FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO ANGOLA

19 June 2001

Mission Highlights 1. OVERVIEW 2. BACKGROUND AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2000/2001 3.1 Cropping patterns 3.2 Rainfall 3.3 Input supplies 3.4 Area planted 3.5 Crop yields 3.6 Crop production forecast 2000/01 3.7 Livestock 4. SITUATION BY REGION AND PROVINCE 4.1 Northern Region 4.2 Central Region 4.3 Southern Region 5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION 5.1 Access to food and prices 5.2 Cereal supply/demand balance, 2001/2002 6. EMERGENCY FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENT

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Angola from 5-27 May 2001 to estimate crop production from the 2000/01 season, as well as the cereal import requirements and food aid needs in the 2001/02 marketing year (April/March). Following briefings by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINADER) and Ministry of Social Assistance and Reintegration (MINARS), the Mission made field visits to 8 out of the 18 provinces, accompanied by officials from MINADER and observers from the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), the European Union (EU) and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA). Detailed planning of the Mission, preparatory documents and other background information were provided by the FAO-supported Food Security Unit in MINADER, the Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping (VAM) Unit of the WFP Office in Angola, and WFP sub-offices in the provinces. Plans had been made to visit 10 provinces, but the security situation was very fluid and they had to be changed at the last minute. Finally, a de-briefing meeting was held at MINADER to present the findings of the Mission.

The security situation has somewhat improved, as the Government has military control of all provincial and most municipal centres, with an expansion of the secure areas around the provincial capitals. However, UNITA is still mounting guerrilla attacks in many areas and thereby restricting areas where Government, aid agencies and NGOs can operate to the areas immediately surrounding the administrative centres. Most food aid and essential commodities have still to be transported by air from Luanda. Insecurity and poor conditions of roads continue to disrupt marketing activities. Although very few IDPs have been able to return to their original homes, there has been good progress in allocating land to them within the secure areas. Some 218 000 IDPs and returnees have been recorded as being active in farming during the 2000/01 season. New IDPs are still arriving and the current estimate of IDP numbers is reported to be 2.7 million compared with 2.6 million last year. About 1.34 million people are still in need of food aid.

The area planted to coarse grains in the 2000/01 season is estimated at 995 000 hectares, an increase of 13 percent from 1999/00. Output is estimated at 577 000 tonnes, against 500 000 tonnes last season. The increase in production is largely attributed to higher sowings, as a result of improved security conditions at planting time; allocation of land to IDPs and natural increase of population as well as improved agricultural input distribution. In spite of a severe mid-season dry spell in northern areas, weather conditions were generally favourable in the main cereal growing areas of the centre and south. Maize harvest is estimated at 429 000 tonnes, 9 percent above last year's level, with larger plantings partially offset by crop losses in the northern provinces. Millet and sorghum combined estimate, at 148 000 tonnes, is up by nearly 30 percent. This reflects a sharp increase in the area planted and the effect of good rains in the south. The bean crop is estimated at 70 000 tonnes, down 10 percent from last year, also as a result of dry spells in the north. Cassava estimate for 2000/01 is 5.3 million tonnes compared to 4.4 million tonnes in the previous year, due to higher plantings and yields.

The overall food supply position is expected to improve in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) reflecting the improved foodcrops production. Prices of maize are stable or declining with the arrival of the new crop into the markets. However, as a result of the disruption of trade activities, there are large price differentials among markets. Despite the better production this year and the reduction in numbers of IDPs requiring assistance, there are still 1.34 million IDPs in need of emergency food aid in 2001/02. While the food situation of these populations remains extremely serious, food aid distributions continue to be constrained by insecurity and poor road conditions.

The food deficit in marketing year 2001/02 is estimated lower than in the previous year at 581 000 tonnes of cereals. This includes 48 000 tonnes of maize, 107 000 tonnes of rice and 250 000 tonnes of wheat. Commercial imports are forecast at 405 000 tonnes of cereals, leaving 176 000 tonnes to be covered by food aid. Against this requirement, pledges and food aid in stocks until the end of May amounted to 33 000 tonnes.

2. BACKGROUND AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING ¹

Angola has a total area of 1.247 million square kilometres and an estimated population of 13.7 million. The country is endowed with substantial natural resources, including extensive reserves of oil and gas, valuable minerals, particularly diamonds, and an important hydroelectric capacity from numerous rivers. It has a vast agricultural potential with fertile soils in the northern region and the central highlands, where normal rainfall exceed 1000 millimetres. Livestock is predominant in the southern region, which receives lower rainfall, and is also less populated than the other regions. The country enjoys vast marine and river resources, particularly fisheries as well as an extensive forestry sector.

However, the Angolan society in general has so far gained little benefit from these resources, having a very high and increasing percentage of its population living below the poverty line, particularly in urban areas. The wealth is concentrated within 10 percent of the population whose income has increased by 43 percent between 1995 and 1998, unlike that of the rest. The civil war that began after independence in 1975 continues to affect wide areas of the country. Besides this major factor, loose and inappropriate monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to social and economic instability, with inflation reaching a year-end rate of 268 percent in 2000.

Under a self-monitored programme with the IMF, the Government of Angola is committed to wide ranging reforms aimed at promoting macroeconomic stabilisation and fiscal transparency, reducing poverty and ending the state interventions in the market that cause economic distortions and inefficiencies. Main reforms would include modernisation of the country's tax system and customs service, reinvigoration of the Government accounts tribunal and privatisation of several state-owned companies. So far the implementation of the programme is very uneven with poor monetary and fiscal controls being enforced. However, the Government is improving the transparency in state affairs, in particular by co-operating with a diagnostic study of the oil sector as agreed with the IMF.

Real GDP has grown during the last five years though the rate of growth declined steadily between 1996 and 1999 from 11.7 percent to 2.7 percent. It, however, recovered in 2000 to 4.9 percent. Total oil production is not expected to change in 2001 so it is expected that the rate of real GDP growth will be just over 2 percent. This oil driven growth is capital intensive and import dependent with few linkages to other sectors of the economy or effects on employment. On the other hand, in spite of its relative minor contribution to GDP (less than 7 percent) compared to oil (61 percent) and mining (9 percent), the agriculture sector has a great potential for providing employment to most rural population and in securing food supplies.

