SPECIAL REPORT

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION

TO ANGOLA

25 July 2003

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING
• 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2002/03
• 4. SITUATION BY REGION/PROVINCE
• 5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION
• 6. EMERGENCY/RECOVERY FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENT

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Angola from 15 May to 10 June, 2003. The mission’s objective was to assess the 2003 crop production and the cereal import requirements, including food aid, for the 2003/04 marketing year (April-March). The mission was briefed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINADER), Ministry of Social Assistance and Reintegration (MINARS), and by the FAO and WFP country teams. Field visits were made to 8 of the country’s 18 provinces over a period of two weeks, together with officers from the Food Security Unit of MINADER and observers from the European Union. An observer from SADC joined the mission in its final phase in Luanda.

The Mission was divided into two groups for the field visits, one visiting the provinces of Malange, Uige, and Moxico, while the other visited Luanda, Bengo, Bié, Huambo, and Huila, covering the northern, central, and southern regions. The new stability of the country made travelling this time safer and easier than in previous missions, and allowed for more visits to the agricultural areas of the provinces. Information on the situation in the provinces not visited was provided to the Mission by the Food Security Unit of MINADER, WFP/VAM, and the offices of NGOs with projects in the country.

Since April 2002, when a cease-fire agreement was signed between UNITA and the Government, a large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) have returned to their original areas. The majority of these people are farmers. Some started moving back to their lands immediately after the signing of the agreement, others followed later, and the flow is still going on. Refugees who had settled in neighbouring countries are also returning to their regions in Angola. For a number of reasons, not all returnees were on time to cultivate their land and they participated in the 2002/03 agricultural year by working on the land of resident farmers.

Agricultural performance in 2002/03 has improved. Rains were abundant and well distributed throughout the country, except in some southern provinces. The area cropped in main food crops is estimated by the mission at about 2.56 million hectares, 14 percent higher than last year’s figure. This increase can be explained by the good prospects brought about by early rains, but mainly by the fact that returnee farmers worked on the lands of resident farmers. Substantial provision of agricultural inputs by the Government and international agencies, as well as renewed access to markets, also contributed to this year’s improved food production.

The mission forecasts the 2003 cereal production at 670 249 tonnes, 23 percent higher than last year reflecting both an increase in cropped areas and better yields. Cereals include maize (545 150 tonnes), and sorghum and millet (97 402 tonnes). Production of cassava, the main staple food in the North, is estimated slightly above last year, at some 5.7 million tonnes (fresh weight).

The cereal import requirement for marketing year 2003/04 (April/March) is estimated at 709 000 tonnes, lower than last year’s level. Of that total, 490 000 tonnes are anticipated to be imported commercially, leaving 219 000 tonnes to be covered by food aid.

The number of people in urgent need of food assistance is estimated at 1.4 million, basically the same figure as last year’s, because the reduction in internally displaced people (IDPs) has been offset by refugees arriving from neighbouring countries as well as by demobilised ex-soldiers. Internal and external returnees (retornados) make up one-half the population still in need of food assistance (869 700). The other vulnerable groups in terms of access to food are: (i) IDPs who have resettled in areas which are not their areas of origin (80 400); (ii) vulnerable social groups (about 201 600); (iii) people who became IDPs after October 2001 including a large number in some provinces since the cease-fire (160 400); and vulnerable residents, still in need of food assistance (89 000).¹ WFP plans to assist 1.03 million people, 18 percent less than last year, including 610 400 returnees. The food aid requirements of this population amount to 161 000 tonnes of cereals, 17 800 tonnes of pulses and smaller quantities of oil, corn-soya blend, sugar and salt. The remaining needy population will have to be assisted by other humanitarian agencies.

2. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING

Angola has a total area of 1.247 million square kilometres and a 2003 estimated population close to 15 million. The country is endowed with substantial natural resources, which include extensive reserves of oil and gas, valuable minerals, particularly diamonds, and an important hydroelectric potential from numerous rivers. It has a vast agricultural potential in its 5 to 8 million hectares of arable land. Soils are fertile in the northern region and central highlands, where annual rainfall normally exceeds 1000 mm. Livestock is mostly found in the south, which receives lower rainfall and is also less populated than the rest of the country. The country also has vast marine and river resources, particularly fisheries, as well as an extensive forestry sector. In spite of this potential, a high percentage of the Angolan population is living below the poverty line. The civil war that began after independence in 1975 and continued up to April 2002 was the major cause of social instability and economic disruption.

Real GDP growth is expected to remain at 6 percent in both 2003 and 2004, mainly due to rising oil production, forecast at 920 000 barrels/day in 2003 and 965 000 barrels/day in 2004². Oil accounts for 85 to 90 percent of fiscal revenues and 61 percent of GDP. Exports are projected to be around US$ 8.5 billion in 2003, while the imports will be around US$ 4.1 billion. However, the war situation, together with inadequate economic policies, have resulted in high levels of inflation, estimated to be between 115 and 125 percent for the last two years, a figure likely to be maintained in the near future.

Agriculture accounts for only 7 percent of GDP but is a fundamental activity in a country with a large rural population and a small industrial sector (besides oil), because it is the main source of employment and food supplies. Among the food crops, cassava predominates in the north; maize is the main food staple in the central highlands, while millet and sorghum are the most important cereals in the drier southern regions. Livestock are only important in the south. Prior to independence (1975), food production was high and the country was an exporter of maize and coffee.

During the conflict, agriculture fell to an almost subsistence level in many areas, with little or no marketable surpluses and very limited trade activity. Consequently, the country has for many years relied on food imports, both commercial imports of wheat and rice, and food aid mostly in the form of maize and beans. With the cease-fire, however, and the new mobility of people and products throughout the country, the activity of local markets has been revitalised and is growing steadily. In all areas visited by the mission it was commonly found that both the supply and the variety of goods in local markets have increased substantially from last year’s levels.

The country’s agricultural potential plus the return of farmers to their land is likely to improve the food situation rapidly, if favourable climate conditions continue to hold. It is possible and probable that, in the near future, Angola will no longer need food assistance from abroad and will be even capable of keeping strategic stocks of food for any eventual crisis or natural disaster. However, there is still much to be done in terms of agricultural rehabilitation and development. Most of the peasant population use only the hoe and the machete as tools. Only in the south is there use of draught animals. There is an overall lack of organisation both to produce and to market surpluses.

