1. Trends and convergence in the consumption of livestock products ^§

Appendix 1. - Results from estimating growth equations (equation in box 12 Bovine hides in India)

^§ Alicia Rambaldi provided helpful comments on this chapter but she is not responsible for any errors.

Grigg (1999) describes the average diet in Western Europe in the nineteenth century as one in which livestock products rarely provided more than 15 percent of total calorie intake. He explains that the French diet in the nineteenth century was similar to that in developing countries in the 1960s. The bottom half of the French population during the 1860s ate about 20 kg of meat each year, while the same group in England would have eaten barely 10 kg of meat (Smil 2000). Grigg (1999) goes on to outline how diets in Western Europe were transformed by a number of economic and technological changes. These were:

• a rapid growth in agricultural productivity that allowed production and consumption to outpace population growth, leading to a decline in the real price of food;

• an improvement in transport reduced the cost of moving foods, together with the introduction of refrigeration which allowed international trade in food to expand and;

• a growth in real incomes following industrialization.

It is interesting to note that Grigg (1999) appears to place substantial weighting to factors on the supply side since two of the three sets of factors mentioned are supply shifters.

In the 1960s, diets have changed in the developing countries of the Asia-Pacific region for reasons that are broadly similar to those that shaped Western European diets a century earlier. Increased agricultural productivity, increased incomes (reflecting an increased opportunity cost of time) and changes in life style such as increased urbanization were taking place at the same time as changes were occurring in the consumption of livestock products. Furthermore, just as cultural and historical factors have been influential in shaping the diets of western Europeans (Simoons 1978), cultural, religious and historical factors have also been important influences on Asian diets. For example, the followers of Islam in countries such as Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China do not consume pork, and the cow is regarded as sacred by India's Hindus, preventing the consumption of cow's flesh. Fish from certain sacred rivers in Bangladesh and from the klongs (canals) adjoining Thailand's Buddhist temples can not be eaten in those countries.[1] Kuntowijoyo (1991), cited in Mulyo (2000), explains that in Indonesia, the food that is consumed should be halal (allowed by religious teachings) as well as nutritious.

The data source

As noted already, the data presented in this chapter came from FAO. The data relate to supply per person and are derived from production in the country, net trade, change in stocks and waste. Data quality is a problem when examining agricultural markets in developing countries. Problems related to product quality as well as to the level of services embodied in the product makes analysing developed country markets also difficult. In a recent review of models from FAO, the United States Department of Agriculture and the International Food Policy Research Institute, McCalla and Revoredo (2001) pointed out that data problems are a "major cause of error" (p.25). There are a variety of reasons for the sometimes dubious quality of the data. Three of these will be mentioned here. First, the informal market for many agricultural commodities in developing countries is important. In India, for example, some commentators say 85 to 90 percent of the milk that is consumed is sold through informal channels. In Sri Lanka, the figure is said to be closer to 40 percent. Adulteration of milk is a major issue in Pakistan and this would create uncertainty as to the quantity of milk being consumed. A second reason is that livestock production by subsistence farmers is difficult to estimate. Village poultry and egg production, for example, is seldom recorded accurately and this would impact on estimates of food consumption by people living in villages. A third reason is that different agencies are usually involved in data collection and this makes quality control of the data problematic in at least some of the countries examined. (Box 2.3 in Chapter 2 describes the situation that has existed in China.) The data quality issue is an important qualification to the material that will be presented in this chapter.

Livestock as a source of protein

Animal protein based foods contain all of the essential amino acids needed to maintain the body. Recommended levels of protein consumption vary depending upon a range of factors including - but not limited to - age, body size and sex.[2] For example, some authorities say that for infants the recommended protein intake is 2 g per kg of bodyweight; for men and women, the recommended intake is 0.75 g per kg of body weight; while for pregnant women and lactating women protein needs are 6.75 g and 16.75 g per kg of bodyweight, respectively (Stanton 2001). According to Hussain (1992), protein intake should be 45.3 g per day. One third of this, Hussain (1992) contends, should come from livestock products. Smil (2000) is more cautious, and points out that finding a consensus on protein requirements is "an elusive task even after more than a century of relevant research" (p.228). Nonetheless, a consistent view of most writers is that livestock products can play a useful part in meeting protein requirements.

As well as being a source of protein of high biological value, livestock products provide micronutrients such as vitamin A and iron, both of which are important in preventing malnutrition. To meet average daily requirements for energy, iron and zinc, a child would need to eat 2 kg of corn and beans each day which is more than a child is physically able to do. The same amount is available in 60 g of meat (World Bank 2001). There are significant public health consequences associated with livestock consumption. Children who are malnourished are susceptible to viral, parasitic and bacterial infections (van der Zipf 1999); and toddlers whose diets include little animal protein do not perform as well on cognitive tests as children who do have animal protein in their diets (World Bank 2001). Too much protein can have undesirable health effects, interfering with calcium absorption, the functioning of the kidneys and leading to fat build-up. This tends to be a problem in the high-income countries of the west at the present time and it is emerging as a problem among certain groups in some of the developing countries.