Prior to independence in 1975 food production was abundant and the country was a major exporter of maize and coffee. Cassava is the main food staple in the north/north-east and maize in the central highlands, while millet and sorghum are the most important crops in the dry southern region. Livestock are of great significance in Angola, with more than 3 million heads of cattle. Because of the war situation, the country has for the past several years relied on food imports -both commercial imports of wheat and rice, and food aid in maize and beans- to meet domestic requirements. In most of the conflict areas agriculture has fallen to an almost subsistence level, with little or no marketable surplus and very limited trade activity.

The Government and NGOs are making a great effort to provide the displaced rural population with enough land and inputs. Even if self-sufficiency is not often attained amongst displaced populations, due to the lack of access to sufficient agriculture land and timely agricultural inputs, some 218 000 IDPs -out of a total 2.7 million- have been resettled.

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2000/2001

3.1 Cropping patterns

The estimated proportion of land under the major food crops, maize, millet/sorghum and cassava, in each of the regions is: 10 percent, less than 1 percent and 59 percent respectively in the north; 50 percent, 8 percent and 11 percent in central parts; 35 percent, 42 percent and 6 percent in southern areas. However, variations between individual provinces within each region can be significant for some crops and this has been taken into account in the crop area estimates. Maize production is concentrated in a few provinces in the centre of the country, with three provinces (Huambo, Benguela and Bie) accounting for at least 40 percent of total production.

Although the Mission was able to visit only 8 of the 18 provinces, it covered the three main agricultural zones. The Mission visited Malanje and Lunda Sul in the north and Moxico in the northeast, where the main food crop is cassava. In the central region, the main maize growing area, the Mission visited Bie, Huambo and Benguela. In the south, where sorghum and millet predominate and livestock is important, Huila and Kunene were visited.

Other important crops include beans, groundnuts, sweet potatoes, rice and Irish potatoes. Cowpeas may be included in bean plantings. Mixed cropping is the norm and it is usual to find maize and beans growing with groundnuts, cassava and sweet potatoes. Maize is not always consumed as processed grain, especially in much of the cassava dominated northern provinces where it is traditionally eaten green. In the south, a major part of the sorghum crop grown is used for making beer and non-alcoholic drinks.

Vegetable production (tomatoes, onions, cabbage, peppers, carrots, pumpkin) is important, particularly in low-lying areas (nakas) where water for irrigation can be found during the dry season. Important green foods include cassava leaves, pumpkin leaves, hibiscus leaves and amaranthus leaves, which may also be dried for storage or marketed. Bananas, mangoes, pineapple, citrus fruits, passion fruit, tobacco and sugarcane are all grown as food and cash crops.

3.2 Rainfall

Rainfall in Angola ranges from as little as 20 mm on the south-west coast up to as much as 2000 mm in parts of the north-east, with the major crop producing areas of central Angola receiving around 1200- 1400 mm. There are two rainy seasons in the North and Centre regions: September-December and February-April. In the south, however, there is only one season starting from October. In the 2000/01 season, accumulated rainfall has been overall satisfactory but poorly distributed.

In the North, the rainy season started about a month late, so that most crops were planted in October/November instead of September/October. Crops, particularly maize and beans, were then too immature to survive a subsequent dry spell in December/January. Even cassava failed to establish with the first rains. Heavy rains during March/April allowed late cassava planting and when the Mission visited the northern provinces in May farmers were still planting, relying on dew to keep the cassava cuttings alive through the dry season.

In the Central Provinces, there was a slight delay in the beginning of the rainy season. Precipitation was generally erratic and below normal in October and November. However, the situation improved from December when abundant and well-distributed rains were received.

Most southern provinces did not receive enough rain to start planting until the end of October. However, sowing in these areas is later than in the rest of the country, going until December, so that no reductions in the area planted were experienced. Rains from November were good, benefiting crop establishment and development. Excessive precipitation in March and April, however, caused localized flooding and crop damage.

3.3 Input supplies

The supply of seeds, tools and fertilisers to farmers and IDPs was a major and generally very successful exercise in the 2000/01 cropping season, involving 27 NGOs. More seeds, tools and fertilisers were supplied by the Government through the National Programme for Emergency and Humanitarian Assistance (PNEAH).

The main seed types distributed were maize (2 926 metric tonnes), beans (752 metric tonnes), cowpeas (319 metric tonnes), millet (313 metric tonnes), sorghum (464 metric tonnes) and groundnuts (695 metric tonnes), totalling 5 472 tonnes. In addition, 5.4 million cassava cuttings and approximately 700 kg of vegetable seeds were also distributed. Input distributions included also 426 307 hoes, 151 179 machetes, 99 305 axes and 1 539 tonnes of fertilizers.

By the end of December 2000 a total of 294 880 families had been assisted by NGOs, including 83 200 non-resettled IDP families.

The total quantities of seeds distributed by the Government and NGOs for the 2000/01 cropping season were substantially higher than those distributed in the previous year, when logistic difficulties also resulted in delayed distributions.

3.4 Area planted

The total area planted in the 2000/01 season is estimated at 2.2 million hectares, compared with 1.7 million hectares in 1999/00. This significant expansion is due to a number of factors, in particular the improved security situation and better access to land, the resettlement of IDPs, the greatly enhanced supply of seeds and tools, and the natural increase in population. With the improvement in the security situation last year, the Government expanded its programme to resettle IDPs on land within the secure areas of each province for the season 2000/01. Table 1 shows the total area cultivated by resident farming families and IDPs as at 31 December 2000. The national average area cultivated by 431 854 IDPs is 0.58 hectares per family, against 1.54 hectares for resident farmers. Virtually every IDP family, resettled or not, is likely to be cultivating some patch of land, even if it is just the land around their huts. However, it does appear that in some provinces the actual resettled areas might be less than the official figures. In view of the lack of verifiable information to the contrary, the original reported area has been used in these estimates.

Improved security at planting time also meant an expansion of areas and better cultivation by those IDPs who had already a limited access to their lands (fields around the towns).

