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FAO GLOBAL INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME |
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A FAO/WFP Crop, Food Security Assessment Mission visited Iraq from 5 June to 14 July 2003 to assess the current food security situation - following the recent military and political upheaval – to estimate the 2003 cereal harvest and to forecast the cereal import requirements, including food aid, in the marketing year 2003/2004 (July/June). The Mission was able to visit all 18 governorates during the assessment. The Mission’s findings are based on discussions held with advisors to the Office of the Coalition Provisional Authority (OCPA), relevant ministries, United Nations agencies, multilateral and bilateral donors, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), farmers, Ministry of Trade Food Agents, community leaders, combine-harvester contractors, traders and haulers and the Mission’s own crop inspections, crop-cut samplings and surveys.
Mission estimates for cereal area and yield in the three northern governorates are based on data collected by the FAO offices in each governorate and adjusted following field visits and discussions with local specialists. Last year’s post-harvest estimates were also obtained from FAO Agricultural Unit in Erbil. For seven central/southern governorates, estimates on cereal and yield were calculated based on data from the Directorates of Agriculture (DOA) adjusted, following discussions with specialists and field visits. The Mission found that favourable rains in northern Iraq, increased levels of water for irrigation, timely distribution of agricultural inputs in the main cereal producing areas and limited occurrence of pests and diseases have resulted in improved cereal production. Direct effects of the war on winter cereal production and perennial crops were far less than might have been expected. Northern agriculture was virtually untouched, and elsewhere, all husbandry practices and field operations except harvesting had already been carried out when hostilities started in mid-March and the war ended by mid-April, before the harvest had begun. The effects on summer crop production, however, may yet prove to be very serious. Industrial crops in the centre/south had not yet been sown in mid-March and areas of maize and rice crops are likely to be reduced due to water supply problems caused by reduced and uncertain power supply to irrigation schemes and insufficient fertilizers and plant protection chemicals.1
Overall, the Mission estimated the 2003 total cereal production in Iraq at 4.12 million tonnes, comprising 2.55 million tonnes of wheat, 1.32 million tonnes of barley, 125 000 tonnes of maize and 125 000 tonnes of milled rice (the latter two to be harvested in September/October). At this level, production is 22 percent above last year’s estimates (derived from the 2002 DOA and FAO data).2 Cereal stocks in silos across the country is estimated at about 1.63 million tonnes. Planned cereal imports in the marketing year 2003/2004 (July/June) are estimated at 3.44 million tonnes of which 3.2 million tonnes are based on approved food contracts currently in the WFP pipeline and the earlier outstanding approved, funded and outstanding letter-of-credit issued food contracts between the GOI and international food suppliers to be called forward. Food aid pledges are estimated at 244 000 tonnes.3
Livestock in the north of the country are generally in good condition. However, poor rainfall in the sparse desert pastures and drained marshes in central and southern Iraq resulted in early movement of animals. Grazing over barley fields were also noted in some parts. Nevertheless, the availability of cheap feed grain and low incidence of diseases is expected to result in an overall improvement in livestock performance this year.
This year’s good agricultural production and the lifting of economic sanctions contrast with the enormous economic difficulties faced by the bulk of the population. The effects of war and economic sanctions compounded by three years of severe drought (1999-2001) have seriously eroded the asset base of the population and rendered the bulk of the population to rely on food rations for their daily subsistence. The Mission’s findings indicate that about 55 percent of the population is poor, and 44 percent are currently food insecure. The Public Distribution System (PDS) operated under the Oil-for-Food programme established by SCR 986 (1995) provides food for the entire population of approximately 26.3 million Iraqis. While starvation has been averted, chronic malnutrition problems persist especially among vulnerable groups including children and mothers due to a lack of nutrition diversity.
A marked improvement in the nutritional well-being of the population will require a substantial flow of resources into rehabilitation of the agriculture sector and the economy as a whole. Although there is potentially enough food and sufficient food diversity from imports and domestic agriculture there is insufficient access to nutritious food and more than half of the population remains without the buying power to obtain a proper diet on a regular basis.
The past decade has also seen a general decline in agricultural producer prices. Between June 1995 and June 1996 alone, the price of wheat dropped from US$172 to US$77 per tonne and that of barley from US$128 to US$66 per tonne. Such a decline may have served as a disincentive for local farmers but stimulated a burgeoning informal export market to Iran and Syria. Recently some measures and agreements have been undertaken by the Iraqi authorities (Ministry of Trade) and WFP which contributed to stabilising prices and controlling declining cereal farm-gate prices. As parties to a first Agreement the CPA, the MOT, and WFP agreed that MOT should act as the “procurer of last resort” for the wheat harvest of 2003 at a price of US$105 per tonne for home produced wheat grains received at MOT sites, up to a maximum of 1.25 million tonnes. A second agreement between the CPA, MOT and FAO stipulates that MOT should also act as the “procurer of last resort” for up to 500 000 tonnes of the 2003 barley harvest at a rate of US$65 per tonne received at MOT sites. However, in spite of specific arrangements made to accept smutty grains, the stringent quality controls and associated penalty clauses and sale acceptance may still penalize small farmers, with have no access to herbicides or grain cleaners.
In conclusion, despite the apparent recovery in this year’s agricultural production, the end of the major military operations, and the lifting of the economic sanctions, millions of Iraqis have no access to food other than through the PDS. The effects of 24 years of war and economic sanctions compounded with three consecutive years of drought have seriously eroded the purchasing power of the population.
Thus, any significant disruption of the PDS would have a severe negative impact on food access. Nevertheless, the highly subsidized food basket policy must be rethought and better targeted; it should eventually be gradually phased out. The food basket needs improvement and diversification to ensure adequate micronutrient and protein supply. The agricultural sector should be encouraged to provide the complement in food diversity, and access to this complement by vulnerable population groups should be ensured. Health and water/sanitation need urgent attention to improve the bioavailability of food.
National scale food safety nets should be promoted. Monitoring and surveillance for programme management and early warning should be set up in the current situation. Particular attention is needed for vulnerable family members and population groups, including returning refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). Finally, nutrition rehabilitation programmes need to be revitalized and enhanced so as to end the current sufferings among the Iraqi people.
Since the 1950s, oil has been the major source of income for the Iraqi economy. By 1989, oil revenues represented 61 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) – 13 663 million Iraqi dinars (ID) – compared with 5 percent from the agricultural sector. However, United Nations sanctions subsequent to the invasion of Kuwait (1990), as well as the 1991 Gulf War had a devastating effect on the economy. The embargo on oil sales sharply reduced GDP by 75 per cent to ID 3 333 million by the end of 1991, and agriculture represented an all-time high of 13.9 percent of GDP. Presently agriculture provides 29 percent of the GDP4.
