FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT

MISSION TO ANGOLA

17 May 2000

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

2. ECONOMY AND AGRICULTURE

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 1999/2000

4. SITUATION BY REGION AND PROVINCE

5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

6. EMERGENCY FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENT

1. OVERVIEW

The consequences of the collapse of the peace agreement in 1998, notably renewed fighting, massive displacements of populations and insecurity, continue to cause serious concern despite efforts by the Government and its partners to redress the situation. According to the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Angola, IDPs have now reached nearly 2.6 million, or 53 percent more than last year's stated figure. This increase is due both to improved Government access to more areas and to the continuing strife. At present, WFP estimates that about 1.9 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.

In an effort to provide the Government and the international community with a basis for their strategies in assisting the war-affected populations, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission was fielded to Angola from 16 April to 3 May 2000. Its purpose was to evaluate the 1999/2000 food crop production and estimate cereal import requirements for 2000/2001 (April/March), including food aid needs. The Mission was accompanied by staff from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINADER), observers from the European Union (EU), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). Detailed planning of the Mission, preparatory documents and other background information were provided by the FAO-supported Food Security Unit in MINADER, the Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping (VAM) Unit of the WFP Office in Angola, and WFP sub-offices in the provinces. The information provided on farming populations and areas planted, as well as briefs on the humanitarian situation in the provinces, were especially useful for the Mission.

Before proceeding to the field, the Mission met in Luanda with the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Minister of Social Assistance and Reintegration (MINARS), UN Agencies, and donor and NGO representations to highlight issues deserving particular attention, including the geographical areas to be covered. The mapping of agro-ecological zones of Angola by the Food Security Unit greatly facilitated crop assessment. To ensure adequate coverage of key areas within the time allocated, the Mission split into three groups: Group I visited the provinces of Huambo, Bie, Malanje and Uige; Group II Benguela, Cuando Cubango, Moxico and Huila; Group III Cuanza Sul, Bengo, Luanda, Lunda Sul and Cuanza Norte. Owing to security problems, the groups travelled mostly by air between provincial capitals. Road transport for field inspections was generally limited to the vicinity of the provincial capitals and other cities visited. In the provinces, the Mission teams held discussions with Governors, local staff of MINADER, MINARS and NGOs, as well as with farmers, traders and IDPs to cross-check and supplement pre-Mission information. Yield measurements were undertaken during field inspections, and supply and prices of major food commodities were checked in the local markets. Reports from MINADER and WFP sub-offices provided information on areas and provinces not visited. For estimates of rainfall amounts and distribution, satellite imagery was supplemented by data and information provided by MINADER, NGOs, and farmers.

The Mission forecasts the 1999/2000 cereal production at 504 000 tonnes, which is about 5.5 percent lower than last year. The shortfall is essentially due to lower maize production which decreased by 8 percent, from 428 000 tonnes to 394 000 tonnes. By contrast, other crops with lower water requirements experienced production increases. Thus sorghum/millet production edged up 3 percent to 105 000 tonnes; bean and groundnut production rose by 11 and 13 percent respectively, while that of cassava and Irish potatoes was estimated to be substantially higher than was forecast last year.

The reduction in maize production is attributed to two major factors, namely unfavourable rainfall pattern and shortage of essential inputs. Although cumulative rainfall for most of the country was above average for the whole season, from September 1999 to April 2000, rains started late, particularly in the southern and central areas. In the latter, good rains arrived only in November. Excessive rains in many areas towards the end of December were then followed by an abnormally long dry spell in late January and February. Secondly, there was a general scarcity of essential inputs, coupled with late distribution and frequently poor quality of seeds. In addition, the displaced farm families had access to very limited amounts of land, if any, in their new locations and in many cases the land is of poor quality.

For the 2000/2001 marketing year (April/March), domestic cereal supply, estimated at 504 000 tonnes, falls far short of national consumption requirements. With a mid-marketing year population estimate of 13 675 000, cereal import requirements for the 2000/2001 are estimated at 753 000 tonnes. Of these, the Mission estimates that 420 000 tonnes will be imported commercially, leaving 333 000 tonnes to be covered by food aid.

There is urgent need to allocate fertile land in adequate amounts to IDPs, and to ensure timely delivery of the requisite inputs to the farming population for the 2000/2001 cropping year.

2. ECONOMY AND AGRICULTURE ¹

With its vast oil and mineral reserves, notably diamonds, abundant arable land and water resources, Angola has the potential to become one of Africa's strongest economies. But since the struggle for liberation in the early 1960s, and particularly with the outbreak of the civil war following independence in 1975, Angolans have only known suffering, pervasive insecurity, declining socio-economic conditions and acute deprivation. UNDP reports indicate that in 1999, 60 percent of the population lived below the poverty line while the country ranked 160 in the Human Development Index compared to 155 the previous year, suggesting a worsening in living standards.

Angola's GDP increased by an average of 4.5 percent between 1994 and 1999 according to IMF estimates. But over-dependence on the oil sector (which accounted for 90 percent of export revenues and 44 percent of GDP in 1998), the volatility of oil prices and the resumption of warfare have made growth erratic. Thus the high growth rates of over 11 percent in 1995 and 1996 contrast sharply with the negative rates of -3.8 and -0.2 in 1998 and 1999 respectively. This is mirrored by trends in the growth rate of per capita GDP which has plummeted from highs of over 8 percent in 1995 and 1996 to -6.5 in 1998 and -3.5 in 1999.

In addition, income distribution has been worsening. According to UNDP, between 1995 and 1999, the incomes of the richest 10 percent of families increased by 43 percent compared to a reduction of 59 percent of the incomes of the poorer families. This is reflected in the continued deterioration in production and living conditions in the rural sector, coupled with massive population displacements. A United Nations Report "Rapid Assessment of Critical Needs of the War-affected Populations" published in April 2000 describes their situation as alarming and on the brink of reaching the point of crisis. During its field visits, the Mission noted the general consensus that the resident farming population around towns and cities (i.e. that not displaced by the war) was not markedly better off than the displaced. They, too, lack basic agricultural inputs and, because of insecurity, often have to use impoverished soils in the immediate surroundings of provincial capitals and other cities under Government control.

The ratio of Government expenditures to GDP was 62 percent in 1994 and 43 percent in 1999, which is considered high by low- and middle-income country standards. The budget deficit as a proportion of GDP has ranged from 17.6 percent in 1995 to 7.3 percent in 1999, suggesting that Government's efforts to control expenditures are producing the intended effects. However, annualised inflation was about 330 percent in December 1999 compared with 135 percent in December 1998. In order to contain inflation, new monetary and exchange rate measures were introduced in May 1999. They included liberalisation of interest rates, floating of the national currency, establishment of an inter-bank foreign-exchange market, elimination of import licences, and freedom to use company foreign-exchange earnings to import goods.

Agriculture has been the sector most ravaged by the conflict. Except in the coastal area where irrigation is practised by commercial farmers, and to some extent the tuber-producing Northern provinces, Angolan agriculture has fallen to a subsistence level, with little or no marketable surplus. Once self-sufficient in basic foodstuffs, the country has for the past several years relied on imports, particularly food aid, to meet domestic requirements. Plantations of coffee, sisal, cotton and sugar cane have reverted to bush, while production of bananas, palm oil and tobacco has withered during 25 years of warfare. The acute deprivation of the farming community and the lack of credit facilities from financial institutions makes the use of purchased inputs and mechanisation possible only on a few commercial farms. So far, some NGOs have, within their humanitarian assistance, supplied seeds and simple tools to a limited number of IDPs. In its present emergency relief programme, the Government is also planning to provide seeds to small farmers in all the provinces. This, however, will still fall short of the much-needed rural development programmes in secure areas that would in time contribute to sustainable livelihoods for the farming communities.