As mentioned above, the large distributions of agricultural inputs to IDPs and settled farmers by the Government and NGOs was another important factor for the increase in the area planted this season.

Plantings of maize in the 2000/01 season are estimated at 755 261 hectares, an increase of 10 percent from 1999/00. The area planted to sorghum and millet increased by 21 percent to 239 520 hectares, while that of cassava is estimated to be 4 percent larger at 558 000 hectares. Tables 2 and 3 give the details by province.

Table 1. Area Under Cultivation in 2000/01

3.5 Crop yields

The crops of maize, beans and groundnuts that were planted in the northern provinces of Malanje, Lunda Norte, Lunda Sul, Kuanza Sul and Moxico in central parts, were severely affected by a prolonged dry spell in December/January. Although replanting took place in several areas, yields were in general sharply reduced by the dry weather. Yields of beans were also adversely affected. By contrast, in the main grain growing provinces of Huambo (centre) and Huila (south), maize and millet yield estimates are up on last year in view of the particularly good rainfall conditions. In the other important maize growing province of Benguela (centre) yields are lower than last year reflecting the effect of the flooding which damaged large areas of the crop. The delayed start of the rains in the southern provinces of Kunene and Kuando Kubango did not have negative effects on the area planted and the subsequent good precipitation benefited crop development. Yields of grains in the south are around the level of the previous year, despite localized flood damage in March/April.

Provincial variations and the effects of mid-season dry spell and flooding have been taken into account in the yield calculations shown in Table 2 and 3. Overall, average yields are estimated at 0.57 tonne/hectare for maize, virtually unchanged from last year; 0.62 tonne/hectare for millet and sorghum, against 0.53 tonne/hectare last season; and 0.3 tonne/hectare for beans, below last year's level of 0.4 tonne/hectare.

Cassava crop, most resistant to dry weather was not affected by the dry spell in the main growing northern areas.

3.6 Crop production forecast 2000/01

The maize harvest for the 2000/01 season is estimated at 429 000 tonnes, 9 percent higher than last year. An increase of 12 percent in the area planted was partially offset by crop losses in northern provinces. Millet and sorghum, estimated at 148 000 tonnes, are up by 40 percent reflecting a sharp increase in the area planted and the effect of good rains in the south. In aggregate, coarse grain production increased 15 percent to 577 000 tonnes, which is above the average of the past five years. The bean crop is estimated at 71 000 tonnes, down by 10 percent on last year, also as a result of dry spells in the north. Cassava production for 2000/01 is estimated at 5.3 million tonnes compared with 4.4 million tonnes in the previous year, due to higher planting and yields.

Production of groundnuts and sweet potatoes is shown in Table 3. The sharp increase in the outputs mainly reflects the substantial increases in the area planted.

Table 2. Areas, Yields and Production of Main Cereal Crops in 2000/01

Source: MINADER Food Security Unit (Gabinete de Seguranca Alimentar - (GSA), with maize yield adjustments by mission to allow for crop failures as a result of drought and flooding in some provinces.

Table 3. Areas, Yields and Production of Other Main Crops 2000/01

Sources: MINADER Food Security Unit (Gabinete de Seguranca Alimentar - (GSA), with yield adjustments by mission (italics) to allow for crop failures as a result of drought and flooding in some provinces and for more realistic cassava yields.

Table 4 and Figure 1 show the trend in cereal production from 1993/94 to 1999/2000 and the forecast for 2000/01. Although production has fluctuated markedly, the figure indicates a rising trend.

Table 4. Production of Coarse Grains from 1993/94 to 2000/01 (`000 tonnes)

3.7 Livestock

The livestock industry has been decimated in the main areas of conflict, apart from backyard chickens, pigs and goats, but the Mission observed a healthy cattle population in Kunene in the south. Hunting, fishing and the gathering of caterpillars and other bush products provide alternative sources of animal protein, as well as being marketable and important coping mechanisms. Following the abundant rains of this season in the south, pastures and livestock conditions were generally good.

4. SITUATION BY REGION AND PROVINCE

There are 18 provinces in Angola and this year security considerations restricted the field visit programme of the Mission to only 8 of them. The provinces visited were Malanje, Lunda Sul, Bie, Huambo, Benguela, Moxico, Kunene and Huila. The Food Security Unit of MINADER, WFP/VAM and the offices of NGOs, which have projects in the provinces, provided information on the situation in other provinces.

4.1 Northern Region

The northern region is comprised of nine provinces and is the main cassava producing area of Angola. Rainfall was poorly distributed and a widespread drought affected most of the region and influenced significantly the yields of the crops in the first planting season. Despite the improvement in the security situation last year, a number of important insecurity incidents have occurred in the region as a whole. In fact, two of the provinces the Mission intended to visit had to be omitted because of attacks in May.

Cabinda

Some 24 000 farming families are estimated to be active in Cabinda this season and they are expected to be cultivating around 31 000 hectares. Cassava is the main staple and production of 175 000 tonnes is forecast. Groundnuts are an important cash crop. There is no security problem with UNITA in Cabinda and the actions of the separation movement (FLEC) do not seem to have adversely affected agricultural activities.

Zaire

In 2000/01 Zaire province had 47 000 families in agriculture, cultivating 47 000 hectares. Cassava is also the main food crop here and production is forecast at 324 000 tonnes. Secure areas tend to be near to the coast.

Uige

Uige has an estimated 171 000 farming families with 237 000 hectares under cultivation. Cassava is the main staple and production is forecast at 1.7 million tonnes for 2001. Maize and groundnuts are also important and 8 000 tonnes is the estimated production for maize with 3 000 tonnes for groundnuts. Bananas and sweet potatoes are also important. Rainfall was reported to have been poorly distributed and below normal in total. Most municipalities are still unsafe and there is a continuing flow of IDPs to safer areas.

Bengo

Around 40 000 families are engaged in agriculture, with 42 000 hectares of land. Production levels of 4 000 tonnes of maize and 233 000 tonnes of cassava are forecast. Sweet potatoes, beans and vegetables are also important. There are a number of commercial farms in operation and irrigation is quite extensive. NGOs distributed hand tools and seed of maize, beans and groundnut. The mission was expected to visit Bengo but a UNITA attack on the town of Caxito, which resulted in many casualties occurred early in May and the field visit was cancelled. Previously there had been substantial inflows of new IDPs to Caxito from Nambuangongo.