In order to meet budget deficits, the Government of Iraq (GOI) printed more dinars from 1991–95, raised the prices of state services and supplied fuel, which caused the rate of inflation to rise. At the end of 1995, the government initiated measures to combat inflation and eliminate the budget deficit; however, increased demand for US dollars drove the dinar to an all-time low of ID 2 900 against the dollar.
By 1995, the economic hardship was so severe that a humanitarian crisis was declared, prompting the United Nations to initiate the Oil-for-Food Programme (OFFP). This programme was designed to avert a catastrophe and reverse the economic downward trend by providing food and support to the agricultural sector and allowing strategic imports, with all goods and materials to be purchased from resumed sale of oil, albeit within set limits.
With the resumption of oil sales GDP rose in real terms from ID 8 599 million in 1996 (by steps estimated at 28 percent in 1997, 35 percent in 1998, 40 percent in 1999 and 15 percent in 2000) to ID 23 920 million in 2000. Some injection of cash into the economy also revitalized agricultural subsectors insofar as they did not produce in direct competition with OFFP imports. Thus the vegetable and sheep subsectors flourished while dairy products and a burgeoning oil-seed industry virtually disappeared.
Another major outcome of the Gulf War was the creation of an internationally protected autonomous zone comprised of the three northern governorates of Dohuk, Erbil and Suleimaniya to accommodate the needs and wishes of the indigenous Kurdish population. These governorates had a totally separate, independent administration with a separate development agenda and separate policies from the other 15 central and southern governorates of Iraq. The two zones were separated until March 2003 by a patrolled frontier to protect the Kurdish minority. The different arrangement for Oil-for-Food programme delivery in the three northern governorates, as agreed in the MOU between the GOI and the UN under SCR 986, also somewhat protected this area from the most severe effects of the sanctions.
Separate development over the past decade has created a dual financial infrastructure among other things; and two currencies circulate within Iraq under two separate economic environments: a market economy in the north and a centralized economy in the centre and south. The exchange rates of the ID in central and southern Iraq and the Old Iraqi dinar (OID) in the north against the US dollar during the past seven years are shown in Table 1.
| Location | June 97 | June 98 | June 99 | June 00 | June 01 | June 02 | June 03 |
| Centre/South (ID) | 1 610 | 1 507 | 2 005 | 1 983 | 1 948 | 1 733 | 1 350 |
| North (OID) | 29.9 | 16.5 | 20.2 | 19.9 | 17.6 | 16.4 | 6.5 |
The table shows parallel up-and-down shifts throughout the period with major differences in degree of change appearing only at the beginning and end. This similarity suggests linkages between the two zones, with the frontier offering black-market opportunities to the south for selling subsidized inputs, particularly locally manufactured fertilizers, fuel and other goods. The previously deflated value of both currencies made such goods very attractive to buyers from Iran and Syria. By the same token, the arrangements also provided access to inputs for the northern farmers and growers, particularly locally manufactured compound and urea fertilizers.
In the centre and south, the state policy guaranteed prices and organized the procurement of all cereals, sustaining prices for producers. In the northern governorates, since the end of the drought (2001), there have been local surpluses of unsold wheat and barley that have been carried forward from year to year along with low farm-gate prices; however, exports this year are less likely as the OID has hit a new low, and there are movement restrictions.
The population of Iraq is estimated to be 26.3 million, for the period 1 July 20035. Average population density is estimated at 61/km2, ranging from 9/km2 in Anbar province in the western desert to more than 1 490/km2 in Baghdad province. While average population growth before the sanctions was estimated at 3.6 percent, this rate has been greatly reduced by emigration and severe economic hardship, reaching a low of 2.76 percent6 in 2003.
In 1990, the agricultural sector provided employment for about 20 percent of the population, compared with 31 percent in 1975. This decrease is attributed to increased job opportunities in the urban areas and the introduction of agricultural mechanization. However, after sanctions were imposed and with the collapse of industrial production, the drastic reduction in government spending and the scaling back of oil production, the only area of growth was in the agricultural sector.
About 27 percent of the total land area in Iraq (43.3 million ha) is considered suitable for cultivation. This represents 11.1 million ha of which 4.4 million ha are classified highly suitable, 4.7 million ha moderately suitable and 2 million ha less than suitable. About 50 percent of the land suitable for cultivation is irrigable, and the remaining 50 percent is rainfed, of which around half may be farmed every year depending on rainfall and fallowing patterns. Water resources are abundant in Iraq: the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers supply the major share of irrigation water for agriculture production in the country at 77 billion m3 in good years and 44 billion m3 in drought years.
Livestock production incorporating (both pastoral and settled ruminant systems) and a modern poultry industry are conducted under both rainfed and irrigated conditions. Regarding ruminant systems, an estimated 17 million head are distributed fairly equally between the two administrative zones. The poultry industry is based mostly in the centre and south, having been revitalized under OFFP; it was functioning until March 2003 under heavily subsidized conditions.
Located in the three governorates of the autonomous northern region, Dohuk, Erbil and Suleimaniya (40 percent), and in the governorates of Nineveh, Tameem and Salah al Din in the central region (60 percent), the rainfed subsector consists of a rain-dependent winter growing season extending from September/October to April/May. The season is supported by an average precipitation of from 350 mm to 1 100 mm increasing from south to north and varying from year to year in both quantity and distribution, in a manner typical of semi-arid, continental climates. Consequently, rainfed production also varies from year to year, ranging from 500 000 tonnes – 2.0 million tonnes according to the season. In the northern governorates, the current annual contribution of some 800 000 tonnes, in a reasonably good year, comprises around 50 percent wheat, 30 percent barley and 20 percent chickpeas. Nineveh is noted for producing more than 1 million tonnes of wheat and barley in a good year. Rainfall also contributes directly to cereal production in the northern districts of Tameem and Salah al Din but at a lower level. The 380 mm, 50-year average precipitation recorded in Mosul (Nineveh) decreases rapidly to the south, where it does not support cultivation without supplementary irrigation. Elsewhere in the country, the dry steppe and desert climates with rainfall of less than 200 mm (140 mm in Baghdad) exclude rainfed cultivation of cereals. The rainfed farming systems throughout all zones are essentially similar: continuous wheat with fertilizer applications juxtaposed with a barley/fallow rotation which usually does not include fertilizer use, but may incorporate chickpeas one year in three or four.