There are differences between countries in the level of protein intake from livestock products as Table 1 shows. Protein consumption based upon livestock products was highest in 1999 in the four high-income countries (Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the Republic of Korea) and Mongolia. Protein from animal products was particularly high in Australia and New Zealand for all of the years shown in Table 1. Mongolia and Malaysia were the only countries among the developing country group where livestock based protein consumption was anything like the levels in the high income countries; for Malaysia this has only been the case since the mid-1990s. In the countries of South Asia, per person consumption of protein from livestock products was highest in 1999 in Pakistan at 22.2 g per person per day and lowest in Bangladesh at 5.9 g per person per day. In both of these countries, consumption of protein from livestock products has been relatively stable since the mid-1990s. Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar had the lowest levels of protein from livestock products, at less than 10 g per person per day in 1999. In all of these three countries, there is evidence that consumption has recently been increasing. The importance of livestock products as a source of protein has increased dramatically in Malaysia; since the mid-1970s, protein from livestock has almost doubled. Of the other countries in South-east Asia, Thailand and the Philippines had broadly similar levels of protein intake from livestock products although for Thailand the increase over the last decade has been more marked. Indonesia and Viet Nam are clearly on a lower level in terms of protein intake from livestock products but consumption in both countries has been increasing (Table 1).

Table 1 Protein consumption per person per day in grams derived from animal products

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	68.2	70.9	70.2	78.0	69.8	70.8	72.8	68.5	66.1
New Zealand	60.5	61.3	65.7	72.5	65.0	68.0	64.0	64.2	59.8
Japan	23.4	28.3	36.1	40.3	44.8	49.2	53.0	54.9	51.7
Korea, Rep. of	5.3	6.5	7.1	13.1	15.6	19.9	27.6	34.2	36.2
East Asia
China	3.5	5.7	5.4	6.4	7.4	10.2	14.2	23.6	28.9
Mongolia	61.2	56.1	53.6	54.4	50.2	43.4	47.9	46.9	50.5
South Asia
India	6.2	5.9	5.8	6.3	6.7	8.5	9.0	10.0	10.3
Nepal	7.6	7.7	7.8	8.4	8.6	9.2	9.1	8.8	9.1
Pakistan	13.8	14.1	13.9	13.9	14.4	15.3	17.8	20.7	22.2
Sri Lanka	8.8	9.4	9.3	7.7	9.9	10.0	9.8	11.8	13.0
Bangladesh	5.2	6.1	6.2	5.4	4.7	5.2	4.8	5.4	5.9
South-east Asia
Cambodia	4.2	5.7	7.4	7.1	3.3	7.5	8.7	8.6	8.2
Laos	5.2	6.4	7	5.3	6.6	6.4	6.6	8.8	8.9
Myanmar	8.3	8.1	7.6	7.6	8.4	9.4	8.2	8.5	9.4
Thailand	11.7	13.8	17.3	15.9	15.3	17.7	18.5	25.0	23.7
Malaysia	14.1	14.9	16.7	21.6	25.2	29.6	34.4	44.3	42.8
Viet Nam	8.9	10.0	9.7	7.9	7.3	9.0	9.6	13.5	14.6
Philippines	15.1	16.9	20.0	21.4	21.3	19.4	23.8	24.1	24.5
Indonesia	4.7	4.8	5.4	5.6	7.2	8.4	9.4	11.6	11.5

Source: calculated from FAO data

The importance of the different livestock products as a source of protein varies across countries. Turning first to bovine meat, the FAO statistics indicated that in five of the countries listed in Table 1, the importance of bovine meat as a source of protein was higher in 1999 than in 1961. The relative contribution of bovine meat in Japan and the Republic of Korea more than doubled, while it also increased dramatically in China albeit from very low levels in 1961. The other countries where the relative importance of bovine meat increased were Nepal and Laos. For the other countries, the role of bovine meat as a contributor to protein from livestock either stayed roughly the same (for example, Viet Nam, Australia and Malaysia) or declined (Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Thailand). It is apparent from the data in Table 2 that there is a great deal of variability across countries. Further, it seems that between 1961 and 1999 there has been no statistically significant change in the variability of the contribution made to protein by bovine meat.[3] There is a strong correlation between the contribution made by bovine meat to protein intake for the years shown in Table 2. This implies that countries where the contribution of bovine meat was high in one year were also countries where the contribution was high in other years. However, the strength of this correlation decreased over time. The correlation between the contribution made by bovine meat to protein consumption in 1961 and 1965 was 0.94, while the correlation between its contribution in 1961 and 1999 was 0.68[4]. This indicates that the changes taking place in the diets of the different countries in the region were not uniform.

Table 2 Bovine meat's percentage share of protein from the consumption of livestock products

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	23.0	27.9	24.6	34.6	28.9	26.0	24.6	22.8	24.4
New Zealand	25.3	28.1	25.1	26.3	26.3	19.0	19.5	19.5	18.6
Japan	2.6	2.8	3.0	3.5	4.2	4.7	6.2	8.0	7.5
Korea	5.7	7.7	5.6	6.9	5.8	8.0	8.0	10.2	11.6
East Asia
China	<0.01	1.8	1.9	1.6	1.4	2.0	2.1	4.7	5.2
Mongolia	27.6	22.6	24.3	23.0	24.3	22.8	20.5	22.6	24.4
South Asia
India	12.9	13.6	13.8	12.7	13.4	10.6	11.1	10.0	9.7
Nepal	18.4	19.5	19.2	21.4	24.4	28.3	27.5	27.3	26.4
Pakistan	12.3	12.1	12.2	11.5	11.1	11.1	11.8	11.1	9.9
Sri Lanka	13.6	14.9	12.9	15.6	8.1	8.0	6.1	5.9	4.6
Bangladesh	19.2	14.8	14.5	14.8	12.8	11.5	12.5	9.3	8.5
South-east Asia
Cambodia	23.8	17.5	21.6	15.5	24.2	17.3	18.4	20.9	20.7
Laos	17.3	15.6	18.6	15.1	15.2	20.3	21.2	23.9	28.1
Myanmar	12.0	13.6	14.5	13.2	13.1	11.7	12.2	10.6	9.6
Thailand	21.4	17.4	13.3	15.1	13.7	13.0	11.4	8.8	6.3
Malaysia	5.0	4.7	3.0	2.3	3.2	3.7	4.1	4.5	4.9
Viet Nam	6.7	7.0	7.2	7.6	8.2	8.9	8.3	5.9	5.5
Philippines	6.6	6.5	4.5	6.1	5.2	3.1	3.8	5.0	6.5
Indonesia	12.8	12.5	11.1	12.5	8.3	7.1	6.4	6.0	7.0

