FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.1 - February 2001 p. 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000	2000/01 forecast	Change 2000/01 over 1999/2000
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	588	613	599	591	586	-0.8
Coarse grains	920	905	911	886	869	-2.0
Rice, milled	383	387	390	408	397	-2.7
(paddy)	(572)	(579)	(584)	(611)	(594)	-2.8
All cereals (incl. milled rice)	1 891	1 906	1 900	1 885	1 852	-1.8
Developing countries	1 025	1 005	1 040	1 037	996	-4.0
Developed countries	866	900	860	848	856	0.9
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	103	101	100	109	108	-1.2
Coarse grains	91	89	94	103	105	1.7
Rice (milled)	19	28	25	22	23	3.4
All cereals	212	218	219	235	236	0.5
Developing countries	150	160	160	169	168	-0.5
Developed countries	62	59	59	66	68	3.2
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	5.6	6.2	11.0	10.2	10.0	-2.2
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	575	592	591	597	606	1.5
Coarse grains	890	889	891	897	899	0.2
Rice (milled)	378	381	389	404	405	0.2
All cereals	1 843	1 862	1 872	1 898	1 909	0.6
Developing countries	1 101	1 106	1 130	1 152	1 157	0.5
Developed countries	742	756	741	746	752	0.8
Per Caput Food Use	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Developing countries	167	167	168	168	168	0.0
Developed countries	130	130	130	130	131	0.7
WORLD STOCKS 4/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	232	254	260	256	239	-6.7
Coarse grains	250	268	285	273	246	-9.8
Rice (milled)	151	152	156	162	155	-4.6
All cereals	634	675	700	691	640	-7.5
Developing countries	512	507	525	529	487	-8.0
Developed countries	122	168	175	162	153	-5.6
EXPORT PRICES 5/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	352	316	315	253	207	-18.2
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	181	142	120	112	126 6/	13.3 7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	135	112	95	91	85 6/	-4.6 7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	12.8	11.7	9.3	13.7	15.3 6/	16.0 7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	(. . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . )
Roots & tubers production 1/	377	362	387	402	398	-1.0
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/	790	774	799	806	761	-5.6
Per caput production (kg.) 9/	224	216	219	218	203	-6.7
Cereal imports 2/	67.3	76.7	69.7	70.9	69.8	-1.7
of which: Food aid	4.5	5.3	7.9	6.8	7.5	10.6
Proportion of cereal import	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
covered by food aid	6.7	6.9	11.3	9.6	10.8

SOURCE: FAO

Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.

1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.

2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.

3/ July/June shipments.

4/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.

5/ July/June.

6/ Average of quotations for July 2000-January 2001.

7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.

8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. U.S.$ 1 460 in 1998), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.

9/ Including milled rice.