MOZAMBIQUE (13 June)
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission that visited Mozambique in April/May 2003 estimated cereal production of the 2002/03 production season at 1.8 million tonnes, some 2.5 percent above last year’s level. This includes 1.2 million tonnes of maize which remained around last year’s good harvest. More than half of the cereal grain (56 percent) was produced in the central provinces, 38 percent in the north and only 6 percent in the drought-affected south. Cassava output is forecast at 6.1 million tonnes, an increase of 3.8 percent over last year. However, in most of southern and some of central provinces prolonged dry spells and high temperatures during the season resulted in almost total failure of the maize crop. Elsewhere, the situation was normal in Zambezia (centre) and in all of the northern provinces, where a bumper harvest has been obtained.
The skewed distribution of cereal production between regions will translate into serious food shortages in southern provinces and abundant supplies in the north and centre. Cereal prices at the end of marketing year 2002/03 were below their levels of a year ago but they were significant higher in southern markets. Prices are expected to remain depressed in the north, but to rise in the south reflecting surplus and deficit situations. High internal transport costs to move the maize crop from the north to the south, coupled with reduced export opportunities due to improved cereal harvests in neighbouring Zambia and Malawi, are likely to result in large stocks in the northern and central regions. The shortfall in the south and part of the centre is expected to be covered by food aid and commercial imports.
The Mission estimates that 949 000 people in 40 districts of southern and central Mozambique will require food aid through March 2004, due to the almost total failure of the 2003 harvest as a result of drought, the cumulative effect of four reduced harvests, the prevalence of animal diseases, the impact of chronic illness and HIV/AIDS, and structural economic constraints. This population represents 30 percent of the total population of the two regions but only 5 percent of the country’s total population. Most of the food aid requirement will have to be imported due to the current marketing problems, but the Mission recommends that efforts should be placed on local purchases in the North and Centre to support farmers in these regions.