Source: calculated from FAO data

Poultry meat faces no major cultural, religious or social prejudices, unlike other meats[5]. This feature plus the high feed conversion efficiency of poultry - in particular chicken - means that poultry has played, and will continue to play, an important part in meeting future food needs. The average contribution of poultry meat to protein consumption for the countries under study increased from 4.2 percent in 1961 to 9.9 percent in 1999 (Table 3). It is obvious that the increases were across the board although it is also clear from the information in the table that in some countries (for example Viet Nam and China), there was substantial variability between years. The coefficient of variation calculated using the data for all countries in 1999 was 68 - less than the 86 calculated using the data for 1961. However, the variability in the contribution made by poultry meat to protein consumption as measured by the variance was not statistically different in 1961 from 1999[6]. As was the case for bovine meat, the correlation between the percentage contribution made by poultry meat to protein intake from livestock was positive, indicating that a high contribution by poultry meat in one year was associated with a high contribution in other years. The correlation between the contribution made by poultry meat in 1961 and in later years showed the same pattern as for bovine meat in that it fell over the years[7].

Table 3 Poultry meat's percentage share of protein from the consumption of livestock products

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	2.5	3.1	4.8	5.9	10.5	10.9	11.7	13.3	15.9
New Zealand	1.7	2.1	2.9	4.3	5.5	7.6	9.4	13.7	15.6
Japan	2.1	2.8	4.4	5.5	7.6	8.1	8.5	9.1	9.9
Korea, Rep. of	3.8	3.1	7.0	4.6	5.1	5.5	7.6	9.4	9.1
East Asia
China	8.6	5.3	7.4	6.3	6.8	5.9	7.0	9.7	10.7
Mongolia	0.2	0.2	<0.01	<0.01	0.2	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01
South Asia
India	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	1.5	1.2	1.1	2.0	1.9
Nepal	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.1	2.2	2.3	2.2
Pakistan	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.4	2.6	2.8	3.9	3.6
Sri Lanka	2.3	3.2	4.3	5.2	4.0	4.0	5.1	8.5	8.5
Bangladesh	1.9	3.3	4.8	3.7	4.3	3.8	4.2	5.6	5.1
South-east Asia
Cambodia	4.8	7.0	5.4	5.6	9.1	6.7	5.7	5.8	7.3
Laos	13.5	15.6	15.7	9.4	6.1	7.8	9.1	8.0	7.9
Myanmar	3.6	3.7	7.9	6.6	7.1	9.6	7.3	9.4	12.8
Thailand	10.3	10.1	12.1	15.1	15.7	15.8	17.3	19.2	19.8
Malaysia	7.8	10.7	13.2	13.9	12.7	16.9	19.8	25.1	28.3
Viet Nam	6.7	6.0	5.2	6.3	11.0	8.9	8.3	5.2	8.9
Philippines	4.6	5.3	4.5	5.1	7.5	6.2	5.5	8.3	10.2
Indonesia	4.3	4.2	3.7	3.6	5.6	7.1	9.6	12.9	9.6

Source: calculated from FAO data

Pigmeat is the most important source of animal protein in China and Viet Nam. In both countries, pigmeat provided over 30 percent of the protein intake sourced from livestock. Chinese pigmeat production has not kept pace with the growth in the output of other meats in China and this is reflected in the decline in relative importance of pigmeat in Chinese diets (Longworth, Brown and Waldron 2001). In the high-income group of countries, pigmeat's relative importance increased. This was most noticeable in the Republic of Korea where its percentage share of livestock based protein increased from negligible levels in the mid-1980s to just over 16 percent by 1999. In Australia and New Zealand, pigmeat consumption has been bolstered by its image among consumers, concerned about the health problems said to be associated with the consumption of red meat, as "the other white meat". Consumption of pigmeat in India and elsewhere through South Asia plays only a minor part in contributing to protein intake, reflecting religion (Bangladesh and Pakistan) and cultural factors (India, Sri Lanka and Nepal). The high apparent consumption of pigmeat in Indonesia is a puzzle given that Indonesia is primarily a Muslim country. The fact that several million Indonesians are of Chinese extraction - these people would be expected to have a strong preference for pork - along with the presence of other minorities whose religion does not prevent them consuming pork, goes part of the way to explaining the high level of pigmeat consumption. In Thailand and Malaysia, the percentage share of animal protein from pigmeat has been declining, reflecting the increased importance to consumers in both countries of poultry. The part played by pigmeat in the Philippines, Myanmar and Laos has been changeable, although for the Philippines at least it seems the relative importance of pigmeat as a source of animal protein has been increasing over the last ten years (Table 4).

