Mexico's macroeconomic results for 2001 were adversely affected by the deplorable events of 11 September in the United States, which not only accentuated its recession but also caused major uncertainties on the international market that are still having repercussions.
Like many of the world's economies, the Mexican economy continues to be highly dependent on the performance of economic variables in the United States, with which it conducts 40 percent of its international operations.
Mexico therefore posted differing economic variable results: a fall in national GDP of 0.3 percent, with inflation at a downward 4.5 percent; unemployment of 2.5 percent; international reserves of US$40 900 million which caused the exchange rate to appreciate throughout the year, closing at 9.16 pesos per dollar, and interest rates to fall: 28-day Treasury Certificates (CETES) at 7.36 percent real interest.
MAIN INDICATORS |
1988 |
1994 |
2000 |
2001* |
Real growth (%) |
1.3 |
4.5 |
7.0 |
-0.3 |
Inflation (end of period %) |
51.7 |
7.1 |
9.0 |
4.5 |
Exchange rate (end of period $) |
2.281 |
5.325 |
9.80 |
9.16 |
Interest rate (CETES 28, Dec) |
52.3 |
18.51 |
17.00 |
7.36 |
Fiscal balance (% of GDP) |
-10.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.8 |
-0.7 |
Current account (% of GDP) |
-3.1 |
-3.1 |
-4.5 |
2.1 |
Current account balance (US$'000 million) |
-1.3 |
-7.7 |
-3.0 |
-11.3 |
Unemployment (%) |
2.9 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
Reserves (US$ million) |
6.6 |
6.1 |
32.7 |
40.9 |
Foreign investment (US$ million) |
3 880 |
19 155 |
21 500 |
22 694.8 |
* Preliminary figures
The immediate consequence of economic recession in the United States was an excessive supply of paper, affecting the domestic industry, which had to compete with international surpluses and plummeting prices.
Excess supply combined with a dollar exchange rate considered by experts to be undervalued resulted in higher imports of 22.2 percent from 1999, against the virtual standstill of national output for this period.
Key data for Mexico's pulp and paper industry and its economic environment were as follows:
Sectoral share of GDP:
2001 % |
2000 % |
1999 % | |
Manufacturing GDP |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
Industrial GDP |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Pulp production:
2001 |
2000 |
%
change | |
Bleached fibre |
65.6 |
100.7 |
-34.9 |
Bleached short fibre |
46.1 |
127.6 |
-63.8 |
Unbleached long fibre |
26.8 |
71.2 |
-62.4 |
Bagasse pulp |
174.4 |
199.8 |
-12.7 |
Thermo-mechanical |
42.2 |
36.1 |
16.9 |
Chemical thermo-mechanical |
29.8 |
46.7 |
-36.2 |
Total |
384.9 |
582.1 |
-33.8 |
Total consumption of fibre materials:
% of total | ||
2001 |
2000 | |
National virgin fibres |
9.1 |
13.1 |
Imported virgin fibres |
11.3 |
6.6 |
Subtotal virgin fibres |
20.4 |
19.7 |
National secondary fibres |
51.8 |
52.9 |
Imported secondary fibres |
27.8 |
27.4 |
Subtotal secondary fibres |
79.6 |
80.3 |
Total fibres |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Paper production:
Grade of paper |
2001 |
2000 thousand t |
%
change |
Newsprint |
238.7 |
254.8 |
-6.3% |
Bond |
658.4 |
688.3 |
-4.3% |
Total writing and printing |
897.1 |
943.0 |
-4.9% |
Sacks, bags and wrapping |
207.5 |
230.4 |
-9.9% |
Containerboard |
1 643.3 |
1 649.3 |
-0.4% |
Folding boxboard |
342.3 |
355.6 |
-3.7% |
Total packaging |
2 193.5 |
2 235.3 |
-1.9% |
Tissues |
688.7 |
691.2 |
-0.4% |
Specialty papers |
31.3 |
27.4 |
14.2% |
Total production |
3 810.6 |
3 897.0 |
-2.2% |
There was a reduction in output of most grades of paper produced in Mexico with the exception of specialty papers which had an increase of 14.2 percent, marginal however in terms of volume as from a very small starting base. Overall production fell by 2.2 percent from 2000.
Aggregate paper production for 2001 amounted to 3 810 000 tonnes, a decline that contrasted sharply with the growth in imports of 5.5 percent for the same period (but 22.2 percent from 1999 to 2001). Imports totalled 1 708 000 tonnes and represented 44.8 percent of national production.
The breakdown for paper imports is as follows:
Grade of paper |
2001 |
2000 |
1999 |
%
change |
Newsprint |
190.3 |
175.4 |
172.2 |
8.5% |
Bond paper |
373.7 |
356.2 |
297.2 |
4.9% |
Total writing and printing |
564.0 |
531.6 |
469.4 |
6.1% |
Sacks, bags and wrapping |
70.4 |
62.4 |
49.6 |
12.8% |
Containerboard |
583.3 |
537.5 |
421.2 |
8.5% |
Folding boxboard |
66.9 |
59.6 |
57.9 |
12.2% |
Bleached kraft boxboard |
66.2 |
57.4 |
98.0 |
15.3% |
Total packaging |
786.8 |
716.9 |
626.7 |
9.8% |
Tissues |
88.5 |
67.2 |
48.5 |
31.7% |
Specialty papers |
269.4 |
303.3 |
253.0 |
-11.2% |
Total imports |
1 708.7 |
1 619.0 |
1 397.6 |
5.5% |
The breakdown of exports is as follows:
GRADE of paper |
2001 |
2000 |
1999 |
%
change |
Newsprint |
21.0 |
25.8 |
30.3 |
-18.6% |
Bond paper |
13.4 |
17.6 |
24.7 |
-23.9% |
Total writing and printing |
34.4 |
43.4 |
55.0 |
-20.7% |
Sacks, bags and wrapping |
8.0 |
2.9 |
7.1 |
175.9% |
Containerboard |
18.6 |
23.8 |
40.1 |
-21.8% |
Folding boxboard |
39.4 |
34.3 |
35.6 |
14.9% |
Total packaging |
66.0 |
61.0 |
82.8 |
8.2% |
Tissues |
104.5 |
98.8 |
90.2 |
5.8% |
Specialty papers |
1.9 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
-20.8% |
Total exports |
206.8 |
205.6 |
230.4 |
-0.6% |
Apparent consumption of paper rose slightly in absolute terms, largely underpinned by imports.
Imports are undoubtedly being strongly driven by the exchange rate: the continued undervaluation of the dollar and thus appreciation of the peso. This will place the sector under continuing pressure from higher imports, especially under the present conditions of international surplus of paper supply.