Luanda

The capital city province is not a major agricultural area but 8 500 families are in farming and are estimated to cultivate 9 500 hectares of land. Annual rainfall is normally low in this area and irrigation is important. The number of commercial farmers is significant. The season was normal and the forecast production for 2000/01 is just under 1000 tonnes of maize, 800 tonnes of beans and 48 000 tonnes of cassava. There was no seed or tools distribution in the province.

Kuanza Norte

The farming population numbers 68 000 families, cultivating 84 000 hectares. Forecast production of the main crops is 3 000 tonnes of maize, 2 000 tonnes of beans and 482 000 tonnes of cassava. The second planting season was better than the first one due to better rains. Since December, a number of security incidents have affected Ndalatando, the Provincial capital and the municipalities northwest of the Province. The security situation has since deteriorated more seriously with a UNITA attack on 21^st May on a municipality only 50 km from the provincial capital. Several NGO's were active in the area and WVI reported 10 of its personnel missing after the action.

Malanje

Around 138 000 families are estimated to be farming on 163 000 hectares of land. The staple crop of cassava is forecast to produce 946 000 tonnes this year. Ten IDP resettlement camps have been established within the secure zone around the town of Malanje but the average size of plots is only 0.15 has per family, apparently due to a combination of difficulty in obtaining enough suitable land from local residents, and shortages of seed and cuttings, particularly cassava cuttings. The rainy season started late in October instead of September and was poorly distributed. WVI is carrying out an impressive range of trials and seed/cuttings multiplication on traditional crops as well as sesame and sunflower, with varieties from various SADC countries. Shortage of firewood and damage to the environment is a major problem. In addition to local tree species, 4 000 hectares of eucalyptus forest around Malanje are said to have been destroyed for firewood and charcoal.

Lunda Norte

Around 58 000 families are estimated to be growing crops this year on 43 000 hectares of land. Reports suggest that the first planted crops of maize, beans and groundnuts were affected by the mid-season drought, but the cassava planting is likely to produce 263 000 tonnes later in the year.

Lunda Sul

Lunda Sul is affected by the diamond mining business, which attracts young men off the land. 44 000 farming families are estimated to be cultivating 41 000 hectares of land. As in Malanje and Lunda Norte the early plantings succumbed to drought but the cassava crop was looking promising at the time of the visit and is forecast at 243 000 tonnes.

4.2 Central Region

The central region includes five provinces and is the main maize producing area of Angola. About 60 percent of the 2000/2001 cereal production in the country is expected from this region. Rainfall was good overall, although excessive rains late in the season caused flooding, particularly in Benguela Province. The security situation has shown significant improvement in the region with substantial traffic of people and goods within the region and, to some extent, towards the southern region.

Kuanza Sul

The number of families in farming here is estimated to be 98 000, cultivating 146 000 hectares. As with the northern provinces the first planted crops were a virtual write-off because of the drought, but the problem was also compounded by excessive rains and flooding which finished off the little that has survived. Cassava planting in the second rains was considerable and 208 000 tonnes of cassava is the forecast production for the year. According to Africare, resettled IDPs were allocated 0.5 hectare of land per family. Apart form Sumbe, the provincial capital, the only safe municipalities are Seles, Porto Amboin and Conda. Coping mechanisms in the littoral include firewood collection, charcoal making, hunting, fishing, casual labour and collection and selling of stones for construction.

Benguela

Around 165 000 farming families are estimated to be cultivating 207 000 hectares of land this season. Maize crops looked good, in spite of some flood losses and the forecast production is 64 500 tonnes, with millet/sorghum at 18 500 tonnes and cassava at 43 400 tonnes. Following security improvement the traffic from Lobito or Benguela to Bie Province was re-opened. Cubal and Ganda municipalities are connected through military convoys. More agricultural hand tools, seeds and fertilizers were distributed than last year although there were delays in distribution. Land allocated to IDPs in the irrigated perimeter in the littoral was on average 0.25 hectare per family, while in the interior ranged from 0.25 to 0.5 hectare per family.

The population is increasingly growing more sorghum, as this crop is more tolerant to drought. Both in the littoral and interior zones, there are ongoing programmes of rehabilitation and expansion of irrigation schemes.

Huambo

The number of families in agriculture is estimated to be 273 000 cultivating 419 000 hectares of land. Rainfall was good and crop production is estimated to be better than in previous years at 155 000 tonnes of maize, 25 000 tonnes of millet/sorghum, 20 000 tonnes of beans and 109 000 tonnes of cassava. The security situation has improved and currently five municipalities (Huambo, Caala, Longonjo, Ukuma and Ekunhas) are being directly covered by humanitarian activities and there is a plan to start activities in Bailundo. There were significant improvements in terms of timeliness, suitability and quantities in the distribution of agricultural hand tools, seed and fertilizers and the planted area of sorghum, as a drought tolerant crop, was increased in the Province, particularly in the southern zone. The Mission saw small areas of wheat and CONCERN reported that it is involved in the introduction of soybean. Beans yields were affected by aphids (30-35percent-yield reduction). There is also an increase in the areas of sweet potato.

Bie

The estimated number of farmers in Bie is 170 000 and their land area is 200 000 hectares. A maize output of 49 000 tonnes is predicted, plus 12 800 tonnes of beans, 1 800 tonnes of groundnuts and 182 500 tonnes of cassava. The safety perimeter around Bie has expanded and the number of IDPs has increased in Kuito Municipality because of access to humanitarian assistance. The malnutrition situation in Kuito is said to be very bad with constant arrivals of new IDPs, who are often in very poor condition. 5 children and 3 adults are reported to be dying every day from malnutrition (Africare). Rains were better compared to last year, although they started late. Land distribution to IDPs has improved; 0.5 hectares per IDP family was allocated in Kuito. It was reported that some IDPs have planted part of the seeds distributed by NGO's (for instance, CARE) in the municipalities they came from and, alternatively, in land they got on their own elsewhere in Kuito surroundings. In overall terms, a better harvest compared to last year is expected in the Province.