Table 4 Pigmeat's percentage share of protein from the consumption of livestock products

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	3.7	3.8	4.7	4.0	5.3	5.6	6.2	6.9	7.1
New Zealand	5.5	5.5	4.6	3.6	4.5	5.4	5.2	5.9	7.7
Japan	2.6	3.9	5.3	6.7	8.0	7.7	8.1	8.4	8.9
Korea	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	13.0	15.2	16.3
East Asia
China	20.0	38.6	40.7	39.1	48.6	47.1	43.0	34.3	33.9
Mongolia	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.9	2.3	0.2	0.2
South Asia
India	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.2	2.2	2.0	1.9
Nepal	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.1	2.2	2.3	2.2
Pakistan	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01
Sri Lanka	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	1.0	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01
Bangladesh	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01
South-east Asia
Cambodia	11.9	21.1	23.0	14.1	6.1	24.0	21.8	25.6	29.3
Laos	23.1	26.6	18.6	22.6	24.2	20.3	24.2	21.6	21.3
Myanmar	4.8	4.9	10.5	7.9	8.3	7.4	4.9	5.9	6.4
Thailand	12.0	10.9	10.4	8.2	11.8	13.0	10.3	10.0	8.9
Malaysia	14.2	12.8	12.0	13.0	11.9	10.1	11.6	9.9	8.2
Viet Nam	24.7	22.0	19.6	20.3	23.3	32.2	34.4	31.1	35.6
Philippines	14.6	16.6	15.5	10.7	12.2	11.3	14.3	14.9	16.7
Indonesia	6.4	6.3	5.6	7.1	5.6	8.3	9.6	7.8	9.6

Source: calculated from FAO data

The average contribution that milk, in the form of drinking milk or milk based products, makes to protein intake from livestock products declined from 13.4 percent in 1961 to 12 percent in 1999 for the countries being studied[8]. The variability across countries was not different in a statistical sense in 1999 from the variability across countries in 1961[9]. It is clear that for the countries of South Asia, milk plays a much more important role in nutrition than in any of the other regions. In India, for example, milk has provided over 40 percent of the protein intake from livestock products, while in Nepal and Pakistan, milk's contribution was over 30 percent for each of the years shown in Table 5. Milk is an important source of calcium, and it would be difficult for a child to meet its calcium requirements relying only on a cereal-based diet (World Bank 2001). Smil (2000) points out that mammalian milk production is an inherently efficient energy conversion process. Feed/milk ratios for the most efficient dairy cows is less than 0.6, which means that between 55 and 67 percent of gross energy in the feed can end up as food energy in milk. He also points out that lactose intolerance (or lactase deficiency) affects people in the Asia-Pacific region. This has not been an insurmountable problem as the data in Table 5 suggest. The frequent consumption of small quantities of milk, rather than the consumption of a large amount at one time, and consumption of fermented dairy products causes few if any problems in populations characterised by lactose intolerance (Smil 2000).

Table 5 Milk's percentage share of protein from the consumption of livestock products

Country	1961		1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	21.0		20.2	19.8	16.7	15.6	16.7	16.6	18.5	14.1
New Zealand	16.7		12.6	22.4	22.9	20.3	25.6	22.3	8.3	9.9
Japan	6.4		8.1	8.3	7.9	8.0	7.5	8.1	7.7	7.4
Korea	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01	0.8	3.2	4.0	4.0	2.9	4.7
East Asia
China	5.7		3.5	3.7	3.1	2.7	2.9	3.5	2.5	2.4
Mongolia	10.6		16.0	16.0	14.2	13.3	13.4	13.4	18.6	21.6
South Asia
India	43.5	39.0		41.4	39.7	41.8	51.8	46.7	46.0	44.7
Nepal	48.7	46.8		46.2	45.2	39.5	34.8	33.0	33.0	33.0
Pakistan	39.1	38.3		39.6	38.1	34.7	34.0	33.7	32.4	40.1
Sri Lanka	17.0	22.3		19.4	20.8	24.2	23.0	23.5	22.0	23.8
Bangladesh	<0.01	<0.01		1.6	1.9	2.1	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01
South-east Asia
Cambodia	9.5	7.0		5.4	2.8	6.1	2.7	1.1	2.3	2.4
Laos	3.8	1.6		1.4	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	1.5	2.3	2.2
Myanmar	7.2	8.6		5.3	6.6	7.1	8.5	8.5	9.4	8.5
Thailand	3.4	2.9		1.2	0.6	0.7	1.7	2.2	3.2	4.2
Malaysia	11.3	8.7		5.4	5.1	11.5	6.8	4.1	3.6	3.7
Viet Nam	2.2	2.0		1.0	1.3	1.4	1.1	1.0	0.7	0.7
Philippines	4.0	2.4		3.0	1.4	1.9	1.5	2.9	1.7	1.6
Indonesia	4.3	4.2		3.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	3.2	2.6	2.6

Source: calculated from FAO data

Returning again to the data in Table 5, it was found that the correlation between the contribution made by milk to protein consumption in 1961 with the contribution it made in 1999 was almost the same as for 1961 and 1965 at around 0.90[10]. This indicates that for the years studied - spanning almost four decades - there has been a fair degree of stability in the relative importance of milk as a source of protein across countries.