The country’s potential to produce food should not divert attention from the immense task of social and economic development still to be accomplished. Social conditions of rural populations are very poor. Although resident farmers are presently in a much better situation than returnee farmers, the overall picture is still far from satisfactory. It is estimated that only 5 to 7 percent of rural villages and towns have a latrine system. Health clinics and health personnel are scarce everywhere. Foreign NGOs, churches, and other organisations run the few medical facilities in the countryside. About 80 percent of the population do not have access to essential drugs. Malaria, measles, tuberculosis, and other diseases account for most of the infant and adult mortality. A national vaccination campaign against measles has just taken place, covering 53 percent of the target population. Water is often not safe for drinking and may be carried from long distances.

The annual rate of growth of the population is 3 percent while life expectancy is 46.6 years. The infant mortality rate is 150/1000 live births, and the mortality rate for children under 5 is 250/1000. Malnutrition and its effects are visible all over the country. The overall literacy rate is 42 percent, with 56 percent for males and 28 percent for females. Rural schools do not function properly due to lack of materials, food for the students, and teachers. Although in many parts of the country houses are made of adobe bricks and look solid, the housing situation is precarious and inadequate, especially in relation to the average size of rural families. In all respects, a massive development effort is needed.

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2002/03

3.1 Cropping systems

Angolan agriculture is almost entirely rainfed. There are three main agro-ecological zones. The Northern Region is characterised by a humid tropical climate, with an annual rainfall over 2000 mm. The main crop is cassava, which occupies about 77 percent of the area planted (or 493 202 hectares); the remaining 24 percent is taken by other traditional crops such as maize, beans, millet, groundnuts, and sweet potato, all of them intercropped.

The Central region has a temperate tropical climate modified by altitude, which ranges from 1000 to over 2500 meters above sea level. This high plateau is characterised by an annual rainfall from 1250 mm to 1500 mm. The main crops are maize (677 070 hectares), mostly planted together with other traditional crops such as beans, sorghum/millet, groundnuts, sweet potato, and Irish potato. Upland rice is cultivated in small areas, as part of a Government-sponsored production campaign. At the household level, livestock mostly consists of a few heads of cattle, goats, sheep, pigs and chicken.

The Southern region is largely characterised by a dry climate, ranging from tropical desert (Namibe) to tropical dry (Cunene), with low annual rainfall (20 mm average). The predominant crop is sorghum and/or millet, which cover about 80 percent of the total area planted (about 222 000 hectares). The remaining 20 percent of land utilisation includes maize, inter-cropped with beans, groundnuts, and sweet potato. Livestock rearing is a parallel activity, with families usually keeping a few heads of cattle, goats and/or sheep, pigs, and chicken.

The Northern and Central regions have two rainy seasons: September to December and February to April. In the Southern region, there is only one season, from October to March, with planting taking place from October to December. During the dry season, farmers plant in low areas called “Nakas”, which are close to the water tables and allow the root systems to reach moisture easily. Most common crops are maize, beans and vegetables. In Benguela and Huambo provinces, there is irrigated agriculture in very limited areas.

3.2 Rainfall

Reports on rainfall patterns were provided by the agro-meteorological stations of MINADER, which were complemented with satellite information and interviews with farmers and extension workers during the field visits. Rains in the 2002/2003 cropping season started in the first days of September in the Northern region; in October in the Central Region; and in November in the Southern region. Overall, Angola experienced normal to above normal rainfall during the season. In spite of a slight delay of the beginning of the rains in some areas, precipitation was well distributed in about three quarters of the country, with the exception of the Southern coastal region (Namibe, Cunene, and Kuando Kubango provinces). As a result, crop performance was generally good in all regions, but in the coastal areas of Southern region, insufficient and irregular precipitation caused yield reductions. Pasture and livestock also benefited from the adequate rains of the season and are in satisfactory conditions.

3.3 Supply of agricultural inputs

During the 2002/2003 agricultural year, 2 062 tonnes of seeds (cereals, pulses, groundnuts and vegetables) and 526 000 hand tools (hoes, machetes, and files) were provided by UN agencies, especially FAO, 13 NGOs and MINADER, to about 355 820 families in 14 provinces. Most of the beneficiaries were vulnerable families returning to their own areas. However, resident populations also benefited from these inputs.

The Mission was informed that MINADER also distributed limited quantities of fertilisers and pesticides. Very small amounts of fertilisers and imported vegetable seeds were on sale in local rural markets but plant protection chemicals were not available. Even if these inputs were available in larger quantities, only a small segment of the rural communities could afford to buy them. Agricultural machinery for cultivation (tractors) have been greatly reduced in numbers because of the war. In areas with livestock (Huila Province), the use of animal traction is a common practice.

Availability of seeds and other inputs will contribute strongly to the expansion of the area under cultivation in the next season. A serious effort will have to be made by the Government and international agencies to supply seeds for 2003/04 cropping season, in order to meet as much as possible the requirements of newly resettled families and residents. Attention should be given to the possibility of acquiring and distributing locally produced seeds, which could help the local economies.

3.4 Area planted

The total area planted to the main foodcrops in 2002/03 is estimated at about 2.56 million hectares, 14 percent higher than in 2001/02. The area planted to cereals increased by 14 percent, mainly due to an expansion of maize plantings, and that to cassava by 9 percent. A number of factors have contributed to such increases: the good rains of the season, the flow of IDPs back to their areas of origin after April 2002, the supply of seeds and tools to farmers and the new access to markets.

Table 1 shows the total area cultivated by resident and returnee farmers during 2002/03. Tables 2 and 3 provide the same information by region and province.

Table 1 – Area under cultivation in 2001/02 and 2002/03 (hectares)

Source: Food Security Department – Ministry of Agriculture (GSA/MINADER). Population Statistics: Angola National Institute of Statistics (INS). OCHA confirmed numbers of returnees.

3.5 Crop Yields

During the visits to the provinces, the Mission observed that the estimation of yields is not carried out on a regular, systematic basis by any of the parties involved in Angolan agriculture. It is, therefore, essential that MINADER, NGOs and UN agencies join efforts to undertake regular yield measurements of the main crops.

The good and evenly distributed rains in most of the country this season contributed to an increase in yields for cereal and other crops (beans, groundnuts, cassava, sweet potato and Irish potato). However, in the Southern region yields were adversely affected by insufficient rains, particularly in Cunene and, to a lesser extent, in Kuando Kubango and Namibe provinces (Table 2).

3.6 Production forecast

Information from a variety of sources was used by the Mission to estimate crop production for the 2002/03 agricultural year. They include estimates on farming families, areas under cultivation, rainfall patterns, satellite imagery, yields, production and others, prepared by the Food Security Unit (GSA) of MINADER, UN agencies, NGOs, and the Mission’s own findings during interviews and field trips.

During the 2002/03 cropping year, there were no major setbacks to crop establishment and development. With the exception of some pocket areas, where agricultural production was affected by inaccessibility (lack of roads, bridges, presence of landmines) and insufficient rains in the Southern region (Namibe, Cunene, and Kuando Kubango Provinces), crop performance was satisfactory throughout the country.

The Mission estimates the 2003 cereal harvest (maize, sorghum, millet and rice) at 670 249 tonnes, some 23 percent above last year.

Production of maize is estimated at 545 150 tonnes an increase of 28 percent, reflecting an increase of 21 percent in both the area planted and yields. However, production of sorghum and millet decreased 18 percent from 2001/02 to 97 402 tonnes due to reduced yields in central and southern parts.

Production of cassava, 84 percent of which is produced in northern areas, is forecast slightly above last year’s level at 5.7 million tonnes. Bean production at 66 121 tonnes is 14 percent higher than in 2001/02.

The Government (MINADER) is promoting rice cultivation in Lunda Norte, Lunda Sul, Huambo and Moxico provinces, through the establishment of rice seed multiplication plots. It is expected that for next year, rice cultivation would be extended to other provinces.

Table 2 – Areas, yields, and production of main cereal crops in 2002/03

Source: Food Security Department – Ministry of Agriculture (GSA/MINADER) and Mission estimates 2003.

3.7 Other crops

In the high rainfall areas of the northern and central regions, a wide variety of other crops are grown, notably beans, groundnuts, sweet potatoes and Irish potatoes, bananas, mango, and other fruits. With this year’s normal to above normal rains in most of the country, production of these crops has increased.

MINADER also has a multiplication project for Irish Potato in Huambo Province. The Mission observed 164 tonnes of Irish potato planting materials being prepared for distribution, with the objective of restoring and expanding the cultivation of this crop in this province.

In the Central region, vegetable crops are mainly grown in the bottom of valleys, along river banks, during the dry season (Nakas).

Table 3 – Areas, yields and production of other main crops in 2002/03

Source: Food Security Department – Ministry of Agriculture (GSA/MINADER) and Mission estimates 2003.

Table 4 – Production of cereals from 1997/98 to 2002/03 ('000 tonnes)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture (GSA/MINADER) and Mission estimates 2003.

3.8 Livestock

During the war years, there was a substantial decline in livestock numbers throughout the country. This situation has just started to change: there are slow improvements in the availability of meat in the markets. Small-scale livestock re-stocking has been initiated by some international NGOs (CARE International, CRS and OIKOS).

Livestock rearing is an important activity in the southern and central provinces. Huila province, one of the less affected by the armed conflict, has one of the largest herds of cattle, sheep, and goats in the country. Water and pastures are abundant in this province, as well as the fodder obtained from crop residues.

Health conditions of livestock have been reported to be good. Although most drugs and vaccines for livestock are not available and veterinarian services are very scarce, there seems to have been no major disease outbreaks other than the normal levels of internal and external parasites and tick-borne diseases. The Mission noted that there is an urgent need to establish appropriate slaughter houses in the provinces.

Table 5 – Estimates of livestock populations in 2002/03

Source: MINADER – Livestock Directorate (March 2003)

3.9 Fisheries

Fishing takes place along the 1 650 km of Angolan coastline, involving 6 provinces (Cabinda, Bengo, Luanda, Kuanza Sul, Benguela and Namibe), 18 municipalities, and some 21 131 fishermen. Fish catch during last year is estimated at some 121 600 tonnes (Table 6).

The fisheries sector has an enormous potential for development, with good prospects in both the domestic and external markets. Locally, fish is consumed fresh, smoked and salted. River fish supply, however, declined to minimum levels during the armed conflict and is just beginning to recover. Although river fisheries data were not available, it is estimated that this sector is recovering rapidly because of the large numbers of people returning to their areas of origin since April 2002.

Table 6 – Fish Production (tonnes) 2002/03

Source: Ministry of Fisheries (June 2003)

4. SITUATION BY REGION/PROVINCE

4.1 Northern Region

The Northern Region has nine provinces: Cabinda, Zaire, Uige, Bengo, Luanda, Kuanza Norte, Malange, Lunda Norte and Lunda Sul. It is Angola’s second most fertile region. Root crops (cassava and sweet potatoes) occupy about 70 percent of the planted area. The remaining 30 percent is taken by cereals (about 20 percent) and other crops such as groundnuts and vegetables. According to data on actual rains provided by MINADER and remote sensing information, rains in the region presented a regular and uniform distribution pattern, which contributed to a good overall cropping season.

Cabinda

Information provided by MINADER indicates good rains during the growing season. This was confirmed by satellite images. Main crops are cassava, maize, and beans. Land preparation took place in time. No agricultural inputs were distributed by FAO or NGOs in the province. No incidence of pests was reported. With a total area planted to maize of 7 910 hectares, total cereals production is estimated at 5 142 tonnes (29 percent increase from last year).

Zaire

Remote sensing data and reports from MINADER indicate that rains had a good distribution pattern throughout the cropping season. Maize, cassava, beans, groundnuts and sweet potatoes are the main crops in the province. No incidence of crop pests or diseases was reported. Distributions of agricultural inputs by FAO and NGOs targeted 4 481 families. A total of 8 730 hectares were planted with cereals and there is a total estimated maize production of 5 675 tonnes (11 percent increase from last year).