With the exception of the very minor use of animal traction in hilly areas, this sector shows a basic level of mechanization. Privately owned tractors (approximately 11 000 units) and combine harvesters (some 600 units) form the bulk of the north’s mechanized fleet.8 Around 14 percent of the farmers own their own machines and provide contract; they contract services out to non-owners. Despite the relatively advanced age of the fleet (not renewed during sanction years), the machines are presently sufficient in number to provide a minimal level of operations as generally requested by the majority of clients. Seedbed preparation for wheat under continuous cultivation usually consists of one or two passes with a mouldboard plough; seeds and fertilizers are then hand broadcast into on the furrows. In some areas, the seeds are broadcast before cultivation, followed by a single pass of a plough or discs. Fallow land is ploughed in early spring and again in autumn before being sown with barley, or, increasingly, with chickpeas. Harvesting is the only other mechanized operation; Serious weeds are eliminated by hand rouging. Some 70 percent of the area is harvested by combine-harvesters, according to estimates, and the remainder, – located on hillsides or in small isolated fields, – is cut using sickles and threshed using tractors.
Cereals are stored on farms throughout the three northern governorates in bags and in heaps within rooms inside houses or in specially rented accommodation; heaps of grain are stored in the open air, with and without plastic or tarpaulin covers and chemical treatment; grains are also stored underground in custom-built, mud-lined pits. Currently cereals are being stored for one to two years before sale or use because of lack of markets.
Located predominantly in the centre and south, comprising most of the remaining crops, the irrigated subsector accounts for some 70 percent of domestic production. Most irrigated crops are produced on the landmass between the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers from Baghdad to Basra, which represents some 40 percent of arable land in the country. Projects along each of the two rivers north of Baghdad contribute most of the remaining crops; no more than 4–5 percent is irrigated using groundwater reserves or aquifers.
As in the rainfed subsector, the main crops are wheat and barley, sown in October/November and harvested in May/June. These two crops are planted on roughly 2.5 million of the 3 to 3.4 million ha presently irrigated, with annual cereal grain production estimates for the subsector fluctuating from 700 000 (2000) to 3 million tonnes (1991). Perennial crops, notably dates, alfalfa, citrus, top fruits, stone fruits and nuts account for some 340 000 ha, and summer season maize, rice, vegetables, cotton and sunflowers make up the remaining 20 percent, depending on availability of water in the summer.
Except in the date palm orchards (where traditional multi-canopy cropping patterns are used), the irrigated subsector is mechanized with privately owned tractors (about 50 000 units) and combine-harvesters (about 5 600 units).9 Recent imports under OFFP have reduced the average age of the machines; 53 percent are nevertheless more than 15 years old and show concomitant inefficiencies. As in the rainfed sector, farmers who own machines contract out services to the others. Given the higher numbers of owners, the delays generally experienced in the north are not generally a problem in the irrigated central governorates or most of the south, but delays have been noted in Basra.
The most common land-preparation practices consist of a single pass with a mouldboard plough, hand broadcasting seeds and fertilizers and then immediately harrowing-in seeds and fertilizers. Apart from hand broadcast top dressing, no other operations are regularly adopted. However, in the key production governorates in the central region, both herbicides and insecticides are provided at subsidized rates and applied by DOA using aerial and ground-based spraying systems. Crop rotation varies according to location, water availability and market forces. In certain governorates, targets and wheat sale to the state-owned silos – with quotas set at 500 kg/donum (2 t/ha) – influence sowing patterns and fertilizer distribution. Some 70 percent of cereal harvesting is completed using combine harvesters. Areas that are still cut and threshed by hand are in the traditional date palm gardens, where tree spacing prevents machine access.
Until this year’s harvest, farmers had been obliged to sell grain to the state silos; on-farm storage, where it occurred, was only for grain retained for use by the family and their livestock or kept as a judicious reserve, by those uncertain of the reliability of the food aid flour supply ( and usually not more than 1.5 tonnes per household).
Both rainfed and irrigated agriculture are carried out within a land-tenure system consisting of small-scale owner/occupiers, large-scale lease-holding farming companies, and individual growers and share-croppers. Thus although the average farm size may be calculated at around 5 ha, enterprises with DOA leases farm up to several hundreds of hectares in the central and southern governorates, and traditional community leaders have similar levels of occupancy in the northern governorates. Such holding sizes justify the individual investment in farm machinery.
Credit for cereal farmers, with the exception of pioneer farmers who received 5-year loans at low interest rates to farm on newly reclaimed lands, is universally absent, resulting in cash-flow problems that are particularly acute in the northern governorates, where inputs have not been subsidized and markets are uncertain.
Key technical characteristics of cereal production in both sub-sectors include rudimentary cultivation practices, predominant use of farmer-saved seed, universal use of seed-dressing for covered smut, acceptance and use of fertilizer10 on wheat (both basal-dressing when available and urea top-dressing), use of sowing rates invariably higher than recommended levels (reflecting hand-sowing methods), Sunn pest which requires extensive and coordinated pest control and pernicious weeds that are not being effectively controlled. Finally there is the fact that all farmers are producing cereals for sale and are therefore conscious of their gross margins. A cropping calendar for both regions is shown in Table 2.
| Jan. | Feb | Mar. | Apr. | May | June | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | |
| Wheat | HarS | HarN | PPlS | PPlN | ||||||||
| Urea | NP | NP | ||||||||||
| Barley | HarS | HarN | PPLS | PPLN | ||||||||
| Maize | PPLE | Har | PPLL | Har | ||||||||
| Rice | PPLN | PPLS | HarN | HarS | ||||||||
| Chickpea | PPLN | HarN | ||||||||||
| Beans | HarPPL | PPLHar | ||||||||||
| Cotton | PPL | PPL | Har | Har | ||||||||
| Sunflower | PPL | PPL | Har | Har |
| = crops in field |
Past cereal production figures are noted to have been very low, particularly in the irrigated sector. The Mission believes that these low figures resulted in part from the practice of estimating production in the centre and south from recorded sales to the state silos. Such data do not include grain for home use, home food-security storage, seed stocks and livestock feed.
Furthermore, the availability of subsidized fertilizer for wheat allegedly caused farmers in the irrigated sub-sector to inflate the statistics about wheat- production producing areas in order to obtain compound fertilizer at reduced rates for use on other crops;, this practice would of course have inflated lowering DAO yield per ha calculations.
Rainfall
Most of the cereal production in northern Iraq is rainfed and rainfall in Iraq provides some 50 percent of the water supply flowing into the Tigris and contributes 10 percent of the flow into the Euphrates; thus to a very great extent the cereal crop performance depends on the rains in the north of the country and beyond the borders of Iraq. This year, seasonal rains in the north began well although a little late and, with some localized exceptions, continued in much the same manner until the beginning of April. The data in Figure 1, from 77 agro-met stations located in the three governorates in the autonomous northern region indicate that the overall quantity of rainfall was either as good as or greater than the good rains of last year.
Figure 1. Seasonal precipitation for 77 sites in Dohuk, Erbil and Suleimaniya (2002 and 2003)
In Figure 2 data from three strategically located sites in the northwest (Zahco), centre (Khabat), and southeast (Halabja) that were visited by the Mission; show that the rainfall less well distributed to have been less abundant than last year, with a premature finish to the season in early April.