Moxico

Moxico has an estimated 69 000 farmers and 73 500 hectares of land. No maize was seen by the Mission, having apparently died from drought or been destroyed by excessively heavy late rains. Rainfall was good in total but poorly distributed. The same happened to the beans and groundnuts, but cassava plantings were extensive and cassava is traditionally the main staple food crop of the province. Production is forecast at 211 000 tonnes for harvest in 2001. Access is very difficult because of the high security risk but, at least in the capital Luena, land allocation and input supply were better compared to last year.

4.3 Southern Region

The region is comprised of four provinces and is the main millet and sorghum producing area. This is the driest area of Angola. Rainfall in 2000/2001 started late but was then abundant. In the main producing province of Huila the intensity and frequency of the precipitation were favourable to crop development. Elsewhere, rains were excessive in December and January, resulting in localized floodings, mainly in Namibe and Kunene Provinces. Most of the Angola cattle population is found in the southern region so the abundant rains benefited also pastures and livestock conditions. Compared to other areas of the country, this region has a better security situation and a higher traffic of people and goods was reported within the region and to some extent towards the central region.

Namibe

Namibe is largely arid and only 12 400 farmers are estimated to be cultivating 14 000 hectares. The forecast production for 2000/01 is 3 600 tonnes of maize and 1 600 tonnes of millet/sorghum. Flooding in March/April caused extensive damage to homes and infrastructure, affecting 6 000 families and in Bibala municipality 75 percent of crops planted in January were lost. Destruction of three road bridges and railway bridges due to excessive rains in April hampered the connections by road with Huila and Benguela Provinces and by railway with Huila Province. Instability in neighbouring municipalities of Benguela and Huila Provinces had a negative effect in Namibe Province and led to inflow of IDPs into the Provincial capital and Camacuio municipality. Coping mechanisms include firewood collection, charcoal making, fishing, selling of fish, casual labour ("ganho"or "biscato") and cattle rearing for the larger owners.

Huila

145 000 farming families with 226 000 hectares under cultivation are expected to produce 74 000 tonnes of maize, 54 200 tonnes of millet/sorghum and 72 000 tonnes of cassava. Flooding in March/April caused damage to homes and infrastructure but crops do not appear to have been seriously affected.

Kunene

Kunene's 49 000 farmers with 73 000 hectares of land are estimated to produce 26 000 tonnes of millet/sorghum and 5 200 tonnes of maize form the 2000/01 season. The security situation is quite good with free movement to most municipalities. Crops of millet and sorghum inspected by the Mission looked good and normal yields are expected. Cattle were plentiful and in good condition - grass growth has been prolific as a result of heavy rain although flooding in March/April caused extensive damage to homes and infrastructure.

Kuando Kubango

There are 64 000 farming families estimated for Kuando Kubango, with 48 000 hectares. Production forecasts are for 12 500 tonnes of millet/sorghum, 9 000 tonnes of maize and 14 000 tonnes of cassava. The security situation is said to have improved and the population is able to circulate within a 15 -20 km radius of the municipal centres, except in areas where there is a danger of mines, like Macusso. Some IDPs are reported to have made visits back to their home areas, up to 70 km away. The population is coping and malnutrition or mortality rates are not alarming. Coping mechanisms include collection of wild fruits, fishing, selling firewood, making cane mats and alcoholic drinks for sale, and casual labour in Namibia. The main crops are usually maize, millet and sorghum but due to a very late start to the rains (February) maize production this year will be extremely poor. Seeds were distributed to 7 260 families of IDPs. Some IDPs brought cattle with them, but many were lost or abandoned. Curdled milk (mahini) is an important food for those that have cattle.

5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

5.1 Access to food and prices

Food supply and access in Angola varies very much from one part of the country to another, depending on the security and infrastructure conditions for farming and trading products. Widespread insecurity and poor conditions of roads and other rural infrastructure have adversely affected production, caused market disruption and hindered food commodity trade between surplus and deficit areas. That is the case of Luena the capital city of Moxico province, visited by the Mission, which is connected to the rest of the country only by air. There is no record of significant overland trade between Luena and the province's other towns or the countryside, with the exception of very limited small-scale transactions of agricultural products and other consumer goods by bicycle. Nor is there information on local trade beyond the secured areas. A similar situation was observed in Kuito Province of Bie, where trade and other commercial activity with the coastal and southern trading points have been severely restricted. It was reported that some quantities of local maize are being purchased in Kuito and transported on return trips to be sold in Huambo and Lubango.

By contrast, the southern-western provinces remain relatively calm and the markets operate reasonably well. The Mission had the opportunity to visit Huila and Kunene and to interview producers and traders. There existed a relatively well functioning trade circuit, with stocks of maize and sorghum being moved from Kunene and Huila to the cities of Benguela and Namibe to supply mills and consumer markets. The WFP is currently purchasing locally 3 000 tonnes of maize for targeted distribution in the same area. Also, there is a relatively active livestock market for supplying the local market and Luanda. Producer maize prices in the local market reflect the relative normal environment.

As a consequence of the mentioned trade restrictions and market distortions there exist important price differentials of food products among provinces and towns. Availability of maize from food aid in Luena, Saurimo and Kuito (all towns with security problems) help to meet requirements and maintain prices low as compared with Lubango market, for instance, where a relatively normal market activity still exists. The table below shows consumer prices in different markets, as recorded by the Mission.

Table 5. Market Prices in May 2001 (Kwanzas per kg)

As regards price variations over time, the dollar-expressed cost of a food basket based on maize but also including other foods, such as beans, oil, salt, for selected maize consumer provinces show seasonal variations but no indication of an upward or downward trend between marketing years². This trend can also be observed when considering only maize prices, as shown in the charts below. This denotes certain medium term stability in food supplies, mostly maize, either attained from domestic production or imports.