Uige

Dekadal rainfall data from satellite images confirm MINADER’s report that the past cropping season in Uige was better than last year’s. Agricultural inputs were distributed by FAO to 17 686 families. The main crops are cassava, maize, beans and sweet potatoes. Maize comes second to cassava in terms of area planted. Total cereal production was estimated at 27 516 tonnes (21 percent increase from last year).

Bengo

Cumulative rainfall data from satellite images confirm that rainfall was above normal, with a regular distribution. Cassava is the major food crop in the province. Other crops include beans, maize, banana, Irish potato and sweet potato. Assistance with seeds and tools was provided to both residents and displaced persons by FAO, benefiting 3 507 families. Total maize production is estimated at 4 457 tonnes (4 percent increase from last year).

Luanda

Rainfall was slightly lower than previous year, but it had a regular and uniform distribution pattern. Maize, cassava, sweet potatoes and beans are the main crops, as well as vegetables. No distribution of seeds and tools was undertaken in this province. A total of 11 234 hectares of maize were planted, with production of 6 179 tonnes (33 percent increase from last year).

Kuanza Norte

Remote sensing data indicate that rains for this cropping season were adequate, with a uniform distribution throughout the province, with the exception of Cambambe and Cazengo municipalities. Cassava is the major food crop; other crops include beans, maize, banana, Irish potato and sweet potato. Assistance with seeds and tools was provided to both residents and displaced persons by FAO, benefiting 8 156 families.

Malange

Cumulative rainfall data from satellite images confirms MINADER’s reports that rains were sufficient and regularly distributed throughout the season, especially around Malange and Cagandala municipalities. Most of the families and local officials interviewed mentioned that this growing season was better than last year’s. FAO provided seeds and tools to both residents and displaced persons, benefiting 27 205 families. Maize, cassava, beans , groundnuts and sweet potato are the main food crops. Total maize production is estimated at 15 073 tonnes (41 percent increase).

Lunda Norte

Rainfall frequency and quantity have contributed to a better agricultural year than last year’s. Cassava, groundnuts, sweet potato, and maize did well. No agricultural inputs were distributed by FAO or NGOs in the province.

Lunda Sul

Rains this cropping season were considered good with a uniform distribution pattern, which allowed farmers to initiate planting of crops in due time throughout the province (September). Cassava is the major food crop; other crops include beans, maize, sweet potato, groundnuts and vegetables. Maize is normally eaten fresh. FAO distributed seeds and tools to both residents and displaced persons, benefiting 7 365 families. Total production for maize in this province has been estimated at 4 449 tonnes (24 percent increase from last year).

4.2 Central Region

The Central Region has five provinces: Kuanza Sul, Benguela, Huambo, Bie and Moxico. It is the country’s most fertile region, accounting for about 57 percent of cereal production. During the past growing season, rains were slightly above normal, with a regular distribution pattern, which contributed to an overall good cropping season. The main crop is maize. Due to a lack of financial and technical resources, there is no use of fertilisers, manure, or crop rotation practices. This has resulted in poor soil fertility, especially around towns. Livestock is reported to be in good condition although there is a dearth of veterinary services and drugs/vaccines. The good harvests have produced more than usual quantities of fodder for the animals.

Kuanza Sul

Remote sensing data indicates that rains during this past growing season was slightly higher than last year’s, with a uniform distribution pattern. This province is characterised by a tropical humid climate inland and a tropical dry climate along the coast. Maize, beans, cassava and groundnuts are the major crops. FAO provided seeds and tools to both residents and displaced persons, benefiting 18 922 families.

Benguela

Remote sensing data indicate that rainfall for this cropping season was good and had a regular distribution, which has contributed to a satisfactory crop performance. Maize, sorghum, millet, cassava and beans are the main crops. FAO provided seeds and tools to both residents and displaced persons, benefiting 21 662 families. In the coastal zone, only irrigated agriculture is possible as the normal annual precipitation does not exceeds 250 mm. Total cereal production (maize and sorghum/millet) is estimated at 71 656 tonnes (or 64 percent increase from last year, due largely to an expansion of area planted, rather than yield increase).

Huambo

Data from satellite images confirm MINADER’s reports that rains during the growing season were sufficient and presented a uniform distribution pattern. This resulted in good crop development and performance for most crops. FAO provided seeds and tools to both residents and displaced persons, benefiting 86 617 families. Major crops in this province, include maize, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, Irish potato and sweet potato. The total maize production is estimated at 163 773 tonnes (15 percent higher than last year’s).

Bie

Rains were sufficient and timely and had a uniform distribution pattern, which benefited good crop development. FAO provided seeds and tools to both residents and displaced persons, benefiting 72 753 families. Major crops include maize, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, Irish potato and sweet potato. At the time of the Mission’s visit, first season crops had already been harvested (maize, beans, sorghum, groundnuts, and cassava). Maize and bean crops are planted in a mixed-crop cultivation in the first planting season (October/January) and harvest was completed in January 2003. For the second planting season (March/June), the bean crop was the predominant crop and harvest was underway at the time of the Mission. Total cereal production is estimated at 65 940 tonnes (or 18 percent increase from last year’s harvest).

Moxico

Cumulative rainfall data derived from satellite images, indicate that rains were slightly higher than average, presenting a regular distribution. Maize, beans, groundnuts and cassava are the main crops in the province and good agricultural production is expected this year. Assistance with seeds and tools was provided to both residents and displaced persons by FAO, benefiting 53 932 families. The Government (MINADER) provided 30 tonnes of cereal seed and hand tools for 2 000 families. However, in spite of this support, there are pockets of food insecurity in the municipalities of Moxico, Alto Zambeze and Luchazes (about 12 500 returnees and 4 100 vulnerable residents). Total maize production is estimated at 10 994 tonnes (or 31 percent increase over last year’s).

4.3 Southern Region

The Southern Region includes four provinces: Namibe, Huila, Cunene, and Kuando Kubango. Sorghum is the predominant crop, occupying about 60 percent of the land under cultivation. The other main crops are maize and millet (15 percent), beans (15 percent) and groundnuts (10 percent).

The rainy season started late and rainfall distribution was erratic, leading to partial failure and in some cases complete loss, of sorghum, millet, maize, and bean crops in some provinces. However, in others rains were normal and good crops were obtained. Overall, the area planted to cereals increased due to new arrivals of people returning to their areas of origin but yields were reduced by the poor rains in parts. The food situation in this region should be monitored closely in the coming months.

