sizeable contribution were made over the last year
to rehabilitate agriculture, to ensure food security, much
more is needed. In particular, contributions to the
Agricultural Recovery and Environmental Protection Programme
(AREP), jointly prepared by the Government and the UN have so
far been disappointing and need to be enhanced.
The 1999 grain and pulse harvest is forecast at 1.6 million
tonnes, marginally less than output in 1998 in response to
the declining trend in the area sown and some damage to crops
by rain and hail. Provided the 1999 harvest forecast
materialises, cereal imports, including food aid pledges
amounting to 61 000 tonnes, in 1999/2000 are provisionally
estimated at about 126 000 tonnes, mainly wheat. At the same
time the country also exports some wheat to neighbouring
Uzbekistan (in payment for gas) and Tajikistan.
About half of the population is estimated to live below the
poverty line and 15 percent to live in extreme poverty. The
payment of social benefits in 1998 was on average delayed by
more than 80 days. In the absence of money, pensions and
other benefits are mainly paid in kind, notably in flour, oil
and sugar. The Araket poverty alleviation programme,
introduced in 1998 seeks to improve the quality of life for
the poorest segments through the provision of goods (food,
fuel) and more recently micro-credit schemes. Official data
indicate that per caput consumption of basic foodstuffs is
recovering steadily. However, the availability of cash
remains a major constraint, which is felt particularly in the
health and education sectors.
Heavy rains in October in parts affected main crop rice
maturation, harvesting of which is underway. Main season
production is currently estimated at around 1.3 million
tonnes, with overall 1999/2000 production forecast at 1.77
million tonnes. Around 73 percent of aggregate production
will come from the main (rainy season) crop and around 15
percent from irrigated cultivation in the dry season. The
rest is from upland rice.
The planting of the wheat and barley crops is underway.
However, domestic cereal production usually covers only about
10 percent of the consumption requirements. Aggregate
production of wheat and barley crops in 1999 is estimated at
62 000 tonnes, about the same as last year. Imports of wheat
in 1999/2000 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.51 million
tonnes, slightly above last year.
Paddy production this year is estimated at an average 2
million tonnes. The country is a regular importer of whit
milled rice, and is likely to increase imports of more paddy
and brown rice for domestic milling to increase value-added
milling to cater for rising demand for higher-quality rice.
The country is approximately 60-65 percent self-sufficient in
rice. It produces about 1.2 million tonnes of rice compared
to annual consumption of 1.7 to 1.8 million tonnes.
To promote agricultural development in the country, the
Government proposes to introduce a number of policy
initiatives to promote research, technology transfer and use
of new machinery.
In addition to reforms in the agriculture sector, which have
meant that former state farms have been disbanded and sold,
problems of economic transition continue to constrain
supplies of essential inputs to agriculture. 1999 production
of the main staple, wheat, was further disrupted by high
temperatures and drought, over a two week period, in July.
Wheat production is therefore put at around 190 000 tonnes,
similar to last year's reduced crop. Compared to 1990, before
the transition programme from a centrally planned to a market
economy, domestic wheat production this year would be less
than half, around 42 percent. In addition there may be
shortage of seed for next year's planting. Areas planted this
year included 273 300 hectares of wheat, 8 300 hectares of
potatoes, 5 500 hectares of other vegetables. An estimated 40
percent of annual demand for wheat is domestically met and
the rest imported. Around 60 000 tonnes of food aid were
pledged to the country this year as assistance to vulnerable
groups.
Harvesting of the main, monsoon, rice crop has commenced. The
forecast for 1999/2000 paddy production is 17.5 million
tonnes, from an aggregate area of around 5.5 million
hectares. A total of 38 700 tonnes of rice were exported in
the first half of 1999, almost double the volume exported in
the same period last year. To meet increasing domestic demand
for rice, the overall potential for increasing exports
remains constrained. To encourage production the Government,
is promoting the private sector by leasing over 400 000
hectares of vacant and new lands.
Paddy production this year is projected at 3.6 million
tonnes, slightly above last year and the five year average.
The area under paddy is also estimated to have increased
marginally to 1.5 million hectares.
Seasonably dry conditions, favoured maturing summer crops and
facilitated preparations for rabi wheat planting. The
estimate of 1999 rice production has been increased slightly
from earlier projections due to an increase in area and
improved weather. Production is put at 4.87 million tonnes
(milled), some 3 percent higher than last year and 17 percent
above the five year average. The wheat production target for
1999/2000 has been set at 20 million tonnes, some 10 percent
higher than production this year. The area target is 20.9
million hectares compared to 20.5 million hectares last year.
Reports indicated, however, that the target may not be
achieved due to lower support prices than expected and
relatively high input costs. Imports for the 1999/2000
marketing year (July/June) are projected at 3.2 million
tonnes.
Heavy rains in late October, affected the maturing (main)
rice crop somewhat. Main rice is mainly planted around
May/June for harvest in Oct/Nov. The procurement price of
paddy has been increased to support local farmers who
experienced difficulty due to excessive rains this year,
attributed partly to La Nina weather disturbances. The
increase in support price will be given to farmers selling
rice (with up to 24 percent moisture content).
Despite losses in parts to excessive rains and to typhoon
damage, rice production this year is expected to be
appreciably higher than in recent years. First and second
quarter production were also favourable and official reports
expect paddy output to be around 11.76 million metric tonnes
(7.64 million tonnes of milled rice) this (calendar) year.
This represents an almost 3 million tonne or 35 percent
increase over the 1998 calendar year. Improved rice prospects
mean that import demand will be much lower than last year.
The wheat crop for harvest in April/May next year is now
being planted. Production of wheat in 1999 is estimated at
1.5 million tonnes, about 17 percent below last year's
output. Low number of adult desert locusts are likely to be
present near Jizan where numbers could gradually increase as
a result of recent rainfall. Import of cereals in 1999/2000
(July/June) is currently forecast at about 6.9 million
tonnes, similar to last year.
Land preparation and planting of the main Maha rice crop to
coincide with the north east monsoon rains is underway. Above-
normal rainfall in September and October supplemented soil
moisture levels and was generally favourable for planting and
transplanting the crop. Output of the second yala rice crop,
harvested earlier in August/September, was put at 987 000
tonnes, around 8 percent higher than 1998. Total 1998/99
paddy production is estimated at 2.7 million tonnes (1.73
million tonnes from the 1998 maha crop and 0.987 million
tonnes from the 1999 yala)
Recent light showers in northern parts of the country
prompted planting of winter grains. However, lack of rains
and above-normal temperatures in the south have delayed
planting. Sowing of the 2000 wheat and barley crops is
expected to continue until mid-January next year. Crop and
livestock production in 1999 was seriously affected by the
worst drought in decades. As a result, barley production,
which is almost entirely rainfed, is estimated at 380 000
tonnes, around 72 percent below the previous five-year
average. Wheat production, 40 percent of which is irrigated,
is estimated at 2.74 million tonnes, about 28 percent below
average. The drought had also devastated range vegetation
leading to a significant increase in sheep mortality rates
that seriously affected household incomes and exposed a large
number of the Badia population to food shortages.
Domestic wheat requirements in 1999/2000 (July/June),
estimated at about 3.8 million tonnes, are anticipated to be
met from current production and existing stocks. However,
significant barley imports, estimated at around 1.18 million
tonnes, are needed to compensate for the loss of feed and
forage. In view of the country's economic slowdown,
Government imports are estimated at only 200 000 tonnes,
leaving an uncovered deficit of 980 000 tonnes. As part of an
emergency measure, private sector imports of barley have been
authorised this year, but with low purchasing power of
herders, only limited quantities are anticipated to be
imported.
On 7 October, an emergency operation was jointly approved by
FAO and WFP to assist 329 000 herders in the drought affected
areas of the country for six months (October 1999 to March
2000), for a total cost of US$ 5.46 million.
Latest reports confirm a reduced grain and pulse harvest in
1999 of about 430 000 tonnes (compared to 500 000 tonnes last
year) and a deteriorating food supply situation. Official
reports indicate that the area sown declined somewhat to
about 370 000 hectares. Lower yields than last year are due
to heavy rains in July which caused severe but localized
damage, heavy infestation of wheat with yellow rust and smut,
inadequate use of quality seed and other inputs and poor
irrigation. Given that about 150 000 hectares of the land
sown to grain is irrigated, official average yield
expectations seem too low, despite persistent economic
problems in the sector. Lack of resources available to the
national statistics office and the government's weak control
over large parts of the country limit the accuracy of
information on economic and agricultural activity. The
agricultural sector employs almost half of the labour force
but generates less than 30 percent of recorded GDP.
The shortfall in cereal production will have to be met by
food aid and commercial imports, the latter mainly from
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. In 1999/2000, the
cereal import requirement is estimated to increase to 453 000
tonnes of which up to 127 000 is likely to be provided as
food aid.
The overall food supply situation remains problematical, as
poverty is endemic in the country. About 85 percent of the
population have incomes below the poverty line and purchasing
power remains low. Not all families are able to cover a
shortfall in household food production by market purchases.
In rural areas, high leasing costs also restrict household
food availability. Recent assessments in the Karategin Valley
found that large segments of the population were food
insecure. Humanitarian assistance to vulnerable populations
will continue to be necessary.
In late October, heavy rains from tropical storms hampered
main season rice maturation and harvesting in central parts
of the country. Main season rice is planted from May to
June/July and harvested from October to December. Normally
the crop accounts for around 80 percent of aggregate
production the remainder coming from the second rice crop
planted in January/February. The current forecast for
1999/2000 paddy production is put at around 23 million
tonnes. This represents an increase of some 700 000 tonnes or
3 percent over 1998/99.
The export target for the year 2000 has been set at six
million tonnes compared to between 5.5-6.0 million tonnes
expected to be exported this year. To the end of September
approximately 4.7 million tonnes had been exported.
Sowing of the 2000 wheat crop is underway. The 1999 wheat
production is estimated at 18 million tonnes, about 14
percent below last year and about 4 percent below average,
due to the severe drought that affected several countries in
the region, including Turkey. Output from the barley crop
which is estimated at 7 million tonnes is 15 percent lower
than in previous year. maize production is estimated at 2.17
million tonnes, almost the same as in the previous year.
Two major earthquakes which struck the north-western parts of
the country on 17 August and on 12 November have killed more
than 16 000 people, caused more than 52 000 major injuries
and an estimated 630 00 homeless people. The earlier
earthquake, in around Izmit, have affected heavily populated
and mainly industrial areas, while the latter, in Bolu
province, struck less populated areas with more localised
damages. National and international assistance is being
provided to the victims.
Turkey's state grain board (TMO) bought from farmers in 1999
a total of 5.1 million tonnes of cereals, comprising 4.2
million tonnes of wheat and 818 000 tonnes of barley.
The 1999 grain harvest is officially estimated at a record
1.5 million tonnes, nearly 300 000 tonnes above 1998,
including 226 000 tonnes produced by private farmers. The
area sown to grains fell to 570 000 hectares but the import
of high quality seed and increased use of fertilizer raised
yields significantly. Given the difficult foreign exchange
situation and the large 1999 harvest, which would be adequate
to meet domestic requirements, cereal imports in 1999/2000
are expected to remain very low. The country has introduced
excise duties as of 1 October 1999 to protect domestic
production. These include duties of 50 percent on imports of
flour and pasta and of US$100 on exports of ammonium nitrate
fertilizer.
The outlook for the cotton harvest is also satisfactory and
the target of 1.3 million tonnes could be achieved. Some
550 000 hectares have been planted and yields average 2.4
tonnes per hectare so far.
The 1999 wheat and barley crop is officially estimated at 3.9
million tonnes, some 140 000 tonnes above 1998. As the
country also produces maize and rice, indications are that
total 1999 grain production could be around 4.4 million
tonnes. The rice production target is 500 000 tonnes, of
which 300 000 tonnes are to be sold to the government.
Imports of grain are being reduced to maintain a positive
trade balance. Cereal imports in 1999/2000 are estimated to
fall to about 350 000 tonnes, to be met commercially.
Heavy rains, over several days in late October/early
November, led to the worst flooding in decades in central
coastal areas. Current reports indicate that around 550
people were killed and over 600 000 displaced. In addition
damage to property and infrastructure is officially estimated
at around US $200 million. Several areas remain isolated by
flood waters, where concerns are mounting of food shortages.
Problems may be exacerbated by further rains and floods.
Although, civilian damage has been high, crop damage, was not
as serious as it may have been, as the areas affected were
not in the main food/rice basket of the country in the south
or the coffee and tea areas further north. The main crop
currently would have been the tenth month rice crop, which is
planted in June/July for harvest in October/November. In
normal years this rice crop nationally accounts for around 25
percent of aggregate annual production, whilst the
winter/spring crop (planted from January) accounts for the
largest share. The worst affected provinces were along a 500
kilometre stretch between Quang Binh to Quang Ngai, home to
some 6 million of the country's 79 million people. The area
is amongst the poorest in the country and is normally food
deficit as it is agriculturally and industrially less
developed than the rest of the country.
The approximate rice area along this stretch is estimated at
around 340 000 hectares of which approximately 64 000
hectares were reportedly damaged. In addition around 30 000
hectares of other crops were also affected and over 100 000
tonnes of rice and maize damaged in store. In recent years,
these provinces produced around 1.2 million tonnes of rice ,
or around 7 percent, compared to national production of
around 17 to 18 million tonnes. In addition, the affected
provinces produce around 25-30 thousand tonnes of maize or
less than 3 percent of aggregate production of around 1.2 to
1.3 million tonnes per year. Large quantities of rice and
maize in store were also damaged. Central coastal parts of
the country are regularly prone to bad weather and storms,
with a reported 397 people killed by storms and floods last
year.
The Government has responded quickly to the emergency by
distributing food assistance to affected areas, which are
amongst the poorest in the country and the most vulnerable to
food shortages. In spite of current humanitarian operations,
it is likely that food supply problems will persist into next
year, while significant intervention would also been needed
to rehabilitate agriculture.
The floods followed earlier damage by tropical Storm Eve,
which also resulted in several deaths and damage. Rice
production in 1999/2000 is tentatively projected at 19.5
million tonnes (milled), similar to the 1998/99 record crop,
though much will depend on the final outcome of the tenth
rice crop and the main winter/spring and summer autumn crops
next year.
Although indications were that the country would export
around 4.3 million tonnes of rice in 1999, in line with the
Government's target, the floods and resultant food shortages
may mean that some of the rice is diverted as assistance to
vulnerable groups. In the first nine months of the year, the
country exported 3.8 million tonnes.
The output of the main sorghum crop, now being harvested, is
forecast at 416 000 tonnes, some 12 percent lower than last
year, due to reduced planted area. Small scale breeding of
desert locust could extend into areas of recent rainfall in
the eastern desert and small bands and swarmlets may form.
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA (12 November)
The country has been affected by hurricane "Jos�" rains and
winds in late October. Preliminary reports indicate that
damage to housing and infrastructure has been incurred, while
an evaluation of possible damage to the important tourist
infrastructure is underway. An assessment of damage to the
agricultural sector has not yet been made available. The
island is currently being threatened by Hurricane �Lenny�.
COSTA RICA (2 November)
Storm rains and flooding in September and October have
affected the country, particularly the provinces of San Jos�
and Cartago, in the centre, Guanacaste and Puntareanas on the
Pacific coast, and Heredia on the north Atlantic coast.
Preliminary estimates indicate that about 7 000 hectares of
agricultural fields have been affected, with consequent
damage to foodcrops, mainly paddy and beans. Export crops
such as sugar cane and fruits, as well as livestock pastures,
have been also affected. Despite losses incurred to the
developing 1999/2000 second season cereal crops, for
harvesting from November, an average maize output (both
crops) is anticipated. Production of paddy, principally in
the Chorotega and Brunca regions, is forecast to be above
average; however, some 90 000 tonnes of rice will need to be
imported in marketing year 2 000(January/December) to meet
domestic demand for this important food staple.
The central and western parts of the country were affected by
hurricane "Irene" torrential rains and winds in mid-October.
A number of victims is reported and mass evacuation of people
was effected. Considerable damage to housing and
infrastructure is reported, particularly in the capital,
Havana, and surrounding areas. Emergency assistance for house
reconstruction has been provided by the Government. A
preliminary assessment of damage to the agricultural sector
indicates that considerable losses have been inflicted to
banana plantations, particularly in the Province of Havana.
Harvesting of the spring/summer paddy crop (planted from
March to August approximately) has been also affected,
principally in the Province of Pinar del Rio, by the heavy
rains and flooding; however, despite possible losses
incurred, an above-average paddy output for the whole country
is forecast. Minor foodcrops such as roots and tubers are
reported to be affected. Planting of the important export
earning sugar crop was interrupted, and large growing areas
have been flooded, principally in the central provinces of
Sancti-Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. No
serious damage to the crop is anticipated; however, some
damage to the supporting infrastructure of the sugar industry
is reported. Tobacco plantations, another important export
crop, were also spared of the ravage of the hurricane. The
rains helped, by contrast, refill water reservoirs all over
the country that had been suffering from a dry spell since
November last year. Food assistance from the international
community continues to be provided. About 4 400 tonnes of
wheat have been delivered against a similar quantity of
pledges so far.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (2 November) f
Planting of the 1999/2000 second season coarse grain crops
has only started, while harvesting of the second season paddy
crop is underway. Weather conditions have favoured the crops
and average outputs are expected. Good outturns are also
anticipated from other basic foodcrops, such as plantains,
fruits, potatoes and roots and garden vegetables. Livestock
pastures are reported in good conditions.
Maize imports of some 650 000 to 700 000 tonnes would
nevertheless be required in the 1999/2000 (July/June)
marketing year, largely to meet an anticipated expansion in
the demand for animal feed, following last year's contraction
in the poultry sector due to hurricane "Georges" impact.