The Mission noticed that free food distribution and other assistance programmes are feeding displaced people and helping to resettle the displaced families almost everywhere. Such a situation was observed in Luena/Moxico and surroundings, in Saurimo and Kuito, the capitals of Lunda Sul and Bie provinces respectively, and in the north of Huila province. Donor support will have to continue until the displaced families manage to return to their original farming lands or are resettled somewhere else. In the areas of concentration, there is virtually no significant source of employment for the displaced people.

The Mission observed that in Lunda Sul, Malanje and Moxico the resettled population extensively planted cassava this year. The increased availability of cassava expected for next year will improve the food security of many farm families in resettled areas but the short-term food deficit has to be met by cereal imports, most probably as food aid.

5.2 Cereal supply/demand balance, 2001/2002

Maize, millet and sorghum, and cassava are the main staple foods in Angola though with differing relative importance according to regions (cassava in the north and northeast, maize in the central highlands and millet/sorghum in the south). Wheat flour-made products and rice are popular foods in the cities.

The table below summarises the supply/demand situation of cereals and cassava for the 2001/2002 marketing year.

Table 6. Food Balance Sheet for the Marketing Year 2001-2002 (`000 tonnes)

National cereal consumption requirement has been calculated on the basis of mid-marketing year population estimate (13 758 764) and an annual per caput cereal consumption of 76 kg. Per caput consumption has been increased from the historical consumption of 70 kg used in the past, to 76 kg to take into account WFP rations for 1 337 069 beneficiaries who will depend entirely on food aid in marketing year 2001/02. WFP rations are: emergency assistance, 450 grams person/day; food for work, 400 grams person/day; safety net, 50-350 grams person/day. Recent estimates by the Food Security Unit of the Ministry of Agriculture suggest an annual cassava consumption requirement of 97 kg per caput. However, cassava production and consumption statistics may not be entirely reliable and need to be refined.

Other uses of cereals and cassava include on-farm retention of seed for the next planting season, post-harvest losses and animal feed, estimated by MINADER/GSA as follows: coarse grains 20 percent of total production; cassava, 30 percent; rice, 10 percent.

Virtually no information is available on stocks, hence no stock change has been assumed by the mission.

Based on the above calculations, the Mission forecasts a deficit of 581 000 tonnes of cereals in marketing year 2001/2002 (April/March). Commercial imports are anticipated at 405 000 tonnes, including 250 000 tonnes of wheat, 107 000 tonnes of rice and 48 000 tonnes of maize. Imports of wheat and rice, not produced domestically, were projected from recorded imports during the first quarter of the year and adjusted following consultations with private traders and review of macroeconomic indicators. Maize flour is imported commercially in relatively small quantities, mainly in the form of maize meal. Angola has a free food market; marketing, pricing and external trade of agricultural commodities are liberalised. However, imports are constrained by internal credit availability. This year, availability of credit is expected to remain at level of last year.

After commercial imports, there is still a deficit of 176 000 tonnes of cereals to be covered by food aid. Of this, food aid in stocks and pledged amounts to 33 000 tonnes, leaving 143 000 tonnes still to be pledged. It is estimated that 1 337 069 beneficiaries are in need of food assistance through emergency food aid, food for work and vulnerable groups assistance programmes. Out of this number, WFP plans to assist 1 172 561 beneficiaries (see Table 9).

6. EMERGENCY FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENT

Background: The emergency relief and resettlement food aid needs presented in this report are based upon an a vulnerability assessment exercise carried out by WFP and its NGOs, Government and UN agency partners during April/May 2001 in each province where food aid is distributed. The vulnerability analysis exercise gives special attention to the needs of women and children and includes discussions with beneficiaries (both IDPs and residents) and key informant persons. The results of this assessment were used by the WFP provincial management teams to review the need for food assistance within the province and a preliminary set of estimates was prepared. These were reviewed by the mission when they visited the province during which particular consideration was given to the assessment of the harvest by the FAO members of the team.

It should be noted, however, that although the security situation has improved in some areas compared with 2000, movement in most provinces has remained restricted to the narrow secure zone around each provincial capital. The situation beyond this zone could not be assessed either by the Vulnerability Assessment provincial groups or the FAO/WFP Mission members with any accuracy.

Difficult access to food for the targeted group: Food security for most of the Angolan population in the provinces is closely linked to access to land and other inputs, including labour, during the agricultural season. Since all households need access to food sources beyond the crops which they grow themselves, food security is also closely linked to the access which households have to resources beyond those needed for crop production. These include access to forest and grazing resources and opportunities to trade - both within and outside the agricultural sector. Security and access are prerequisites for these activities. Access to potable water and health services for the treatment of diseases, which affect the absorption of nutrients, are also vital for maintaining food security at a household and individual level.

Displaced rural populations are extremely food insecure as at the time of displacement they are rarely able to carry with them their household possessions or food stocks. It has been observed that in recent years displacements commonly occur immediately before harvest, when household food stocks are at their lowest levels. IDPs become self-sufficient again only after their integration into the local economy, or when they return to their areas of origin and re-establish their households. Those with relatives in the resident population will eventually acquire land in the secure zone, but the remainder is dependent on Government land distribution schemes and food aid until they resettle or emigrate to the coastal cities. It should be noted that even in the zones which are considered secure, the collapse of the market economy and decline in the level of public social services have made resident households more and more vulnerable to food insecurity.

Access to land for IDPs: Few IDPs have been able to return to their areas of origin during 2000. However, during this period there has been an improved effort on the part of the provincial authorities and their partners to distribute suitable land to IDPs in secure areas. In October 2000 the Council of Ministers issued a decree which establishes official guidelines which must be followed by the provincial authorities in allocating land to internally displaced populations in areas which are not their areas of origin. Although security of tenure and other problems remain in the implementation of these guidelines, they do nevertheless represent a step forward in resolving the long-term problem of integrating IDPs into the local agricultural economy and enabling them to become self-sufficient. An improved campaign for the distribution of agricultural inputs enabled many IDPs to increase the areas which they cultivate successfully.

Access to land for residents: Although particular problems of access were evident in Bie and other provinces where the conflict was most intense, residents in many provinces generally has better access to their lands for cultivation during the period September-March 2000/2001 than during the same period in 1999/2000. As with the IDP households, an improved campaign for the distribution of agricultural inputs made it easier for them to take advantage of the improved access.