Eggs are a key source of protein throughout the Asia-Pacific region. For the very poor people, particularly those living in rural areas, eggs usually from village flocks may be the only significant source of animal protein in their diets. Hence it would be expected that as income levels increase, the importance of eggs relative to other sources of animal protein would decrease. Data were not available for this study to verify this so we cannot be definite about this point. For China, Malaysia, Thailand and Japan, eggs represented 10 percent or more of the animal based protein consumed by the average person. Since 1990, the relative importance of eggs in the diet of the average Malaysian and the average Thai has declined. In Japan and in China, the importance of eggs has remained relatively constant over this period. On the other hand, in Australia and New Zealand, both high-income countries, the relative importance of eggs as a source of protein declined markedly since the 1970s.

Table 6 Egg's percentage share of protein from the consumption of livestock products

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	5.0	4.9	5.1	4.6	4.9	4.2	4.0	2.6	2.7
New Zealand	8.4	8.2	8.1	6.9	7.1	5.6	5.6	4.5	5.9
Japan	12.0	14.5	14.4	12.2	11.6	10.8	11.1	11.3	11.6
Korea, Rep of	7.5	10.8	16.9	10.7	12.8	11.1	9.4	8.5	8.0
East Asia
China	17.1	10.5	11.1	10.9	10.8	14.7	14.1	16.9	17.0
Mongolia	<0.01	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	<0.01	<0.01
South Asia
India	1.6	1.7	1.7	3.2	3.0	4.7	4.4	4.0	3.9
Nepal	2.6	2.6	3.8	3.6	3.5	2.2	3.3	3.4	3.3
Pakistan	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	1.4	2.8	2.6	2.8	2.9	2.7
Sri Lanka	3.4	4.3	4.3	3.9	6.1	6.0	8.2	5.9	5.4
Bangladesh	1.9	3.3	3.2	3.7	4.3	3.8	4.2	3.7	6.8
South-east Asia
Cambodia	4.8	3.5	4.1	4.2	9.1	4.0	3.4	3.5	1.2
Laos	1.9	1.6	2.9	5.7	4.5	4.7	3.0	2.3	4.5
Myanmar	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.6	3.6	12.8	9.8	9.4	8.5
Thailand	24.8	20.3	15.0	15.1	15.0	13.6	17.8	12.0	12.7
Malaysia	5.0	9.4	12.0	11.6	11.5	10.8	12.2	9.9	10.0
Viet Nam	5.6	5.0	4.1	3.8	4.1	3.3	4.2	3.7	4.1
Philippines	5.3	4.7	5.0	6.5	7.5	6.7	7.6	7.5	9.8
Indonesia	2.1	2.1	3.7	3.6	5.6	7.1	7.4	7.8	5.2

Source: calculated from FAO data

The variability in the role played by eggs as a protein source across countries appears to becoming less pronounced. This is indicated by the finding that there was a statistically significant difference in the variance of the contribution made by eggs to animal protein intake in 1999 and in 1961. The coefficient of variation was also less (66 in 1999 compared with 105 in 1961), suggesting again that the importance of eggs as an animal protein source was becoming more similar across countries over time.

Mutton and goat meat is important as a source of animal protein in Mongolia and also in New Zealand. It also plays a role to some degree in Australia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. However, for the countries of South-east Asia, FAO statistics indicate that mutton and goat meat is of very minor importance. It is interesting to note nonetheless that aid programmes have been put in place to increase the production of mutton and goat meat. (One of these programmes is described in Box 14 in Chapter 4 of this report). The contribution of mutton and goat meat to the animal protein component of diets in Laos, Thailand and Viet Nam for most years included in this analysis was less than a tenth of a percent on average. FAO statistics indicate that the importance of mutton and goat meat is declining. The average contribution of these meats to the animal protein component of the diet in the countries shown in Table 7 fell from 5.8 percent in 1961 to 4.6 percent in 1999. Variability across countries in the proportion of animal protein coming from mutton and goat meat was not significantly different in a statistical sense between 1961 and 1999 (Table 7).

Table 7 The percentage share of mutton and goat meat in protein from the consumption of livestock products

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975		1980	1985	1990	1995		1999
High-income countries
Australia	22.6	18.2	17.9	11.3		9.7	11.2	10.6	8.9		8.2
New Zealand	23.3	22.2	20.5	17.4		16.3	13.4	15.9	18.5		16.1
Japan	0.4	0.7	1.1	1.0		0.4	0.4	0.4	0.2		0.2
Korea, Rep. of	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	0.8		<0.01	0.5	0.4	0.3		0.3
East Asia
China	2.9	1.8	1.9	1.6		2.7	2.0	2.8	2.1		2.8
Mongolia	34.5	33.5	38.4	39.3		39.8	40.3	40.5	33.7		31.7
South Asia
India	4.8	6.8	5.2	3.2		4.5	3.5	3.3	3.0		2.9
Nepal	7.9	10.4	9.0	8.3		9.3	7.6	7.7	9.1		7.7
Pakistan	5.8	6.4	7.2	8.6		9.7	10.5	10.1	11.1		6.8
Sri Lanka	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.3		1.0	1.0	<0.01	0.8		<0.01
Bangladesh	3.8	3.3	3.2	3.7		2.1	3.8	6.3	7.4		6.8
South-east Asia
Cambodia	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01
Laos	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01
Myanmar	<0.01	1.2	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01	1.1	1.2		1.2	1.1
Thailand	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01
Malaysia	1.4	0.7	0.6		0.5	0.8	0.3	0.6		0.5	0.5
Viet Nam	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01		<0.01	<0.01
Philippines	<0.01	<0.01	0.5		0.5	0.5	1.0	0.8		0.8	0.8
Indonesia	2.1	2.1	1.9		3.6	1.4	2.4	2.1		1.7	1.7

