BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION
| |
1999/2000 | 2000/2001 |
2001/2002 |
2002/2003
estimate |
2003/2004
forecast |
Change 2003/04
over 2002/2003 | |
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/ | (million tones) | (percentage) | | Wheat | 591.9 | 585.7 | 589.1 | 568.9 | 556.4 | -2.2 | | Coarse grains | 887.4 | 874.1 | 917.4 | 879.6 | 912.8 | 3.8 | | Rice, milled | 409.1 | 403.4 | 400.1 | 384.0 | 396.2 | 3.2 | | (paddy) | (611.2) | (603.3) | (598.6) | (574.8) | (593.2) | 3.2 | |
All cereals (incl. milled rice) |
1 888.4 |
1 863.2 |
1 906.7 |
1 832.6 |
1 865.4 |
1.8 | | Developing countries | 1 040.4 | 1 009.8 | 1 026.7 | 999.7 | 1 034.7 | 3.5 | | Developed countries | 848.0 | 853.5 | 880.0 | 832.9 | 830.7 | -0.3 | |
WORLD TRADE 2/ | | | | | | | | Wheat | 110.3 | 101.2 | 108.3 | 106.8 | 97.5 | -8.7 | | Coarse grains | 102.0 | 108.1 | 106.4 | 104.1 | 103.0 | -1.1 | | Rice (milled) | 23.2 | 24.2 | 28.1 | 27.7 | 27.0 | -2.6 | |
All cereals |
235.5 |
233.5 |
242.8 |
238.6 |
227.5 |
-4.7 | | of which: Food aid shipments 3/ | 10.6 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 8.0 | | | |
WORLD UTILIZATION | | | | | | | | Wheat | 595.5 | 600.2 | 610.2 | 615.5 | 610.3 | -0.8 | | Coarse grains | 898.3 | 908.8 | 929.2 | 929.4 | 938.4 | 1.0 | | Rice (milled) | 400.5 | 407.0 | 411.6 | 411.9 | 415.4 | 0.8 | |
All cereals |
1 894.4 |
1 915.9 |
1 951.0 |
1 956.7 |
1 964.1 |
0.4 | | Developing countries | 1 156.7 | 1 164.6 | 1 185.7 | 1 186.5 | 1 208.5 | 1.9 | | Developed countries | 737.6 | 751.3 | 765.3 | 770.3 | 755.6 | -1.9 | |
Per Caput Food Use | (kg/year) | | | Developing countries | 166.9 | 166.0 | 166.6 | 165.7 | 166.2 | 0.3 | | Developed countries | 132.7 | 133.6 | 133.2 | 132.6 | 132.9 | 0.2 | |
WORLD STOCKS 4/ | (million tonnes) | | | Wheat | 256.9 | 242.6 | 223.5 | 178.4 | 125.8 | -29.5 | | Coarse grains | 259.4 | 225.9 | 210.2 | 165.8 | 141.3 | -14.8 | | Rice (milled) | 168.1 | 164.8 | 150.6 | 122.4 | 104.7 | -14.4 | |
All cereals |
684.5 |
633.4 |
584.2 |
466.6 |
371.9 |
-20.3 | | Developing countries | 519.8 | 472.9 | 417.2 | 331.5 | 253.9 | -23.4 | | Developed countries | 164.7 | 160.4 | 167.1 | 135.1 | 118.0 | -12.7 | |
EXPORT PRICES 3/ | (US$/tonne) | | | Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/ | 253 | 207 | 177 | 197 | 202 5/ | 1.0 6/ | | Wheat (U.S. No.2 HRW) | 112 | 128 | 127 | 161 | 144 7/ | -9.0 6/ | | Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow) | 91 | 86 | 90 | 107 | 99 7/ | -5.3 6/ | |
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/ | | | | | | | | From U.S. Gulf to Egypt | 13.7 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 16.7 | 21.0 7/ | 40.0 6/ | |
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/ | (million tonnes) | | |
Roots & tubers production 1/ | 438.2 | 450.4 | 445.9 | 450.2 | 450.0 | 0.0 | |
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/ | 816.9 | 776.5 | 783.4 | 766.8 | 778.6 | 1.5 | |
Per caput production (kg.) 9/ | 217.3 | 204.3 | 203.7 | 196.9 | 197.5 | 0.3 | |
Cereal imports 2/ | 75.3 | 73.7 | 79.9 | 79.5 | 75.3 | -5.4 | |
of which: Food aid deliveries 3/ | 7.2 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 6.8 | | | |
Proportion of cereal import | (percentage) | | |
covered by food aid | 9.6 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 8.5 | | | | | | | | | | |
Source: FAO Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ For wheat and coarse grains, trade refers to exports based on the July/June marketing season. For rice, trade refers to exports based on the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/ Stock data are based on an aggregate of individual country carryovers at the end of national crop years and, therefore, do not represent world stock levels at any point in time. 5/ Average of quotations for January-August 2003. 6/ Change from the corresponding period of the previous year, for which figures are not shown. 7/ Average of quotations for July-August 2003. 8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$1 445 in 2000). 9/ Including milled rice.HIGHLIGHTS PAGE
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