Limited income earning opportunities outside agriculture: As mentioned above, the contraction of the economy has led to a growing proportion of the population whose purchasing power is derived largely from activities such as seasonal agricultural work on the agricultural holdings of other members of the community, petty trading, the sale of firewood and charcoal, the production of traditional beverages and the provision of services such as "portering" and "odd jobs". The influx of the displaced population to the main provincial and municipal centres which followed the resumption of the conflict in late 1998 led to a further disruption of the marketing systems and economies of the larger towns and to an increase in competition for the kinds of employment which were already the only source of income for a large part of the resident population. With the exception of Namibe, and the western parts of Kunene and Huila provinces, this situation has continued unchanged in all the provinces of the interior. The economies in these provinces remain essentially moribund and the Mission found that compared with 2000, there had been no significant improvement in the opportunities for employment which displaced and vulnerable populations have outside the agricultural sector for generating incomes.

Nutrition: The nutritional surveys carried out in areas where humanitarian access is possible during the period under review (April 2000-May 2001) indicated substantial improvements in the nutritional situation across the country during the period April to August 2000. However, from September 2000 to January 2001, a deterioration of the nutritional situation in some regions of the country was observed and there were upward trends in the number of admissions at Therapeutic and Supplementary Feeding Centres. This increase can be attributed to the hungry season, reduced household food stocks, and the arrival of new IDPs. During the first quarter of 2001, high malnutrition and mortality rates among children under 5 years were observed in some newly accessible areas (e.g. Camacupa in Bie province and Mussende in Kuanza Sul province). NGOs and the Ministry of Health have recently carried out nutrition surveys in the provinces of Malanje, Huambo, Kuito, Benguela, Moxico and Uige. These indicate improvements in the nutritional status of residents and IDPs except in locations where new IDPs have arrived as a result of insecurity in their zones of origin.

The general nutritional situation in accessible areas is stable. In the cities and in the municipalities under Government control, the population generally has access to land during the cropping season and has also been able to complement this with coping mechanisms as part of their survival strategy. Thus in these areas the nutritional situation is not worrying. However, in some of the newly accessible areas the nutritional situation is still unknown and in others, where a preliminary survey has been carried out, the security situation is not yet stable enough to allow the Humanitarian Community to fully implement appropriate nutritional programmes as required.

Medium-term prospects: The mission notes the improvements in the land distribution schemes for displaced families and the greatly improved coordination of the campaign to distribute seeds and tools. It further notes that a significant proportion of the population, which was displaced during the upsurge in fighting during 1998/99, has been partially or completely absorbed into the local economies of the provincial capitals to which they fled. However, the mission notes with concern the poor security of tenure which many re-settled IDPs have over the land which they have received and urges the provincial administrations and their partners to adhere to the minimum conditions for the re-settlement of displaced households which are clearly laid out in the Decree approved by the Council of Ministers in October 2000. The mission also urges the Government and the humanitarian community to continue to improve the co-ordination of the seeds and tools distribution campaigns.

While acknowledging the improvements during the past 12 months the mission feels that there will be a continuing need for food assistance during the coming year, especially in those provinces where there remain large numbers of IDPs who have not yet been given land and in those provinces where the conflict is still intense and there is a continuing flow of displaced people into secure areas. Recently re-settled families will also need support until they can cultivate sufficient land to ensure self-sufficiency in basic food products. The poor prospects for an improvement in the national economy, especially in the economies in the provinces in the interior and the prospects of a poor harvest in some of the northern provinces mean that large numbers of re-settled IDPs and residents will be vulnerable in the "hungry season", i.e. from September onwards, until the harvest in 2002.

Caseload: At the time of the mission in May 2001, it was estimated that the number of people who would need assistance during 2000/2001 would be around 1.86 millions. The number which the Mission estimates will require assistance during 2001/2002 is 1.34 millions. This is a significant reduction in numbers compared with the previous year. More importantly the structure of the caseload is expected to be substantially different in 2000/01 compared with the previous year. Preliminary estimates of the number of people who will require a full family ration, freely distributed, has fallen to around 780 000 - this is 46percent lower than last year and includes a growing proportion of beneficiaries who are IDPs who have been re-settled under conditions which meet the minimum standards for re-settlement described in the Government decree of October 2000 and who are expected to reach full self-sufficiency at the next harvest. Thus a substantial majority of the caseload is expected to be made up of beneficiaries who receive food assistance for only a part of the year - mostly during the period September 2001-April 2002. Ideally these beneficiaries should have access to food distribution activities which are self-targeting, e.g. food-for-work activities and schemes which are targeted at vulnerable members of the population who are at risk of malnutrition.

These estimates are based on the assumptions of a continuing successful campaigns to distribute land to IDPs and seeds and tools to both IDPs and residents; the availability of suitable food-for-work activities and of the willingness of the NGOs and donor community to provide resources for them; and of a continuation of the present level of intensity of the conflict.

The table below summarises the total number of persons that will need humanitarian assistance over the period 2001-2002, broken down by province and category of intervention

Table 7. Angola - Projected Total Number of Food Aid Beneficiaries by Province and Type of Assistance - 2001-2002

The average monthly number of persons that will need humanitarian assistance over the coming year is 1 337 000.

An indicative full food basket required to provide such assistance is shown in Table 8 below where coarse cereals (mainly maize) total 176 112 tonnes.

Table 8. Food Requirements for the Total Beneficiary Caseload

Out of the above-mentioned population in urgent need of assistance, WFP expects to reach a monthly average of 1 172 500 persons, which represents 88 per cent of the total number. It is expected that the remainder will receive food aid through other donors pipeline (mainly ICRC, European Commission, CARITAS).

The WFP country strategy was revised in October-December 2000 following an extensive review of the situation in Angola and of WFP's response to it. This was incorporated into the current protracted relief and rehabilitation operation (PPRO 6159.01) approved by the WFP Executive Board in February 2001. The structure of the projected WFP caseload for 2001-2002 reflects the revised strategy. It expects a continuing, but smaller number of new IDPs, a much improved and expanded re-settlement programme for IDPs and the greater use of self-targeting food aid distribution mechanisms to provide short term support for households during relatively short or seasonal shortages of food within the household.