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 1999/2000

3.1 Security and agricultural production

Despite the fact that security has improved slightly this year compared to 1998/99, the continuing conflict still has a very significant negative effect on agricultural production. Since most provincial roads remain closed and travel on the few that are open is dangerous, the movement of goods (both inputs and produce) and people is severely limited. Conflict and the risk of landmines place considerable restrictions on the use of agricultural land. In many areas, there are still cases of large numbers of farmers leaving land that they have planted because it is unsafe to tend or harvest their crop. Where farmers traditionally practise an extensive fallow-rotation system, this has often become impossible because of the limited availability of secure land. The influx of IDPs to municipal centres around the country puts further pressure on limited land resources. Theft of crops in the field, especially maize, is common in many areas, prompting farmers to harvest their crops prematurely. Theft and the fear of theft have seriously depleted livestock numbers over most of the country.

Rainfall

Annual rainfall in Angola increases from south to north. The mean on the coastal strip varies from less than 100mm in parts of Namibe province to more than 800mm in the coastal parts of Zaire and Cabinda provinces. Further inland the variation is from about 600mm in the south to more than 1600mm in parts of Uige and Lunda Norte provinces.

Satellite imagery indicates that the cumulative rainfall over most of the country was above average for the period September 1999-April 2000. However, the images mask the unfavourable distribution in important agricultural areas as reported by farmers and recorded by MINADER and others. The start of the season was slow with below-average figures for the month of September and, in Central Region, the season was delayed till the beginning of November. Satellite imagery indicates small to large reductions in vegetation compared with the previous year for the month of November over much of the country, especially the centre and the north-east. Rainfall was then excessive during December and early January in much of Northern and Central Regions. Some areas, especially in Central Region, then experienced below-average rains in late January and the month of February.

This distribution resulted in extensive but localized reductions in yields of beans and groundnuts due to waterlogging, and reductions in maize yields due both to waterlogging and to relative drought coinciding with flowering which had been delayed because of late planting. On the other hand, cassava has benefited from the overall high rainfall this year and has been able to accommodate those periods when rainfall was below average.

In terms of pasture, the satellite imagery reveals that, by the beginning of April 2000, the major part of the national area was covered by "good" to "very good" vegetation.

Supply of agricultural inputs

Seeds - mostly of maize, beans, groundnuts and various vegetables - were distributed for the 1999/2000 cropping season in several provinces by Government, international organizations and NGOs, but due to logistical difficulties delivery was frequently delayed, and in some cases (e.g. groundnuts) the quality of delivered seed was reported to be poor. Planned Government allocations included 1 580 tonnes of maize seed, 1 106 tonnes of bean seed and 265 tonnes of groundnut seed. The biggest intended recipient was Huambo, which was due to receive 900 tonnes of maize seed and 480 tonnes of bean seed. Lack of road access meant that some arrived late but most did not arrive at all. At the other end of the scale, some communities were encountered where enough seed had been provided by NGOs. Vegetable seed, presumably diverted from donations, is on sale in several markets but there are few buyers. The availability of cassava planting material was greatly improved this year with multiplication being carried out by both MINADER and NGOs.

Agricultural hand tools were also distributed to IDPs by Government and NGOs. Many communities complained that the number of tools provided was insufficient for the potential numbers of users within a family. However, it is hard to reconcile this complaint with the fact that hoes and machetes were on sale in several markets for as little as 1.5 and 3 Kz respectively (less than US50c). Virtually no fertilizer is used, although some NGOs have distributed very small amounts to a few communities. Some bags of fertilizer are commonly seen in markets but daily sales amount to only a few kg. Veterinary inputs are in short supply throughout the country, including areas where livestock populations are still significant.

Area planted

With the slightly improved security situation during 1999/2000, there has been a marginal increase in the total area under each of the main crops. Out of approximately 1.73 million hectares under the main crops (including rice), maize accounts for 40 percent, millet/sorghum 11 percent, rice <1 percent, beans 11 percent, groundnuts 2 percent, cassava 31 percent, Irish potatoes <1 percent, and sweet potatoes 4 percent.