Namibe

Rains were slightly higher than last year’s. FAO or NGOs made no distributions of seeds and tools in this province, but MINADER distributed 115 tonnes of fertilisers, 25 tonnes of seeds, 3000 hand tools, and 530 ploughs. Total cereal production in the province is estimated at 4 966 tonnes (or 21 percent increase) which is mainly due to an increase in area planted by returning populations.

Huila

Rains this year were higher than last year’s. In the Northern municipalities the rainy period started in September (Caluquembe and Quilengues). However, in most municipalities rains started in October with a regular distribution until March, and were average to above average. Several humanitarian agencies distributed agricultural inputs in 10 municipalities (out of a total of 14), targeting some 30 000 resident, IDPs, and returnee families. FAO assisted 13 941 families. These targeted distributions had a positive contribution to agricultural production in most parts of the province. However, food reserves (cereals and pulses) of resident families are estimated to last up to 7 months after the harvest period in May/June. IDPs and returnee families who arrived before last October and managed to plant plots ranging between 1 to 2 hectares are estimated to have 6 months of food reserves. Families who planted plots ranging from 0.5 to 1 hectare, are considered the most vulnerable since their food reserves are estimated to last only between 2 to 4 months. These people would need almost immediate food assistance and are mostly located in Cacula, Caluquembe, Jamba, Kuvango, Quilengues, Caconda, and Matala municipalities. Total maize production in this province is estimated at 118 874 tonnes (a 23 percent increase from last year).

Cunene

Rainfall data indicate that rains were lower than last year’s. The main crops cultivated in the province include sorghum, millet, maize and beans. There were no distributions of agricultural inputs by NGOs or FAO in this province. Total cereal production for this season is estimated at 19 940 tonnes (a 33 percent reduction from last year, confirming adverse effects of scattered and insufficient rains).

Kuando Kubango

Cumulative rainfall data from satellite images confirm that rains were lower than in the previous year. The irregular rainfall pattern in most of the municipalities of Kuando Kubango Province, adversely affected crop development and yield performance (sorghum, millet and cassava). Assistance with seeds and tools was provided to both residents and displaced persons by FAO benefiting 19 593 families. Total cereal production is estimated at 30 965 tonnes (a 16 percent reduction from last year), of which 18 973 tonnes are sorghum and millet.

5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

5.1 Access to food and prices

The war in Angola caused massive population displacements and affected people’s capacity to produce and access food. Millions had to move from their rural areas to Luanda and provincial capitals in search of safe havens and living opportunities. Throughout the country, the conflict disrupted marketing activities and the price system. Depreciation of the national currency reached 100 percent between March 2001 and May 2002 and inflation has been between 100 and 125 percent for the last three years.

The April 2002 cease-fire agreement has changed the face of the nation: many former IDPs and refugees have returned, or are still returning, to their original areas; people and goods can now move around the country with increasing facility. The past agricultural season was favourable and now there is more locally produced food in the market.

Although traders and merchants are now able to move around without fear of losing their goods from acts of war, access beyond provincial capitals into the municipalities and outlying rural areas remains quite difficult. After 30 years of war, poor roads, broken bridges and the threat of land mines are major obstacles to the movement of goods and circulation of people. This is specially so during the rainy season when many roads which are passable during the dry season become impassable for several months of the year. Thus, although movement along the main transport corridors from the coastal belt to the interior are now open, much remains to be done before normal trade is fully restored. High transport and capital costs also hinder trade in agricultural commodities as traders tend to favour goods which are high in value, low in unit weight and for which there is a very high turnover – such as small industrial consumer items, i.e., clothes, soap, cigarettes, tinned goods and other processed foodstuffs.

The market for basic foodstuffs therefore remains fragmented. There is some apparent linkage between prices along the main transport corridors, but even along these corridors, price differentials can remain high over extended periods of time. In Kuito and Huambo the prices of basic foodstuffs have followed the normal seasonal downward trend during the first quarter of 2003, and are significantly lower than they were during the same period of 2002. The average cost of a basic food basket, sufficient to provide a family of five with 2 100 kilocalories per person per day for 30 days, which averaged US$ 30.36 during the period Jan-March 2002, was US$ 20.22 for the same period during 2003, a decline of 33 percent. By contrast, in Huila, the average cost of a basic food basket was 15 percent higher than during the first quarter of 2002.

In general, prices are still considered high for the purchasing power of the majority of the population.

5.2 Cereal supply/demand balance, 2003/04

Table 7 below presents a forecast of the cereal supply/demand position for the 2003/04 (April/March). Data on cassava (fresh weight) is also presented in order to show the importance of this crop in Angola. Cassava is the main staple food in the Northern provinces and its consumption is increasing in the Central and Southern provinces.

Table 7 - Food balance sheet for marketing year 2003/2004 (‘000 tonnes)

Because Angolan agriculture is still recovering from the war years, it is assumed that there are still no stocks of coarse grains in the rural areas. Stock drawdown of rice reflects large imports last year and a Japanese donation still being distributed.

The national cereal consumption requirement has been calculated on the basis of a mid-marketing year population of 14.769 million, calculated from the reviewed population series elaborated by the National Institute of Statistics. The annual per capita cereal consumption rate used in the previous assessments has been revised upwards to 86.3 kg (from 78.2 kg) to reflect increases in consumption associated with higher imports of wheat and rice in the past years, as well as this season’s 23 percent growth in cereal production. The consumption figure takes also into account food aid rations for 1.4 million people, who will depend on food aid until mid-2004. Other uses of cereals include seed retention, animal feed, and post-harvest losses, which are estimated at 20 percent of total coarse grain production, about 10 percent for rice, and about 30 percent for cassava.

The cereal import requirement is estimated at 709 000 tonnes, below last year’s level because domestic supplies have risen this year. Commercial imports reflect the growing trends in recent years and expectations expressed by traders to the Mission in view of the new mobility within the country. They include 20 000 tonnes of maize, 90 000 of rice, and 380 000 tonnes of wheat.