The table below shows the break down of WFP's number of beneficiaries, by province and type of intervention.

Table 9. Projected Average Number of Food Aid Beneficiaries under WFP's Pipeline, by Province and Type of Assistance - 2001-2002

An indicative full food basket required to provide such an assistance is shown in Table 10 below where coarse cereals (mainly maize) total 158 645 tonnes.

Table 10. Angola - Projected Total Food Aid Requirements for WFP Programme, 2001-2002, by Commodity and by Type of Intervention (tonnes)

A breakdown of projected average WFP assistance, by province and by commodity is shown in Table 11

Table 11. Breakdown of Projected WFP Assistance, by Province and by Commodity (tonnes)

WFP Strategy and Methods of Intervention

WFP's strategy in Angola has two parts. The first is to provide, in partnership with the local Government structures, NGOs and other partners, emergency food assistance to the targeted beneficiaries over a limited time span in order to save their lives and/or enable them to undertake productive activities so as to recover sustainable livelihood. There are three main processes by which this occurs - integration into the local economy (including land distribution and re-settlement schemes), re-settlement in their areas of origin or emigration.

In addition to emergency food assistance WFP provides food assistance to families and individuals who are food insecure for short periods during the year and need assistance until their incomes or food supplies recover sufficiently to allow them to regain their independence. In Angola this is particularly relevant during the "hungry season" when household food stocks from the previous harvest are low and are not sufficient to provide a level of nutrition which is adequate for a healthy and active life. This assistance is provided through self-targeting activities such as food-for-work and supplementary and therapeutic feeding centres.

The three main methods of intervention during 2001-2002 will be:

(i) Emergency response via free food assistance, which will be provided for strictly, limited periods and targeted to newly displaced persons and returnees. Newly displaced households will be given free distributions for up to a maximum of two full agricultural seasons. Returnees and those re-settled IDPs who are food insecure who are re-settled under conditions which respect the minimum conditions for re-settlement outlined in the Government decree of October 2000 will receive family rations for a period of eight months to enable them to construct permanent shelters and prepare their land for planting. If necessary, a further 12 months on half rations will be provided to encourage them to expand the area of land under cultivation.

(ii) Emergency/recovery via safety nets, either targeted or self-targeting, will help to ensure that those who genuinely require assistance to meet their family's food needs will continue to receive that assistance. These safety nets will include:

• Communal kitchens for children under 5 at risk of malnutrition;
• therapeutic and supplementary feeding centres for malnourished people; and
• the provision of half rations for a period of three to four months to families of children attending therapeutic and supplementary feeding centres, to ensure that the children continue to receive adequate nutrition after their discharge from the centres.

(iii) Recovery/rehabilitation schemes via food for work will be self-targeting, with the aim of reaching food-insecure families in areas at high risk of malnutrition. Potential beneficiaries can choose whether or not to take advantage of the assistance offered.

Logistics

WFP's activity network in Angola covers 17 provinces organised through eleven provincial sub-offices, including Luanda. Insecurity continues to render most major road corridors insecure for food transport using roads. As a result, use of air transport is still high at 62percent of all food delivered to inland locations.

WFP Angola can deliver between 15 000 tonnes to 17 000 tonnes of food per month to provincial locations. Most food is imported through the three main seaports of Luanda, Lobito and Namibe. Limited quantities of cereals, salt and dried fish are locally purchased in Benguela and Huila provinces. For the current PRRO Lobito is expected to handle 48percent of the food, with Luanda 39percent and Namibe 13percent Average discharge rates for the ports are Namibe 600 tonnes/day for bulk and 400 tonnes/day break-bulk; Lobito 800 tonnes/day bulk and 600 tonnes/day break-bulk, and Luanda 800 tonnes/day bulk and 600 tonnes/day break-bulk. Sufficient transport capacity is available for receipt of these tonnages and immediately transferred to primary storage points.

The primary warehouses located in Luanda, Lobito and Lubango are rented commercially and their current respective capacities are Luanda at 19 000 tonnes, Lobito at 24 000 tonnes and Lubango at 6 000 Mt. Warehousing at 12 WFP provincial sub-offices, is either commercially rented or availed by the Government. Temporary storage units are available to cover any increased needs for warehousing especially when buffer stocks have to be positioned.

The air operations are made from three major staging areas at Luanda, Catumbela and Benguela. There will be increased use of Namibe and Lubango, especially when operations out of Catumbela are restricted. In addition, for locations with runway restrictions, such as Ganda and Balombo, a Buffalo DHC-5 out of Lobito airport is used.

In addition to the prevailing security concerns, and taking into account the predominant use of air transport for food delivery, the other main constraints of the WFP logistics operations remain poor runway conditions and aircraft fuel availability at origin airports. The ability of WFP to reduce use of air delivery for less costly surface transport into locations such as Huambo and Kuito is limited by the security concerns. These two provinces are expected to receive 32percent of all the tonnage delivered, most of which is still transported by air. Attempts at increasing road deliveries to Huambo have been limited due to security concerns (ambushes, banditry) along the route. However, deliveries for Malanje that is expected to receive 11percent of all food despatched, will continue to be by road. Runway conditions, especially at Kuito have not improved, leading WFP to exclusively use more expensive propeller L 100 aircraft. Runways and taxiways at other locations such as Huambo, Luena, Negage and Saurimo have persistent problems with poor conditions, leading to complete closure of the airports or restrictions on use. The assured availability of aviation fuel especially at Catumbela and Benguela airports is inconsistent, leading to cancellation of flights. The air operations unit at Luanda is constantly monitoring this situation and adjusting schedules to ensure that all the required tonnages are delivered in the time period.

Provincial level logistics operations are in place, with arrangements to receive food from origin points, warehouse and forward it to final delivery points.

1 The contents of this section are base on a variety of sources, including: UNDP Human Development Report; UN Consolidated Appeal for Angola; Country Profile - Angola 2000 and Country Report - Angola I Quarter 2001 (The Economist Intelligence Unit); various publications from the National Bank of Angola and the Ministry of Planning.

2 Based on information from WFP/VAM.