Storm rains and flooding in September and first half of
October have affected the country, particularly in the low
lying areas of the Lempa River region, in the east, the
Ahuachap�n department, in the west, and the capital of San
Salvador and suburbs. A state of emergency has been declared
by the Government. A number of casualties is reported. Mass
evacuation of people has been effected and emergency food
distributed with the assistance of the international
community. Considerable damage to infrastructure has been
incurred as some of the areas had been severely affected in
1998 by the passage of hurricane "Mitch". A preliminary
assessment of damage to the agricultural sector indicates
that some 8 000 tonnes of maize, 1 324 tonnes of beans, 1 325
tonnes of sorghum and 345 tonnes of rice have been destroyed.
These represent, in aggregate, about 2 per cent of the
anticipated annual output; however, maize losses between 50
and 100 percent are reported in the most affected areas.
Other minor foodcrops and some major export crops, such as
sugar (1 900 hectares), and numerous small animal farms have
been affected by the floods. The food situation for the
country as a whole is under control, but some of the affected
areas have suffered from food shortages and an increase in
the price of beans is reported. Despite losses incurred,
cereal outputs (both crops) are expected to be above average,
while production of beans, an important food staple in the
population's diet, is anticipated to be average.
Maize imports in marketing year 1999/2000 (August/July),
mostly for the feed industry, is forecast to decrease from
last year's 264 000 tonnes to about 150 000 tonnes.
Storm rains and flooding in September and the first half of
October have affected the country, particularly around the
capital of Ciudad Guatemala and the town of Retalhuleu, south
west of the capital, where damage to housing as well as to
crops is reported. A state of alert has been declared by the
Government. A preliminary assessment of damages to the
agricultural sector indicates that several thousand hectares
of the important banana export crop, near the department of
Izabal, in the north-east, are reported to be affected.
Harvesting of the 1999/2000 second season maize crop is about
to start, and despite affected plantings (315 hectares) an
above-average output is expected for the year as a whole.
Maize imports, mainly yellow, in marketing year 1999/2000
(July/June) are forecast to be about 550 000 tonnes, similar
to the previous year.
Weather conditions have favoured planting of the 1999/2000
sorghum crop and that of the second season irrigated paddy
crop. Early production forecasts point out to an average
sorghum output of some 80 000 tonnes, while paddy output
(irrigated and non-irrigated) for the whole year should be
slightly below last year's average 70 000 tonnes. Technical
and food assistance from the international community continue
to be distributed. Food assistance from the international
community continued to be distributed through development
projects to some sectors of the population. About 1 000
tonnes have been distributed against pledges so far of 30 000
tonnes.
Maize imports in the 1999/2000 marketing year (July/June) are
expected to be some 70 000 tonnes, which compares to 50 000
tonnes the year before. Rice imports in 1999
(January/December) are provisionally estimated at 170 000
tonnes, similar to last year.
Torrential rains and flooding in September and the first half
of October have affected the country, particularly in the
Sula Valley, in the north, near the industrial city of San
Pedro de Sula. High waters and mudslides have also affected
the capital, Tegucigalpa, and its surrounding areas. Mass
evacuation of people has been effected and a number of
casualties reported. A state of emergency has been declared
by the Government, and relief and food assistance from the
international community has been distributed to the victims.
Significant damage to housing and infrastructure is also
reported in the most affected areas, which had been severely
affected last year by hurricane "Mitch". A preliminary
assessment of damage to the agricultural sector indicates
that about 8 000 hectares of basic grains have been affected
due to the incessant rains and flooding, also previously
affected by drought. Damage has also been inflicted on
banana, sugar cane and African palm plantations, the main
agricultural exports of the country. Harvesting of the
1999/2000 first season cereal crops was near completion and
planting of the second season crops had only started when the
adverse weather struck. Below-average outputs for the year,
close to 1998/99 hurricane affected crops, are forecast.
Assessments for the rehabilitation of the agricultural sector
are also being conducted.
Torrential rains, flooding and mudslides in September and
during the first half of October have seriously affected the
central and southern parts of the country, particularly the
states of Puebla, Veracruz, Hidalgo, Tabasco and some areas
in Chiapas. A significant number of casualties is reported. A
preliminary official report indicates that more than 270 000
people have been directly affected, including about 90 000
farmers and livestock raisers in an area of near 240 000
hectares. Prompt emergency assistance has been provided by
the Government. It is reported that roads and basic
infrastructure have been severely hit by the phenomenon.
Harvesting of the important spring/summer maize crop had only
started when the adverse weather struck. Although no major
damage to maize growing fields has been so far reported, as
the states most severely affected are not major producers of
basic grains, some localized losses have been experienced,
principally in the large growing state of Chiapas. Moreover,
the outlook is favourable for the other major grain producing
areas in the country. Maize production in 1999 is
consequently expected to be about average. There is some
probability of food shortfalls, however, in the most affected
areas, but no food shortage is anticipated for the domestic
market as a whole. Major export crops grown in the affected
areas, such as sugar cane and citrus, have been affected, but
only minor damage is reported according to preliminary
assessments.
Storm rains and flooding during September and the first half
of October have affected the country, particularly the
department of Rivas, in the south, around the capital,
Managua, some coastal areas on the Pacific, and the northern
departments of Estel�, Madriz and Nueva Segovia. Several of
these areas had been severely affected last year by hurricane
"Mitch". States of emergency and alert have been declared by
the Government in various locations. A number of casualties
has been reported and more than 100 000 persons have been
directly affected. Roads and minor infrastructure have
received the brunt of the damage. Damage to rural housing is
also reported, as well as some disease outbreaks in some
municipalities. Preliminary assessment of damage to the
agricultural sector indicates that about 2.5 percent of the
planted area to the second season cereal crops has been
affected, although localized damage of a much bigger
magnitude is reported. A loss of about 12 percent of the
anticipated production from the sesame export crop is
estimated. Emergency assistance, including food distribution
from the international community, has been provided to the
affected population. Despite the damage, near average
1999/2000 grain output is anticipated.