Food aid imports, 219 000 tonnes, are basically the same as last year’s, because the number of people to be assisted remains the same at 1.4 million. Of these, WFP will assist 1 027 500 people with 161 081 tonnes of cereals. The remaining about 58 000 will be brought into the country by other humanitarian agencies working in Angola.

6. EMERGENCY/RECOVERY FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENT

6.1 Background

With the signing of the cease-fire between UNITA military forces and the Government on 4 April 2002, Angola has entered a new period of peace, but the humanitarian situation remains of concern. Access to areas and populations previously cut off due to the war and the quartering of nearly half a million ex-UNITA troops and their families resulted in a sharp increase in WFP’s caseload in the months immediately following the cease-fire. Between May and October 2002 the caseload rose from around 900 000 to 1.8 million and WFP established more than 70 new extended delivery points.

However, the onset of the rains in the last quarter of 2002 resulted in many areas becoming inaccessible due to poor roads, broken bridges and land mine incidents. WFP’s caseload fell again and between October 2002 and February 2003 almost half a million people in need of food assistance became temporarily inaccessible. From the second quarter of 2003 access to these areas has improved and despite the harvest, the number of people in need of food assistance has started to rise again.

Further significant movements of IDPs and refugees returning to their areas of origin, as well as demobilised soldiers and their dependants, are expected within 2003, with most of these expected to take place before the end of the planting season in October. At the time of the mission only one of the Quartering Areas for the ex-UNITA soldiers and their families remained open and this is expected to close before the planting season. Although precise numbers are not available, it is estimated that during 2003 up to 170 000 refugees will return from neighbouring countries to re-establish their lives in Angola. Some 50 000 will return in the context of the UNHCR formal repatriation programme, which will begin in June 2003. Most of the refugee and ex-military caseload will be supported within the recovery category, as it is expected that they will return to their area of origin or re-settle in other locations. Most of the IDP caseload at present supported through relief food distributions will gradually shift into the return and resettlement component within 2003, or fall off the WFP caseload after two consecutive harvests.

During the almost four weeks spent in the country, from 15 May to 10 June, the Mission had the opportunity to discuss all aspects of the current food security situation and the prospects for the coming twelve months with all relevant institutions in the Government and the Humanitarian Community, as well as with a large number of key informants and beneficiaries in the field. The food aid needs presented in this section, duly reviewed and endorsed by the Mission, are based upon the preliminary results of the vulnerability analysis exercise carried out during April/May by the Vulnerability Assessment Groups in 12 provinces. Members of these groups belong to Governmental Institutions, NGOs, and UN agencies. In each of the six provinces visited by the Mission the results of the VA Exercise were discussed with a wide range of NGOs and Government officials.

6.2 Food access for vulnerable groups

In general terms, agricultural production during the 2002/03 season has been better than last year, but despite the significant improvements in access to food, many groups are still subject to periods of hunger. In particular, people returning to their places of origin have faced serious obstacles in restoring agriculturally based livelihoods. Spontaneous returnees often arrive with very few assets and those assets that were abandoned during the conflict no longer exist. The majority of people travel by foot which limits their ability to take productive assets with them and as a general rule of thumb it can be said that “the longer the journey; the fewer the assets”.

Families that are returning to their homes after more than two years of displacement will take an average of five years to re-establish their households. Those who have established a household in one of the provincial capitals will probably maintain their household in the capital where social services (health and education) exist and use this as a base while re-establishing their household in their area of origin. In the first year, land rights will be re-established, a rudimentary shelter built and the first area for cultivation cleared and planted. The total area under cultivation will gradually be increased each year and in the third and fourth years the house will be completed so that permanent residence can be re-established. This pattern will vary according to the distance from the provincial capital, the length of displacement, the degree to which the area was abandoned etc. Land which has been abandoned for several years must be cleared before it can be cultivated and planted and the area of previously abandoned land which can be brought back into production each year is relatively small. It is not expected that returning households will reach a degree of food self-sufficiency until the second harvest after return, with no significant surpluses coming into the market until the third and fourth years. Hunting and gathering will be very important sources of food for these households during the re-establishment period.

Basic assets such as seeds and tools are essential to this process. Health and farming ability may also be a constraint for many returnees and the shortage of livestock available for animal traction has been cited as a constraint to preparing adequately sized fields in many areas with difficult soils. Small fields and inadequate inputs lead to very low production for many of the returnees.

During the 2002/03 season lack of inputs and late arrival of inputs in some cases contributed to low production of resettled families as well as returnees.

Cassava requires more that 12 months to reach maturity and anyone who planted for the first time after the cease-fire is still waiting for their first harvest. Conversely, farmers who were already harvesting cassava were not found to be among the vulnerable.

Although the market has reached all but the most isolated communities, commerce is limited in both quantity and content, with very little trade in agricultural products. Most areas are inaccessible to motor vehicles and the only means of transporting trade goods is on foot or by bicycle. In many cases, these communities do not yet have any surplus crops or cash that would be an incentive to traders. The high cost of transport is limiting the trade in agricultural commodities, which tend to be high volume, low value products with low profit margins per unit. These factors tend to limit trade in these areas to consumer items with a low weight and a high value (soap, cigarettes, beer etc). Large-scale trade in agricultural products tends to be confined to the areas which are easily accessible and which were not greatly affected by the war – provincial capitals, municipalities and across borders.

Perhaps the most positive food security aspect of the cease-fire was that many people regained access to natural resources. A resurgence of fishing was widespread. Hunting and honey collection was resumed. In particular, the collection of mushrooms and edible leaves played an important role in diets of returnees and resettled households.

In a few specific places, IDPs in desperate need of immediate food still exist. However, this situation is quickly becoming the exception rather than the norm. Many of the remaining IDPs are pursuing strategies for spontaneous return to their place of origin.

Although fewer than the returnees, residents in some places are also experiencing difficult access to food. These residents have usually been the victims of particularly complete looting of their assets or more severe violence. They are having similar problems in re-establishing their livelihoods as the returnees. Without access to inputs or labour, agricultural production for these families in the last season was also low.

6.3 Nutrition

The Vulnerability Assessment carried out in March-April indicated that in the areas where the humanitarian community has had access and supplementary and therapeutic feeding programmes are in place, surveys of the nutritional situation of children under five years continue to show relatively stable levels of malnutrition.