Figure 2. 2003 Rainfall distribution by dekad in three strategic sites in Dohuk, Erbil and Suleimaniya (2002 and 2003)
Rainfall conditions were confirmed in discussions with the local authorities and in the farmer interviews during the rapid case studies conducted by the Mission in all three governorates. The Mission was unable to obtain any similar rainfall data for the seven governorates visited in the centre and south. However, during interviews conducted with key informants from the DOAs in those regions the Mission was able to visit, and during on-farm case studies conducted in the same areas, it was noted that this year’s rains have been quite variable. In Baghdad, good rains fell in January and February, but in Babylon and Wassit there were no useful rains until March and April. Similarly, in Basra and Muthanna, two or three days’ useful rain fell in November and December, but in Missan no substantial rain fell until March, when two days’ useful rains were reported.
Spot-4 Satellite Vegetation Data analysed by FAO at Headquarters in Rome accurately mirror the rainfall patterns described above in all regions. A Mission summary of the analysis is provided in Table 3, which draws comparisons between the vegetation conditions for the whole months of February and March, and between the evenly spaced second dekad of April and the first dekad of May, after which the rains ended. In the northern governorates with the exception of Dohuk, vegetative growth was better than last year, particularly in Nineveh. Growth in the south was worse this year, particularly in Missan and Basra.
| FEBRUARY | MARCH | APRIL d2 | MAY d1 | |
| Dohuk | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Erbil | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Suleimaniya | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nineveh | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Tameem | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Salah al Din | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Dyala | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Baghdad | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 |
| Anbar | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Najaf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wassit | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Qadisia | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Thiqar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Muthanna | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasiriya | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Missan | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Basra | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
In conclusion, the rains in the rainfed agricultural sub-sector were heavier than last year’s except in April in the most northerly zones. This encouraged planting, assisted crop establishment and obviated the need for any re-sowing. Good mid-season rains supported vegetative growth and enhanced the effect of urea top-dressing on wheat. The premature end to the season in Dohuk, northern parts of Erbil and parts of Suleimaniya coincided with grain-fill for much of the wheat and barley crop, causing the plants to rely on residual moisture for the final few weeks of development. Yields are thus not as high as last year’s in these localities.
River flows were at current average levels; key informant interviews confirmed that irrigation water was available in sufficient quantity. Subsequent irrigation frequency rates noted by the Mission ranged from three to eight times higher during the cereal-growing season, depending on distance from the central command area and community or enterprise influence with the officials in charge of irrigation-water distribution.
The southern ranges of saltbush and ephemeral annual grasses, dependent on local rainfall, have been less productive for the migratory herds of camels and goats, whereas the northern ranges which provide the bulk of the grazing were noted to be in good condition.
Area planted in 2002/2003
Data for 2003 for the northern governorates concerning areas planted in wheat and barley were obtained directly from the FAO district offices in Dohuk, Erbil and Suleimaniya; data for 2002 were obtained from the FAO Agricultural Statistics Unit in Erbil. Wheat area in Dohuk and Erbil increased by 10 percent, reflecting the good start to the rains, no seed shortages and sufficient tractor power to meet the requirements of one or two ploughing passes. The area sown to barley also increased by a similar proportion in Dohuk for similar reasons.
In Suleimaniya, the wheat and barley area remained almost steady while the area planted to chickpeas, now estimated to have reached 100 000 ha, has increased annually (up from 26 600 ha in 1997). The increase has been prompted by the good market situation with neighbouring countries. In Erbil and Dohuk, local agriculturalists reported that the area planted to chickpeas, the most important second crop, was essentially similar to last year’s (58 750 ha and 22 680 ha, respectively).
Summer crops in the region rely on irrigation or are grown in small swampy sites. Areas this year are expected to be the same as last year’s, comprising around 37 000 ha of vegetables and limited areas of paddy rice and sunflowers (10 000 ha and 13 000 ha, respectively).
In the central governorates of Baghdad, Babylon and Wassit, information for this year’s planting was provided by DOA, based on data collected earlier in the year when the offices were functioning normally. Areas planted to wheat in Baghdad and Babylon have increased by 48 percent and 59 percent, respectively, apparently due to the improved availability of inputs and the enhanced performance of the reinforced tractor fleet. In Wassit, the wheat area is very similar to last year’s. The barley area in Babylon is slightly lower than last year’s, but exhibits a very marked increase in Baghdad, presumably because farmers benefited from the improved tractor fleet. However, there is a dramatic reduction in the barley area in Wassit, where it was reported that since March many farmers had grazed their barley fields or sold the grazing to pastoralists, who had fewer places to go for grazing during and after the war.
Regarding other annual crops, the industrial crops of sunflowers (oil), sugar beet and cotton normally sown in March had not yet been sown this year as sowing time coincided with the onset of hostilities. Farmers in Wassit are reported by DOA staff as unlikely to plant the summer crops of maize and rice because of uncertainties over water supply, the provision of inputs and marketing problems, exacerbated by cash flow difficulties relating to the delayed sale of wheat and barley.
The Mission observed that around 166 000 ha of summer vegetables and annual fruits are being planted mostly in Baghdad, Wassit, Salah al Din, Dyala, and Babylon, as the farmers are less linked to heavily subsidized inputs and have few serious marketing issues to resolve. It is expected that around 166 000 ha of these crops will be planted.
For staff security reasons and except for one on-farm case study visit in Nineveh, the Mission was unable to visit any of the other governorates in the central region. However, transects driven in transit from late June to early July from Mosul to Erbil and from Erbil to Dohuk passed through major rainfed cereal areas of Nineveh, confirming the presence of extensive contiguous areas of harvestable/harvested wheat and barley with very few fallow fields. In the absence of DOA data for the central region governorates of Nineveh, Tameem Salah al Din, Dyala, Anbar, Qadisia, Kerbala and Najaf, the missing components in the Mission’s assessment of wheat and barley areas in both the rainfed and irrigated sub-sectors were estimated from area averages from the past five years collated by FAO earlier this year, and which were adjusted following discussions with the senior local agriculturalists and other members of the FAO team in Baghdad.
In the four southern governorates, the Mission met and had detailed discussions with all the directors of agriculture and their staff. Visits (including on-farm case studies) were also conducted in Basra, Muthanna and Missan. The latest data regarding cropped areas were collected from the DOA offices in the governorates where the staff were trying to function despite the destruction and looting that had occurred. The data show that wheat and barley areas are essentially the same for 2002 and 2003 in Missan and Muthanna, but that wheat area has decreased in Thiqar by 23 percent with some increase in barley area. In Basra, wheat area has increased by about 2 500 ha, seemingly at the expense of the barley area.
Some 3 000 ha of rice and 5 000 ha of maize are expected to be sown in both Thiqar and Missan. Throughout the region assorted vegetables and fruits, particularly watermelons and melons, are usually planted in summer, and land preparation was observed to be well under way for these crops.
Crop yields, 2002/2003
In addition to rainfall and irrigation patterns, several other factors influence crop performance and the ultimate yield per unit area: soil characteristics, quality of seedbed preparation, seed quality, sowing rates, timing of sowing, fertilizer use, pests/pest control and harvest timing and practices. These factors are, in turn influenced by prevailing government policies, traditions and socio-economic conditions in particular areas; the northern governorates and the central/southern governorates are thus treated separately in this report.
In the north, the Mission undertook detailed discussions with local agriculturalists, conducted 23 strategically placed, on-farm case studies (including crop inspections and participatory crop-cutting estimations of yields) and drove slow-speed transects through the main wheat- and barley-producing areas. Such activities were carried out in all three governorates extending from Zahco in northwest Dohuk to Halabja in southeast Suleimaniya.
This year, in the east and central zones, cultivation began slightly later than usual with the arrival of the rains in November instead of middle to late October. In the west, rain in early October encouraged an early start. Fuel and oil were available at black-market prices; tractor tyres were noted as difficult to find. However, in the east/central zones, the delayed start condensed the demand for tractor services, causing some farmers to miss either the optimum sowing time and/or to reduce the number of ploughing passes before sowing wheat. Ploughing contractors’ prices ranged from $8 to $40 per operation, depending on family connections and local demand for services at the peak time. The plentiful rains that followed the onset encouraged planting, and operations continued until early January with no re-sowing noted anywhere.
Given that only 2 705 tonnes of wheat seed, enough for 19 500 ha against the 440 000 ha sown, were distributed by FAO in 2002, that there was no barley seed distribution and that there are no private seed importers, it is estimated that 97 percent of the farmers used saved seed, either carried over from their own stocks from last year’s good harvest or purchased from local markets. Wheat varieties sown were identified locally as ACSAD 65 (in all three governorates), CHAM 3 CHAM 5 and CHAM 6 (in Dohuk), ACSAD 99 (in Erbil) and ITALIAN (in Suleimaniya). Barley varieties were commonly noted to be two-row types identified locally as black or white.
Although the need to treat seed against covered smut is well understood, farm-based seed-dressing appears to have been erratic due to a shortage of chemicals and a reluctance of some farmers to pay black-market prices for products of dubious quality, especially when markets and grain prices are not guaranteed. This may have some implications later, when the farmers are faced with the stringent quality controls recommended in the new purchasing guidelines issued by the Ministry of Trade (MOT) of the CPA. However, no serious infestations of smut are noted by the Mission for this year.
Seed rates are noted to be generally higher than the recommended levels at 110–170 kg/ha for wheat and 100–170 kg/ha for barley. The rates reflect both the minimal cultivation practices related to low-cost approaches and expediency, which reduce germination levels and cause the farmers to compensate by using more seed, and the universal adoption of hand broadcasting due to an absence of seed drills.
Under the prevailing conditions, among field crops, fertilizer is used only on wheat. At recommended rates of 100 kg compound basal-dressing per ha and 100 kg/ha urea top-dressing, this amounts to an overall fertilizer requirement of 260 000 tonnes. From January to December in 2002, 12 542 tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP) were distributed by FAO in the three governorates. As most of this was distributed before the summer vegetable growing season, it is probable that it was all used on vegetable crops. Nevertheless, the Mission notes that most wheat farmers in Erbil and Suleimaniya used compound fertilizer (NP-27:27) and urea, while in Dohuk only urea was available, thus it was also used as basal dressing at sowing time as there were no other alternatives. Whereas FAO supplies are sold at $100 per tonne, privately purchased fertilizers, smuggled into the autonomous region from the south, retailed in the region at up to $400 per tonne last year. Consequently application rates noted by the Mission varied considerably, ranging from 10–160 kg/ha (mean = 85 kg) for compound fertilizer, and from 30–280 kg/ha (mean = 110 kg) for urea. Using the recommended application rates and at an estimated median price of $210/t, fertilizer alone would have cost around $40/ha.11 With the exception of Dohuk, it would seem that both types of fertilizer were available on time, but farmers must have had the cash to pay for it as credit is totally absent.
Apart from uncontrolled incidents of Sunn pest (Eurygaster integriceps) in Suleimaniya that occur regularly in the autonomous region and where there has been no aerial spraying of the breeding sites for the past ten years, the major cereal pest problem was weeds. Wild oats are ubiquitous; broad-leaf weeds were noted in concentrated clusters of fields where cultivation practices were minimal and uncleaned seed stocks were used. This year’s draft conditions for MOT purchase place a 3 percent limit on adulterations for both wheat and barley, which many farmers in the northern region will find difficult to achieve.
Harvesting was underway throughout the region, and combine-harvesting operators provided the Mission with a direct source of information regarding yields in all districts visited. These data, plus key informant estimates and the Mission’s own crop-cuts, suggest average yields some 3–5 percent lower than last year in Erbil and Suleimaniya at 1.3 to 1.4 t/ha, respectively; but 27 percent lower at 1.2 t/ha in Dohuk, where rainfall was less than last year and was more poorly distributed, and very little compound fertilizer was available.
In the central region, the Mission was able to visit only three of the major irrigated grain-producing governorates, where full and frank detailed discussions were held with DOA specialists. Five on-farm case studies were completed and four focus-group discussions were held with local farmers in localities where the case studies were undertaken, during which the agricultural year was reviewed. This year the tractor fleet was enhanced with the arrival of new tractors under OFFP, which facilitated the speed and timing of cultivation. The only difficulty reported to the Mission with regard to availability of spare parts, apart from tyres, concerned the latest imported shipment of New Holland tractors, which appear to have been delivered without sufficient spare parts.
In each locality, common seedbed preparation techniques were noted as a single ploughing pass followed by hand-broadcasting of seed and fertilizer and immediate harrowing in. Crop establishment was normal and sowing rates for wheat and barley were essentially similar at around 140 kg/ha. No resowing was noted or reported, suggesting that sufficient water was available for the areas cultivated.
Designated as key production areas, the three localities visited were well supplied with inputs. Wheat seed supplies, this year, included some 50 percent of the total requirement in the form of certified seed from the three national seed agencies, with variety IBA99 apparently the most popular. The remaining wheat seeds and all the barley seeds came from farmer-saved stocks, either selected and carried over from last year’s harvest by the farmer or bought at local markets. Seeds from both sources were treated against covered smut in accordance with regulations that precluded any farmer without documents to prove the purchase of treated seed and/or seed dressing chemicals from (a) access to subsidized fertilizer and (b) access to organized markets.
Under the policies of the previous regime, and in keeping with the important levels of investment in the seeds and water supply in the central region, other input supplies to the key production governorates were assured for both farmers and entrepreneurs (provided that they had conformed to the regulations noted above). Fertilizers from the Tikrit and Basra factories, plant protection chemicals and spraying services were provided to farmers from Wassit to Nineveh at heavily subsidized rates right up to early March 2003.
Fertilizer distribution for 2002/03 cereal production, collected by the Mission from the head offices of three DOAs visited, are given below in Table 4. Assuming that all of the fertilizer was used on the estimated wheat and barley areas, provided to the Mission by the same DOA staff, at the recommended rate of 100 kg/ha, the supply was more than adequate to meet the total requirement with plenty left over for use on vegetables or to be sold.
|
compound (tonnes) |
urea (tonnes) |
area under wheat and barley (ha) |
compound t/ha |
urea t/ha |
|
| Baghdad | 12 000 | 10 000 | 90 000 | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Babylon | 11 358 | 19 575 | 100 000 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Wassit | 31 819 | 42 728 | 200 000 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Total | 55 177 | 72 303 | 390 000 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
Other inputs distributed to the same farmers at subsidized rates were herbicides and pesticides for Sunn pest. Aerial spraying of cereal crops by DOAs continued until the first week of March. The senior staff in the directorates visited informed the Mission that, given the key production status of Dyala and Tameem, farmers and entrepreneurs had received similar support under similar conditions. Further, the single case study conducted by the Mission in Nineveh confirmed that the availability of both types of fertilizers and aerial spraying also extended to rainfed farmers in the northern districts of the central region for season 2002/2003.
Harvesting in the three governorates visited is conducted using combines. The harvest had already been completed by the time the Mission arrived in the central region; however, although this unfortunately precluded the crop inspections and the crop-cutting exercises for yield estimates that were conducted in the north, it enabled meaningful discussions to be held with combine drivers, contractors and trader/haulers met en route during the field visit, the latter group coming from Dyala to deliver wheat to the silos in Wassit. Such discussions added a further dimension to the more formal contacts with the DOAs and confirmed the information received from the farmers that wheat yields of 1 tonne per donum and higher (4 t/ha or more), were the norm rather than the exception in the main command areas of all the irrigation schemes from Wassit to Dyala. Such yields are entirely in keeping with the farming system and inputs used this year. However, it is equally clear that some areas in each scheme are much less productive. Whether such areas are planted as speculative investments or as part of the widespread reclamation initiative is unclear. However, given that some 20 percent of the irrigated areas may fall into this non-productive category and that there is the probably a range of performance between the two extremes, the Mission estimates that the average yields of wheat and barley from the irrigated subsector of the central region to be in the order of 2.0 to 2.6 t/ha.12 Such yields were recognized by the DOA staff interviewed as being acceptable for this year given the improved conditions and given that these data include factors hitherto not included, where production figures have previously been based on recorded sales to state silos and have not taken into consideration wheat kept for home use for the coming season, sold privately, fed to home-based livestock, and kept for seed.
The fact that these factors had been excluded in data until now had never been explained to visiting Missions. The new era of openness experienced in the discussions at DOA and at farmer level, where unaccompanied interviews were possible, suggests that for the central region, comparisons of production data with previous years may not be particularly meaningful.
In the southern region, the Mission was able to meet DOA staff from all four governorates and hold full and frank discussions with them in Basra, Missan and Muthanna, where four on-farm case studies and farmer focus group sessions were completed. There were also opportunities to discuss the season in depth with the FAO staff in situ.
No significant change was noted this year in either the tractor fleet or in cultivation practices, except that the already old tractors are now one year older than last year. Again, tyres are difficult to find. Dependence on rented machines is noted to differ between governorates. Some 90 percent of farmers hire machines from farmer-contractors in Basra and Muthanna, compared to 70 percent in Missan. Charges were around $10/ha for each of the standard operations, namely, ploughing and harrowing following hand broadcasting of the seeds and basal dressing of fertilizer. Dry sowing was practised frequently, as the timing of the initial irrigation was reported to be unpredictable, apparently depending on the influence of the senior farmers in the command areas over the water bailiffs. No incidents of re-sowing were noted, although in the Basra farm-case studies it was observed that seed rates on the newly drained lands were twice the recommended rate, at 200 kg/ha or more, as farmers attempted both to address salinity-related germination problems and compete with the weeds.
Seed sources also varied: in Basra and Muthanna, 90 percent of the farmers used farmer-saved seed stocks carried over from last year. Mexi-pak was the predominant variety, which was said to suit the prevailing conditions. By contrast, in Missan, 40 percent of the farmers had access to improved seeds from the national seed agencies; IBA99 is the preferred variety. In accordance with the regulations, most farmers sowing their own seed used seed dressing supplied through the DOAs, and all marketed seed was also treated with the locally manufactured seed-dressing chemicals before sale.
Fertilizers distributed in three of the four governorates are shown in Table 5. The figures indicate poor levels of availability of compound fertilizer throughout the region but adequate levels of urea in Basra and Missan (although not in Muthanna). Such fertilizers were sold by DOA agents at around $30 per tonne.
|
compound (tonnes) |
urea (tonnes) |
Area under wheat and barley (ha) |
compound t/ha |
urea t/ha |
|
| Basra | 900 | 2 722 | 16 393 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Missan | 3 500 | 15 000 | 95 190 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Muthanna | 502 | 3 000 | 56 104 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Total | 4 902 | 20 722 | 167 687 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
Unlike for the central region, herbicides were available only in small quantities, not enough to make any difference to the weed problems on the established farms, let alone the serious weed problems noted in newly reclaimed lands.
Apart from weeds, rodents and birds, no other pest problems were noted this year. Soil salinity is, however, an increasing problem, which is being exacerbated by over-ambitious reclamation schemes with insufficient water and inadequate drainage. Furthermore, claims that the salinity of drainage water returning to the rivers is increasing salinity of irrigation water downstream need to be investigated. This is not, however, a new issue, and the Mission noted that farmers in the established agricultural villages in north Basra were recharging the topsoil of their intensive, year-round cereal, alfalfa and vegetable producing basins and border-strips with clean silt from the neighbouring desert areas in what was apparently a traditional practice.
Harvesting was conducted using combines in the reclaimed areas and schemes, and sickles in the smaller plots in the traditional gardens. As with the crops in the central region, the harvest was virtually over before the arrival of the Mission, thus precluding crop inspections and crop cutting. Yield estimates received from the DOAs were lower than those observed in the case studies and reported by combine drivers and owners met in the villages in Basra and Missan, ranging from 0.7 to 1.0 t/donum (2.8–4.0 t/ha). Again, this appears to be partly the result of the tradition of estimating crop yields as future sales to the state silos. Consequently, Mission estimates are again higher than estimates for 2001/2002, but at 0.9–1.6 t/ha, are much lower than those directly observed, in order to accommodate the non-productive areas that may have been included in the cereal-area data as “window dressing” in the official reports.13
Crops contributing significantly to regional agricultural production vary from north to south. In the rainfed sector with the exception of 22 000 ha of irrigated mixed orchards and some alfalfa, crops are mostly annuals. Chickpea is the most important other crop, and this year’s planting in March/April is estimated at 180 000 ha, of which 50 percent is in Suleimaniya governorate, where export contacts with Iran have evolved. Estimating average yield at a conservative 0.58 t/ha, which is the same as last year’s FAO Agricultural Statistic Unit’s (Erbil) post-harvest estimate, production will be 104 000 tonnes.
Regarding the summer season, all of which is irrigated, around 18 000 ha of sunflowers have been planted this year, which at 1.3 t/ha, the same yield as last year, will produce 23 400 tonnes of seed. Some 2 500 ha of minor crops of rice and maize are also noted to have been planted. Summer vegetables and fruits, particularly melons and watermelons, are grown in significant quantities as the most important irrigated crops; these were estimated to cover 47 000 ha in 2002. A similar level of planting is expected this year, and the Mission notes that in all three northern governorates, vegetables have either been planted or the seedbeds are under preparation.
In the centre and south, the situation is more diverse. Perennial crops in the established irrigation schemes and in the traditional villages cover an estimated 340 000 ha. These include 16.3 million date palms each producing up to 60 kg, suggesting an a potential annual harvest of up to 900 000 tonnes of dates; 16 million citrus and 10 million assorted other fruit trees present a significant annual harvest of some 400 000 tonnes. Alfalfa, with some 10 cuts per year grown in four-to-five year rotations with annual cereals and vegetables within the permanently irrigated areas, contributes significantly to the settled ruminant production system. This year, the Mission found no reasons to suggest that the normal production patterns of such crops had been disturbed; production is therefore anticipated to be similar to last year’s.
Regarding annual summer crops, the findings are different. Crops other than vegetables are conspicuously absent in the centre and south, and it is unclear whence the vegetable growers will obtain fertilizer and pesticides for the coming season. Notwithstanding the fact that the vegetable growers are more independent than the subsidized cereal growers, they still rely heavily on locally manufactured chemicals; the supplies of which to sustain the estimated 180 000 ha of assorted vegetables grown during summer are now uncertain.
None of the industrial crops usually planted in March/April have been sown, as sowing dates coincided with the outbreak of war. The fields by the roadside in the summer arable areas traversed by the Mission from Baghdad to Basra, stand empty and unprepared. Doubts were also expressed in Wassit by farmers and DOA staff regarding the wisdom of planting maize in July, given the dependence on pump-based irrigation and the present levels of availability and security of the sources of power, the absence of the usual supplies of inputs and marketing uncertainties. In Babylon and Baghdad, the farmers seemed more confident, consequently the Mission assumes that only around 50 percent of the summer maize area is likely to be sown. No information is available for rice as it is sown only in areas outside the range of visits undertaken, being banned in the key areas. Therefore a similarly conservative level of activity has been assumed for determining the cereal balance for 2003/2004. Due to uncertainties regarding input availability, especially fertilizers, yields for the two cereal crops have been equally conservatively estimated at 2.5 t/ha.
Livestock production in Iraq, – until about two months before the Mission visit, – comprised the following elements.
A significant sheep sector, based on cereal by-products, extensive grazing and varying degrees of barley grain supplements, according to proximity to the upland ranges, rainfall and terms of trade between slaughter sheep (5-month-old males) and cereal grains. In the rainfed sub-sector, grazing over young cereals also provides an early bite, before the flocks move to the ranges.
A significant goat sector, based on cereal by-products and extensive pastures, linked closely to the saltbush browsing with camels in the south, and pastoralist movements of sheep in the north.
A seasonal, small-holder dairy industry, based on indigenous breeds and crosses, stall-fed irrigated forage, particularly alfalfa and annual clovers grown in rotations with cereals and vegetables, supplemented by rations comprising barley and wheat grains, dates, soaked date-pits and straw.
A riverine, small-holder buffalo sector based on stall-fed, irrigated forage and cereal by-products.
A modern poultry sector comprising a well-organized breeding system for broilers and laying hens plus production units capable of supplying the national needs for eggs and poultry meat.
This year the good rains in the north identified in Figure 1 (see section 3.5.1) supported good pasture development throughout the rainfed sub-sector, as evinced in Table 4 (see section 3.5.3) which showed inter alia better vegetation development in Nineveh than last year. As most of the contribution from pasture to the ruminant systems is located in the northern governorates, this third reasonable year in a row will have had a cumulative effect on herd and flock rebuilding after the two drought years. By contrast, the sparse desert pastures and drained marshes of the centre and south have had poor rains, eliciting premature movement and grazing over barley fields where such movement was not possible, as noted in Wassit.
Nevertheless, as no outbreaks of viral diseases were noted by the Mission at any of the locations visited and plenty of cheap feed grains are available in all regions, it is expected that this year’s production profile from ruminants will be much the same or better than last year. Lambing percentages noted at around 60 percent and calving intervals at 18–24 months characterize the low input–low output nature of the systems that do not rely on imported materials, and which are thus much more resistant to external shocks than the imported-stock based intensive systems that have collapsed over the past 10 years.
Livestock numbers for 2003 are shown in Table 6. They have been derived from statistics compiled by the FAO Agricultural Statistics Unit in the northern governorates and the FAO-TCES specialist’s analysis of livestock numbers in May 2003 for the centre and south, updated by Mission-collected DOA data. Although lower than in 1989, these numbers reflect a reversal of the decline which occurred in the first 5 years of United Nations sanctions, when total numbers of livestock in south and central Iraq fell to 6.8 million head.
| Location | Cattle/Buffalo | Sheep | Goats |
| North | 630 000 | 4 000 000 | 2 500 000 |
| Centre/South | 1 415 000 | 6 800 000 | 1 600 000 |
| Total | 2 045 000 | 10 800 000 | 4 100 000 |
As noted above, all livestock systems in Iraq rely on supplementary feeding with cereals and/or cereal by-products to a greater or lesser extent. Mission collected data show that throughout the country, feeding practices are essentially similar, differing only in amounts fed. This year, the barley harvest and the bottom (poorer quality) end of the wheat harvest plus stored grains are highly likely to meet the nutrient requirements of the estimated ruminant population, given the levels of production anticipated.
Sheep are fed supplementary grains (usually barley but often wheat for settled flocks on mixed farms) for three months or so in winter prior to lambing. The daily ration noted ranged from 0.50–2.0 kg/head/day. Slaughter stock, that is, the male lambs sold at around 5 months old, are also fed cereal grains to some 3034 kg/head to meet the killing weights required by the internal and external markets.
Goats are not fed cereal grains, but may be fed wheat bran if it is cheaply available.