Both Huambo and Moxico have shown significant increases in cultivated areas this year (by about 34 000 hectares and 12 500 hectares respectively) whereas there has been a reduction in Malanje and Cunene (by about 8 000 hectares and 1 700 hectares respectively). Most other provinces have shown slight increases following improvements in security.

Maize accounts for some 78 percent of the land under coarse grains. Despite a countrywide increase, maize areas have shown a slight contraction in some provinces, notably Malanje (reduced by over 1 500 hectares), Kwanza Sul (almost 3 000 hectares), Bie (over 1 300 hectares), Namibe (over 1 100 hectares), and Cuando Cubango (4 500 hectares). Huambo has registered a significant increase of more than 16 000 hectares in its area under maize, due to improved security, though unfortunately, on account of the irregular rains, this has not been reflected in increased production.

Perhaps unavoidably, much of the land allocated by the Government to the IDPs is of very poor quality. Use of such land reduces overall average yields and is discouraging for those who cultivate it.

Yields

This year's expected national average maize yield at 575 kg/hectare is below that of each of the previous four years. Provinces in the Southern Region are all expected to give yields that are equal to, or higher than, last year's yields, and in the Northern Region some provinces are expected to show an increase while others are expected to show a reduction. In the Central Region, however, which is the main maize-producing area of the country, all provinces except Benguela are forecast to have lower yields than last year. The situation is also exacerbated by the fact that in areas where production setbacks have occurred, theft of the crop from the field is common, encouraging growers to harvest what little there is of their crop prematurely. While 1999/2000 cannot be considered a particularly bad year for maize, it can be seen as one that suggests that, under the prevailing circumstances, greater consideration should be given to sorghum, especially in Central Region. Average maize yields in Benguela have been significantly boosted by the high yields achieved under irrigation in about 10 000 hectares of the province, which masks the extremely poor yields in the remaining 100 000-odd hectares.

Sorghum yields (national average 0.53 tonnes/hectare) are expected to be similar to those of last year, with only slight increases in some provinces.

Table 1: Angola - Area and production of main cereal crops, 2000

Source: MINADER and Food Security Unit supplemented by Mission estimates.

Cassava yields in the main producing area, Northern Region, are forecast to be higher than last year. The increases are largely due to a perceived under-estimation in previous years but may also be attributed in part to the introduction and distribution of planting material of higher-yielding, faster-maturing (harvestable after six months) varieties. In Central and Southern Regions, where cassava is less important, yields are expected to be similar to those forecast last year. The national average comes to 8.3 tonnes/hectare, up almost 40 percent on last year's figure of just under 6 tonnes/hectare.

Despite excessive rains in December and January, average bean yields are expected to be similar to, or higher than, those of last year except in Malanje and in localized areas elsewhere. The reason for this apparent contradiction is the fact that yields were poor last year. The average in Malanje was reduced by extremely low yields on substantial areas of marginal land allocated to IDPs. The national average yield is expected to be in the region of 0.4 tonnes/hectare.

Table 2: Angola - Area and production of main crops, 2000

* fresh weight
Source: MINADER and Food Security Unit supplemented by Mission estimates.

Table 3: Angola - Production of coarse grains from 1993/94 to 1999/2000 (`000 tonnes)

* including Moxico

Source: MINADER and Food Security Unit supplemented by Mission estimates.

Production forecast

National production figures for sorghum, beans and cassava are expected to be higher this year than last with increases of 3 percent, 11 percent and 42 percent respectively. On the other hand, maize production is forecast to be lower than last year by approximately 8 percent, largely as a result of the climatological and pest setbacks experienced in the Central Region. However, it should be borne in mind that the anticipated production of almost 395 000 tonnes of maize is still substantially above the average for the previous decade of approximately 318 600 tonnes.

Other crops

Substantial increases in national production of potato and Irish potato are expected. The increases are attributable to higher yields in the case of sweet potato, and to both higher yields and an expansion of area in the case of Irish potato. Groundnuts appear to have tolerated the excessive rainfall early in the year, and production is expected to be up on last year. Increases will be due to both higher yields and an expansion of area.