Recent light rains have favoured the developing 1999/2000
wheat crop for harvesting from November. The crop had been
suffering from lack of rain, particularly in the northern
provinces of Chaco and Entre Rios. By contrast, soil moisture
conditions in the main producing areas of Buenos Aires and La
Pampa provinces are reported adequate. Early production
forecasts point out to an increase from last year's below-
average 11.5 million tonnes to a near-average 13 million
tonnes, mainly as a result of enlarged plantings. Sowing of
the 1999/2000 maize crop is underway. The area planted is
forecast to increase by 8 to 10 percent from 1998/99 average
plantings. Expanded plantings are anticipated particularly in
the provinces of Entre Rios and Santa Fe. By mid-October,
about 33 percent of intended plantings had been sown which
compares to 22 percent the year before. Planting of the
1999/2000 paddy crop is underway. The area planted is
expected to decline considerably from last year, principally
in the main growing areas of Corriente and Entre Rios, mostly
as result of a constraint in exports to neighbouring
countries.
Harvesting of the 1999 winter wheat crop has been completed
and output for the year is estimated at 141 000 tonnes, which
compares to last year's 164 000 tonnes and to the 1997 crop
of 187 000 tonnes. This is due to dry weather particularly
during the crop development phase which has contributed to
lower than average yields. Recent rains in the highlands and
in some of the highland valleys have favoured sowing of the
1999/2000 first season cereal and potato crops, while
planting is being delayed in the southern parts because of
insufficient precipitation.
Wheat imports in the 1999/2000 marketing year (July/June) are
forecast at 260 000 tonnes, some 10 percent above the
previous year. Some 10 000 tonnes of food aid have been
received against pledges so far of 169 000 tonnes.
Harvesting of the 1999 wheat crop in the main producing
states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul has benefited from
relative dry hot weather. Harvesting operations are also
proceeding well in other growing states. Production is
officially forecast to increase from last year's 2.2 million
tonnes to a slightly above-average 2.4 million tonnes. The
dry weather, by contrast, has delayed planting of the
1999/2000 maize crop, particularly in the main growing
central and southern areas. Some recent light rains are
nevertheless reported, and timely normal rainfall is expected
during the growing period. This should help achieve average
yields. The area planted is forecast to expand from the
previous year, largely as a result of improved domestic
prices. Sowing of the 1999/2000 paddy crop has started and
intended plantings should decline from the above-average
level of the previous season, mainly as a result of credit
constraints coupled with the strong competition of low priced
imports from neighbouring countries.
Planting of the 1999/2000 wheat crop continues under
generally dry weather conditions. Soil moisture conditions
are still below average despite beneficial rains in
September. Harvesting is due from December and a recovery
from last year's severely drought affected crop is
tentatively forecast. Planting of the 1999/2000 maize crop is
also underway and plantings are expected to improve from the
previous year's below-average level.
Heavy rains and flooding in October have affected the
country, particularly the Pacific coastal provinces in the
south, where significant damage to housing and infrastructure
is reported. Damage is also reported in some of the northern
and Caribbean coastal areas. An assessment of damage to the
agricultural sector has not been made available yet.
Harvesting of the 1999/2000 first season maize crop had been
completed when the adverse weather struck, and planting of
the second season crop is underway. Despite possible losses
incurred, aggregate maize output (both crops) is expected to
be near average. A slightly above-average 1999 paddy output
is estimated. This is due to the combination of enlarged
plantings, as a result of attractive prices, and the abundant
rains which have contributed to higher than average yields.
Following normal to abundant rains in September, harvesting
of the 1999 second season maize, mostly white, has started
under dry and cold weather conditions which are affecting
plantings and livestock pastures in some parts. Some crops in
the highlands have been affected by frosts. Despite possible
damage to crops, the 1999 maize output is provisionally
estimated at a near-average 590 000 tonnes, a significant
increase from the El Ni�o severely affected 1997/98 crop when
only 380 000 tonnes were collected. Harvesting of the 1999
second season paddy crop has also started and output for the
year (both crops) is tentatively estimated at an average 1.2
million tonnes (unmilled).
Harvesting of the 1999 wheat crop has been virtually
completed under generally dry weather. Output is estimated at
120 000 tonnes which compares to the last 5-year average of
134 000 tonnes. Harvesting of the 1999 yellow maize crop has
also been practically completed and aggregate output (white
and yellow) for the year is estimated at a slightly above-
average 855 000 tonnes. A bumper paddy crop of 1.8 million
tonnes has been collected, some 33 percent above the average.
Harvesting of the 1999/2000 wheat crop has started in some
parts under generally dry weather. Early production forecasts
point out to an above-average output of some 545 000 tonnes.
Planting of the 1999/2000 coarse grain crops is underway and
aggregate area planted is expected to be about average.
Planting of the 2000 paddy crop, the main agricultural
export, has also started and plantings are expected to
decline from 1999 record level, largely as a consequence of
an anticipated decline in exports to neighbouring countries.
Heavy rains and flooding have affected harvesting of the 1999
coarse grain and paddy crops. Despite possible crop losses,
maize output is anticipated at an average 1 million tonnes,
while production of paddy is also provisionally estimated at
a slightly below-average 673 000 tonnes.
FAO�s latest forecast puts aggregate 1999 cereal production
in the EC at almost 202 million tonnes, some 4 percent below
last year but above average for the past 5 years. The decline
is largely due to reduced area (5 percent increase in the
compulsory set-aside requirements) and adverse weather. Wheat
output is now estimated at 97.6 million tonnes, 5 percent
below 1998. The reduction occurred mostly in France, where
output is estimated at 37 million tonnes, some 3 million
tonnes below 1998. Other significant reductions among the
EC�s major producers are reported in Denmark, Spain and
Germany. Aggregate output of coarse grains is now forecast at
101.6 million tonnes, 4 percent below last year. In the EC,
harvesting of the 1999 paddy crop is in progress and the
expectation is for output to be close to last year�s official
estimate of about 2.6 million tonnes.
The 1999 cereal output is estimated to have fallen to about
0.5 million tonnes (including 0.3 million tonnes of wheat).
Adverse weather affected autumn wheat planting and farmers�
preference away from traditional cereals towards more
lucrative cash crops continues to limit cereal area. Food
assistance continues to be provided to remaining Kosovar
refugees and vulnerable population groups.