Source: calculated from FAO data

Livestock as a source of calories and fat

Food availability is sometimes measured in terms of calories per person. At the global level, food availability per person increased from 2 300 kcal per day in the early 1960s to over 2 700 kcal per day in the 1990s. In East Asia, kilocalories per day averaged 1 750 in 1961-63 and in South Asia 2 030. By the early 1990s, availability had grown to 2 670 kcal in East Asia and 2 300 in South Asia. Some of the changes were dramatic: in China for example, per person food supplies in 1961 to 1963 averaged 1 659 kcal, while by the early 1990s, availability had increased to 2 713 kcal. Calorie supplies are projected by FAO to be 3 030 kcal per person in East Asia for 2010 and 2 450 kcal for South Asia. Livestock products are expected by most analysts to continue to have a major part in achieving these increases.

Of the developing countries shown in Table 8 and Table 9, the one that came closest to Australia and New Zealand in terms of calories and fat in the diet derived from livestock products is Mongolia. The calorie intake from livestock products of the average Mongolian in 1991 was 876.9 kcal per day compared with 960.9 kcal per day in Australia and 1 112.2 kcal per day in New Zealand. Rapid growth has been occurring in China - the 1999 level of 567.4 kcal per day was over 10 times the level in 1961. In the other countries, the 1999 level was usually only two to three times the 1961 level at most.

Table 8 Kilocalories per person per day derived from animal products

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	1253.6	1232.0	1223.3	1193.6	1052.5	1071.2	1116.8	1031.6	960.9
New Zealand	1209.0	1273.0	1312.6	1397.4	1308.1	1332.6	1270.8	1112.2	1048.4
Japan	238.5	316.3	418.7	460.6	517.8	559.0	593.4	606.7	574.2
Korea, Rep. of	46.2	62.7	91.4	155.9	176.4	227.7	323.5	411.5	438.5
East Asia
China	55.4	115.6	111.4	132.9	172.0	232.4	307.0	465.0	567.4
Mongolia	1050.2	991.8	998.9	1 021.90	943.5	832	915.1	834.0	876.9
South Asia
India	113.4	103.9	100.6	109.3	117.6	154.8	163.7	181.2	191.8
Nepal	146.9	146.9	150.1	159.4	158.6	160.1	160.9	154.4	160.2
Pakistan	272	276.6	273.6	271.5	273.6	288.1	335.5	389.5	429.2
Sri Lanka	100.9	113.4	107.3	89.0	116.1	117.9	113.6	139.9	150.3
Bangladesh	61.5	67.9	68.3	61.1	56.0	60.0	59.8	62.0	66.5
South-east Asia
Cambodia	58.4	88.4	119.6	90.6	42.2	119.8	131.1	144.8	148.2
Laos	86.5	108.4	102.7	79.6	104.6	96.7	109.4	139.9	139.8
Myanmar	92.3	97.8	96.3	93.6	105.1	119.5	95.4	101.8	116.8
Thailand	170.6	184.1	211.7	188.4	199.5	235.0	240.1	309.7	286.4
Malaysia	251.4	265.1	295.3	346.8	406.3	431.1	490.1	614.7	562.8
Viet Nam	138.6	146.1	135.9	112.3	112.7	160.7	173.7	236.8	272.1
Philippines	196.2	222.0	256.4	238.0	253.0	213.2	296.7	311.4	345.1
Indonesia	50.2	51.2	55.2	57.8	73.8	93.4	108.6	128.6	132.1

Source: calculated from FAO data

The situation with regard to livestock products as a source of fats was similar to that with regard to livestock as a source of kilocalories. Australia and New Zealand consumers obtained 66.2 and 83.4 g of fat per day on average, respectively, from livestock products. For consumers in both countries, there has been a substantial decline since the 1960s, reflecting concerns about the effects on health of a high level of animal products in the diet (Smith and Riethmuller 2000). In Nepal and Bangladesh, the increase in fat per person from livestock products was only slight and average consumption remained at low levels, while for Mongolia there was a decline from 83.2 g per person per day in 1961 to 65.9 g per person per day in 1999. For the other countries in Table 9, the movement has been in the opposite direction, with 1999 consumption of fat from livestock often substantially higher than in the 1960s. For the average person living in China, intake of fat from animal products increased more than tenfold between 1961 and 1999 from just over 4 g per day to over 48 g per day. This is well above the average consumption of fats from animal products in Japan and in the Republic of Korea. It is also the highest percentage increase for any of the countries shown in Table 9. The expansion of western style fast food restaurants in the Asia-Pacific region has attracted some criticism. In Thailand, for example, critics have pointed the finger at fast food restaurants for contributing to obesity problems among the children of the middle and upper income earners living in urban areas (see for example Malisuwan 1997 and Paengnoy 2001).