FAO provided seed for approximately 70 hectares of wheat for residents and IDPs in Huambo province. While some fields may achieve yields of over 1 tonnes/hectare others are expected to bring the overall yield down to well below 0.5 tonnes/hectare.

Table 4: Angola - Production of other crops, 2000

1/ Fresh weight.

2/ Shelled.

Source: Field estimates by mission, supplemented by MINADER and Food Security Unit data.

A great variety of food and fruit crops are grown in many parts of the country. These include, among several others, bananas, plantains, mango, avocado, coconut, sugarcane, pigeonpea, amaranths and okra. Where these crops thrive, their contribution to general nutrition appears to be significant.

Livestock situation

In most of the Northern and Central provinces livestock is limited to relatively small numbers of goats, pigs and chickens, largely as a result of the continuing conflict and the consequent risk of theft but also because of the prevalence of tick-borne diseases in these areas. Pigs and small ruminants are especially important in areas of conurbation, as in Luanda province where there are reported to be 5 000 and 30 000 respectively. Of the Northern and Central provinces, only Kwanza Sul is reported to have cattle numbers of any significance (about 45 000 according to MINADER). Luanda, Bengo and Huambo have about 5 000, 4 000 and 6 000 respectively. Pasture conditions in Northern and Central Regions are generally good this year but, as with crop production, poor security precludes the use of much of the potential land. For the same reason, last year's plans to re-introduce animal traction in Bie and Huambo have not been realised

In most of the Southern provinces, cattle numbers are considerably higher than those in the North and Centre, though they are still very much lower than those prior to the escalation of hostilities. 1.2 million are reported in Huila, 1.0 million in Cunene, and 80 000 in Namibe. By contrast, the Central provinces of Benguela and Huambo have 5 000 and 6 000 cattle respectively. Pasture in these provinces is generally satisfactory this year but veterinary services remain inadequate as a result of the conflict.

4. SITUATION BY REGION AND PROVINCE

The mission was able to visit 13 of the country's 18 provinces. Those not visited (marked by an asterisk below) were Cabinda, Zaire, and Lunda Norte in the Northern Region, and Namibe and Cunene in the Southern Region.

Northern Region

Provinces in the Northern Region have two recognised cropping seasons, the first extending from September/October to January and the second starting in February/March.

Cabinda*

Rainfall was reported to be good, and satisfactory maize yields of about 800 kg/hectare are expected. All crop yields are forecast to be slightly higher than last year. This, combined with an expansion of cropped area, should lead to significant production increases.

Zaire*

Areas and yields of maize and beans are expected to show a slight increase on last year. Cassava yields are anticipated to be in the region of 9 tonnes/hectare; this is a big increase on last year's figure of 5.5 tonnes/hectare which was suspected of being an under-estimation.

Uige

Weather conditions in Uige were favourable during the two cropping seasons although excessive rainfall in December-January reduced the first season's groundnut yields. More than 1100mm of rain were recorded in Uige municipality during the September-January season. This was followed by a well-distributed 450-500mm from the beginning of February up to the end of April. Farmers expect higher yields this season than for the corresponding season in 1999, especially for cassava and sweet potato. The increasing use of short-season cassava varieties will also contribute significantly to the province's overall production. Uige produces more cassava than any other province. Uige's inherent fertility and good rainfall support many minor crops, the productivity of which appears - both in the field and from the evidence in the market - to be very satisfactory this year.

Although the number of IDPs has increased during the last year it appears that many of the earlier arrivals have been able to cultivate plots on residents' land, either as tenants in return for labour or produce, or by virtue of being members of a resident farmer's extended family. The generally high fertility of the province's land and the fact that much of the land is in a short fallow cycle should permit further expansion in this direction. MINADER estimates that approximately 54 percent of the province's agricultural land is militarily secure.