The aggregate 1999 grain and pulse harvest is officially
reported to be only 3.7 million tonnes. This record low
output, is the result of severe economic problems coupled
with adverse weather (May frosts, hot and dry conditions in
June/July). Given the high levels of inflation, the degree of
market interference exercised by the government and the
consequent shortages of most items in the official
distribution chain, it is likely that the actual level of
output is higher. Official data indicate that yields of
potatoes, vegetables and fodder are also down, and livestock
numbers are being reduced. .
In view of the second poor cereal harvest in succession,
nearly 25 percent less than last year's, the official reports
indicate that the country will need up to US$100 million to
import up to 1.5 million tonnes of cereals including 0.5
million tonnes of foodgrains. It is uncertain if this large
quantity of feedgrains will be mobilized. Aggregate cereal
imports in 1999/2000 are tentatively estimated at 1.2 million
tonnes. Demand for livestock products remains high, mainly
for export to the Russian Federation in payment for fuel, but
foreign exchange constraints limit feedgrain imports. As of 1
January 2000, the Belarus rouble is to be redenominated with
one new rouble replacing 1000 old Belarussian roubles.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (3 November)
Indications are that the 1999 cereal harvest could remain
close to last year's 1.1 million tonnes. Although the area
sown to spring maize increased, untimely rains resulted in
lower yields. The area sown to winter crops remained stable.
The economy has been negatively affected by civil unrest in
the region but indications are that the crop and overall food
supply situation have not been unduly disrupted.
Latest (official) estimates put 1999 wheat output at 3
million tonnes, higher than earlier expectations but still
lower than last year and below average. The fall was largely
due to reduced planting and a fall in fertilizer use. As of
early November winter wheat planting for harvest in 2000 was
reported to be well advanced, with some 600 000 hectares
already planted under generally favourable conditions. The
pace of planting is ahead of last year. Total area planted is
expected to reach about 1 million hectares. Some 150 000
hectares of barley has also been planted.
The 1999 cereal harvest fell by over one third to 2.1 million
tonnes, in response to economic problems which reduced winter
and spring grain plantings and untimely rains which reduced
yields. Early indications are that the area sown to winter
wheat, for harvest in 2000 is likely to recover from last
year's 150 000 hectares, but by 20 October, the target area
of 293 000 hectares had not yet been achieved.
Overall, the cereal supply situation in 1999/2000 is likely
to remain satisfactory, as there are substantial wheat carry-
in stocks. Even with the reduced 1999 crop, farmers are
experiencing difficulties obtaining payment for sales to the
millers and processors.
Latest official estimates put aggregate cereal output in 1999
is estimated at 6.9 million tonnes, slightly up from last
year with better yields more than offsetting a reduction in
area. Of the total, wheat is estimated to account for just
over 4 million tonnes.
The early outlook for winter cereals for harvest in 2000 is
satisfactory. The 1999 grain harvest is officially estimated
at 625 000 tonnes, some 10 percent less than output in 1998
in view of reduction in the area sown in response to import
competition. In 1999/2000, cereal imports are forecast at
nearly 200 000 tonnes.
Latest estimates put 1999 wheat output at 2.6 million tonnes,
almost 50 percent lower than 1998. The fall was due to
sharply reduced plantings and severe rains and flooding. In
contrast, coarse grain output is estimated to be up slightly
reflecting a larger maize crop which more than offset reduced
output of the other coarse grains. As of late October, winter
grain planting was reported to be progressing normally with
wheat planted on some 60 percent of the expected 1.1 million
hectares.
The 1999 grain harvest is expected to fall by 5 percent to
925 000 tonnes as the winter grain area declined in response
to low cereal prices. Private trade in grain is not
encouraged and farmers feed grain on farm or sell to mills.
The official intervention prices this year are Lats 67 for
top grade wheat and rye. This is higher than the market price
of Lats 60-63 but the volume that will be purchased depends
on the availability of funds. High production costs, (old
machinery, small farms etc) make exports, also of meat, not
competitive although small quantities are bartered. Imports
are limited to about 70 000 tonnes, mainly of bread quality
wheat per annum.
The 1999 grain harvest is estimated to have fallen by almost
25 percent to 2.1 million tonnes in response to a percent
reduction in the area sown and lower yields. Low grain prices
and recession in the livestock industry following the
devaluation of the Russian rouble as well as the accumulation
of livestock and grain stocks has contributed to the
reduction in area. In contrast, the areas sown to oilseeds
and that under perennial pasture increased. Despite the lower
harvest, the overall food supply situation is likely to
remain satisfactory in view of the substantial carry-forward
stocks of cereals.
Difficulties in marketing last year's crop and adverse
growing conditions have reduced the area sown to grains and
average yields. The aggregate 1999 grain harvest is
anticipated to fall to 2.1 million tonnes, (from 2.5 million
tonnes in 1998) in response to an 11 percent reduction in the
area sown to wheat and dry conditions, which affected spring
grains. Despite the reduced harvest, 1999 cereal production
will be adequate to meet domestic food needs and significant
commercial imports of cereals are not expected in the
1999/2000 marketing year (July/June). However, government
purchases of bread grains are proceeding slowly. The
government planned to purchase 100 000 tonnes of food wheat
at US$ 91 per tonne from this year's harvest but has obtained
only 42 000 tonnes to date.
The 1999 cereal output is estimated at about 26.5 million
tonnes, somewhat below last year�s bumper harvest but above
average of the past five years.
1999 cereal output is estimated at about 16.5 million tonnes.
The wheat harvest is now forecast at only 4.6 million tonnes,
compared to 5.2 million tonnes in the previous year, due to
smaller plantings and also reflecting crop damage due to
floods and torrential rains in the summer. In contrast, the
summer maize crop is expected to recover to about 10 million
tonnes from last year�s low level. Winter wheat planting is
well underway and is expected to cover about 1.3 million
hectares this autumn.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (4 November)
Current production this year is projected to be above last
year's poor crop, despite a sharp reduction in area and
locust infestation in parts. Although growing conditions have
been mixed, overall yields were 8 percent higher than last
year. Yields were much higher in the area from North Caucasus
to the Ural Region and in part of East Siberia. East of the
Urals growing conditions were generally better but inflation,
shortage of inputs and untimely rains in parts, led to delays
in harvest and lower yields than last year.