Table 9 Fat per person per day in grams derived from animal products

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	95.2	91.3	90.9	84.2	73.8	74.8	78.2	70.7	66.2
New Zealand	98.1	105.9	105.0	109.8	106.0	104.8	102.1	89.6	83.4
Japan	13.4	19.2	25.9	28.6	32.2	34.6	36.2	36.8	35.0
Korea, Rep. of	2.5	3.6	6.5	10.3	10.8	14.0	20.7	27.1	28.7
East Asia
China	4.3	9.9	9.6	11.5	15.3	20.5	26.8	39.5	48.2
Mongolia	83.2	77.5	79.6	81.9	76.1	67.5	73.1	64.3	65.9
South Asia
India	7.6	7.0	6.7	7.3	7.8	10.5	11.0	12.2	12.9
Nepal	10.2	10.2	10.5	11.1	11.1	11.0	11.3	10.8	11.2
Pakistan	18.6	18.9	18.8	18.6	18.6	19.7	23.1	27.0	29.3
Sri Lanka	5.6	6.4	6.0	4.9	6.5	6.6	6.3	8.1	8.2
Bangladesh	3.7	3.9	3.9	3.6	3.4	3.3	3.4	3.6	3.8
South-east Asia
Cambodia	3.9	6.5	9.3	6.5	2.7	9.6	10.2	11.5	12.2
Laos	6.7	8.7	7.8	6.3	8.2	7.7	8.8	10.8	10.8
Myanmar	5.1	5.6	6.5	6.4	7.1	8.1	6.1	6.6	7.7
Thailand	11.9	12.4	14.2	12.7	14.2	16.8	16.8	20.8	19.0
Viet Nam	11.0	11.2	10.0	8.4	8.9	13.3	14.5	19.2	22.9
Philippines	13.4	15.6	17.8	15.3	16.6	13.4	20.3	21.7	25.5
Indonesia	3.2	3.3	3.3	3.6	4.4	6.0	7.3	8.3	8.6

Source: calculated from FAO data

The information thus far presented has discussed the contribution of the various livestock products to protein, carbohydrates and calorie intake. The next part of this chapter will briefly outline the annual consumption of different livestock products to complete the picture on livestock product consumption. The country coverage is slightly expanded to include Brunei Darussalam and the Democratic Republic of Korea (Korea, DPR).

The consumption of livestock products

People living in Australia, New Zealand and Mongolia had by far the highest average consumption of bovine meats. In Australia, consumption was 42.4 kg per person in 1999, much the same level of consumption as in 1961. Australian consumption peaked at over 70 kg per person in the mid-1970s when Japan, a major export market for Australian beef, closed that market to imports to protect elements of the Japanese industry. Much of this beef went onto the Australian market, driving down prices and increasing the quantity consumed. Since then, per person consumption in Australian has fallen. New Zealand consumption has tended to follow the same path as Australia's albeit at a lower level. Per person consumption in Mongolia started off at about the same level as that in Australia and New Zealand, but by1999 it had fallen to just over 32 kg per person. In the two most populated countries in the Asia-Pacific region - India and China - consumption of bovine meats increased, but by substantially different amounts. China's per person consumption in 1999 (4 kg) was 400 times consumption in 1961 (0.1 kg). In India, the increase over the same period was much more modest - from 2.3 kg per person in 1961 to 2.7 kg per person in 1999. In South-east Asia, consumption increased between 1961 and 1999 in all countries, with the exception of Thailand where per person consumption declined (Table 10).

Table 10 Per person consumption of bovine meat, kg per year

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	41.2	52.0	45.4	71.0	53.1	48.3	47.1	42.2	42.4
New Zealand	44.0	49.8	47.6	54.7	49.1	37.2	36.1	38.9	32.0
Japan	1.5	2.1	2.9	3.5	4.9	6.1	8.4	10.3	9.9
Korea, Rep. of	0.8	1.4	1.2	2.4	2.5	4.1	5.8	10.0	11.4
East Asia
China	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.9	2.9	4.0
Mongolia	44.6	33.4	34.1	33.0	32.1	26.2	26.0	31.8	32.4
Korea, DPR	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.6	1.8	2.0	1.8	1.1	0.9
South Asia
Bangladesh	2.3	2.2	2.2	1.9	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.2	1.3
India	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.5	2.8	2.7	2.7
Nepal	4.0	4.2	4.3	5.2	6.2	7.8	7.5	7.3	7.4
Pakistan	4.8	4.7	4.7	4.6	4.7	4.9	6.1	6.4	6.4
Sri Lanka	3.0	3.4	3.0	2.8	2.0	2.1	1.5	1.6	1.5
South-east Asia
Brunei Darussalam	8.1	9.1	9.0	8.5	12.1	14.9	16.6	12.9	17.9
Cambodia	2.5	2.5	4.0	2.8	2.1	3.3	4.0	4.5	4.3
Indonesia	1.6	1.6	1.7	1.9	1.7	1.7	1.7	2.1	2.0
Laos	2.7	2.9	4.0	2.1	3.1	3.9	4.1	5.8	7.3
Malaysia	2.2	2.1	1.7	1.7	2.3	3.0	3.6	5.4	5.2
Myanmar	2.7	3.0	2.9	2.8	2.9	3.0	2.6	2.6	2.6
Philippines	2.4	2.8	2.3	3.2	2.8	1.6	2.3	3.4	4.2
Thailand	7.2	7.0	6.7	6.7	6.0	6.4	5.8	5.5	3.9
Viet Nam	1.9	2.0	2.1	1.9	1.9	2.4	2.5	2.4	2.3

Source: FAO

Table 11 shows per person consumption of pigmeat in China in 1999 was 32 kg. This was more than 10 kg ahead of the average consumption in the Republic of Korea, the country with the second highest average consumption of pigmeat in 1999. Per person pigmeat consumption in South Asia was low: the average Indian and Nepalese, for example, consumed 0.6 kg and 0.5 kg in 1999, respectively. Nonetheless, this was higher than the consumption figure in Sri Lanka of only 0.1 kg per person in 1999. Consumption in all of the high-income countries increased, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the Republic of Korea. Throughout the countries of South-east Asia, consumption per person also increased. Viet Nam and the Philippines had the highest average consumption in 1999 - 17.0 and 13.5 kg per person, respectively. Both countries had similar level of consumption to one another in 1961.