Global malnutrition rates have fallen, between 2001 and 2002, from 13 percent to 8 percent in Mavinga – Kuando Kubango, from 17 percent to 8 percent in Caconda – Huila, from 10 percent to 6 percent in Ganda – Benguela, from 14 percent to 5 percent in Kuito – Bie, and from 25 percent to 9 percent in Matala – Huila; in Chipindo (Huila) from May 2002 to February 2003, rates went down from 30 percent to 3 percent. It is further acknowledged that WFP general food distributions helped to stabilise the critical situation originally encountered in the quartering areas (such as 24 percent in Matungo in Kuando Kubango, or 19 percent in Matala-Tomba of Huila), although no subsequent nutritional survey was done in those areas before their dismantlement to give basis for comparison.

The decline in the level of primary health care provided by the public health services has had a direct impact on the vulnerability of households to food insecurity. Illness which leads to either a reduction of food intake and nutrient absorption (diarrhoea, malaria), or a temporary or permanent loss of household labour due to preventable and/or curable diseases e.g. TB, trypanosomiasis, HIV/AIDS, etc.

6.4 Medium-term prospects

The first major wave of return of displaced households took place during 2002 following the cease-fire. This consisted mainly of the households which had either been displaced during 2000 and 2001, or which were from areas which are relatively easily accessible to the provincial capitals or other secure areas. It is expected that they will require humanitarian assistance for one more year only – seeds, tools, some food assistance – before reaching a level of food security which will enable them to continue without support. A second major wave of returns and households is expected during 2003. This will consist of IDPs from more distant areas, refugees and the ex-UNITA soldiers and their families. Thus, many displaced families living in the provincial and municipal capitals, as well as a number of the Angolan refugees at present in Zambia, Namibia and Congo will return to their areas of origin before the beginning of the next planting season in October/November 2003 (some 170,000 of returning refugees). They will need support in the form of seeds, tools and food assistance during 2003/04 and 2004/05 in order to reach a level of self-sufficiency following the harvest of 2005. Subject to availability of resources, the humanitarian community will support these return movements through the distribution of food and non-food return packages to enable those families to restore their livelihood systems and achieve food security.

6.5 Population in need of food aid

At the time of the last Mission in May 2002, it was estimated that the number of people who would need assistance during 2002/2003 would be around 1.4 millions. According to the findings of the Mission the total number of people in need of food assistance during the period May 2003 – April 2004 will remain unchanged with respect to the previous period. The number is expected to fall sharply following the harvest of 2004 as the first wave of returnees reaches self-sufficiency, with significant numbers from the second wave continuing to require support until the harvest in 2005.

Although food aid interventions will essentially be of two types, "relief" and "recovery", the following tables divides the estimated numbers of beneficiaries into five different type of population groups which together represent the population in need of food assistance. This differentiation resulted from the on-going vulnerability analysis exercise and is used to define the current caseload of food aid beneficiaries which includes (i) IDPs – populations who arrived in their current location, not area of origin, after October 2001 and UNITA demobilised soldiers and their families who still reside in the quartering areas or in transit camps (11.4 percent); (ii) returnees – ex-IDPs; ex-refugees, or demobilised soldiers and their families that returned to their areas of origin (62 percent); (iii) resettled – ex-IDPs; ex-refugees, or demobilised soldiers and their families who resettled in areas which are not their areas of origin (5.1 percent); (iv) socially vulnerable groups – elderly, street children, orphans, handicapped, etc. (14.4 percent) and (v) the vulnerable residents, mainly in new accessible areas (6.4 percent).

Table 8 summarises the total number of persons who will need humanitarian assistance over the period 2003-2004, broken down by province and category of intervention.

Table 8 - Projected total number of food aid beneficiaries by Province and by category, 2003/2004

IDP: Internally Displaced Person; RET: Returnees; REA: Resettled; GSV: Socially Vulnerable Groups; RES-V: Vulnerable Residents.

The average monthly number of persons who will need humanitarian assistance over the coming year is 1 401 500.

An indicative full food basket needed to provide such assistance is shown in Table 9 below where coarse cereals (mainly maize) total 218 756 tonnes.

Table 9 - Food requirements for the total beneficiary caseload by category (tonnes)

IDP: Internally Displaced Person; RET: Returnees; REA: Resettled; GSV: Socially Vulnerable Groups; RES-V: Vulnerable Residents.

Out of the above-mentioned population in urgent need of assistance, WFP expects to reach a monthly average of 1 027 500 persons, which represents 73 percent of the total number. It is expected that the remainder will receive food aid through other food aid pipeline will direct assistance by GoA and bilateral donations through NGOs and GoA, such as contributions through the Consortium of US Private Voluntary Organisations, or ICRC and Euronaid for specific programmes.

The table below shows the breakdown of the estimated numbers of WFP beneficiaries by province and type of intervention.

Table 10 - Projected average number of food aid beneficiaries under WFPs pipeline, by Province and type of assistance, 2003/2004

IDP: Internally Displaced Person; RET: Returnees; REA: Resettled; GSV: Socially Vulnerable Groups; RES-V: Vulnerable Residents.

An indicative full food basket required to provide such an assistance is shown in Table 11 below where coarse cereals (mainly maize) total 161 081 tonnes.

Table 11 - Projected total food aid requirements for WFP Programme, 2003/2004, by commodity and by type of intervention (tonnes)

IDP: Internally Displaced Person; RET: Returnees; REA: Resettled; GSV: Socially Vulnerable Groups; RES-V: Vulnerable Residents.

A breakdown of projected average WFP assistance, by province and by commodity is shown in Table 12.

Table 12 - Breakdown of projected WFP assistance, 2003/04, by Province and by commodity (tonnes)

6.6 WFP strategy and methods of intervention

The coming 12 months are a transition period characterized by (1) very large population movements associated with return and resettlement, expected to continue until November-December 2003, and (2) great variation between provinces in security situation, agricultural potential and population movements.