Official sources forecast 1999 grain and pulse production at
58 million tonnes (bunker weight) or 53 million tonnes
cleaned weight. However, in view of restrictive grain
marketing policies and shortage of cash, there is consensus
that production estimates are underestimated by as much as 10-
20 percent. FAO, therefore, forecasts 1999 grain output at
about 59 million tonnes, 11 million tonnes higher than
official output in 1998.
Aggregate grain area fell by 8 percent to 46.8 million
hectares. This decline is due to increased winterkill in 1999
(2.75 million hectares compared to 2.1 million hectares in
1998) and a 3 million hectares decline, to 35.4 million
hectares, in spring area. Hot/dry weather in summer further
reduced the harvested area.
The grain supply situation in 1999/2000 will remain tight,
with no possibility of stock replenishment following the
sharp drawdown last year. In addition, economic problems and
policies which act as a disincentive to farmers, point to
little improvement in output next year. Therefore, the tight
supply situation is likely to continue and priority will have
to be given to meeting human consumption needs. The livestock
sector is likely to remain under pressure.
FAO estimates minimum cereal requirement in 1999/2000
(including 1 million tonnes of pulses) at 70 million tonnes.
Against this requirement, cereal availability, with rice in
milled equivalent and opening stocks is estimated at 63
million tonnes, leaving an import requirement of at least 6
million tonnes to be covered by commercial imports and food
aid. Outstanding deliveries of food aid pledged in 1998/99
amount to about 2.7 million tonnes (1.5 million tonnes wheat,
125 000 tonnes of rice, about 800 000 tonnes of maize and
300 000 tonnes of rye), leaving an import requirement of 3.2
million tonnes to be met commercially. Between 3.7 and 4
million tonnes of cereals were mobilized commercially in
1995/96 and 1996/97. With a good harvest and a sizeable
export surplus of up to 7 million tonnes in neighbouring
Kazakhstan, this level of commercial imports should be
feasible in 1999/2000.
In view of tight supplies and distribution problems, the
government has requested over 4 million tonnes of grain in
food aid, including 1 million tonnes of food quality wheat,
and 1 million tonnes of soybeans. Such a large additional
quantity of aid for the second year in succession risks
making the country dependent on food aid. However, given that
there is a shortage of feed grain along with a distribution
problem, it may be possible to provide assistance in the form
of maize, soybeans and meal, which do not compete directly
with the domestic production
The unfolding humanitarian crisis in Chechnya has led to the
displacement of some 250 000 people, mostly to neighbouring
Ingushetia. The government of Ingushetia, a small country of
300 000 inhabitants, has requested international assistance
to feed and shelter the large number of refugees. These
people are urgently in need of humanitarian assistance, food,
shelter, blankets and health supplies. Their plight will get
worse as the winter advances.
The intensified military action in Chechnya has resulted in
deaths and serious damage to infrastructure, property and
agriculture. Although the plight of the refugees in
Ingushetia and other neighbouring areas is a cause of
immediate concern, the food security of the civilian
population trapped in the capital, Grozny, is rapidly
deteriorating. Substantial humanitarian assistance will be
required in the coming months.
The outlook for winter grains, for harvest in the spring of
2000 is unfavourable. Some 12.4 million hectares have been
planted, compared to 13.2 at the same time last year.
The 1999 cereal production is estimated at 3.4 million
tonnes, just below last year and slightly below the average
of the past five years. A sharp reduction in wheat output to
1.2 million tonnes has been only partially offset by a larger
coarse grains crop (mostly barley and maize).
SLOVENIA (11 November)
The 1999 cereal output is estimated at about 500 000 tonnes
(including 155 000 tonnes of wheat), 15 percent below last
year�s good crop and below the average of the past five
years. The winter wheat area fell and adverse summer weather
is reported to have affected yields.
THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (11
November)
The 1999 cereal production is estimated to be slightly above
last year�s crop at about 770 000 tonnes (including 380 000
tonnes of wheat). As of late October some food aid was still
being distributed to the remaining Kosovar refugees and host
families.
Indications are that the aggregate 1999-grain harvest is no
better than last years-poor 29 million tonnes. This poor
result is mainly due to hot and dry conditions in June and
July, which exacerbated the effects of economic difficulties,
shortages of inputs, heavy weed infestation and untimely
frosts in May. Provided the 1999 maize crop reaches 1.5
million tonnes, as is likely, FAO forecasts the aggregate
1999 cereal and pulse harvest at 28.4 million tonnes, nearly
1 million tonnes less than last year's good harvest. Output
of wheat is provisionally estimated by FAO at 16 million
tonnes, about 1 million tonnes less than last year, and that
of coarse grains at 11.7 million tonnes compared to 11.4 in
the preceding year. Again this year, many regions placed
controls to the free movement of grain and efforts by the
government and regional authorities to recover debts owed by
farmers have probably resulted in understatement in actual
yields. The validity of this year's harvest estimates may
also have been affected by the recent elections; persistent
rumours of hryvnia devaluation after the elections and well-
publicised moves by the government to regulate grain exports.
Nevertheless, there is little doubt that 1999 will see the
second poor harvest in succession.
Indications are that the area sown to winter crops has
reached 7.9 (of which 7.1 million on the former state farms).
Growing conditions for winter grains have not been good but
have improved in the last few weeks.
