FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.3

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000	2000/2001	2001/02 forecast	Change 2001/02 over 2000/2001
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	613	598	592	587	577	-1.6
Coarse grains	903	913	887	868	905	4.2
Rice, milled	387	390	409	398	396	-0.6
(paddy)	(579)	(584)	(611)	(595)	(592)	-0.5
All cereals (incl. milled rice)	1 903	1 902	1 888	1 853	1 878	1.3
Developing countries	1 003	1 042	1 039	997	1 018	2.1
Developed countries	900	860	848	857	860	0.5
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	102	99	110	105	105	-0.9
Coarse grains	89	96	102	106	102	-3.4
Rice (milled)	28	25	22	22	23	1.7
All cereals	219	219	235	233	229	-1.8
Developing countries	160	161	170	170	169	-0.4
Developed countries	59	58	64	64	60	-5.5
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	6.2	11.3	11.1	10.0
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	592	593	596	598	600	0.3
Coarse grains	891	892	895	900	909	0.9
Rice (milled)	381	390	404	407	410	0.6
All cereals	1 864	1 874	1 895	1 906	1 919	0.7
Developing countries	1 108	1 130	1 150	1 156	1 164	0.8
Developed countries	756	744	745	750	754	0.5
Per Caput Food Use	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Developing countries	167	168	169	168	168	0.0
Developed countries	131	131	131	132	132	0.3
WORLD STOCKS 4/	(. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . million tonnes . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	256	260	258	246	221	-10.0
Coarse grains	269	286	277	247	242	-2.3
Rice (milled)	152	156	162	154	140	-9.1
All cereals	678	702	698	647	603	-6.8
Developing countries	509	528	534	487	451	-7.4
Developed countries	169	174	164	160	152	-5.0
EXPORT PRICES 5/	(. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	316	315	253	207	179^6/	-22.2^7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	142	120	112	128^8/		14.8^7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	112	95	91	87^8/		-5.3^7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	11.7	9.3	13.7	15.0^8/		16.1^7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . )
Roots & tubers production 1/	368	387	393	400
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/	779	809	814	770	783	1.6
Per caput production (kg.) 10/	215	219	217	203	204	0.6
Cereal imports 2/	79.2	73.2	74.5	72.2	73.7	2.1
of which: Food aid	5.5	8.4	7.5	7.7
Proportion of cereal import	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
covered by food aid	6.9	11.5	10.1	10.7

Source: FAO
Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.

1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown.
2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown.
3/ July/June shipments.
4/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years.
5/ July/June.
6/ Average of quotations for January-May 2001.
7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown.
8/ Average of quotations for July 2000-May 2001.
9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 445 in 1999), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid.
10/ Including milled rice.

FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.3 - June 2001 p. 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION