Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting


FAO
FISHERIES
TECHNICAL
PAPER
410

Prof. Leonid B. Klyashtorin
Federal Institute for Fisheries and Oceanography Moscow

Rome, 2001

Table of Contents


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ISBN 92-5-104695-6

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© FAO 2001


Table of Contents


PREPARATION OF THIS DOCUMENT

1. BACKGROUND

2. DYNAMICS OF CLIMATIC AND GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

2.1 SUMMARY

3. DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC INDICES AND MAIN COMMERCIAL CATCHES

3.1 SUMMARY

4. DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL CLIMATIC INDICES AND MAIN COMMERCIAL CATCHES

4.1 SUMMARY

5. LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM TIME SERIES OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC INDICES AND FISH STOCK

5.1 LONG-TERM CLIMATIC TIME SERIES
5.2 SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF THE LONG-TERM TIME SERIES
5.3 SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF THE TIME SERIES OF THE "INSTRUMENT MEASUREMENT PERIOD"
5.4 COMPARING THE DYNAMICS OF MEASURED (DT) AND RECONSTRUCTED ("ICE CORE TEMPERATURE") TIME SERIES
5.5 SUMMARY

6. ANALYSING STATISTICAL TIME SERIES OF MAIN COMMERCIAL SPECIES

6.1 CONFORMITY OF THE CLIMATE DYNAMICS TO COMMERCIAL STOCK FLUCTUATIONS

7. ESTIMATING RELIABLE TIME SCALES TO MODEL CLIMATE AND STOCK CHANGES

7.1 SUMMARY

8. STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF THE CATCH DYNAMICS

8.1 THE FIRST APPROACH - NUMBER OF HARMONICS AND THEIR PERIODS ARE DEFINED FROM FISHERY TIME SERIES THEMSELVES
8.2 THE SECOND APPROACH - AR(2)-MODEL WITH A SINGLE CYCLIC TREND WITH THE PERIOD LENGTH TAKEN FROM THE CLIMATIC TIME SERIES
8.3 FORECASTING

9. CLIMATE AND CATCH MODELLING

9.1 MODELLING OF THE CATCH DYNAMICS OF "MERIDIONAL-DEPENDENT" FISH SPECIES
9.2 MODELLING OF THE CATCH DYNAMICS OF "ZONAL-DEPENDENT" FISH SPECIES

10. PECULIARITIES OF THE CATCH DYNAMICS OF PERUVIAN AND JAPANESE ANCHOVY AND SARDINE

10.1 ANCHOVETA
10.2 THE FORECAST
10.3 SUMMARY

11. PROBABLE CHANGES IN THE CATCHES OF MAJOR COMMERCIAL SPECIES IN VARIOUS REGIONS OF THE WORLD OCEANS

11.1 PROBABLE CHANGES OF MAJOR COMMERCIAL SPECIES IN 2000-2040.

12. CONCLUSION

13. REFERENCES

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