Despite another poor harvest, the food supply situation is
likely to remain satisfactory. Even at the reduced level,
domestic wheat production far exceeds the aggregate
requirements for human consumption. The country exported 5.8
million tonnes of grain, including 4.4 million tonnes of
wheat in 1998/99. Official reports indicate that the country
had already exported 1,9 million tonnes of cereals from this
year's harvest by October, including 1.5 million tonnes of
wheat. However, the availability of animal feed will remain
highly constrained. Current indications are that it is more
profitable to export feed grains than to sell on the domestic
market and cereal exports are likely to continue in
1999/2000, but at a reduced level. FAO tentatively forecasts
cereal exports at 3.8 million tonnes, including 2.3 million
tonnes of wheat.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND
MONTENEGRO)* (4 November)
Official reports indicate that sharply higher spring grain
yields have offset the reduced planted area, bringing
aggregate cereal production in 1999 to 8.6 million tonnes
compared to 8.7 million tonnes in 1998. The wheat harvest is
put at only 2.2 million tonnes, some 27 percent less than
last year. Lower average yields, some 15 percent down,
exacerbated the reduction in the area sown during the autumn.
The area sown to winter wheat fell to around 700 000 hectares
mainly in response to economic difficulties, particularly
rapid inflation and shortages of inputs, as well as
persistent and untimely rains at planting and harvest.
Official harvest estimates put the 1999 maize harvest at
between 5.8 and 6 million tonnes. Spring sowing operations
were considered a strategic priority. Official reports
indicate that the spring crop target area - 2.5 million
hectares, including 1.5 million hectares of coarse grains -
was achieved, despite floods in July, and chronic shortages
of farm funds and inputs, disruption of labour and damage to
fields and other infrastructure.
The area target for winter crops, to be harvested in the
spring of 2000, is set at 1.1 million hectares. Included in
this target are 850 000 hectares of wheat (actual in 1998/99
was closer to 700 000 ha) and 150 000 hectares of barley
(1998/99 130 000 ha). Chronic shortages of fertilizer and
agrochemicals will also depress yields, pointing to another
poor wheat harvest next year.
Substantial carry-forward stocks from 1998/99 are available.
Even if, according to official estimates, the overall cereal
supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory, there
are a large number of economically and socially deprived
people and internally displaced who will require targeted
assistance to get through the winter, not only with food but
also with shelter and heating. Some 825 000 socially and
economically vulnerable people are assessed to need 74 300
tonnes of food aid over 6 months.
In the Province of Kosovo, the output of all crops was
severely disrupted by hostilities and large-scale population
displacement. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment
Mission which visited the Province in August, forecast wheat
production in the province in 1999 at about 113 000 tonnes,
65 percent lower than estimated output in 1997. This will
meet only 30 percent of the domestic requirement. Output of
maize, at 57 000 tonnes, is forecast to be only 20 percent of
average. In addition, the normal spring/summer vegetable
harvest was almost zero and there has been widespread looting
and slaughter of livestock. These losses will have both
nutritional and economic consequences in the coming year.
Although the Republic of Serbia is a net exporter of cereals,
the Province of Kosovo has a wheat import requirement in
1999/2000 marketing year of an estimated at 228 000 tonnes,
of which 143 000 tonnes of emergency food aid
deliveries/pledges are scheduled up to the end of 1999,
leaving an uncovered import gap of about 85 000 tonnes.
The 1999 wheat harvest was mostly complete by the end of
October, somewhat later than normal due to cool and rainy
weather during the season. The later harvested crops are
reported to have suffered some yield loss due to frost
damage. The latest official forecast puts 1999 wheat output
at 25.9 million tonnes, some 7 percent above last year but
about 5 percent below the 10-year average. Aggregate coarse
grain production is expected to decrease in 1999 to 25.8
million tonnes, 3 percent lower than last year but 6 percent
higher than the 10-year average.
The November USDA crop report put the 1999 aggregate wheat
(winter and spring) output at 62.8 million tonnes, about 10
percent down from 1998 and slightly below the average of the
past five years. Planting of winter wheat for harvest next
year was reported to be more than 90 percent complete by 7
November, which is about normal for the time of season.
However, the overall condition of the crop is somewhat down
on the previous year, mostly reflecting persisting dry
conditions over the past few weeks, particularly in the
southern Plains and the Pacific north west. On 7 November, 50
percent of the crop was assessed to be in �good to excellent�
condition, down from 66 percent a year earlier, and the worst
since 1992. With regard to the final area to be sown to wheat
this autumn, there remains considerable uncertainty. With
current new crop prices (futures prices) for wheat lower than
those at the same time last year, there is little incentive
for farmers to increase plantings and they may continue the
shift towards alternative crops in search of better returns.
The outlook for the 1999 coarse grains crop remains generally
satisfactory. The USDA's November forecast put aggregate
coarse grain production at 266 million tonnes, about 6
million tonnes below last year. Maize harvesting was
virtually complete by early November and the latest estimate
of output has been revised up slightly to 242 million tonnes.
However, at this level, production would still be some 2
percent below last year. The barley, oats and rye crops are
also forecast to be down somewhat compared to 1998 but a
larger sorghum crop is in prospect. The estimate of paddy
output in 1999 remains unchanged at a record 9.6 million
tonnes.
Latest information confirms that another bumper wheat harvest
is in prospect. Timely rainfall in early October in most of
the eastern states� wheat areas boosted the yield potential
of the crops which were already in good condition. The latest
official forecast puts the 1999 wheat crop at 21.9 million
tonnes, about 4 percent up from last year and well above the
average of the past 5 years. The recent rains also benefited
the winter coarse grain crops (mostly barley and oats).
However, reflecting reduced plantings of barley and oats, and
despite good summer coarse grain crops of sorghum and maize
harvested earlier this year, aggregate coarse grains
production in 1999 is expected to decline somewhat to about
8.1 million tonnes compared to 8.9 million tonnes in 1998. In
Australia, preparations for the 2000 paddy season are
underway and output is officially forecast at 1.3 million
tonnes from an area of about 150 000 hectares. However, the
final outcome will largely depend on the availability of
irrigation water in New South Wales where most of the rice is
produced.
Crop prospects are good, mainly for roots and tubers,
following good rains during the growing season. However, the
food supply situation is likely to be tight for vulnerable
population groups and those who lost their crops as a result
of the drought earlier in the year.
EASTERN
AFRICA
SOUTHERN AFRICA
ASIA
CENTRAL AMERICA (including the Caribbean)
SOUTH AMERICA
EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA
OCEANIA