Bengo

Rainfall in Bengo province was reported to be at least as good as, or even better than, last year's. Amounts and distribution were near optimal in the first season but there was a slight delay to the beginning of the second season followed by some excessive rainfall. However, the generally favourable rainfall regime and the significant presence of commercial farmers are reflected in the province's very satisfactory production forecast. Maize production in Bengo is expected to show a 45 percent increase this year compared with last, due in part to an expansion of area but mostly to increased yields. At 1.2 tonnes/hectare, Bengo province's mean maize yield is expected to be the highest in the country. Similarly, the province's cassava production is expected to be up about 60 percent on last year's, again due partly to an increase in area but mostly to higher yields. Banana production is important in the province's economy.

Much of the expansion of area under food crops has taken place on land that used to belong to sugarcane and coffee estates. Resident farm families are estimated to cultivate about 2 hectares each, and the average IDP holding is about 0.5 hectares.

The Government and NGOs have distributed more seeds and hand tools this year than last, though some seeds are said to have arrived late.

Luanda

Maize production in Luanda is expected to be down on last year's figure by about 17 percent, with low yields resulting from the late start and erratic pattern of the second rains. Since maize is not very significant in the province the reduction is small in absolute terms. This year, however, is expected to see a doubling of last year's cassava production to over 40 000 tonnes, due almost entirely to yield increases. There have been no reports of significant outbreaks of pests or diseases. Palm oil production is locally important.

Agricultural support projects include the construction, with Government funding, of two irrigation schemes, each of 1 000 hectares. More seeds and hand tools have been distributed this year than last but many farmers reported difficulties in obtaining groundnut and cowpea seed. World Vision distributed cassava planting material. Resident farm families are reckoned to cultivate between 0.5 and 1.0 hectares each. Given the relatively urban nature of the province it is not surprising to find that most IDPs have no access to land other than as hired labourers. Those who have been allocated land by the Government have received parcels of about 0.25 hectares. The main off-farm income-generating activity available to rural people is trading.

Kwanza Norte

The rainfall pattern was considered to be good except for a period of excessive rain during the flowering stage of beans and may have reduced yields by as much as 40-50 percent. Nevertheless, bean yields, at 0.35 tonnes/hectare, are expected to be slightly higher than last year. Maize yields will be slightly lower than last year at 0.7 tonnes/hectare, but the effect of this reduction on overall food crop production will be negligible since maize is a minor crop in the province. Yields of cassava, sweet potato and Irish potato are all expected to show significant increases this year. There has been a slight reduction in the total area of land cultivated this year. Nevertheless, some land distribution was possible, with 13 400 IDP families receiving approximately 0.25 hectares each from the Government. However, much of the land was of poor quality and the yield expectations in such cases are low. Large numbers of hand tools were distributed to IDPs and vulnerable resident farmers. Seed was also distributed but a shortage of maize seed was reported.

Malanje

Rainfall of over 1200 mm since September was fairly well-distributed despite a slightly delayed arrival for the second season at the beginning of March. Yields of beans and groundnuts on resident farms are expected to be normal, but overall mean yields will be depressed by very poor production on land allocated to IDPs, much of which is on infertile mineral soil. Maize production should be similar to last year, as should cassava production despite a slight reduction in area. The food situation in Malanje municipality is somewhat alleviated by the relatively secure road communication between Malanje town and Luanda.

Lunda Norte*

Maize yields are expected to be down slightly on last year as a result of excessively wet conditions. Cassava yields have been adjusted upwards considerably to 10 tonnes/hectare since it was felt that last year's figure of 5.5 tonnes/hectare was an under-estimate.

Lunda Sul

Rainfall in Lunda Sul was satisfactory this year and the availability of seed and hand tools was adequate. There was consequently some expansion of the area of land cultivated. Maize yields are expected to be down slightly on last year's figure, but the yields of cassava, sweet potato and groundnut are all expected to show an increase.

Central Region

The rainfed cropping season in most of Central Region normally starts in September/October and is characterised by a generally short period of reduced rainfall at the end of January and the beginning of February. This is then followed by a resumption of heavier rainfall until April. "Nakas" production (with supplementary irrigation) is important during the five or six months beginning in June in those areas where water is available.