Indigenous cattle are also fed cereal grains for four or five months in the winter, again usually barley but often wheat, particularly in a poor marketing year. Rations noted varied from 2–4 kg/head/day. Some farmers with cross-bred or exotic dairy cattle provide cereal grain increments to bran-based rations, which is a practice related to milk production. However, with most large-scale dairy farms no longer functioning, this practice would seem to be rare.
Buffalo are not usually fed cereal grains; their supplementary rations are bran- and straw-based.
The sheep subsector, the most economically important, requires investment. Pastoralists must buy feed grains with cash; settled farmers either buy or use their own grains which they otherwise would have sold to generate income. The system is, therefore, cash based and its survival depends on the terms of trade between sheep and grains. As the main selling season for sheep and goat slaughter stock has yet to begin, it is difficult to predict how sheep prices will hold up. Indications in the northern governorates suggest that a local fall in prices may occur because the internal trade barriers with the centre and south no longer pertain. The local northern buyers now have easier access to the entire country of Iraq at a time when external borders are closed. Whether internal markets will be found to absorb this year’s slaughter stock for the whole of Iraq, estimated by the Mission at 2.6 million male lambs and 1.0 million male kids, given the current levels of unemployment, is cause for concern. Dramatic falls in the prices of slaughter stock will cause sheep breeders to sell more animals, including young ewes, to obtain cash for buying grain for the remainder of the flock for next winter. Such events will necessarily detract from the recovery of the livestock sector.
While intervention purchasing support systems are presently being put in place to guarantee incomes for cereal producers, no such plans appear to have been considered as yet for the sheep/goat breeders.
Apart from the disruption to pastoralist grazing routes that exacerbated the effects of the poor rains in the south, prompting the sale and grazing off of barley crops in Wassit (and possibly elsewhere in the south) in April/May, it is unlikely that the ruminant systems have been seriously directly affected by the recent war.
Concerning the state of the poultry sector, there is unfortunately, at this early stage following the cessation of formal hostilities, and the subsequent destruction and looting of state-controlled enterprises and large-scale private sector investments noted by the Mission in the southern region, no clear analysis available. The Mission notes, however, that many units are non-functional. The Mission anticipates a rapid rebuilding of this sector (which was re-established under OFFP) through a mixture of private and supported initiatives. In December 2002, FAO reports indicated that the central/southern regions were producing at least 95.0 97.5million broilers from 2.0 million breeding hens per year, and had an egg industry supported by the hatching and rearing of 4.2 million layer chicks per year, which with an 18-month layer production cycle, suggests a laying stock of 6.0 million birds. Such an industry requires not only a sophisticated infrastructure but also some 780 000 tonnes of cereals a year, plus protein and mineral/vitamin balancer. These were all previously assured to the industry, at subsidized prices, through state services that are now non-operational.
Direct effects of the war on winter cereal production are far less than might have been anticipated. The agriculture of the autonomous northern region was virtually untouched. Elsewhere, hostilities, which began in mid-March, at a time when all husbandry practices and field operations except harvesting were over, had ended by mid-April, before the harvest was due to start. Certainly access to fields was denied for a while and it has been estimated by DOA in Basra that 5–10 percent of the farmers living in the town centre but farming in projects elsewhere had to postpone or missed crucial irrigations at grain fill, causing the plants to rely on residual moisture in the soil with a concomitant reduction in yield. No retreating force removed the agricultural machinery, although a degree of looting of the large enterprises did take place, so harvesting was accomplished more or less as usual.
Direct effects of the war on the perennial crops also seem to have been minimal, given that such crops are closely interwoven with the communities and are for the most part in areas with secure water supplies.
Direct effects on summer crop production may yet prove to be very serious. Already it has been seen that industrial crops in the centre and south have not been sown, areas of maize and rice crops are likely to be reduced and fertilizers and plant protection chemicals will be in short supply for field crops and fruits and vegetables. Such difficulties will also be carried over into next winter season unless the support programmes currently being planned by FAO and others are rapidly put into action; with associated policies to guarantee the necessary energy supplies for the pump-dependent irrigation schemes.
Direct effects on the livestock industry, as understood at this stage, have been summarized in the previous section. Indirect effects of the war are affecting all sub-sectors in all regions. The whole economic basis of cereal production in the centre/south has been altered within a period of one month. With low margins and no mandatory quotas, farmers may well reduce irrigated wheat area for more profitable crops.
The two fertilizer factories are apparently out of commission, which begs the question concerning when and from where next year’s estimated 600 000 tonnes of fertilizers for cereals alone will come. Similarly, other national technical support structures are in such disarray that it will take a long time for them to be re-established to provide the services regarding improved seeds, plant protection and animal health monitoring and control.
Finally, the closure of borders and the restrictions on movement are likely to reduce the returns to arable and livestock farmers in all regions, including the northern governorates, at a time when external markets are already challenged by the strength of the OID.
Wheat and barley production estimates made by the Mission for 2002/2003 by governorate are given in Table 7a for both the 2002/2003 and the 2001/2002 harvests. This year’s estimates at 2.5 million tonnes of wheat and 1.3 million tonnes of barley are some 34 percent higher than the Mission-collected estimates for last year, derived from DOA data and FAO averages for the past 5 years, at 1.8 million tonnes of wheat and 1.0 million tonnes of barley. They are considerably higher than previous CFSAM reports during the drought and before the onset of OFFP and FAO time-series data for Iraq, which are noted to be based on recorded sales to silos, not gross production. Further analysis shows that this situation holds true only for data from the irrigated sub-sector in the centre and south, where production estimates this year are 60 percent higher for wheat in both regions, and 30–40 percent higher for barley. Wheat production in the northern governorates is 5.5 percent lower than last year and barley production is 1.5 percent higher14.
| WHEAT | BARLEY | ||||||||||||||||
| 2003 | 2002 | 2003 | 2002 | ||||||||||||||
| Area | Yield | Prod | Area | Yield | Prod | Area | Yield | Prod | Area | Yield | Prod | ||||||
| (ha) | (t/ha) | (t) | (ha) | (t/ha) | (t) | (ha) | (t/ha) | (t) | (ha) | (t/ha) | (t) | ||||||
| NORTH | 440 750 | 595 620 | 417 687 | 629 868 | 267 500 | 343 400 | 264 068 | 338 522 | |||||||||
| Erbil | 145 000 | 1.48 | 214 600 | 132 843 | 1.52 | 201 921 | 110 000 | 1.34 | 147 400 | 109 747 | 1.36 | 149 256 | |||||
| Dohuk | 132 500 | 1.20 | 159 000 | 121 519 | 1.64 | 199 291 | 35 000 | 1.12 | 39 200 | 32 044 | 1.48 | 47 425 | |||||
| Suleimaniya | 163 250 | 1.36 | 222 020 | 163 325 | |||||||||||||