Table 11 Per person consumption of pigmeat, kg per year

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	10.30	10.80	13.40	12.50	14.80	16.30	18.40	19.40	19.30
New Zealand	15.10	15.30	13.30	11.30	11.60	14.90	13.80	16.10	19.20
Japan	2.10	4.00	7.10	10.30	13.40	14.10	15.20	17.40	17.30
Korea, Rep. of	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	<0.01	12.50	18.00	20.70
East Asia
China	2.30	7.30	7.10	8.30	11.80	16.00	20.20	26.70	32.30
Mongolia	0.30	0.50	0.20	0.40	0.60	1.20	3.60	0.20	0.40
Korea, DPR	4.20	4.30	5.90	7.80	9.60	10.50	11.40	5.40	6.10
South Asia
India	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.40	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.60
Nepal	0.30	0.30	0.40	0.40	0.40	0.40	0.50	0.50	0.60
Sri Lanka	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10
South-east Asia
Brunei Darussalam	4.80	5.40	3.70	3.50	4.40	6.00	4.30	11.00	8.10
Cambodia	1.70	3.80	5.60	3.40	0.80	6.00	6.30	7.20	8.00
Indonesia	1.00	1.10	1.10	1.00	1.20	2.20	3.00	2.90	3.60
Laos	4.00	5.50	4.40	4.00	5.20	4.40	5.30	6.10	6.10
Malaysia	6.70	6.30	6.60	9.30	9.90	9.90	13.20	14.50	11.70
Myanmar	1.10	1.40	2.30	2.00	2.30	2.20	1.40	1.60	2.10
Philippines	7.40	9.20	10.10	7.70	8.60	7.30	11.20	11.80	13.50
Thailand	4.70	4.80	5.80	4.30	5.80	7.50	6.10	8.30	6.80
Viet Nam	7.20	7.20	6.30	5.10	5.50	9.40	10.80	13.70	17.00

Source: FAO

Poultry meat consumption rose in all countries between 1961 and 1999, except for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (Korea, DPR) and Mongolia. In both of these countries, consumption was low in 1961 at 1.4 kg per person in Korea, DPR and 0.2 kg per person in Mongolia. Per person consumption in Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam has been broadly similar to that in Australia and New Zealand. In these latter two high-income countries, the growth in the consumption of poultry has been particularly dramatic. As noted elsewhere in this report, this reflects demand side factors (concerns by consumers about the negative health effects said to be associated with red meat) and supply side factors (falling real poultry prices due to technical developments in production and processing). Average consumption in Indonesia in 1999 was double that for 1980 when it was 1.2 kg per person. Indonesia's growth in poultry consumption has been curtailed by the decline in economic condition in Indonesia since the financial crisis of the late 1990s. In fact, the data indicate that Indonesia's per person consumption in 1999 was lower than per person consumption in 1995. It is probable that the decline was primarily due to production being cut by the large poultry producers in response to higher feed prices caused by the fall in value of the Indonesian Rupiah. These producers are heavily reliant on imported feed grains. Obviously, demand would also have been lowered by the decline in Indonesian incomes that occurred as a result of the crisis. It is interesting to note that in the other countries of the region most harmed by the crisis - Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and the Republic of Korea - average consumption of poultry meat did not decline over the period 1995 to 1999.

Table 12 Per person consumption of poultry meat, kg per year

Country	1961	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1999
High-income countries
Australia	4.8	6.3	9.8	13.3	21.0	22.0	24.3	26.2	30.2
New Zealand	2.8	3.7	5.3	8.8	10.2	15.0	17.3	25.1	26.9
Japan	1.4	2.1	4.7	6.7	10.0	11.8	13.5	14.7	14.8
Korea, Rep. Of	0.6	0.7	1.4	1.6	2.4	3.2	6.2	9.3	9.9
East Asia
China	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.8	3.2	7.0	9.7
Mongolia	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1
Korea, DPR	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.7	1.9	2.0	2.4	1.0	1.1
South Asia
Bangladesh	0.4	0.6	0.9	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.8
India	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6
Nepal	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.6
Pakistan	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.5	2.5	2.3
Sri Lanka	0.6	1.0	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.2	1.4	3.0	3.1
South-east Asia
Brunei Darussalam	4.5	6.7	10.0	16.3	21.9	22.3	27.6	31.3	28.4
Cambodia	0.7	0.9	1.2	1.2	0.9	1.6	1.7	1.7	2.0
Indonesia	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.7	1.2	1.9	2.8	4.4	3.4
Laos	2.0	2.9	3.4	1.4	1.3	1.6	1.7	2.2	2.1
Malaysia	3.5	4.9	6.9	9.3	10.1	15.5	20.7	33.7	36.5
Myanmar	0.9	1.1	1.8	1.6	2.0	3.0	2.0	2.6	3.7
Philippines	2.2	2.6	2.6	3.2	4.7	3.5	4.0	6.1	7.4
Thailand	3.3	4.1	5.8	7.0	7.1	8.3	9.4	13.7	13.9
Viet Nam	1.9	2.1	1.6	1.7	2.7	2.5	2.4	2.4	4.2

Source: FAO