WFP will continue to respond to emergency needs as they emerge, with the aim of saving lives and ensuring adequate nutritional status. The Angolan emergency is both chronic and structural, and the cumulative impacts of the conflict vary between areas. While some provinces continue to experience large influxes of population (e.g. Kuando Kubango), or are expected to receive an important share of returning IDPs (Huambo) or refugees (Moxico), other provinces enjoy relative stability (eg. Namibe). The recognition that the negative impacts of the conflict vary in degree across the country is reflected in WFP shifting its recovery approach to support return & resettlement initiatives targeted on the basis of geographical areas identified as being food vulnerable to food insecurity. Food assistance in rural return areas will be used to complement other initiatives. Emphasis will be placed on the creation of human and physical assets in order to contribute to the creation of adequate conditions for the long-term return of populations and the achievement of self-sufficiency.

Within its recovery component, WFP will provide support to return and resettlement in rural areas, through the provision of monthly food distributions for a limited period of time (usually until the first harvest) based on assessments. The rationale of this monthly food ration is to cover the basic needs of the returning rural populations while they re-establish their households and communities. It will enable them to engage in reconstruction and productive activities such as cultivation of land, planting, building of shelter etc, thus accelerating the establishment of productive, sustainable and stable livelihoods, a clear asset-building activity. Within the area of FFW/FFA, WFP interventions will focus on strategic partnerships with other UN agencies in food security related sectors. In partnership with FAO, WFP will take the lead in the food and agricultural production field. It will also take the lead with respect to access by beneficiaries to markets and social services. The priority setting of areas for these mutually reinforcing interventions will be based on vulnerability assessments of the communities as a whole, since the approach which WFP has adopted during the transition period (2002-2005) will remain targeting based on vulnerability criteria as established by the WFP VAM unit.

WFP assistance will be targeted through:

a) Relief Assistance to:

• Newly displaced IDPs, who arrived in secure areas after October 2001 and who did not have the opportunity to return to their areas of origin during 2002. These beneficiaries will receive support for a maximum of two agricultural seasons. By that time, it is expected that most displaced people would have been able to establish income-generating coping mechanisms, including agricultural activities and seasonal employment opportunities.

• Families of ex-UNITA combatants that have gathered in the Quartering Areas³.

• Severely and moderately malnourished individuals in therapeutic and supplementary feeding centres. These will include severely and moderately malnourished children under five, children from one to five at high risk of mortality and pregnant women/nursing mothers at risk of malnutrition. When the situation is acute, malnourished individuals over five will also be assisted.

• Families of children attending supplementary feeding centres will be supported with rations during the hunger gap period so as to sustain the nutritional status of the family members and to ensure adequate nutritional intake of the child after discharge from the centre.

• Children under five at risk of malnutrition will be assisted through self-targeting community kitchens.

• Individuals over five at risk of malnutrition will be assisted through community kitchens for which the MUAC screening will be the selection criterion.

b) Recovery Response through:

• Return packages to those displaced families and Angolan refugees that will return to their areas of origin.

• Resettlement packages to displaced families which choose to resettle in alternative areas.

• Seed protection rations to those families that will be particularly food insecure during the planting season.

• Food-for-work to food insecure families – not eligible for relief food distributions - in areas assessed as food insecure.

• Food-for-assets activities to support communities in the creation of sustainable assets, both human and physical, giving special attention to women’s needs for training and skills development.

6.7 Logistics

WFP maintains 12 provincial offices in Angola; including Luanda. This structure allows WFP to maintain and control a vast logistics network for the delivery of food assistance throughout the country.

Most food is imported through the three main seaports of Luanda, Lobito and Namibe. Limited quantities of cereals, salt and dried fish are locally purchased in Benguela and Huila provinces. For the next PRRO, the port of Lobito is expected to handle 56 percent of the food imports, Luanda 30 percent and Namibe 14 percent. From the ports the food is generally moved to WFP's primary/transit storage facilities in Luanda, Lobito and Lubango. About 10 percent of the food will be moved directly from the ports to the Extended Delivery points at the provinces.

The primary warehouses located in Luanda, Lobito and Lubango are rented commercially and their current respective capacities are Luanda at 19 000 tonnes, Lobito at 24 000 tonnes and Lubango at 6 000 tonnes. Warehousing at 12 WFP provincial offices is either commercially rented or provided by the Government. WFP maintains a stock of re-locatable storage units that can easily be erected anywhere in the country to cater for an increased need for storage space.

For provinces that are only accessible by air, WFP runs an air operation from Luanda airport and from the Catumbela airport (near Lobito) in Benguela province. The Lubango airport is also used as an air-bridge staging area as and when required.

Salt and fish are procured locally, and limited quantities of cereals have also been procured locally in the past.

Since the formal cessation of hostilities between UNITA and Angolan Government Forces on 4 April 2002, from a security point of view, access may now be possible to most parts of the country. Generally, road access from the coastal provincial capitals to provincial capitals in the interior is now possible to about one-half of the country, albeit with significant challenges posed by the poor state of infrastructure.

The four outlying provinces – Kuando Kubango, Moxico, Lunda Sul and Lunda Norte, and parts of Bie – which make up about 50 percent of the land area continue to be inaccessible by road or rail transport. On the basis of the provincial food aid needs, WFP is projecting that it would be able to deliver about 75–80 percent of food aid using surface transport means. The remaining 20-25 percent will have to be transported by air. These projections take into account infrastructure repairs that the Government of Angola is expected to undertake on key road arteries by the end of December 2003. Transport by road during the dry season is expected to be possible but difficult. However, the challenges will be amplified during the rainy season.

Access to the municipalities from the provincial capitals will continue to be challenging for several reasons: lack of commercial transport capacity; very poor road conditions; broken bridges; and/or the threat of land mines. The secondary and tertiary roads are not expected to be given priority in rehabilitation programs as they fall outside of the mandate of the central/national road authority.

In the medium term WFP expects that transport costs for long distance haulage will probably come down. However, given the expected increase in resettlement activities and the use of food as a resource to support the resettlement of populations at their municipalities (farther away from the provincial capitals), WFP’s secondary transport costs will increase.

1. See Section 6.4 for a fuller definition of these groups.

2. Economic data and estimations in this section are from The Economist Intelligence Unit reports on Angola and the mission’s own findings.

3. Locations agreed during the cease-fire negotiations where UNITA soldiers would gather for disarmament and demobilisation. The ex-UNITA troops were joined at these locations by their families.