Kwanza Sul

Production levels this year are expected to be similar to last year's. Maize yields in the coastal zone were adversely affected by the late arrival of below-average rainfall. However, normal rainfall was reported in the interior, and this is expected to result in satisfactory maize yields and some surplus cassava production. There have been no significant outbreaks of crop pests or diseases. Fruit production - pineapple and passion fruit - is important in the province.

Agricultural support projects started this year include seed multiplication schemes (maize, beans and groundnuts) and the production and processing of cotton, sunflower and beans. This year the level of provision of seeds and tools by the Government and NGOs to both resident and IDP farm families was above that of last year, but very little fertilizer has been received or used. The allocation of land to IDPs remains inadequate although some longer-established IDP families have managed to acquire areas of up to 1 hectare.

Benguela

Rainfall was normal (most of Benguela is in the low-rainfall zone) over all the province except in two municipalities (Baia Farta and Benguela) where it was lower than usual. The area under maize was similar to last year but in seven out of the nine municipalities yields were uncharacteristically low (locally <100 kg/hectare). The forecast average yield of 0.8 tonnes/hectare has been greatly boosted by the high yields expected in the approximately 10 000 hectares under irrigation. Satisfactory yields of sorghum, beans, groundnuts and sweet potato are expected.

Huambo

The distribution of rainfall in Huambo province in 1999-2000 has not been conducive to high yields. A late start in November was followed by excessive rainfall in December. A short, relatively dry spell is normally expected in January, but this year it extended from January through February to March. Bean yields suffered especially from waterlogging in December and maize yields were put back both by late planting and by the prolonged dry spell. On the other hand, sorghum, being able to cope with more adverse conditions than maize, is expected to yield fairly well. The current circumstances of manual cultivation and input shortages combined with somewhat unreliable rainfall would suggest that sorghum is, at least for the time being, a more appropriate cereal for the area than maize. Although Huambo's maize area increased this year by about 9 percent, production is expected to be down by more than 27 percent. Low yields were exacerbated by an outbreak of stemborers during the prolonged dry spell and by localised Heliothis attacks.

Bie

The area under maize this year in Bie is slightly reduced, reflecting the continuing poor security situation in the province, and yields are expected to be only two-thirds of their level last year. From 54 000 tonnes last year, production this year is expected to fall to just over 35 000 tonnes. Yields are probably lowest, and the resulting food situation most serious around the municipal capital, Kuito, where population is dense. However, in the southern municipality of Chitembo it would appear that maize has done reasonably well this year as some has found its way to markets in Huila province. Sorghum yields, are expected to be satisfactory but the area planted to this crop is relatively small.

Moxico

Rainfall in Moxico was normal in amount and distribution. Farmers complained that hand tools were in short supply. The areas under maize and cassava were both larger this year than last, reflecting an improved security situation. Much of the late-sown maize was attacked by stemborers, and there were localised outbreaks of grasshoppers, which contributed to a slight reduction in expected yield compared with last year. Cassava production is forecast to rise this year by about 37 percent as a result of more planting and higher yields.

Southern Region

The Southern Region is characterised by a single cropping season.

Namibe*

Average maize yields were poor last year in Namibe. With better rainfall in this part of the country this year, yields of about 0.6 tonnes/hectare are expected.

Huila

A delayed start to the rains was followed by excessive rainfall and some flooding. Some farmers in Huila use fertilizer, and satisfactory average maize and sorghum, similar to those of last year (0.7 and 0.6 tonnes/hectare respectively), are expected. Some stemborer damage was noted. The security situation is sufficiently stable to allow a cattle population of some 1.2 million.

Cunene*

Security conditions in Cunene were reported to be relatively good, allowing a cattle population of about one million. The province had not been visited by the Food Security Unit since December 1999; however, on the basis of past production figures and rainfall reports it is anticipated that crop production will be very similar to last year.

Cuanda Cubango

Heavy rains occurred throughout the province at the end of March, but these were preceded, in many areas, by a long dry spell from late December to early February. Much of the maize crop was attacked by stemborers, but overall average yield is estimated to be in the region of 0.6 tonnes/hectare. There was no distribution of seed or hand tools this year. The area under maize is down on last year, while that under sorghum is up. Coarse grain production is expected to be slightly lower than last year.

