FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1996/97	1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000		2000/01 forecast	Change 2000/01 over 1999/2000
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )						(percentage)
Wheat	588	613	598		591	585	-1.1
Coarse grains	920	905	912		887	870	-1.8
Rice, milled	383	387	390		408	399	-2.3
(paddy)	(572)	(579)	(584)		(611)	(596)	-2.5
All cereals (incl. milled rice)	1 891	1 906	1 901		1 887	1 854	-1.7
Developing countries	1 025	1 005	1 040		1 038	998	-3.9
Developed countries	866	900	860		848	856	1.0
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	103	102	99		109	107	-2.0
Coarse grains	91	89	93		104	104	0.0
Rice (milled)	19	28	25		22	22	-0.7
All cereals	212	219	216		235	233	-1.0
Developing countries	150	160	158		170	167	-1.9
Developed countries	62	59	58		65	66	1.3
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	5.6	6.2	11.0		10.2	10.0	-2.2
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	575	592	591		597	601	0.7
Coarse grains	889	891	891		898	898	-0.1
Rice (milled)	378	381	390		405	408	0.6
All cereals	1 843	1 864	1 872		1 901	1 907	0.3
Developing countries	1 101	1 108	1 130		1 154	1 155	0.1
Developed countries	742	756	742		747	752	0.6
Per Caput Food Use	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Developing countries	168	167	168		169	169	-0.2
Developed countries	130	130	130		130	131	1.0
WORLD STOCKS 4/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	232	255	260		257	243	-5.4
Coarse grains	252	267	284		275	249	-9.5
Rice (milled)	152	152	156		161	153	-5.1
All cereals	635	675	700		693	645	-7.0
Developing countries	513	506	525		529	487	-7.9
Developed countries	122	168	175		165	158	-4.0
EXPORT PRICES 5/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	352	316	315		253	207	-18.2
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	181	142	120		112	127 ^6/	14.4 ^7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	135	112	95		91	87 ^6/	-4.2 ^7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	12.8	11.7	9.3		13.7	15.0 ^6/	16.1 ^7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Roots & tubers production 1/	377	368	387		393	401	2.0
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/	790	771	800		806	763	-5.3
Per caput production (kg.) 9/	224	215	220		218	204	-6.4
Cereal imports 2/	67.4	76.7	69.3		70.6	68.3	-3.3
of which: Food aid	4.5	5.3	7.9		6.8	7.5	10.6
Proportion of cereal import	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
covered by food aid	6.7	6.9	11.4		9.6	11.0

Source: FAO

Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.

1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June shipments.
4/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
5/ July/June.
6/ Average of quotations for July 2000-March 2001.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 460 in 1998), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.
9/ Including milled rice.

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.2 - April 2001 p. 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION