FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No. 5 - Rome, December 2001 p. 10

Cereal food aid shipments could increase slightly in 2001/02

Cereal food aid contracted in 2000/01

Shipments of non-cereal food aid fell sharply in 2000

Food Aid^1/

Cereal food aid shipments could increase slightly in 2001/02

Preliminary indications point to an increase in total cereal food aid shipments in 2001/02 (July/June) to 9.5 million tonnes (in grain equivalent), up 1 million tonnes from 2000/01. This increase is likely to be met mainly by higher shipments from the United States and Japan, while Pakistan and India, usually among food aid recipient countries, could also emerge as donors this season. The anticipated increase in food aid shipments can be partly explained by larger needs in Afghanistan, but concerns over weak international prices and relatively large stocks in some countries could also be considered as important factors.
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1/ More detailed statistics on cereal and non-cereal food aid shipments are available on the internet as part of the FAO World Wide Web at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org under Statistical Database and then All Databases.

Cereals - Food Aid Shipments by destination- (July/June)

Source: WFP
Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

While the overall global food situation is generally better than in the previous season, many countries continue to face emergencies and demand for food aid remains strong. In particular, food aid shipments to Afghanistan are expected to increase sharply this season. Even before the start of the military operations, Afghanistan was gripped by critical food crisis following three consecutive years of severe drought. In early October, the World Food Programme (WFP) announced plans to deliver 52 000 tonnes of food aid per month to feed the most vulnerable people. Among other countries in Asia, food aid flows to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Bangladesh are expected to remain substantial, although less than in the previous year.

In Africa, despite better harvests in several countries, civil strife and localized crop failures in many areas keeps food aid needs at high levels and food shortages continue to persist. In early November, Zimbabwe, a country that normally meets its own import requirements through commercial purchases, appealed for assistance from the international community and could receive food aid this year. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the food situation remains precarious in many parts, mostly because of natural disasters; and shipments to several countries, including Honduras, Cuba, Peru and Nicaragua are expected to exceed the previous year's levels.

Cereal food aid contracted in 2000/01

According to the latest information supplied by the WFP, total cereal shipments in 2000/01, under programme and project food aid as well as emergency food aid, amounted to 8.5 million tonnes (in grain equivalent), nearly 3 million tonnes, or 24 percent, smaller than in 1999/2000 (table A.10), largely because of a sharp cut back in shipments to the Russian Federation. Even at this reduced level, food aid shipments by major donors exceeded the "minimum commitments", agreed under the 1999 Food Aid Convention (FAC). It should be noted that the 1999 FAC sets the global minimum "guaranteed annual tonnage" at around 5 million tonnes (in wheat equivalent). As in the previous season, emergency food aid constituted about one-half of the total shipments.

The decline in cereal food aid shipments in 2000/01 was most pronounced in terms of wheat, which fell by about 2.6 million tonnes. Coarse grain shipments also declined, by over 400 000 tonnes. By contrast, those of rice rose by more than 300 000 tonnes. Total cereal shipments as food aid to the Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs), as a group, fell slightly in 2000/01, to 7.4 million tonnes or some 160 000 tonnes smaller than in 1999/2000. Largest declines were registered for Bangladesh (260 000 tonnes), Ethiopia (250 000 tonnes), Indonesia (177 000 tonnes), India (172 000 tonnes) and Rwanda (127 000 tonnes). However, shipments to several countries also increased; namely, to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (651 000 tonnes), Kenya (204 000 tonnes) and Eritrea (130 000 tonnes).

Non Cereals - Food Aid Shipments by type

Source: WFP
Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

Cereal food aid from the United States fell by around 2.5 million tonnes in 2000/01 to 4.7 million tonnes; shipments to the Russian Federation fell from 1.9 million tonnes provided in 1999/2000 to only 127 000 tonnes. However, even at this reduced level, the United States was the largest donor, contributing to more than 55 percent of global shipments in 2000/01. Cereal aid shipments from a number of other major donors, including the EC and Canada, also registered a sharp decline in 2000/01. The fall from the EC was most pronounced, as total shipments declined by over 33 percent, to 1.5 million tonnes. Most of the decline was associated with lower shipments to the Russian Federation and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. By contrast, shipments from Japan rose by more than two-fold, to 720 000 tonnes, largely because of increased shipments of rice to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Shipments of non-cereal food aid fell sharply in 2000

Following a surge to a near record volume in 1999, total shipments of non-cereals as food aid in 2000(January-December)^1/ fell to 1.2 million tonnes, representing a decline of 700 000 tonnes, or 38 percent. Most of the decline was due to a sharp reduction in shipments from the United States to the Russian Federation, which more than offset larger aid contributions from Canada and several countries in Europe. Total shipments of non-cereals to the Russian Federation soared to over 1 million tonnes in 1999, but then fell to 93 000 tonnes in 2000. Total shipments to the LIFDCs, as a group, exceeded 890 000 tonnes, up 32 percent from 1999. This increase reflected larger shipments to several countries, including Indonesia (72 000 tonnes), Ethiopia (48 000 tonnes), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (28 000 tonnes), Eritrea (22 000 tonnes) and Yemen (12 000 tonnes).

Non Cereals - Food Aid Shipments by type

Source: WFP
Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.

Smaller shipments of pulses accounted for most of the reduction in total non-cereal donations in 2000. Pulse shipments were halved to 586 000 tonnes from 1.2 million tonnes in 1999, as shipments to the Russian Federation fell from 750 000 tonnes in 1999 to only 32 000 tonnes in 2000. The shipments of meat (including meat products), another important non-cereal food aid category, also contracted in 2000. Overall, the volume of meat as food aid increased from

4 000 tonnes in 1998 to 234 000 tonnes in 1999 but then fell to 25 000 tonnes in 2000. Similar to the pulse situation, the decline in meat shipments was mostly related to a reduction in food aid to the Russian Federation.
By contrast, food aid shipments of vegetable oils rose to a 7-year high in 2000 to around 377 000 tonnes, up 18 percent from 1999. As many as 100 countries around the world receive vegetable oils in the form of food aid. The largest recipients in 2000 include Peru (72 428 tonnes), the Russian Federation (39 818 tonnes), Ethiopia (39 805 tonnes), India (22 397 tonnes), Madagascar (19 490 tonnes), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (19 113 tonnes). Higher shipments to Peru, the Russian Federation and Ethiopia accounted for the bulk of the rise in total shipments in 2000.

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1/ While cereal shipments are reported on a July/June basis, non-cereals food aid is reported on a calendar year basis.

Non Cereals - Food Aid Shipments by Destination

Source: WFP
Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.