5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

Access to food and prices

Angola used to be self-sufficient in major food crops, and even a net exporter of such staples as maize. However, the protracted civil strife has now forced the country to import over half of its basic food requirements, notably through food aid. The Mission observed that although a few isolated provincial markets such as Luena in Moxico and Lubango in Huila appeared to be supplied with local produce in significant quantities, in most places imported commodities predominated, accounting for up to 90 percent of the market food supply. This was the case in Lobito, Ganda ( Bengula province), and in Menongue (Cuando Cubango). This underscores the scarcity of marketable surplus of local produce, and the acute food insecurity of the populations, IDPs and residents alike. The Mission reckons that in many cereal producing regions, farm families' production does not last for more than six months. Additionally, pervasive insecurity has restricted coping mechanisms for the war-affected population.

The war-battered infrastructure with many roads having become impassable, airstrips in need of repair, and the widespread insecurity in most parts of the country have exacerbated market fragmentation and hindered food commodity trade between surplus and deficit areas. Hence the wide differentials in food prices from one province to another as shown in Table 5. For instance, the price of 1 kg of maize grain was 0.5 Kwanza (KZ) in Malange and 1.9 KZ in Huila in April 2000, or nearly 4 times as much, although Huila is also a maize producing province. During the same period, cassava flour sold for 1.5 KZ/kg in Malange and more than 3 KZ/kg in Cunene and Namibe. This is the reason why the increased cassava production in the northern provinces in 2000 may not translate into a substantial increase in the distribution and consumption of that commodity in other parts of the country.

Besides hurting the consumer by restricting supply and distribution of food commodities with attendant high prices in deficit areas, severe market fragmentation can also lead to depressed prices in surplus areas, thereby discouraging local production.

Table 5: Angola - Market prices in April 2000 (KZ/kg)

1/ KZ/litre.

In some localities such as in Cunene (see Chart 1 below), food commodity prices appear to have been relatively stable during the period April 1999 - April 2000, except for beans which exhibit a sharp price increase in September 1999 and, to some extent, vegetable oil whose prices are marked by an upward trend during the same period.

For Moxico (see Chart 2 below), maize, rice and bean prices have been relatively stable during the April 1999-April 2000 period. This is probably due to the fact that the province is a major producer of these crops. But the sharp differences in the price of beans between Cunene (about 2 US$/kg) and Moxico (around 75 US cents/kg) in September 1999 highlight again the market segmentation and its adverse effect on prices and consumer welfare.

Prices of vegetable oil and sugar have tended to be more erratic in Moxico, perhaps reflecting large variations in imports of these commodities into the province. But whatever the price level, the low and declining purchasing power of most Angolans, and particularly the acute deprivation of the displaced population, severely restrict access of the poor to basic foodstuffs.

Source: Derived from WFP Angola Office: Pre-Mission Report.

Cereal supply/demand balance, 2000/2001

The forecast of the cereal supply/demand situation for the 2000/2001 marketing year, summarised in Table 6 below, is based on the following assumptions and Mission observations:

• Traders interviewed by the mission in Luanda and Lubango stated that they kept limited stocks of cereal for no more than 3 months after harvest. Therefore, as in previous assessments, it has been assumed that the opening stock is zero.
• On the demand side, national cereal consumption requirement has been calculated on the basis of IOM estimates of the mid-marketing-year population of 13.675 million, and an annual per caput cereal consumption of 85 kg².
• "Other uses" includes on-farm retention of seed for the next planting (13 000 tonnes), post-harvest losses of 15 percent of production, animal feed of 7 000 tonnes (MINADER's estimate).

Figures for cassava have been included in the table to show the relative importance of this crop vis-à-vis cereals, even though it is largely produced and consumed in the north of the country.

Table 6: Angola - Cereal supply/demand balance sheet, 2000/2001 (`000 tonnes)